Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

I don’t subscribe but NAM tweeted the Cubs have four on their

 

They’ll graduate one of them this month:

 

15. Brennen Davis

32. Seya Suzuki

79. Cristian Hernández

95. Pete Crow-Armstrong

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hello

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1523193511205502977?s=21&t=03x3eUAMbFxkNIt9iUZ0oQ

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/billazbbphotog/status/1523743447504416769?t=JO9IRnqo3xxAjQTnVXCmMA&s=19

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

Roederer is definitely taking his spot right? Maybe it's PCA too, but Cole's essentially 100% likely to be in South Bend tomorrow I'd think?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not good. Just hoping it’s not a long term issue: https://theathletic.com/3308634/2022/05/12/cubs-prospects-ed-howard-and-brennen-davis-sidelined-with-injuries-a-reminder-player-development-isnt-a-smooth-process/?redirected=1

 

Ed Howard, the talented Chicago shortstop the Cubs drafted with their 2020 first-round pick, is sidelined with a significant hip injury, according to sources familiar with the situation. While it might be premature to label this as a season-ending injury — one source cautioned the organization is still waiting for more clarity on a timetable and the course of action — this will curtail the development of a prospect who had just seemed to be finding his rhythm at High-A South Bend.

[Bertz]

40 Man/Rule 5 implications are going to be a big deal over the next 7 months, and I'm very curious to see.

 

- When counting 60 Day/COVID IL guys, the Cubs have 47 guys on the 40 man right now

- 10 are in their walk years

- 3 are chaff that are only up right now because of the crazy injury spree (Vargas, Leiter, Mendez)

- Schwindel, Frazier, Ortega, Hermosillo, and Newcomb are all guys who either affirmatively prove they belong, or are easy cut candidates. Let's say two step up and we want to keep for next year

- Heyward is probably finally a cut candidate when he's down to 1 year

 

That means we'll have 10 spots for prospects and FAs. Plenty, right? Maybe not when you look at prospects who may need to be added to the 40 man because of the Rule 5 draft:

 

- Brennen Davis and Caleb Kilian

- Cam Sanders, Brendon Little, Riley Thompson, Eury Ramos, Bryan Hudson, and Brandon Hughes were all already available last year and might have been picked if the draft had actually happened, and look much more likely to be grabbed this year

- Chris Clarke, Kohl Franklin, and Ryan Jensen will be newly eligible SPs

- Upper minors live armed relievers Cayne Ueckert and Danis Correa

- Kevin Alcantara, Yohendrick Pinango and Cole Roederer are far enough away to maybe be safe, but good enough prospects that you probably have to protect them

 

That's 16 names who I think in a given year you would potentially see protected. There's a few more 40 man spots you can clean up (e.g. Mills, Rucker, Wieck), but you're still at best protecting half of these guys.

 

I kind of wonder if we see a buy deal mixed in with all of the selling at the deadline, to consolidate resources and jump the offseason market. For instance to grab one of the SPs we need a little early and clear the decks a bit for what should be a busy winter. I think Jed should also look to do deals structured like the Javy deal last winter, where we threw in Trevor Williams to sweeten the return a bit and clear him off the 40.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Blue Jays single-A team recorded 24 Ks in a 9 inning game

[Named After Maddux]

As Dalton Wilcox might say...makes me mayd!

 

Hoyer discusses Howard's hip injury (May 14)

 

Prior to Saturday's game at Chase Field, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer indicated that the ballclub is expecting a lengthy absence for shortstop prospect Ed Howard, following a serious hip injury sustained earlier in the week with High-A South Bend.

 

The Cubs are still in the process of gathering information about the next steps for Howard (MLB Pipeline's No. 14 Cubs prospect).

 

"There's never good timing for an injury like that, but it's a shame," Hoyer said. "He worked so incredibly hard this winter. He got stronger than anyone at our camp this winter. You look at the exit velocities, he brought his strikeout rate down, he was playing his typical good defense.

 

"It's a shame that his season's going to be cut short. He'll work really hard. His attitude has been really good, despite the fact that he's been really bummed out about the injury. His attitude's been good, and I think he'll come back strong."

 

In the bottom of the ninth inning against Fort Wayne on Tuesday, the 20-year-old Howard pulled a ground ball and then attempted to avoid a tag on an errant throw from shortstop Ripken Reyes. The Cubs' prospect landed hard beyond first base, rolling on the ground in clear pain and then slamming his helmet in frustration. The incident came as Howard was enjoying a strong stretch for South Bend.

 

On the season, Howard (Chicago's first-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft) has slashed .244/.323/.317 in 23 games, but he had turned things on of late. The shortstop had slashed at a .320/.382/.440 clip in his last 14 games, dating back to April 20. That followed a .125 average (.362 OPS) in his first nine games of the season. -- Jordan Bastian

 

Also annoying, too expensive in 2020 and didn't make it to the 2nd pick in 2021:

 

 

I’ve liked Andrew Abbott a lot. When Bryan Smith and I were in the Prospects Live Community mock we was almost the second pick. But I’d rather have Triantos personally.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s Hot Sheet (top 20 prospects of the last week): https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-51722/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email

 

18. Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs

Team: High-A South Bend (Midwest)

Age: 19

 

Why He’s Here: .471/.550/.765, (8-for-17), 4 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 1 BB, 2 SO

 

The Scoop: The 2020 second-rounder of the Padres wasn’t in the system long before getting traded to the Cubs as part of the return for righthander Yu Darvish in December 2020. He quickly proved his worth with his new organization, dominating the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League in 2021 and spending 22 games at Low-A. The 19-year-old finished his best week of the 2022 season with three consecutive multi-hit games while showcasing his plus-plus raw power. The swing and miss is still too high, but Caissie has the tools to one day be a power-hitting force in a major league lineup. (CHT)

[CubinNY]

Didn’t the Cubs have a high signing bonus catcher from the DR who came to the states last year out of shape? I’m I thinking about someone else? Is he still with the organization?

[CubinNY]

Sounds like Davis might not get any MLB at-bats until September

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Woof:

 

 

On the good side:

 

Arizona Phil[/url]"]Koen Moreno threw a side-session bullpen with Michael McAvene and Samuel Reyes a couple of days ago, so K. Moreno, McAvene, and S. Reyes will probably be pitching in EXST games soon.

[Splendid Splinter]

I figured I would post in this thread for my questions. As some of you know from the golf thread, I will be moving to Myrtle Beach in 3 weeks for my new career. My question to you guys as I haven't followed the minors much in the past 3-4 years is has anybody been to the MB stadium? If so, how was it and should I sit in a certain area or it's a great view no matter where?

 

The next question is how the rest of the Carolina League stack up prospects wise? Like if I go to a game, which team should I see and who to watch? I'm going to try to see a couple games this summer on my off days if it works out and thought I would ask since you guys follow the minors more closely than I do.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Although FB velo certanly isn't the be all / end all for a pitcher, the fact is the four 2021 DSL pitchers the Cubs brought up from the Dominican Academy to Minor League Camp in March (Michael Arias, Kenyi Perez, Marino Santy, and Joel Sierra) are the four pitchers with the highest FB velo from amongst the 15 2021 DSL Cubs pitchers who are presently at Extended Spring Training and who will be pitching in the ACL this year.

 

Here are the top-out FB game velo from Cubs pitchers presently active at 2022 EXST:

 

Joel Sierra: 100 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Michael Arias: 99 (ex-SS - 2021 DSL Cubs)

Angel Gonzalez: 98, also 87-89 SL (2021 ACL Cubs)

Gregori Montano: 96 (2021 ACL Cubs)

Kenyi Perez::96 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Marino Santy: 96 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Yovanny Cabrera: 95 (2021 ACL Cubs)

Alfredo Zarraga: 95 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Wilfri Figuereo: 93 (2021 ACL Cubs)

Gleiber Morales: 93 (2021 DSL Cubs)

C. D. Pelham: 93 (Mesa Rehab)

Jose Romero: 93 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Jose Alcila: 92 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Yohan Crispin: 92 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Angel Hernandez: 91 (2021 ACL Cubs)

Jack Patterson: 91 (Mesa Rehab)

Starlyn Pichardo: 91 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Tomy Sanchez: 91 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Rony Baez: 90 (2021 ACL Cubs)

Cristian Rojas: 88 (2021 DSL Cubs)

Anthony Martinez: N/A at this time (2021 DSL Cubs)

Anthony Mendez: N/A at this time (2021 DSL Cubs)

Oliver Roque: N/A at this time (2021 DSL Cubs)

 

While some of the pitchers with lesser FB game velo listed above do have other plus-pitches, like Angel Hernandez (CV and CH), Tomy Sanchez (CV), Cristian Rojas (CH), Jose Romero (SL), and Oliver Roque (CV), the Cubs clearly targeted the four pitchers with the hottest FB velo (Arias, K. Perez, Santy, and Sierra) for special attention right from the gitgo.

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/comment/272249#comment-272249

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1528939104808775681?t=yZ27mtVudvyas98HmKeFBA&s=19

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This week’s BA Prospect Hot Sheet:

 

15. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

Age: 20

 

Why He’s Here: .407/.484/.741 (11-for-27), 9 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 4 BB, 7 SO, 1-for-2 SB

 

The Scoop: Another week, another dominant showing by Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs No. 3 prospect extended his hitting streak to seven games with an excellent series at Columbia, including a pair of three-hit games and two homers in the final three games of the series. Crow-Armstrong now has at least one hit in 28 of his 33 games this season and is batting .372, third-highest in the minors behind only Pirates infielder Jacob Gonzalez (.408) and Guardians infielder Milan Tolentino (.379). (KG)

[Bertz]

With Morel up and Kilian looking imminent, I've been thinking a lot about the timeline for guys in the minor league pipeline. There's gonna be a couple month lull after Kilian, but once Davis and/or Velazquez comes up it should be a pretty steady flow of guys for a while. Obviously a lot can happen in player development and many of these will change, but I'd say it's fair to say these are the guesses on ETAs for some of our most relevant prospects right now:

 

Any Time Now

 

Caleb Kilian, Ben Leeper

 

2H 2022

 

Brennen Davis, Nelly Velazquez, more relievers (Brendon Little, Bryan Hudson)

 

1H 2023

 

Jordan Wicks, Chris Clarke, Bryce Ball, Alexander Canario, more relievers (Bailey Horn, Danis Correa, Eury Ramos),

 

2H 2023

 

Miguel Amaya, DJ Herz, Owen Caissie, Yohendrick Pinango, maybe PCA?

 

2024

 

Ed Howard, the Myrtle Beach Bunch, Kohl Franklin

 

There's also the live-armed quartet of Ryan Jensen, Anderson Espinoza, Max Bain, and Riley Thompson. Their ETAs are hard to peg because it depends on how much leash they're going to get as SPs, but any could be up within ~3 months of shifting to relief. And if the Cubs take a college bat at #7, that guy is probably 2023 relevant as well.

 

I think it also underscores my desire to do a buy deal this summer. Even if you're very down on the short and medium term path to contention, you've gotta consolidate some assets if for no other reason than pure roster limit reasons.

[Hrubes20]

With Morel up and Kilian looking imminent, I've been thinking a lot about the timeline for guys in the minor league pipeline. There's gonna be a couple month lull after Kilian, but once Davis and/or Velazquez comes up it should be a pretty steady flow of guys for a while. Obviously a lot can happen in player development and many of these will change, but I'd say it's fair to say these are the guesses on ETAs for some of our most relevant prospects right now:

 

Any Time Now

 

Caleb Kilian, Ben Leeper

 

2H 2022

 

Brennen Davis, Nelly Velazquez, more relievers (Brendon Little, Bryan Hudson)

 

1H 2023

 

Jordan Wicks, Chris Clarke, Bryce Ball, Alexander Canario, more relievers (Bailey Horn, Danis Correa, Eury Ramos),

 

2H 2023

 

Miguel Amaya, DJ Herz, Owen Caissie, Yohendrick Pinango, maybe PCA?

 

2024

 

Ed Howard, the Myrtle Beach Bunch, Kohl Franklin

 

There's also the live-armed quartet of Ryan Jensen, Anderson Espinoza, Max Bain, and Riley Thompson. Their ETAs are hard to peg because it depends on how much leash they're going to get as SPs, but any could be up within ~3 months of shifting to relief. And if the Cubs take a college bat at #7, that guy is probably 2023 relevant as well.

 

I think it also underscores my desire to do a buy deal this summer. Even if you're very down on the short and medium term path to contention, you've gotta consolidate some assets if for no other reason than pure roster limit reasons.

 

Leeper just went on the IL. It's the 7-day variety, but I never rule out a serious thing with a guy who has already had 2 TJS procedures in his life.

 

And thanks for "Myrtle Beach Bunch". I now have the theme song of the Brady Bunch stuck in my head.

[Bertz]

Leeper just went on the IL. It's the 7-day variety, but I never rule out a serious thing with a guy who has already had 2 TJS procedures in his life.

 

And thanks for "Myrtle Beach Bunch". I now have the theme song of the Brady Bunch stuck in my head.

 

That's annoying, he was just rounding into form. Yeah hopefully it's minor. I'm also still super curious about whatever the heck happened to him in August/September last year, went like 4-5 weeks without pitching in a game but never got reported on the IL or DL.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

With Morel up and Kilian looking imminent, I've been thinking a lot about the timeline for guys in the minor league pipeline. There's gonna be a couple month lull after Kilian, but once Davis and/or Velazquez comes up it should be a pretty steady flow of guys for a while. Obviously a lot can happen in player development and many of these will change, but I'd say it's fair to say these are the guesses on ETAs for some of our most relevant prospects right now:

 

Any Time Now

 

Caleb Kilian, Ben Leeper

 

2H 2022

 

Brennen Davis, Nelly Velazquez, more relievers (Brendon Little, Bryan Hudson)

 

1H 2023

 

Jordan Wicks, Chris Clarke, Bryce Ball, Alexander Canario, more relievers (Bailey Horn, Danis Correa, Eury Ramos),

 

2H 2023

 

Miguel Amaya, DJ Herz, Owen Caissie, Yohendrick Pinango, maybe PCA?

 

2024

 

Ed Howard, the Myrtle Beach Bunch, Kohl Franklin

 

There's also the live-armed quartet of Ryan Jensen, Anderson Espinoza, Max Bain, and Riley Thompson. Their ETAs are hard to peg because it depends on how much leash they're going to get as SPs, but any could be up within ~3 months of shifting to relief. And if the Cubs take a college bat at #7, that guy is probably 2023 relevant as well.

 

I think it also underscores my desire to do a buy deal this summer. Even if you're very down on the short and medium term path to contention, you've gotta consolidate some assets if for no other reason than pure roster limit reasons.

 

I have a tough time seeing a 1H 2023 call up for anyone who isn't at least performing well in AA now, so the Wicks and Canario timelines(while they have their logic with Wicks' advanced nature and Canario's 40 man spot) seem aggressive. Similarly, Caissie struggled so badly to start the year that it stretches my belief that he can earn a promotion and perform well enough to get past 2 more levels in 15 months.

 

But what this does say to me is that the pitching help is on the way and not on a long term timeline. They've clearly got pitching dev in full gear and are on a path to essentially get to a place where 1 strong SP candidate and several RP options are filtering through per year, and that's a really good place to be.

 

It also says that the competitive timeline could really use a couple trajectory improvements from the hitters at South Bend or above. Davis coming back from injury and going supernova on Iowa, Ball keeping up with the marginal improvements to his current form, Velazquez figuring out Iowa, etc. It'd really be a boon if they could reasonably hope for a possible star and a decent role player/starter on the hitting side hitting Chicago by the 2023 All-Star break.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Leeper just went on the IL. It's the 7-day variety, but I never rule out a serious thing with a guy who has already had 2 TJS procedures in his life.

 

And thanks for "Myrtle Beach Bunch". I now have the theme song of the Brady Bunch stuck in my head.

 

That's annoying, he was just rounding into form. Yeah hopefully it's minor. I'm also still super curious about whatever the heck happened to him in August/September last year, went like 4-5 weeks without pitching in a game but never got reported on the IL or DL.

 

Afterwards, it came out that Leeper has elbow inflammation last August.