Minor League Musings

[craig]

2 thoughts: Preciado has super-skinny legs. The non-braced leg, look how slender that is. He's young, so has lots of time to get stronger as you say. But some guys are just born to have slender limbs? There's a chance that he's one of them?

 

Made may look more physically put together now than a year ago, I don't have good recall. But performance-wise, he's not looking that much more physically powerful? His walk-rate has vaulted, more than 5-times higher, so that's great. But his slugging has jumped only a trace, from .366 to .390, not much of a jump. (His average is a little lower than last year.). Last year 17 XBH in 235 AB; this year only 9 XBH in 123 AB. So his XBH rate has barely moved at all, although he's turned a couple of doubles into HR.

 

I'd actually hoped to see a much more noticeable increase in his hitting and power output with an extra year of strength and experience. Still got some season left, so perhaps that might still come. But it doesn't look like his hitting or power has shown any significant jump, only his walking.

[Bertz]

2 thoughts: Preciado has super-skinny legs. The non-braced leg, look how slender that is. He's young, so has lots of time to get stronger as you say. But some guys are just born to have slender limbs? There's a chance that he's one of them?

 

Made may look more physically put together now than a year ago, I don't have good recall. But performance-wise, he's not looking that much more physically powerful? His walk-rate has vaulted, more than 5-times higher, so that's great. But his slugging has jumped only a trace, from .366 to .390, not much of a jump. (His average is a little lower than last year.). Last year 17 XBH in 235 AB; this year only 9 XBH in 123 AB. So his XBH rate has barely moved at all, although he's turned a couple of doubles into HR.

 

I'd actually hoped to see a much more noticeable increase in his hitting and power output with an extra year of strength and experience. Still got some season left, so perhaps that might still come. But it doesn't look like his hitting or power has shown any significant jump, only his walking.

 

I think looking at something like XBH rate can be a bit misleading. You can get an XBH from a 78 MPH bloop just as easily as a 114 MPH screamer can be an out. With the limitations we have on minor league data, I think the first place I look is HR/FB rate, and Made's has increased 4x from 2.6% to 11.1%.

 

Now maybe it's less strength and more better decision making, but in the absence of Statcast data I think that's the most compelling data point we have.

[chi89cubs]

Anyone like to have a go at Rule 5? Looks like we will lose 1 0r 2 players at least through it.

[Bertz]

Anyone like to have a go at Rule 5? Looks like we will lose 1 0r 2 players at least through it.

 

I made a post last week in the transactions forum, but yeah it looks like it's gonna be an issue:

 

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=4291&p=499439#p498977

 

The team has enough roster spots that we don't have to worry about protecting the most important guys, but they'll probably have to leave a few guys on the level of a Brendon Little unprotected, which is not ideal. I hope Jed takes some steps this deadline to get ahead of this, rather than being forced into trade(s) at the end of November just to clear up roster room.

[Bertz]

 

3rd in xFIP too so not just dong luck

[muntjack]

 

Made may look more physically put together now than a year ago, I don't have good recall. But performance-wise, he's not looking that much more physically powerful? His walk-rate has vaulted, more than 5-times higher, so that's great. But his slugging has jumped only a trace, from .366 to .390, not much of a jump. (His average is a little lower than last year.). Last year 17 XBH in 235 AB; this year only 9 XBH in 123 AB. So his XBH rate has barely moved at all, although he's turned a couple of doubles into HR.

 

I'd actually hoped to see a much more noticeable increase in his hitting and power output with an extra year of strength and experience. Still got some season left, so perhaps that might still come. But it doesn't look like his hitting or power has shown any significant jump, only his walking.

 

 

He had a good game (2B, HR) since you posted this, but I'm really excited that he went from 1 HR in 235 AB to 4 HR in 130 AB, while increasing his BB % from 2.5% to 13.5%. I feel like that's great progress and I already liked him more than Howard.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Positive reviews on Ryan Jensen’s new shorter arm action, Jake Slaughter, Javier Assad, Matt Mervis and even reliever Blake Whitney. Not so positive about Canario.

 

[sneakypower]

[attachment=0]20211201_191053.jpg[/attachment]

[CubinNY]

The Twins high A team (Ceder Rapids) is 20 games above .500 and sports a +121 RD in 66 games in the Midwest League. That is pretty amazing.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Twins high A team (Ceder Rapids) is 20 games above .500 and sports a +121 RD in 66 games in the Midwest League. That is pretty amazing.

 

The Cubs single-A team is 28 games above .500 with a +149 RD in a similar 66 games. They’re tops in wins and RD in all of minor league baseball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Athletic has a fairly detailed write up on the state of play with Davis and PCA: https://theathletic.com/3382581/2022/06/24/cubs-brennen-davis-pete-crow-armstrong/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

 

Noteworthy things from my read:

 

- Davis barely has more minor league PA than Bryant did when he got promoted to MLB, which combined with his late focus on baseball means he needs more reps. Especially given the way his weaknesses will be exploited, like taking advantage of his size/long levers to create K's up in the zone.

 

- PCA's injury was quoted as a 2 week rest, and we're almost to that point. He's doing some defensive work and will face live pitching this weekend so a return to the lineup should be pretty soon

 

- PCA's exit velocities are up 2-3 mph this year, which per Hoyer is a significant jump. Given what was already known about the speed/defense/contact profile, that type of pop really raises the ceiling.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Athletic has a fairly detailed write up on the state of play with Davis and PCA: https://theathletic.com/3382581/2022/06/24/cubs-brennen-davis-pete-crow-armstrong/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

 

Noteworthy things from my read:

 

- Davis barely has more minor league PA than Bryant did when he got promoted to MLB, which combined with his late focus on baseball means he needs more reps. Especially given the way his weaknesses will be exploited, like taking advantage of his size/long levers to create K's up in the zone.

 

- PCA's injury was quoted as a 2 week rest, and we're almost to that point. He's doing some defensive work and will face live pitching this weekend so a return to the lineup should be pretty soon

 

- PCA's exit velocities are up 2-3 mph this year, which per Hoyer is a significant jump. Given what was already known about the speed/defense/contact profile, that type of pop really raises the ceiling.

 

Also, we got confirmation he was playing through pain which helped explain at least some of his rough numbers.

 

And the surgery continues to sound like a best case scenario for a back surgery.

[We Got The Whole 9]

When are we going to get a database that tracks Minor League things like contact rate, EV/LA, spin, etc? Or is there one already? I've seen articles referencing these things and not just from interviews with FO execs.

 

I know several years ago minorleaguecentral used to track contact rate but the site went defunct a few years ago.

[Bertz]

When are we going to get a database that tracks Minor League things like contact rate, EV/LA, spin, etc? Or is there one already? I've seen articles referencing these things and not just from interviews with FO execs.

 

I know several years ago minorleaguecentral used to track contact rate but the site went defunct a few years ago.

 

I believe ~half of minor league parks have Statcast installed, and you can scrape data from the Baseball Savant website. And it's I think league by league, so like the PCL has it but the International League doesn't. I'd imagine the big boys like FG and BR won't spend the effort building out a process to add the data until it's available for all or at least most games.

 

So what you've got now I believe is either sourced from teams, or is fairly piecemeal. Like I'm pretty sure Eno Sarris did a "best Stuff+ ratings in the PCL" article a bit ago, and the reason it was just the PCL was clearly the limits on data availability.

 

Contact rate is an annoying thing that we should have though. FG has swinging strike rate available, so like the raw data should be there for contact rate.

[CubinNY]

 

Prospect or filler?

[UK]

 

Prospect or filler?

 

Filler.

[UK]

I'm trying to figure out Narciso Crook at Iowa.

 

I doubt he'll make the major league roster before September given Nelly is currently there (should be starting at Iowa, IMO), Suzuki should be back soon, Ortega proving ok as a 4th, and they'll never cut Heyward.

 

He was drafted at 17 yo out of a small JUCO in the 23rd rd and signed for 100k. He was mishandled by the Reds, rushed to Low-A at 19, and struggled to progress and eventually granted FA.

 

Plus raw power, probably won't hit for avg, corner defense OFer with a below avg arm strength. It does appear that his BP power is finally translating to the game.

 

He's probably some type of RH'ed OF platoon/PH (who hits righties better than lefties) at his best and a minor league filler at his worst.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s hottest 20 prospects this week: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-62822/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email

 

17. Matt Mervis, 1B, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 24

 

Why He’s Here: .333/.385/.905 (7-for-21), 5 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBIs, 3 BB, 5 SO, 1-for-1 SB

 

The Scoop: A two-way player at Duke, Mervis signed with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent after the 2020 draft and has exploded with his focus solely on being a position player. Mervis had his latest big week at Double-A with five extra-base hits in six games against Chattanooga and is now batting .323/.371/.647 with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs in 62 games on the season. Though he’s older, Mervis is ascending the minors quickly and asserting himself as one of the Cubs’ best pure offensive prospects. (KG)

[Bertz]

 

Lots of Cubs info here

[Transmogrified Tiger]

BP has a (free) scouting report for Canario: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/75665/eyewitness-accounts-nastrini-is-in-control-can-canario-hit/

 

More at the link, but this is the overall summary:

 

There’s a huge amount of variance in Canario’s profile, all of which are dependent on the bat. I’m encouraged by the improvements that I witnessed this spring, especially the approach, and I think he’ll hit enough to be a second-division regular. However, there is the positive risk that his talent and continued instruction coax out an above-average major league outfielder.

[Bertz]

From a Sahadev article this AM on Narciso Crook

 

What exactly did the Cubs see with Crook and how did they correct it? That’s information they’re holding close to the vest for now. It’s an area they believe they still have a competitive advantage in, but it’s something they helped correct with Nelson Velázquez last year, felt they could leverage in the minor-league free-agent market and have now accomplished a similar achievement with Crook.

 

Stone was willing to share what was adjusted in a more general form, though.

 

“His previous setup, the way that he would load allowed for a lot more swing-and-miss and maybe more mis-hits,” Stone said. “He’d make contact, but he’d just clip balls, balls he should be doing damage on and mis-hitting them straight up or down. It was a complete adjustment and overhaul of his upper-body mechanics. It’s night and day, if you look at him now against where he was a year ago. A complete upper-body overhaul and pattern change allows him to keep his barrel in the zone longer but also in a position that’s going to create more solid contact.”

 

The Cubs have been cheeky about whatever this change is, so you have to wonder if they have a 'One Weird Trick' for fixing certain swings, and if that is what the heck is happening with any of the other less heralded bats that have blown up like Mervis and Slaughter.

[Donzo]

Any Bryan Hudson updates?

 

I remember the thought was it would take some time for him to develop when he was drafted. Because of his size and form it was going to be a process for him to develop repeatable pitching mechanics. Well, here we are 7 or 8 years later and his mechanics are doing well in AAA. Excellent Ks, HPI and WHIP numbers.

 

Is he doing this with stuff that'll work in the majors or has he just become an effective minor league pro in his 8th season in the minors?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Any Bryan Hudson updates?

 

I remember the thought was it would take some time for him to develop when he was drafted. Because of his size and form it was going to be a process for him to develop repeatable pitching mechanics. Well, here we are 7 or 8 years later and his mechanics are doing well in AAA. Excellent Ks, HPI and WHIP numbers.

 

Is he doing this with stuff that'll work in the majors or has he just become an effective minor league pro in his 8th season in the minors?

 

I don't have any scouting/first hand accounts, but he's been very good. Between Hughes and Hudson(who both have been hard on both RHH and LHH), plus some lesser likelihood options that could break through(Little, Newcomb, Wieck), I'm hopeful they won't need to bring in next year's version of Norris to ensure there's enough LHP representation in the pen.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s prospect hot sheet for the 20 hottest minor leaguers in baseball:

 

18. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (League)

Age: 24

 

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO, 0 HR

 

The Scoop: Espinoza’s first big league callup in May was heartwarming, but he hadn’t actually pitched well this season. That changed last week. Espinoza pitched five no-hit innings against Rocket City on June 28 in his best start of the season and followed with a scoreless inning of relief at Birmingham on July 4. It was his first sustained success of the year after he entered the week with a 7.87 ERA for the Smokies. Espinoza still has a long way to go to reclaim his former top prospect status, but his week was a step in the right direction. (KG).

 

HELIUM

 

Moises Ballesteros, C, Cubs

 

Ballesteros signed with the Cubs for $1.5 million on the first day of the 2021 international signing period. After a solid showing in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League last year, he is showing why he was so highly valued in the Arizona Complex League this year. Ballesteros had three consecutive multi-hit games last week and is now batting .308/.384/.615 to start the ACL season and is tied for the league lead with five home runs. Ballesteros has a stout, blocky body and whether he will remain a catcher is in question, but he projects to be an impact hitter whose bat will play anywhere. (KG).