Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Prospect Hot Sheet. The hottest 20 prospects in all of baseball the past week:

 

2. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 22

 

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 15 SO, 0 HR

 

The Scoop: The Cubs 2021 first-round pick received a promotion to Double-A in mid-July and struggled in his first two starts at the level. Clearly, he got through the adjustment period just fine. Wicks pitched five scoreless innings with no walks and eight strikeouts in his first start against Rocket City last week and added four more scoreless innings with seven strikeouts to cap the six-game series. He finished off his week in style, striking out the side in his final inning of work. (KG).

 

10. Yonathan Perlaza, OF, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee Smokies (Southern)

Age: 23

 

Why He’s Here: .417/.500/.1.125 (10-for-24), 6 R, 2 2B, 5 HR, 8 RBIs, 3 BB, 8 SO

 

The Scoop: The Smokies outfielder hit five home runs over the six-game series at Rocket City last week. You might even say Perlaza’s bat trashed the Pandas, as he got the series off to a bang when he combined to go 7-for-11 with three home runs, six RBIs and four runs. Perlaza has 19 home runs over 91 games this season and has a solid combination of power, on-base ability and bat-to-ball skills. (GP)

[Bertz]

 

Like Palencia, extremely happy this was only a brief IL trip

[TruffleShuffle]

10. Yonathan Perlaza, OF, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee Smokies (Southern)

Age: 23

 

Why He’s Here: .417/.500/.1.125 (10-for-24), 6 R, 2 2B, 5 HR, 8 RBIs, 3 BB, 8 SO

 

The Scoop: The Smokies outfielder hit five home runs over the six-game series at Rocket City last week. You might even say Perlaza’s bat trashed the Pandas, as he got the series off to a bang when he combined to go 7-for-11 with three home runs, six RBIs and four runs. Perlaza has 19 home runs over 91 games this season and has a solid combination of power, on-base ability and bat-to-ball skills. (GP)

 

i was gonna ask about perlaza, what's the story with him? is he kind of a high floor, low ceiling type of guy? because he's hit very well the last two years in leagues where he was a little younger than most players, and there aren't really any red flags (like an inflated strikeout rate or unsustainable babip) in his stats suggesting that he's a fluke.

[sneakypower]

after a bad April he's been insanely productive, feels like one of those offseason helium guys when services realize how dominating he's been

 

[attachment=0]Screenshot 2022-08-10 at 12-04-36 Yonathan Perlaza 2022 Minor & Winter Leagues Game Logs & Splits Baseball-Reference.com.png[/attachment]

[Tryptamine]

after a bad April he's been insanely productive, feels like one of those offseason helium guys when services realize how dominating he's been

 

[attachment=0]Screenshot 2022-08-10 at 12-04-36 Yonathan Perlaza 2022 Minor & Winter Leagues Game Logs & Splits Baseball-Reference.com.png[/attachment]

 

I don't know that he'll get much hype. For guys who provide 90+% of their value via the bat, they have to absolutely destroy the league to gain any real notoriety and even then it's the guys with a real plus tool as well.

[Bertz]

Perlaza is probably a tweener. He doesn't have exceptional speed or power, so as a likely average defensive corner outfielder it puts a lot of pressure on the bat.

 

But on paper the bat is very fun! Plus plus patience, average contact, good power, hits the ball mostly in the air while not also having a pop-up problem, a true switch hitter, etc. He checks a lot of the boxes of a guy who eventually outpaces his scouting report. That said because of the defensive limitations I think he still likely tops out as a good bench bat.

[craig]

Perlaza is probably a tweener. He doesn't have exceptional speed or power, so as a likely average defensive corner outfielder it puts a lot of pressure on the bat.

 

But on paper the bat is very fun! Plus plus patience, average contact, good power, hits the ball mostly in the air while not also having a pop-up problem, a true switch hitter, etc. He checks a lot of the boxes of a guy who eventually outpaces his scouting report. That said because of the defensive limitations I think he still likely tops out as a good bench bat.

 

Agree with your thoughts, Bertz. Still, of all the tools, hitting is the rarest thing. Guys who can hit get AB's. I'm again reminded of how helpful it is to have the DH, too. *IF* you had a good, switch-hitting 4th outfielder who was actually a good hitter, he might hypothetically DH twice a week, play left once a week while the LF rests or DH's; play right once a week while the RF rests or DH's; and maybe get an extra start once in a while if the primary starter if facing a bad pitching matchup, or whatever.

 

Obviously the key is to be a serious hitter. Seems like everybody in AA is racking up big numbers, so I admit I'm a little cautious of how sustainable any of the AA hitters will be.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Luke Little to South Bend

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

But then:

 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

 

Luke Little to South Bend

It is going to take me a while to get used to the fact that going from Myrtle Beach to South Bend is a promotion and not a demotion. My brain is so used to it being the other way around.

[Bertz]

Hate to say it but the MB roster kind of sucks now. It's for the right reasons in that a bunch of guys got promoted, but feels a bit like Kevin Alcantara is Will Smith in that empty house meme. One of the drawbacks to going all pitching in the draft is there's not really been any backfill except for Ballesteros.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hate to say it but the MB roster kind of sucks now. It's for the right reasons in that a bunch of guys got promoted, but feels a bit like Kevin Alcantara is Will Smith in that empty house meme. One of the drawbacks to going all pitching in the draft is there's not really been any backfill except for Ballesteros.

 

The big name teens have really run out of steam in the last month or so. Since the 4th of July games, Alcantara's hitting .233/.324/.344 and Triantos .207/.250/.304.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Grant Kipp - the NDFA following this year’s draft - is the corresponding move to Little going up to high-A.

 

[Bertz]

Did this a few months ago, but it bears updating. Here's where we're at with the 40 man roster plus who is due to be added this winter. The good news is that a lot of the marginal guys have washed out, so moving forward the 40 is certainly a consideration but it's not a dire one

 

- Current roster stands at 39, with 6 on the 60 Day IL and 1 on the Restricted List. Therefore 46 in total

- There are 3 impending FAs in Contreras, Miley and Smyly

- 8 very easy cuts with Heyward, Vizcaino, Schwindel, Hermosillo, Bote, Rivas, Wieck and Mills

- 5 guys are not quite slam dunks but seem more likely than not to also get cut in Ortega, Crook, Leiter, Brault, and Castro

- Another 6 guys probably don't get cut but could if the next two months go poorly in Reyes, Mckinstry, Sampson, Rucker, Newcomb, and Espinoza

 

So all told, there's likely 30-32 guys on the 40 man heading into the winter, but that could be as low as 25 if Jed wants to scorch the earth. Now for the additions:

 

- Brennen Davis, Hayden Wisneski, Ben Brown, and Kevin Alcantara absolutely must be added to the 40

- There's a group of guys who are iffy since they have the prospectiness to get picked but likely not the readiness to stick on a roster for a full year. Guys include Luis Devers, Yohendrick Pinango, Ryan Jensen, Yovanny Cruz, and Riley Thompson

- On the flip side guys with lower ceilings who do look like they could contribute next year if they were pushed into action like Chris Clarke, Yonathan Perlaza, Darius Hill, and like half the Iowa bullpen (Sanders, Estrada, Assad, Little, Hudson)

 

The lost COVID development year has put most teams in a tough 40 man position, so the Cubs can probably get away without protecting any of the guys from those last two groups. But those are where the tougher decisions lie. Relatedly, if you do see any surprise MLB call-ups in the next 6 weeks it will be from that last cohort. There's already a but if smoke around Sanders, Estrada, and Hill.

 

Overall, it's much less crunched than it looked a few months ago, which is the natural work of attrition. That said, I do think there's enough pressure that we see it influence moves over the next six months. For instance there's very little chance we see Matt Mervis this year, even though he's increasingly looking worthy of a cup of coffee. Similarly when Jed starts filling out the back of the pitching staff next February, I think we see 2-3 additions in the $5-10M range rather than the 5-6 adds in the <$5M range we saw this spring. And while I don't think we see a go for broke trade such as Ohtani, I do think Jed fills one of the MLB holes by trading some of this surplus.

[JeffH]

I think Estrada is a slam dunk addition to the 40-man.

 

Brault, Leiter, Mills, and Newcomb are all under club control and have some value, but what counts against them is that each will be out of options in 2023. Alzolay, too, but you'd have to think that, if healthy, he at least begins the year on the 26-man roster.

 

Bote is still owed a bunch of money AND he'll have an option remaining. Also, I don't think it's out of the question that Rivas survives.

[JeffH]

If I were another bad club, I might spend the Rule 5 fee and draft Cayne Ueckert (despite his disastrous season). No way the Cubs can protect him, obviously.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I think Estrada is a slam dunk addition to the 40-man.

 

Brault, Leiter, Mills, and Newcomb are all under club control and have some value, but what counts against them is that each will be out of options in 2023. Alzolay, too, but you'd have to think that, if healthy, he at least begins the year on the 26-man roster.

 

Bote is still owed a bunch of money AND he'll have an option remaining. Also, I don't think it's out of the question that Rivas survives.

 

Completely agreed on Estrada.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

With Gore and DL Hall up, which LHSP prospects in the minors am I taking over Jordan Wicks? Kyle Harrison?

 

Along with Harrison, I’d take Ricky Tiedemann and maybe Ken Waldichuk over Wicks. I wouldn’t take Matt Liberatore but I’m sure he’ll be ranked higher than Wicks by the national media.

[Donzo]

For those that don't know Estrada's back story, which included me, here's a nice article explaining it in detail:

 

https://www.milb.com/news/the-minor-setback-how-jeremiah-estrada-has-battled-injuries-to-lead-pelicans-bul

 

He's doing OK in AAA. No runs in two innings, but he's given up 4Hs. Definitely want to see him in Chicago this year.

[sneakypower]

i'd love to hear some internal rumblings on Luis Verdugo to understand if/how he somehow flipped a switch

 

[attachment=1]x6Sidfll.png[/attachment]

[attachment=0]2_mFmtWN.png[/attachment]

"one simple trick turned me from Andrelton Simmons to Freddie Freeman"

[Bertz]

i'd love to hear some internal rumblings on Luis Verdugo to understand if/how he somehow flipped a switch

 

[attachment=1]x6Sidfll.png[/attachment]

[attachment=0]2_mFmtWN.png[/attachment]

"one simple trick turned me from Andrelton Simmons to Freddie Freeman"

 

Wasn't Verdugo the guy Bryan Smith talked about this spring training as being like noticeably more jacked? Maybe it took him two months to learn how to properly utilize his newfound man strength?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yessss

 

[Bertz]

8/30 then suddenly looks like the return to Iowa? That'd give him nearly a full month at AAA plus presumably an AFL stint