Shark Signs w/ Giants - 5/$90M (Happy Derwood?)

[jersey cubs fan]

Is it at all possible Shark takes a 1 year deal to try and get it back together and cash in next offseason?

 

Unless he despises Cooper and/or the White Sox at this point, I have to think he would have taken the qualifying offer if that were the case. He turns 31 in January, another year works against him as much as it works for him, in all likelihood.

 

He could take a short-term deal that still leaves him the opportunity to cash out with one last deal. Maybe he'd take a 2-year deal with an opt out if he reaches a certain innings limit. 2/28-35 gives him security if he can't bounce back but plenty of opportunity to cash out big if he does well. Short-term commitment at a fairly high dollar amount from a team perspective wouldn't be a terrible risk.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

My concern isn't much about whether he's an [expletive]. Although I do sometimes laugh when I think about Matt Garza's convo with him after Garza left.

 

If Shark is good, I'd be happy to have him. It's just weird to think about giving a guy 15 to 17 million per year after he was one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball last year (which might not be accurate, but has to be close, right?) In Bosio we all trust, but damn what if Shark just sucks now and we pay him like he doesn't?

 

I'd be surprised if he got more than $12 or 13 million a year.

 

Really? I guess I just figured the lowest would be $15. If not, he becomes a lot more intriguing. Still scary, because he might just suck, but a lot more intriguing.

[Sammy Sofa]

My concern isn't much about whether he's an [expletive]. Although I do sometimes laugh when I think about Matt Garza's convo with him after Garza left.

 

If Shark is good, I'd be happy to have him. It's just weird to think about giving a guy 15 to 17 million per year after he was one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball last year (which might not be accurate, but has to be close, right?) In Bosio we all trust, but damn what if Shark just sucks now and we pay him like he doesn't?

 

I'd be surprised if he got more than $12 or 13 million a year.

 

Really? I guess I just figured the lowest would be $15. If not, he becomes a lot more intriguing. Still scary, because he might just suck, but a lot more intriguing.

 

Obviously starters are always in high demand, but I think after last year he'll only get something that high per year if he takes a shorter deal.

[Guest]

They went to Newport

 

https://twitter.com/abohlen11/status/667373634575605760

 

 

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/11/19/levine-jeff-samardzijas-a-natural-fit-for-cubs/

 

After a dinner meeting with Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein on Wednesday evening, free agent right-hander Jeff Samardzija’s return to the North Side of Chicago seems more probable than not.

 

Samardzija wanted to sit down with Epstein to talk about the future, with the hope on both sides that the meeting could help grease the skids for Samardzija’s possible return to his original team on a mid-to-long-term contract, according to industry sources. The market for the 30-year-old Samardzija, a northwest Indiana native, will be surprisingly robust despite a down 2015 season with the White Sox.

 

Samardzija made $9.75 million in 2015. After being dealt from the Athletics to the White Sox in December 2014, something wasn’t right from the beginning with Samardzija and his new club. He struggled with his fastball command and got hit early and often in many of his 32 starts. Samardzija was 11-13 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.29 WHIP last season, when he allowed the most hits and earned runs in baseball.

 

The good news for the Cubs and other teams looking to add a solid rotation starter is that Samardzija is healthy. His fastball still averaged around 94 mph last year despite his bad stat line, and Samardzija topped 213 innings for the third straight season. (It would have been four straight if the Cubs hadn’t shut him down early in 2012.) A former Notre Dame football player, Samardzija started his MLB career as a reliever and doesn’t have as many innings piled up as most his age. Questions about durability and arm health aren’t an issue.

 

What those in Epstein’s position must decide is the risk factor in giving a three- or four-year contract to Samardzija after he struggled in 2015. Regarding the Cubs, Samardzija’s ace in the hole is his relationship with pitching coach Chris Bosio. The two had a close friendship and great working chemistry in Samardzija’s initial stint with the Cubs.

 

Samardzija’s improvement under Bosio from 2012 until he was traded in July 2014 to the Athletics was significant, and Bosio signed an extension recently to return for his season with the Cubs.

 

Other teams that have a deep interest in Samardzija are known to be the Yankees, Giants and Diamondbacks. Samardzija’s representation is from the Wasserman Media Group.

 

The contract talks will likely center around a three- to four-year deal with $15 million to $16 million annually in base pay, plus a chance to make more money through incentive clauses. In June 2014, the Cubs originally offered Samardzija a five-year deal potentially worth up to $85 million. It included option years and incentive-based pay.

[UMFan83]

lol Newport? Theo really slumming it with his bar selection. Does Shark still own that condo on Southport? I think that was right by Newport

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'll take the Arrieta/Price/Lester/Shark/Hammel or Hendrics rotation, please.

[Guest]

It's Levine's speculation so really it's no different than you or I saying something, but 3/45 to 4/64 plus incentives is definitely worth aggressively pursuing. You won't be able to get as much upside for that few years or that little AAV anywhere else in FA.

[UMFan83]

I'll take the Arrieta/Price/Lester/Shark/Hammel or Hendrics rotation, please.

 

I feel like if we sign shark it's at the expense of price. I hope if they are going that route they are intending to use the modest savings on our CF

[Cubswin11]

It's Levine's speculation so really it's no different than you or I saying something, but 3/45 to 4/64 plus incentives is definitely worth aggressively pursuing. You won't be able to get as much upside for that few years or that little AAV anywhere else in FA.

Yeah at that price, which seems low but who knows, I'm all in on Shark. Should leave enough room without having to do anything crazy to go after Heyward or Upton for CF/RF depending on if Soler gets moved or not (I look at Upton as a RF only option if Soler gets moved).

[Guest]

btw, this was the aforementioned article with optimism for Samardzija's future: http://www.cubsrelated.com/2015/11/should-samardzija-be-priority-1-for.html

 

Samardzija's lackluster 2015 is not a result of lackluster stuff. In fact, his stuff remained virtually the same as when he was under the guidance of Bosio. Look at the below three images, showing velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement. Notice how there's practically no pitch velocity or movement difference amongst his 2012-2015 seasons.

 

Notice below how he practically doubled his cutter usage, while also significantly throwing more siders. This type of pitch sequencing almost resembles that of Arrieta, at least in terms of the heavy cutter/slider reliance. The problem is that, unfortunately for Samardzija, he isn't Arrieta.

 

The increased cutter usage is a problem because his cutter, simply put, sucks. Its 2015 horizontal movement z-score is -2.97, meaning that every single MLB RHP throws the pitch with more movement. The pitch is possible the worst cutter in MLB!

[Backtobanks]

It's Levine's speculation so really it's no different than you or I saying something, but 3/45 to 4/64 plus incentives is definitely worth aggressively pursuing. You won't be able to get as much upside for that few years or that little AAV anywhere else in FA.

 

That's more like it. Those rumors of $80 - $85 million for him scared me away. A trade for Ross or a trade for Teheran plus Maybin in addition to signing Shark would look great.

[SouthSideRyan]

lol Newport? Theo really slumming it with his bar selection. Does Shark still own that condo on Southport? I think that was right by Newport

 

I'm glad somebody else said this first

[Guest]

generally what i want to see happen is to sign one of heyward/price/greinke AND samardzija and then trade for either a decent (meaning 2-3 win) CF or a decent starter with minor leaguers only. i don't like getting more specific than that on trades because who the hell knows who is out there and who wants what. too many variables. then go out and win 100 games.

 

i LOVE the samardzija talk (kind of a rich man's version of what happened with hammel last year) if it's in addition to one of the elite FAs. i probably hate it if it's in lieu of.

 

 

people who pay more attention to the payroll picture (i.e. kyle, davell, or TT), is that plan feasible? obviously hinges somewhat on the salary of said decent SP or CF...but if you need to clear some space by cutting bait on Wood or something like that, then do that.

 

i'm figuring $30M for the big guy, then around 15 for shark.

[Guest]

It is feasible, but you probably need to dump at least Castro and maybe Coghlan too(Wood is an assumed goner). That's not so bad considering the bullpen still needs to be shored up, but depending on the 2-3 win starter's salary you might have to leave yourself thin in some areas. Getting such a starter for only minor leaguers may not be easy either.

[Guest]

It is feasible, but you probably need to dump at least Castro and maybe Coghlan too(Wood is an assumed goner). That's not so bad considering the bullpen still needs to be shored up, but depending on the 2-3 win starter's salary you might have to leave yourself thin in some areas. Getting such a starter for only minor leaguers may not be easy either.

 

i guess if it meant all that, i'd be OK with (in the heyward scenario) going with hendricks and hammel in the back end instead of trading for the SP. 4 and 5 aren't really holes in that scenario.

 

then in the price or greinke scenario, i figure maybe someone would pop up out there who wouldn't cost too much as a salary dump like montero did last year (or even giving up more than we gave up there...guys like mckinney, candelario, johnson, etc.) but then, yeah, money and PTR.

[davell]

It can be done, even if the 130 speculated numbers by basically the entire media is correct. It'd be easier with Heyward as the big signing, as he's likely 20 mill per, versus 30 for Price/Greinke. Either way, it'd require some back loading, big signing bonuses, finding a pre arb guy for CF or the 2nd pitching spot, getting rid of Wood, Coghlan, and/or Hammel.

 

Example- Price/Greinke, Shark, Ozuna

 

Heyward, Shark, Salazar

[Guest]

It can be done, even if the 130 speculated numbers by basically the entire media is correct. It'd be easier with Heyward as the big signing, as he's likely 20 mill per, versus 30 for Price/Greinke. Either way, it'd require some back loading, big signing bonuses, finding a pre arb guy for CF or the 2nd pitching spot, getting rid of Wood, Coghlan, and/or Hammel.

 

Example- Price/Greinke, Shark, Ozuna

 

Heyward, Shark, Salazar

 

if heyward comes that cheap why the hell haven't we signed him yet

[davell]

Its the difference between 5/150ish on Greinke, Price at 7/210ish and Heyward at 9/180ish. Total money outlay is going to be high on all 3, but the extra years really make Heyward the easier of the 3 to fit into that type of scenario.

[Guest]

Where do I go to bet against Heyward getting 20M AAV. He's getting Price-caliber AAV.

[Tryptamine]

Where do I go to bet against Heyward getting 20M AAV. He's getting Price-caliber AAV.

 

Over 10 years I think that's absolutely reasonable. There's no way he's getting 30M annually or an 8 to 10 year deal.

[davell]

Where do I go to bet against Heyward getting 20M AAV. He's getting Price-caliber AAV.

 

You think? I can't see it. If anything, I could even see it being slightly under 20, since I have doubts that teams value base running and defense as much as the metrics we know do. Especially since most feel defense peaks early.

 

I can't see him taking less than 7 years and could see him get 10. The ONLY way I see him coming remotely close to 30 per year is if he signed a super short deal(3-4 years) for some reason.

[Guest]

Where do I go to bet against Heyward getting 20M AAV. He's getting Price-caliber AAV.

Where do I bet against Heyward getting 30M AAV?

[Guest]

Where do I go to bet against Heyward getting 20M AAV. He's getting Price-caliber AAV.

 

You think? I can't see it. If anything, I could even see it being slightly under 20, since I have doubts that teams value base running and defense as much as the metrics we know do. Especially since most feel defense peaks early.

 

I can't see him taking less than 7 years and could see him get 10. The ONLY way I see him coming remotely close to 30 per year is if he signed a super short deal(3-4 years) for some reason.

 

Where do I bet against Heyward getting 30M AAV?

 

If Heyward were a league average defender, his average fWAR the last 4 years would be just about identical to Justin Upton's. Upton's crowdsourced estimate(and remember these are very likely conservative) as someone 2 years older than Heyward is 6/120.

 

Even if teams think that half of Heyward's defensive value disappears tomorrow(or never existed), he's still a 4-5 win player at a position that everyone needs hitting free agency at 26(twenty-six! he's 6 months older than Castro) when wins are probably going to go to 8-9 million on the open market. He's going to get a huge AAV. If he gets the full duration he wants like 10 years plus an opt out I could see it going closer to 25 million than 30, but 20 is silliness. This is a market where Jeff Samardzija, 31 year old pitcher who has cracked 3 fWAR once and just had the worst season of his career, is projected to get 16 million and no one is batting an eyelash. Everyone wants Heyward, everyone could use Heyward, and for good reason, he's going to get paiiid.

[Guest]

and he's 26 years old which like never [expletive] happens anymore. he's getting closer to 30 than 20.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I am slightly hesitant to post this but I will anyway. A close friend of mine graduated with Jeff and still stays in touch. According to him Jeff said he will be back with the Cubs and it should be announced within the next week. No details beyond that and take it for what it is worth. I can only vouch for the fact that they graduated together at valpo.