David Price Signs w/ Boston - 7/$217M

[Guest]

i just dont get why there's a need to trade for a starter after a samardzija acquisition.

 

arrieta is locked in cheap for two years. lester is locked in. then you have samardzija. you already have hammel and hendricks. you're talking about the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation. you don't need anyone locked in there long term either. you can just churn those spots with buy low guys and guys you luck into from the minors or whatever.

 

hell, even if you don't get samardzija, i'd rather sign lackey or leake (or kazmir?) than trade one of our hitters for some of the pitchers being talked about.

 

We don't need but one guy, but I'd definitely feel more comfortable with two. Counting on health is risky enough with pitching, probably more so coming off how healthy we stayed this past year. That said, we could add depth with the Mastersons of the world and I'd be quite fine honestly, after adding one of the group you mentioned.

 

i mean, yeah...trading anything of real worth for a 6th starter (or even to upgrade over the pretty strong 4th and 5th we'd already have) seems like a poor use of resources.

[toonsterwu]

Well, as I've noted elsewhere, I'm not too keen on most of the trade talks (Miller/Teheran), as I've said you can probably go bargain hunting this year and find similar production.

 

Specifically, I am intrigued enough with Porcello/Miley/Joe Kelly (more intrigued with Porcello than the other two on talent, but Porcello has the cost issue to factor in) to want to ponder a trade. Part of that is because I do think the cost on those guys, if they are made available, might be cheaper than some of the rumored names out there, partly because of Boston's stocked rotation, and partly because, they are all, to an extent, coming off down years while still showing some levels of promise (Porcello/Kelly moreso than Miley). Now, I have been partial to Kelly for awhile, as I was always fascinated with him coming up as a power sinker guy, but he's got a big time live fastball and if you can find a mix between the groundball guy early in his career with the development of his arsenal, I think you can still find a mid-rotation arm. Porcello's an interesting case of a guy who probably got overpaid by Cherington, but really, has a good strong arsenal (would like to see him go back to the 2-seamer a tiny bit more) and I gotta think he can reverse that HR rate trend. Miley would be more a depth acquisition.

 

Look, fundamentally, if any of these guys cost more than ... what's warranted (I don't know how to define that right now ... I'm not suggesting we part with Gleyber Torres in any deal for them, to put a name to it), then no. I'm just looking at who I perceive to be buy low candidates that might add good depth because for all the talk about a stable five after a FA signing ... what's the depth behind that? There really isn't much. If you can get say, a Joe Kelly, and he loses the battle for a rotation spot, you can plop him in the pen (where he might be better suited, and where many thought he would end up while coming up, until he showed a bit more development).

 

To reframe, my first preference is to simply sign whatever arms we need. If they want 2 solid FA starters, great. If they want 1, and a couple bargain gambles to compete, okay. We can't really go into spring with just a FA signing and hoping for depth to emerge.

[Cubbie Swagger]

My biggest problem with losing out on Price and Zimmerman is that it pretty much ensures in my mind that we are not getting another ace this offseason. Greinke will probably go back to the Dodgers, and Cueto is probably gonna get stupid money from somebody that we aren't willing to pay. If we end up trading Starlin for Tyson Ross or something along those lines, does that win us a WS?

 

Sometimes I wonder why money is even an issue at all. We're talking about the Cubs winning a world series here. THE CUBS. Is that not priceless?

 

Obviously, this is why I don't hold a position in any major league front office.

[Guest]

My biggest problem with losing out on Price and Zimmerman is that it pretty much ensures in my mind that we are not getting another ace this offseason. Greinke will probably go back to the Dodgers, and Cueto is probably gonna get stupid money from somebody that we aren't willing to pay. If we end up trading Starlin for Tyson Ross or something along those lines, does that win us a WS?

 

Sometimes I wonder why money is even an issue at all. We're talking about the Cubs winning a world series here. THE CUBS. Is that not priceless?

 

Obviously, this is why I don't hold a position in any major league front office.

 

no move is winning us a WS. this team is probably good enough to compete for the division as is. if not, it's really close (with CF being the biggest question mark in that case) anything we add is just going to add to that.

 

this might sound like a copout, but the moves that will help us win a world series are the ones that will allow us to make the playoffs the most consistently over the next several years.

 

and since when do teams need 3 "aces" to win a world series, anyway?

[StylesClash]

Judging by Kershaw, Scherzer, and now this, priority 1 should be locking up Jake.

 

Not if you're Jake.

 

Because turning down contract extensions from Theo turned out so well for Garza and Shark. When it comes to starting pitchers being offered long term contracts during arbitration years, there is absolutely something to be said for the expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just the opposite. Arrieta should be lining up to get an extension right now and the Cubs should stay far, far away.

[SouthSideRyan]

Judging by Kershaw, Scherzer, and now this, priority 1 should be locking up Jake.

 

Not if you're Jake.

 

Because turning down contract extensions from Theo turned out so well for Garza and Shark. When it comes to starting pitchers being offered long term contracts during arbitration years, there is absolutely something to be said for the expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

 

Samardzija was awful this past year, and is lined up to get close to the same he would've with the extension, or he'll have the option to take a short-term deal and make bank the following year. Garza lost what 20M? I mean, is the thought process here that extensions from Theo are more valuable than extensions from other FOs? Or just that all pitchers should take extensions? Turning down contract extensions sure seemed to work out well for David Price, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Jordan ZImmermann, Clayton Kershaw, etc. Chris Sale could be looking at free agency next year and a 200M+ contract. Instead he'll be under control for 3/38 through his age 30 season.

[sneakypower]

Judging by Kershaw, Scherzer, and now this, priority 1 should be locking up Jake.

 

Not if you're Jake.

 

Because turning down contract extensions from Theo turned out so well for Garza and Shark. When it comes to starting pitchers being offered long term contracts during arbitration years, there is absolutely something to be said for the expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

 

Samardzija was awful this past year, and is lined up to get close to the same he would've with the extension, or he'll have the option to take a short-term deal and make bank the following year. Garza lost what 20M? I mean, is the thought process here that extensions from Theo are more valuable than extensions from other FOs? Or just that all pitchers should take extensions? Turning down contract extensions sure seemed to work out well for David Price, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Jordan ZImmermann, Clayton Kershaw, etc. Chris Sale could be looking at free agency next year and a 200M+ contract. Instead he'll be under control for 3/38 through his age 30 season.

iirc estimates were in the 5/90 neighborhood, i'd be stunned if he gets that with the 1st rounder (worth ~$20m) also attached

 

you're also discounting the good fortune he's enjoyed to make it to this point injury-free or he might have been in Justin Masterson territory for striking out on a real payday

[SouthSideRyan]

Judging by Kershaw, Scherzer, and now this, priority 1 should be locking up Jake.

 

Not if you're Jake.

 

Because turning down contract extensions from Theo turned out so well for Garza and Shark. When it comes to starting pitchers being offered long term contracts during arbitration years, there is absolutely something to be said for the expression "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

 

Samardzija was awful this past year, and is lined up to get close to the same he would've with the extension, or he'll have the option to take a short-term deal and make bank the following year. Garza lost what 20M? I mean, is the thought process here that extensions from Theo are more valuable than extensions from other FOs? Or just that all pitchers should take extensions? Turning down contract extensions sure seemed to work out well for David Price, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, Jordan ZImmermann, Clayton Kershaw, etc. Chris Sale could be looking at free agency next year and a 200M+ contract. Instead he'll be under control for 3/38 through his age 30 season.

iirc estimates were in the 5/90 neighborhood, i'd be stunned if he gets that with the 1st rounder (worth ~$20m) also attached

 

you're also discounting the good fortune he's enjoyed to make it to this point injury-free or he might have been in Justin Masterson territory for striking out on a real payday

 

I recall 5/80(though I believe this included an arb year), and fangraphs has him at 4/64, so 5/74 with the last year of arb.

[Cubbie Swagger]

I will be pretty disappointed if Shark is our top FA signing.

 

I will be more than disappointed if he shits the bed like he did for the Sox.

[UMFan83]

 

Damn only $56 million short

[Clem Fandango]

Was he going to share the part that was creative?

[Sammy Sofa]

Was he going to share the part that was creative?

 

http://i.giphy.com/VmhozsNNSsuwE.gif

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I assume that means "backloading" and thus we were even further in NPV.

 

*shrug* We aren't a team that can do massive contracts year after year. Lester was ours for now.

[Backtobanks]

I assume that means "backloading" and thus we were even further in NPV.

 

*shrug* We aren't a team that can do massive contracts year after year. Lester was ours for now.

 

That's why I don't understand so many posters getting excited about Heyward or Gordon. I figure we have around $14 million after signing Lackey with a few more holes to fill, so I can't see Heyward/Gordon playing for a backloaded contract paying about $10 million next year. Also, I don't understand the closer rumors, unless it's part of a package deal getting a CF and/or SP also.

[Clem Fandango]

I assume that means "backloading" and thus we were even further in NPV.

 

*shrug* We aren't a team that can do massive contracts year after year. Lester was ours for now.

 

That's why I don't understand so many posters getting excited about Heyward or Gordon. I figure we have around $14 million after signing Lackey with a few more holes to fill, so I can't see Heyward/Gordon playing for a backloaded contract paying about $10 million next year. Also, I don't understand the closer rumors, unless it's part of a package deal getting a CF and/or SP also.

 

Playing for a lower aav early in the contract probably doesn't mean much to the player if you meet their overall cost demands. Unless they're an egomaniac who demands to be the highest paid player at their position, as long as they sign that contract they're getting paid and probably will be open to being flexible to helping their team be successful early on to be in a better position to win, I would assume.

[sneakypower]

Dan Rosenheck did a great essay on opt-outs

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/12/contracts-baseball

 

So far, opt-out clauses have tended to benefit the teams that offered them as well as their recipients: in five of six cases, players’ production in the seasons they were eligible to walk away from has not been worth their scheduled salaries. But six examples is far from an iron-clad sample size. Clubs that are counting on opt-outs to shorten risky deals are assuming that there will always be a greater fool willing to pay a fortune for an ageing star’s past performance.

 

[...]

 

Whether contracts like Mr Price’s and Mr Stanton’s turn out to be peaches or lemons depends largely on whether profligate general managers are merely endangered or outright extinct by the time their opt-out clauses come due.

[jersey cubs fan]

This was a very smart signing to avoid by the Cubs.

[Bull]

This was a very smart signing to avoid by the Cubs.

This is ... yes.