2015 Cubs-Related Trade Deadline Rumor Thread

[Clem Fandango]

the likeliest thing to happen is we approximate the Montero return possibly even post-waiver-deadline for somebody like Ian Kennedy, and do little else

 

holy [expletive] kennedy has a 20% HR/FB

 

Shields has a 17.9% HR/FB. There's something screwy going on with Kennedy and Shields. They have the highest HR/FB rates of their careers right now, despite most of their other peripherals (GB%, LD%, FB%, etc.) all being relatively similar to previous seasons. Shields you might could pin on his control issues (highest BB% of his career) and drop in velocity (nearly a full mph on all his pitches), but for the most part all of his peripherals (as well as Kennedy's) are all in line with career norms. There's no huge shift in most of those numbers that should suggest a huge drop in performance, except in HR/FB, which is inexplicably high this year. And it's not some weird thing where they had some bad games outside of Petco. Kennedy has given up 14 HR's at home vs. 8 on the road. Shields has given up 10 at home vs 11 on the road. So it's not like they had some bad outings in Colorado and Arizona or anything, they're giving up dongs at Petco, too. It's odd. Their SIERRA's and xFIP's are still showing they're doing far better than their numbers indicate.

 

Kennedy

SIERRA: 3.73

xFIP: 3.84

FIP: 5.25

ERA: 4.58

 

Shields:

SIERRA: 3.30

xFIP: 3.30

FIP: 4.11

ERA: 3.77

 

So yeah, Petco is having an odd effect on these guys this year. To a lesser degree Craig Kimbrel is experiencing the same thing.

[sontensei]

the likeliest thing to happen is we approximate the Montero return possibly even post-waiver-deadline for somebody like Ian Kennedy, and do little else

 

holy [expletive] kennedy has a 20% HR/FB

 

Shields has a 17.9% HR/FB. There's something screwy going on with Kennedy and Shields. They have the highest HR/FB rates of their careers right now, despite most of their other peripherals (GB%, LD%, FB%, etc.) all being relatively similar to previous seasons. Shields you might could pin on his control issues (highest BB% of his career) and drop in velocity (nearly a full mph on all his pitches), but for the most part all of his peripherals (as well as Kennedy's) are all in line with career norms. There's no huge shift in most of those numbers that should suggest a huge drop in performance, except in HR/FB, which is inexplicably high this year. And it's not some weird thing where they had some bad games outside of Petco. Kennedy has given up 14 HR's at home vs. 8 on the road. Shields has given up 10 at home vs 11 on the road. So it's not like they had some bad outings in Colorado and Arizona or anything, they're giving up dongs at Petco, too. It's odd. Their SIERRA's and xFIP's are still showing they're doing far better than their numbers indicate.

 

Kennedy

SIERRA: 3.73

xFIP: 3.84

FIP: 5.25

ERA: 4.58

 

Shields:

SIERRA: 3.30

xFIP: 3.30

FIP: 4.11

ERA: 3.77

 

So yeah, Petco is having an odd effect on these guys this year. To a lesser degree Craig Kimbrel is experiencing the same thing.

 

Its interesting some of the parks are playing the opposite.. Wrigley has been like a pitchers park, PETCO a hitters park, the climate change is real. we even see it in baseball, i guess

[sontensei]

Why do those seem like the two likeliest options?

 

Because God forbid they actually dare to move any of their precious, precious prospects when they don't have a 15 game-lead at the top of the division.

 

Why do you want to go back to the Jim Hendry Way so badly?

 

And nothing but gigantic contracts as far as the eye can see!

 

I dont think it would be going back to the Jim Hendry way we already have how many homegrown guys on the big league roster?

 

Why does it have to be an extreme "sell off alll the kidsssss" or "oh no, never!!!! i will never trade a piece unless i fleece them!"

[Guancous]

I can't wait for everyone's reaction after the Cubs do something random like trading fair value for Trevor Bauer.

[sneakypower]

Shields has a 17.9% HR/FB. There's something screwy going on with Kennedy and Shields. They have the highest HR/FB rates of their careers right now, despite most of their other peripherals (GB%, LD%, FB%, etc.) all being relatively similar to previous seasons. Shields you might could pin on his control issues (highest BB% of his career) and drop in velocity (nearly a full mph on all his pitches), but for the most part all of his peripherals (as well as Kennedy's) are all in line with career norms. There's no huge shift in most of those numbers that should suggest a huge drop in performance, except in HR/FB, which is inexplicably high this year. And it's not some weird thing where they had some bad games outside of Petco. Kennedy has given up 14 HR's at home vs. 8 on the road. Shields has given up 10 at home vs 11 on the road. So it's not like they had some bad outings in Colorado and Arizona or anything, they're giving up dongs at Petco, too. It's odd. Their SIERRA's and xFIP's are still showing they're doing far better than their numbers indicate.

 

Kennedy

SIERRA: 3.73

xFIP: 3.84

FIP: 5.25

ERA: 4.58

 

Shields:

SIERRA: 3.30

xFIP: 3.30

FIP: 4.11

ERA: 3.77

 

So yeah, Petco is having an odd effect on these guys this year. To a lesser degree Craig Kimbrel is experiencing the same thing.

amazingly Petco is 17th in P park factor (Wrigley is #4)

 

i keep forgetting about Shields; they should be rightly viewing him as basically a salary dump and if that's the case he's infinitely preferable to Cole Hamels

[abuck1220]

if the cubs didn't want to give him 4 years before 2015, why would they want to pay him through those 4 years (while only benefiting from the last 2 months of the first/in theory best year) now? and give up stuff to get him?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Anyone checking O's Hangout to see when we get Brian Roberts?

 

Not until they stop acting like they're going to get Pie AND Hill, that's for sure.

[KingCubsFan]

Cubs apparently talking to Rays about Nate Karns.

[sneakypower]

if the cubs didn't want to give him 4 years before 2015, why would they want to pay him through those 4 years (while only benefiting from the last 2 months of the first/in theory best year) now? and give up stuff to get him?

different information became available:

 

his peripherals have improved, and nobody has panned out from the Jacob Turner/Travis Wood/Edwin Jackson/Tsyoshi Wada/Felix Doubront/Dan Straily?* group

 

*don't remember the timing of that, if Shields signed before the Fowler trade

 

edit: didn't realize how backloaded his deal was - 10 / 21 / 21 / 21, so maybe that's not a realistic option

[sneakypower]

Cubs apparently talking to Rays about Nate Karns.

http://img.pandawhale.com/89952-master-strokes-beard-gif-Kill-bdei.gif

[Bryants Disco Ball]

The tough part about this particular trade deadline, more specifically if we get a rental, is that the possibility exists the Cubs could be seven or eight games out of a wild card spot by next Sunday. I'm not real confident playing seven straight games against the Pirates and Giants right now. Hell, I actually think we are going to struggle against the Brewers.

 

This obviously doesn't matter if it's a Tyson Ross type.

[RammyFanny]

anyone have the tweet showing our interest in Karns? I'm sure we are interested, but I haven't seen anything connecting us outside of Brett saying we should be interested if he's available.

[Banedon]

Yeah, seeing stuff about Rays listening on Karns, but nothing with teams attached.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I know nothing about Karns. Would that be a good pickup?

[Deeg]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo 12m12 minutes ago

Chris Cotillo retweeted Jeff Passan

Keep hearing Rays would have to be "overwhelmed" to deal Karns, considering control. But they are listening.

 

 

Oh well - once Joe Blanton came off the board, the dream was dead anyway - anyone else would have been a hollow second-best...

[Tryptamine]

I know nothing about Karns. Would that be a good pickup?

 

27 years old

 

2015- 3.37ERA 3.74FIP 3.78xFIP 8.3K/9 1.5fWAR

He's nothing special, but he'd be a better option than what they have at 5. The big problem is that he doesn't go very deep into games. He's averaging about 5 2/3IP per start.

[BrockLanders]

Tampa has been pulling him with fairly low pitch counts though.

 

Karns doesn't excite me because his best attribute is being cheap for a long time. Seems a better fit for a team like the Rays tbh.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll forever confuse him with Nate Bland so hard pass.

[sontensei]

I know nothing about Karns. Would that be a good pickup?

 

27 years old

 

2015- 3.37ERA 3.74FIP 3.78xFIP 8.3K/9 1.5fWAR

He's nothing special, but he'd be a better option than what they have at 5. The big problem is that he doesn't go very deep into games. He's averaging about 5 2/3IP per start.

 

sounds like Kyle Hendricks who strikes out a few more guys

[BigSlick]

So should we expect the Cubs to make a deal now that the most high-profile targets have been gobbled up? I guess Shields is still on the radar?

[Guancous]

Nate Karns owns the first half's most improved pitch: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-first-halfs-most-improved-pitch/

[Tryptamine]

So should we expect the Cubs to make a deal now that the most high-profile targets have been gobbled up? I guess Shields is still on the radar?

 

At this point, Kennedy/Gallardo/Leake/Haren are probably the options.

[sneakypower]

So should we expect the Cubs to make a deal now that the most high-profile targets have been gobbled up? I guess Shields is still on the radar?

 

At this point, Kennedy/Gallardo/Leake/Haren are probably the options.

with the Hamels acquisition, i really expect TEX to attempt a YoGa extension

 

Mike Leake is the dream now

[Tryptamine]

So should we expect the Cubs to make a deal now that the most high-profile targets have been gobbled up? I guess Shields is still on the radar?

 

At this point, Kennedy/Gallardo/Leake/Haren are probably the options.

with the Hamels acquisition, i really expect TEX to attempt a YoGa extension

 

Mike Leake is the dream now

 

I'll take Kennedy of the remaining options. His last 5 or 6 starts have been good.

[UMFan83]

So should we expect the Cubs to make a deal now that the most high-profile targets have been gobbled up? I guess Shields is still on the radar?

 

At this point, Kennedy/Gallardo/Leake/Haren are probably the options.

 

Is Ross off the market? That still seems like the most likely unless I missed some news