Cubs 2015 #15 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #15 prospect.

 

Cast votes for the players you think would be deserving at #15. You can vote for up to two players. This is done because at this point, there will start to be greater diversity in whom people may feel is deserving. Voting for multiple players helps to gain greater resolution in the voting when there are many choices and relatively few voters. Ideally, the votes would be weighted, but that isn't possible with the board software.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

#5 CJ Edwards

#6 Billy McKinney

#7 Gleyber Torres

#8 Albert Almora

#9 Pierce Johnson

#10 Duane Underwood

#11 Jen-Ho Tseng

#12 Jake Stinnett

#13 Mark Zagunis

#14 Eloy Jimenez

[Guest]

I went with V and Caratini

[ctcf]

Sands and Vogelbach.

[craig]

Sands and Rivero.

[davell]

Sands and Vogelbach.

 

Same.

[rawaction]

Sands and Rivero.

 

Same. Would have reverse order though.

[Guest]

Rivero and Caratini.

[Cubswin11]

Caratini and Sands

[sneakypower]

I went with V and Caratini

same

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll admit that seeing Rivero cut so quickly gives me a lot of pause.

[toonsterwu]

I'll admit that seeing Rivero cut so quickly gives me a lot of pause.

 

Out of curiosity ... why? I think he might be a tad over-hyped by some Cubs fans, but he's still a good relief prospect unless I missed something. Admittedly, I haven't been following things all that closely.

 

Anyhow, point is, I'm curious why his getting cut early should give pause because ... I didn't think there was any way he was going to break camp on the 25 man. You have what, 4-5 righties in place for the pen already. You aren't going to use him as a long man. The guys that tend to stick around longer than expected are the guys whose profiles fit for that long man or lefty pen arm role. (as a ridiculous total side note, I would really like to get McKirahan back, although am not expecting it). Sending Rivero early to minor league camp with a prescription for what he needs to do early in the season to get back up sounds fine and shouldn't, unless I missed something, be viewed as an indictment of his ability, IMO.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A lot of my belief in his value is based on readiness to contribute to an MLB team ASAP. If he can't even make it through the first round of cuts, then they don't seem to think he's all that close.

[Clem Fandango]

Poor Vogelbach. Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.

 

#12 Prospect votes:

Stinnet - 40

Jimenez - 18

Vogelbach - 15

Rivero - 15

Sands - 6

Zagunis - 5

Caratini - 4

 

#13 Prospect votes:

Zagunis - 25

Jimenez - 16

Vogelbach - 16

Rivero - 14

Sands - 12

Caratini - 6

 

#14 Prospect votes:

Jimenez - 30

Vogelbach - 18

Sands - 15

Rivero - 11

Caratini - 8

 

#15 Prospect votes (currently)

Sands - 17

Vogelbach - 16

Caratini - 12

Rivero - 12

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I went with V and Caratini

[Some Guy]

Zagunis's leap from 6th in the #12 voting to 1st in the #13 voting is weird. As are all the Vogelvotes.

[Clem Fandango]

Zagunis's leap from 6th in the #12 voting to 1st in the #13 voting is weird. As are all the Vogelvotes.

 

It could be assumed that the majority of those who voted for Stinnett then voted for Zagunis, while many people who were voting for both Vogelbach and Stinnett then changed their votes to Vogelbach and Zagunis.

 

Given how many votes Vogelbach had at #12, it's surprising he hasn't been selected yet. Especially when Sands only got 6 votes 3 rounds ago and now he's beating out Vogelbach who had more votes than he did in each of the past 3 rounds.

[craig]

A lot of my belief in his value is based on readiness to contribute to an MLB team ASAP. If he can't even make it through the first round of cuts, then they don't seem to think he's all that close.

 

That reflects some of my thinking, too.

[craig]

Zagunis's leap from 6th in the #12 voting to 1st in the #13 voting is weird. As are all the Vogelvotes.

 

It could be assumed that the majority of those who voted for Stinnett then voted for Zagunis, while many people who were voting for both Vogelbach and Stinnett then changed their votes to Vogelbach and Zagunis.

 

Given how many votes Vogelbach had at #12, it's surprising he hasn't been selected yet. Especially when Sands only got 6 votes 3 rounds ago and now he's beating out Vogelbach who had more votes than he did in each of the past 3 rounds.

 

Maybe Vogelbach is something of a bipolar guy in fan perspectives? 10-15 posters seem to like him a lot, and keep voting for him. But those who don't, keep NOT voting for him? For me, most rounds there are guys others are voting for that I'm not voting for yet, but I feel "pretty soon I'll vote for him too, just not yet. But the arguments in favor are pretty persuasive." But Vogelbach, I haven't felt that way yet (and probably won't for another 5 votes if he remains unelected that long). For me, the puzzle is why he was already a bridesmaid at 12 already.

 

Hope he has a breakout season this year, though. Lot of smart posters voting for him, so I'm probably missing something they are seeing.

[SABR Gamer]

I just can't get that excited about a guy with his defensive profile and a .429 SLG in high-A.

 

He needs to hit a lot more to be more appealing than at least a few more of the guys left on the list. I don't have much faith in him becoming even an average regular.

[Clem Fandango]

I just can't get that excited about a guy with his defensive profile and a .429 SLG in high-A.

 

He needs to hit a lot more to be more appealing than at least a few more of the guys left on the list. I don't have much faith in him becoming even an average regular.

 

FWIW the difference between Vogelbach last year and Vogelbach this year was basically 8 hits.

 

Catg: G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	
2013: 131	566	483	68	137	23	0	19	76	5	4	73	89	.284	.375	.449	.824	
2014: 132	560	482	71	129	28	1	16	76	4	4	66	91	.268	.357	.429	.787

 

Despite having more XBH, but 8 fewer hits (3 fewer HR), his slugging was 20 points lower and his OPS was 37 points lower. Vogelbach was actually very consistent with his performance from year to year. And he was technically younger for his performance levels this year than he was last year (-1.5 in 2013 vs. -1.7 this year according to BR). The only thing that apparently drastically changed for Vogelbach between 2013 and 2014 was that he lost 30 pounds in the offseason to increase his versatility.

 

I don't remember hearing a lot about Vogelbach's defense this season, but I'm sure it didn't get much better if it did so he was basically the same guy. Maybe that wasn't good enough for most people. He was promoted a little aggressively to High A in 2013 (he was nearly 3 years younger than the average age in 2013 there), and spent his entire season there in 2014.

 

I really don't think Vogelbach is any worse or better than people think he may or may not be. I think the oversaturation of amazing hitting prospects we've had over the past year and a half affects that. We added Russell, McKinney, and Schwarber while seeing impressive debuts from Torres and Zagunis, along with the domination of Bryant and Soler, and the graduations of Baez and Alcantara. As a result Vogelbach's hitting skills look like rat ass comparatively speaking and I think people are not evaluating him objectively. Those 8 fewer hits give his slash line a stark contrast, but in reality he wasn't that much different from last season when he was our 8th best prospect. And some of the guys we've put ahead of him are there solely on scouting reports and promise, while Vogelbach basically did exactly what he did last year and at a level that he was nearly 2 years younger for.

 

I've seen a lot of general opinion that he took a step back, but did he really? Or did he just take a step back because so many other prospects took a step forward? He's 22 and he's likely to start the year in AA, where he'll be about 2 years young for the league. That's a pretty damn good bat to make it that far at that age for someone with no defensive value, but somehow he's not a good enough hitter to a lot of people here? Interesting. If people want to deduct him points for pretty much being a future DH, that's understandable, but to say he's not hitting enough is just subjective analysis, IMO.

[craig]

Thanks, Logan, good post. Your arguments are that basically Vogelbach was the same guy. Basically the same guy minus 3 HR's and 8 hits. Same guy, very consistent from year to year, so that he didn't really take a step back.

 

I've got him 21 on my personal list that I made up some time ago, and I think I have him a little too high. (I've heard some positive things about some other guys I had behind him then, so I'd probably drop him a few more spots if I was re-doing it today.) So just a couple of thoughts on why I don't have him higher, or don't think he should be as high as 15.

 

1. He didn't take a step forward. It's not that he took a step back and wasn't the same guy. It's that he WAS the same guy, and DIDN'T take a step FORWARD. To be a top 8-12 guy last year was predicated on the projection that he'd get better. 2013 had been his first exposure to full-season; he was adjusting. 2013 he was asked to work on something. 2013 he got tired. 2013 was his first year playing in the cold. He was going to do some major body-improvement. With less weight, his bat speed might improve or he might more easily get around on inside fastballs. With practice and less weight his defense might improve. Scouts view him and project him as a power hitter. There were a lot of possible factors a year ago to rationalize why his 2013 performance hadn't been more excellent, and why it might become significantly more excellent in 2014 and beyond. As with any prospect, the ranking involves projection. Ranking him favorably then was fundamentally predicated on the projection that he'd get better. But, he didn't. He was the same guy. And that guy, in my subjective valuation, isn't a top-20 guy in this particular system given the depth of other interesting guys. He was the same guy, which isn't good enough unless he gets better; and other people passed him up. Subjective, for sure. For me, personally, the "who would I more regret losing in a trade" subjective question is one I use.

 

2. Being 21 in our system is good. Our system is good. Anybody who makes our top-30 is a player who, if things go right, has a chance to be quite useful. That includes Vogelbach. I'm not arguing that because he was good-but-not-good-enough in 2013, and remained good-but-not-good-enough in 2014 doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance to step it up future. Guys often plateau for a while, and then take a jump later. That could certainly happen for him, and I'm dearly hoping it does for him in AA. So, my putting him in the 20's isn't writing him off at all. He's got a chance. Maybe outside the FSL, he'll jump to a 26-HR guy this year and we'll love him.

 

3. Age-per-level. I'm not factoring in the age-per-level thing quite like you are. I don't think he was particularly young at all for a prospect in Daytona. Yes, there is an average-age-for-level. But that average is factoring in all the players, most of whom are not real major-league prospects. If you look through the Midwest League top-20, or FSL top-20, it's totally normal that the better prospects are years younger than league average. So, compared to respected big-league prospects, I think Vogelbach's ages these last two years have been fairly typical, and not notably young at all. Again, I'm not at all suggesting he's too old to improve. He might. But, he has to, and he hasn't yet. So just staying the same isn't what he needs; he needs to get notably better.

 

4. As you noted, there don't seem to be reports of notable defensive improvement, either.

[Clem Fandango]

Fair enough, and valid. Although the not taking a step forward, could be interpreted differently. Couldn't putting up the same numbers at the next highest level be interpreted as stepping forward? Many guys get worse when they experience the next level and need to make adjustments to catch up. If Vogelbach made adjustments, he did enough to wind up with very similar numbers to his previous year, remaining consistent. That could be viewed just as much as a positive as it can be a negative, can it not? What if he ends this year with a .272/.363/.439/.802 slash line at AA with 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a 68:89 BB:K ratio at the age of 22? More of the same, but at another advanced level in his first go around. Would that be a step forward or a step backward?

[toonsterwu]

A lot of my belief in his value is based on readiness to contribute to an MLB team ASAP. If he can't even make it through the first round of cuts, then they don't seem to think he's all that close.

 

I get that, but I'm not so sure him being sent down early should be viewed as a sign of his readiness (or not). Again, you guys are following much closer than I am, so maybe his stuff has diminished and I'm not aware of it. That said, there simply, on paper, didn't seem to be a spot for him on the major league roster anyways. I guess I'm just not that concerned with it.

 

Now, in saying that, I didn't think he was some sort of lock-down definite future late inning arm. Nice relief profile, with a shot at late inning usage. So in that sense, maybe my preconceptions of him make it so that I view this differently.

 

_____

 

On Vogelbach, in all honesty, I would have him above at least one guy on the list, and maybe up to 3. I haven't made an actual list in ages, but glancing at the names, I think he'd go mid-teens for me. I simply think Caratini is being slept on a bit on this list (still not sold Zagunis should be ahead of him when Caratini is, by most accounts, more polished as a receiver), and Sands profile is very good for a lefty arm.

[craig]

Fair enough, and valid. Although the not taking a step forward, could be interpreted differently. Couldn't putting up the same numbers at the next highest level be interpreted as stepping forward? Many guys get worse when they experience the next level and need to make adjustments to catch up. If Vogelbach made adjustments, he did enough to wind up with very similar numbers to his previous year, remaining consistent. That could be viewed just as much as a positive as it can be a negative, can it not? What if he ends this year with a .272/.363/.439/.802 slash line at AA with 17 homers, 70 RBI, and a 68:89 BB:K ratio at the age of 22? More of the same, but at another advanced level in his first go around. Would that be a step forward or a step backward?

 

For me, I'd view that as a negative. If he stays as a flat .800-type OPS guy, or the .787 he was this past year, I'd consider that a disappointment and it wouldn't motivate me to jump him in my rankings. It would motivate me to drop him further.

 

I don't think his current general level, .270/.360/.440, is that good for a minor-league 1B. You've got to do better than that in the minors, for a 1B. My view is that the biggest jump by far is the big-league jump. So, if he spends a couple more years doing steady-state .800 with .440-slugging in AA and AAA, my expectation is that it would then drop following a big-league promotion. So for a big-league DH/1B, I don't see a ton of value. We don't have the DH in our league, and AL teams don't trade a lot for DH/1B's who project to hit .750-OPS in the majors.

 

If the assumption is that he could not only hold steady-state through AA and AAA, but then could also hold at .800 in the majors, I'd be more positive. But it's so common that guys have diminished stats in the majors compared to minors (many exceptions, for sure), that I think just hanging out at .440-ish slugging in the minors isn't going to produce much value for us in the majors. That's my thinking, at any rate.

 

The trade market for guys who might hit 15-18 HR's while playing weak defensive 1B just isn't that hot, I don't think. If he can boost that so he looks more like a 22-34 HR guy, that's a somewhat different story. Maybe jumping out of the FSL and that's exactly the kind of power we'll see this year. I'm hoping.

[Warpticon]

I just can't get that excited about a guy with his defensive profile and a .429 SLG in high-A.

 

He needs to hit a lot more to be more appealing than at least a few more of the guys left on the list. I don't have much faith in him becoming even an average regular.

 

FWIW the difference between Vogelbach last year and Vogelbach this year was basically 8 hits.

 

Catg: G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	
2013: 131	566	483	68	137	23	0	19	76	5	4	73	89	.284	.375	.449	.824	
2014: 132	560	482	71	129	28	1	16	76	4	4	66	91	.268	.357	.429	.787

 

Despite having more XBH, but 8 fewer hits (3 fewer HR), his slugging was 20 points lower and his OPS was 37 points lower. Vogelbach was actually very consistent with his performance from year to year. And he was technically younger for his performance levels this year than he was last year (-1.5 in 2013 vs. -1.7 this year according to BR). The only thing that apparently drastically changed for Vogelbach between 2013 and 2014 was that he lost 30 pounds in the offseason to increase his versatility.

 

I don't remember hearing a lot about Vogelbach's defense this season, but I'm sure it didn't get much better if it did so he was basically the same guy. Maybe that wasn't good enough for most people. He was promoted a little aggressively to High A in 2013 (he was nearly 3 years younger than the average age in 2013 there), and spent his entire season there in 2014.

 

I really don't think Vogelbach is any worse or better than people think he may or may not be. I think the oversaturation of amazing hitting prospects we've had over the past year and a half affects that. We added Russell, McKinney, and Schwarber while seeing impressive debuts from Torres and Zagunis, along with the domination of Bryant and Soler, and the graduations of Baez and Alcantara. As a result Vogelbach's hitting skills look like rat ass comparatively speaking and I think people are not evaluating him objectively. Those 8 fewer hits give his slash line a stark contrast, but in reality he wasn't that much different from last season when he was our 8th best prospect. And some of the guys we've put ahead of him are there solely on scouting reports and promise, while Vogelbach basically did exactly what he did last year and at a level that he was nearly 2 years younger for.

 

I've seen a lot of general opinion that he took a step back, but did he really? Or did he just take a step back because so many other prospects took a step forward? He's 22 and he's likely to start the year in AA, where he'll be about 2 years young for the league. That's a pretty damn good bat to make it that far at that age for someone with no defensive value, but somehow he's not a good enough hitter to a lot of people here? Interesting. If people want to deduct him points for pretty much being a future DH, that's understandable, but to say he's not hitting enough is just subjective analysis, IMO.

 

I think it's less about a step back than it is the absence of a step forward. As a big guy with a weak defensive profile, the expectation was that he would be carried by his bat. His bat has been solid, but I think most people expected a bit more power out of it by 22. The absurd level of the power bats in the Cubs system over the past couple of years may have skewed expectations a bit as well.