Cubs 2015 #8 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #8 prospect.

 

Later on, we'll move to a system of multiple votes, but I think it makes sense at the top to just vote for a single player.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

#5 CJ Edwards

#6 Billy McKinney

#7 Gleyber Torres

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Armando Rivero with an early lead in the voting.

[Guest]

Armando Rivero with an early lead in the voting.

Almora ties it up

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The only blown lead Ar-Riv will ever have.

[Guest]

I'm expecting a quick victory here, then it gets more interesting.

[sneakypower]

Pierce Johnson

[Guest]

Pierce Johnson

If Pierce Johnson only pitched to Almora, where would the BB% stabilize?

[sneakypower]

Pierce Johnson

If Pierce Johnson only pitched to Almora, where would the BB% stabilize?

i throw out the early-season stuff, knowing he had an injury, and his trajectory and profile reminds me some of Matt Clement

[davell]

If I were voting for 3 right now, it'd be Johnson, Almora, and Underwood.

[Some Guy]

Lookin forward to the reasons people give next round on why Johnson or Underwood.

[rawaction]

If I were voting for 3 right now, it'd be Johnson, Almora, and Underwood.

 

You are so smart.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Tseng.

[davell]

If I were voting for 3 right now, it'd be Johnson, Almora, and Underwood.

 

You are so smart.

 

Gooney mentioned a drop off, that's where mine is. No clue after that, Im leaning Stinnett or Jimenez, I think.

[Guest]

Part of me really wants to vote Stinnett, but I'll go with Johnson here. Between he and Almora he's had more success at higher levels, and while Almora could be better if he puts it all together, Johnson is no slouch and his problems are more manageable than Almora's.

[davell]

Kyle bringing up CF Barney for Almora sadly feels realistic in some ways. I do hope the hit tool comes back and he at least does have some pop. I'm hoping he rebounds and his family issues from last year actually did have an effect on his play.

 

McLeod's comments on Stinnett have me very interested in him though.

[Tryptamine]

I went with Almora but it's probably draft bias. If Pierce and Underwood were prospects in other farms along with Almora, I would probably have them first.

[Guest]

Tseng is a sleeper. I'm really looking forward to seeing his progress. Edited February 28, 2015 by CubinNY

[toonsterwu]

Almora, for reasons listed in the previous threads

 

Behind Almora, I would go with the upside of Underwood over Johnson, as I think Underwood's ceiling is better, and I'm a touch hopeful that last season was legitimate progress. Some combination of Johnson/Stinnett/Caratini would likely compete after that.

[craig]

Almora. Excellent defender, good contact gift, bat speed to handle big-league velocity, good size and excellent power potential. Doesn't have star-projection offensively, but we're talking #8 prospect here.

 

His potential success is especially significant because currently he's unique in the system as a legit defensive CF. There are various guys who might end up filling LF (Schwarber, Bryant, McKinney, Fowler, etc...); 3B (Bryant, Baez, Castro, Russell....); SS (Castro, Russell, Baez, Torres...); and 2B. But there don't seem to be a lot of current in-system alternatives in CF. So if Almora would emerge as a legit solid-average starter in center, that would be very helpful. Obviously the value of having him succeed doesn't impact his odds of doing so, but there seems to be more at stake on whether he succeeds or fails than with some of the other guys in this neighborhood.

 

I know this will sound lame, but I admit to being influenced by what other people think. Especially the Cubs scouting/farm departments themselves. There seem to be a lot of intelligent analysts and scouts who still rank Almora within the top 6 prospects within the system, and even within the top 100 prospects in baseball. If there was some obvious talent-deficiency which will always make him unable to hit, I'd think the Cubs and more of the scouts would have noticed by now. So, Occam's Razor suggests that if a lot of smart observers still think he's got a reasonable chance to hit, that his chance of being a reasonable hitter is at least somewhat better than zero.

 

My concerns go well beyond the low-walk thing, as problematic as that is.

1. I'm concerned that may be a manifestation of fundamental talent-deficiency in being able to process pitch movement and handle breaking stuff. If you're going to be off-balance every time a pitcher throws something other than a fastball, and you can't even punish the hanging breaking balls, it's going to be bad. If you don't have the vision/brain for good pitch-recognition etc., I don't think that's an acquirable skill. If he's failing because he doesn't have that, practice and experience won't cure the disease. I think pitch recognition and fear of breaking balls may also contribute to why the walk rate is so horrible.

 

2. The ridiculous leg-kick doesn't help. How do you keep good balance to enable efficient weight-transfer to drive the ball with that leg kick? Yuck. I'm hoping that's something mechanical that can be adjusted, reduced, to his future advantage.

 

3. I don't know how adjustable this factor is. But Almora has always been heavily groundball-oriented. Is that something so ingrained in the swing-plane that if a guy's stroke mechanics don't have lift, they can't tweak that? If so, Almora may be cooked.

 

4. Not sure how coachable or correctible this is either. But can an up-the-middle/opposite-field guy make some adjustments to use the whole field including his pull field? My perception (Cubs have way better data) is that Almora usually went center/right, but rarely used left. Obviously most of his contact was groundouts; but my perception is that if you marked where a normal SS usually starts out, there were 3 groundouts to the RF side of the initial SS position for every groundout to the 3B side of the initial SS position. Can he better learn to pull the ball, and perhaps with more lift? Beats me, but I'm hoping.

[CubsWin]

Looks like PJ has a leg up on #9, but for me it's pretty clear. The upside of Underwood tips the scales in his favor. Johnson's control problems at this stage is discouraging. Underwood has a ways to go, but he's got the FB velocity, the body and the raw stuff to be a #2. That carries it for me. Plus he's getting some prospect ranking love by guys who know a lot more than I do. PJ? Not so much.