Week 13: Bears (5-6) @ Lions (7-4) Thu 11:30 AM CT CBS

[Guest]

I wouldn't describe Cutler has all or nothing this year. Unfortunately, I haven't see a whole lot of the "all" that I am used to seeing in him. He has looked really good at times, but not often enough. He's been okay for much of the time and looked bad far too often for my taste.

 

Yes, this. He's not the disaster his haters think he is, but he also hasn't been as awesome as frequently as he has in seasons past. Falling in the middle most of the time isn't enough with this team.

 

I don't mean to keep repeating myself but I don't know where this idea that he was more frequently awesome or whatever in the past is coming from. He's basically the same guy. Maybe a little better. I mean, he's having his best year of his career statistically. I get that you're saying that his numbers are lying, but I just don't agree with your perception at all. Is it being being clouded by not actually having seen the good games? That's not a shot. I'm serious.

[Sammy Sofa]

It feels like he's having the safest year of his career, which isn't necessarily the best thing when you're capable of being the awesome gunslinger type and when you're on a team that's apparently as flawed as the Bears are this year. I'm not blaming him for where they so as much as hoping he emerges as the one that can carry them to better things.

 

Granted, maybe I missed something amazing in those Falcons and Vikings wins, but that's still just two games. And the 49er's game is simultaneously what I want to see and not want to see. Carrying the team back and being the dagger? Awesome. Sucking for at least half of the game? Not awesome. That one would probably feel a lot better if this season didn't have him disappearing for too much of the game too often and it not ending up like that one did.

[WrigleyField 22]

Even in the past when Jay has been the dagger, it has at often come on the heels of poor first halves. I agree he should have been given the reigns to burry TB yesterday and not play conservatively. Even if you wanted to go with Leno at TE for extra protection, you let Jay, Jeffery, and Marshall do their thing with Forte hanging around as the dump off.

 

 

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[Sammy Sofa]

Even in the past when Jay has been the dagger, it has at often come on the heels of poor first halves.

 

Right, which is why it's frustrating even when the end result is awesome. It's great that Jay has the comeback numbers that he does.

[UMFan83]

As great as it is that the Bears won this week, it hurts that the Cowboys, Eagles, 49ers and Seahawks all won this week. 3 of those 4 teams along with the Lions are likely the 4 teams we'd be competing with for 2 playoff spots. I'm think one of the West teams will get in and one won't, which means that'd we'd be hoping for a Eagles/Cowboys and Lions collapse to have a shot at the playoffs (if we win out which we won't)

[UK1679666180]

I wouldn't describe Cutler has all or nothing this year. Unfortunately, I haven't see a whole lot of the "all" that I am used to seeing in him. He has looked really good at times, but not often enough. He's been okay for much of the time and looked bad far too often for my taste.

 

Yes, this. He's not the disaster his haters think he is, but he also hasn't been as awesome as frequently as he has in seasons past. Falling in the middle most of the time isn't enough with this team.

 

I don't mean to keep repeating myself but I don't know where this idea that he was more frequently awesome or whatever in the past is coming from. He's basically the same guy. Maybe a little better. I mean, he's having his best year of his career statistically. I get that you're saying that his numbers are lying, but I just don't agree with your perception at all. Is it being being clouded by not actually having seen the good games? That's not a shot. I'm serious.

 

 

If you're going with QB rating, completion %, etc which is the equivalent to basing baseball career years on batting average and wins.

 

All the advanced stats tell a different story.

[Guest]

As great as it is that the Bears won this week, it hurts that the Cowboys, Eagles, 49ers and Seahawks all won this week. 3 of those 4 teams along with the Lions are likely the 4 teams we'd be competing with for 2 playoff spots. I'm think one of the West teams will get in and one won't, which means that'd we'd be hoping for a Eagles/Cowboys and Lions collapse to have a shot at the playoffs (if we win out which we won't)

Fortunately, recent history says chances of the Cowboys and Lions both collapsing is quite high.

[Guest]

I wouldn't describe Cutler has all or nothing this year. Unfortunately, I haven't see a whole lot of the "all" that I am used to seeing in him. He has looked really good at times, but not often enough. He's been okay for much of the time and looked bad far too often for my taste.

 

Yes, this. He's not the disaster his haters think he is, but he also hasn't been as awesome as frequently as he has in seasons past. Falling in the middle most of the time isn't enough with this team.

 

I don't mean to keep repeating myself but I don't know where this idea that he was more frequently awesome or whatever in the past is coming from. He's basically the same guy. Maybe a little better. I mean, he's having his best year of his career statistically. I get that you're saying that his numbers are lying, but I just don't agree with your perception at all. Is it being being clouded by not actually having seen the good games? That's not a shot. I'm serious.

 

 

If you're going with QB rating, completion %, etc which is the equivalent to basing baseball career years on batting average and wins.

 

All the advanced stats tell a different story.

 

Which advanced stats?

 

They've never really liked him, so...

 

A lot of those do put a lot of weight on high leverage plays, so it makes sense that they'd like him less this year if he's in position to hurt the team more with his mistakes since they are more reliant on the offense than ever.

[WrigleyField 22]

As great as it is that the Bears won this week, it hurts that the Cowboys, Eagles, 49ers and Seahawks all won this week. 3 of those 4 teams along with the Lions are likely the 4 teams we'd be competing with for 2 playoff spots. I'm think one of the West teams will get in and one won't, which means that'd we'd be hoping for a Eagles/Cowboys and Lions collapse to have a shot at the playoffs (if we win out which we won't)

If the Bears win out (they won't) it will be very hard for them to not get in as a 10-6. It would probably mean no 10-6 teams get in.

 

ETA- the Bears would have h2h against Dallas, Detroit, and San Fran. Philly, and Ari have conference heavy schedules so if they falter, Bears will get that tie breaker. Probably only concern is a 10-6 Seattle and 11-5 Dallas but I haven't been able to create that scenario yet, it keeps coming out with all 11-5 teams.

 

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Edited November 24, 2014 by WrigleyField 22

[UK1679666180]

I wouldn't describe Cutler has all or nothing this year. Unfortunately, I haven't see a whole lot of the "all" that I am used to seeing in him. He has looked really good at times, but not often enough. He's been okay for much of the time and looked bad far too often for my taste.

 

Yes, this. He's not the disaster his haters think he is, but he also hasn't been as awesome as frequently as he has in seasons past. Falling in the middle most of the time isn't enough with this team.

 

I don't mean to keep repeating myself but I don't know where this idea that he was more frequently awesome or whatever in the past is coming from. He's basically the same guy. Maybe a little better. I mean, he's having his best year of his career statistically. I get that you're saying that his numbers are lying, but I just don't agree with your perception at all. Is it being being clouded by not actually having seen the good games? That's not a shot. I'm serious.

 

 

If you're going with QB rating, completion %, etc which is the equivalent to basing baseball career years on batting average and wins.

 

All the advanced stats tell a different story.

 

Which advanced stats?

 

They've never really liked him, so...

 

A lot of those do put a lot of weight on high leverage plays, so it makes sense that they'd like him less this year if he's in position to hurt the team more with his mistakes since they are more reliant on the offense than ever.

 

Dvoa, Dyar, QBR, Win probability, etc.

 

He was better last year and definitely better in one of his Denver years.

[UMFan83]

Bears are 16-14-2 on thanksgiving but 3-6 since the merger with all but 2 of those 9 games coming against Detroit.

 

They have lost their last 3 Thanksgiving games (2004's ugly fest against the Cowboys, 1999 against the Lions and 1997's 55-20 drubbing in Detroit) and 5 of their last 6 dating back to 1981. Their last Thanksgiving victory was in 1993 against the Lions.

[Guest]

Bears are 16-14-2 on thanksgiving but 3-6 since the merger with all but 2 of those 9 games coming against Detroit.

 

They have lost their last 3 Thanksgiving games (2004's ugly fest against the Cowboys, 1999 against the Lions and 1997's 55-20 drubbing in Detroit) and 5 of their last 6 dating back to 1981. Their last Thanksgiving victory was in 1993 against the Lions.

 

You're slowly but surely becoming Fred.

[UMFan83]

Bears are 16-14-2 on thanksgiving but 3-6 since the merger with all but 2 of those 9 games coming against Detroit.

 

They have lost their last 3 Thanksgiving games (2004's ugly fest against the Cowboys, 1999 against the Lions and 1997's 55-20 drubbing in Detroit) and 5 of their last 6 dating back to 1981. Their last Thanksgiving victory was in 1993 against the Lions.

 

You're slowly but surely becoming Fred.

 

Hah, I thought it was interesting. Maybe not.

 

I should have added Go Bears! to the end.

[Guest]

Bears are 16-14-2 on thanksgiving but 3-6 since the merger with all but 2 of those 9 games coming against Detroit.

 

They have lost their last 3 Thanksgiving games (2004's ugly fest against the Cowboys, 1999 against the Lions and 1997's 55-20 drubbing in Detroit) and 5 of their last 6 dating back to 1981. Their last Thanksgiving victory was in 1993 against the Lions.

 

You're slowly but surely becoming Fred.

 

Hah, I thought it was interesting. Maybe not.

 

I should have added Go Bears! to the end.

 

I mean, I'm sure those anecdotes are interesting to some. It's more the fact that you're posting them, not that they're interesting/uninteresting. I've just noticed you posting a lot of them.

[BigSlick]

Y'all saying Cutler is having the best year of his career are correct, but it's completely context-less. It's like looking at a batters OPS while ignoring his OPS+. QB stats are up *all over the league* so the real question is if Cutlers' stats are rising even more than the rising tide lifting all QB boats.

 

Football outsiders has him as the 18th ranked QB in the league which, subjectively speaking, feels about right. It's also higher than Matt Stafford (lol)

[Guest]

Y'all saying Cutler is having the best year of his career are correct, but it's completely context-less. It's like looking at a batters OPS while ignoring his OPS+. QB stats are up *all over the league* so the real question is if Cutlers' stats are rising even more than the rising tide lifting all QB boats.

 

Football outsiders has him as the 18th ranked QB in the league which, subjectively speaking, feels about right. It's also higher than Matt Stafford (lol)

 

I'm not saying he's taken some step forward or is having a great year. I'm saying he's more or less the same guy he's been the whole time with maybe a sign or two of aging (or maybe that's just variance).

[WrigleyField 22]

The real question is where Cutler ranks among QBs who would have otherwise been available the past few years (draft or FA) and any opportunity costs we would have pursuing those.

 

I have a feeling Cutler would still be the best move. Only guy who jumps out is maybe Hoyer, but let's be honest that was out of nowhere and very reliant on hindsight.

 

 

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[jersey cubs fan]

My analysis of Cutler this year isn't particularly analytical. I just believe his throws have been off. It's almost as if his shoulder is bothering him or something. In the past I'd see a lot of only Cutler can do that throws, and they haven't been there this year. He's dumping off so much on his checkdowns that I am sure certain people are getting moist about it, but even the checkdown throws look off. This looks nothing what I would expect to see out of Cutler is his second year in a quality system. A lot of that is related to what no longer looks like a quality system, but even then I have been disappointed with Cutler's play this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

My analysis of Cutler this year isn't particularly analytical. I just believe his throws have been off. It's almost as if his shoulder is bothering him or something. In the past I'd see a lot of only Cutler can do that throws, and they haven't been there this year. He's dumping off so much on his checkdowns that I am sure certain people are getting moist about it, but even the checkdown throws look off. This looks nothing what I would expect to see out of Cutler is his second year in a quality system. A lot of that is related to what no longer looks like a quality system, but even then I have been disappointed with Cutler's play this year.

 

This. His arm absolutely does not look the same.

[WrigleyField 22]

Since Emery has been GM the only three QBs were available and top Cutler by DVOA : Manning (wouldn't have beat out Elway/Broncos) Alex Smith (would have to beat offer of #34 pick in 2013, and give similar deal) and Brian Hoyer (hindsight, will get big deal soon). In striking distance is Orton. No one else available is really close in performance. (A few others technically available but require high picks we didn't have, and even among top QB picks the success rate vs Cutler is not great. Once you get to the fourth and get possibilities like Cousins the relative successes are definitely the exceptions).

 

So Orton is the best argument, but you still have to spend all that extra cash efficiently to make up for the downgrade. QBs just don't become available so even as the 18th best QB it was right to extend him.

 

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Edited November 24, 2014 by WrigleyField 22

[Sammy Sofa]

My analysis of Cutler this year isn't particularly analytical. I just believe his throws have been off. It's almost as if his shoulder is bothering him or something. In the past I'd see a lot of only Cutler can do that throws, and they haven't been there this year. He's dumping off so much on his checkdowns that I am sure certain people are getting moist about it, but even the checkdown throws look off. This looks nothing what I would expect to see out of Cutler is his second year in a quality system. A lot of that is related to what no longer looks like a quality system, but even then I have been disappointed with Cutler's play this year.

 

Agreed, especially on the bold parts. He's talented enough where he's still good, but something is off.

[UMFan83]

Since Emery has been GM the only three QBs were available and top Cutler by DVOA : Manning (wouldn't have beat out Elway/Colts) Alex Smith (would have to beat offer of #34 pick in 2013, and give similar deal) and Brian Hoyer (hindsight, will get big deal soon). In striking distance is Orton. No one else available is really close in performance. (Several other technically available but require high picks we didn't have).

 

So Orton is the best argument, but you still have to spend all that extra cash efficiently to make up for the downgrade. QBs just don't become available so even as the 18th best QB it was right to extend him.

 

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Right but good QBs are never available. I don't think anyone is suggesting to get rid of Cutler and sign a FA to become our QB of the future.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Right but good QBs are never available. I don't think anyone is suggesting to get rid of Cutler and sign a FA to become our QB of the future.

Yea I guess I'm not replying to any post specifically in this thread, but there's a lot of lamenting here. The general meatball stance is what my post is more directed to.

 

 

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[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah. That's the problem it always comes to. People can say whatever they want about Cutler, but the alternatives are never any better.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah. That's the problem it always comes to. People can say whatever they want about Cutler, but the alternatives are never any better.

 

Yeah, the amount of times I keep hearing about people thinking it was stupid the Bears didn't franchise him is frustrating. That just wouldn't have worked.