Cole Hamels Traded to Rangers

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So Hypothetical Non-Existent George Springer is a good comp for Javy, and Imaginary Pedro Alvarez Who Strikes Out More Than Real Pedro Alvarez Did.

Please enlighten me on this massive list of players you have that fit your parameters, were promoted at similar ages to Javy, and have large K-rates but still really good triple slash lines. We're using hypotheticals because a meaningful sample size of these players don't exist and players who have posted K-rates as high as him are generally not OPSing near 1.000 and on pace to hit 60 HRs as 20 year old SS's in AA.

 

I didn't put the "promoted at ages similar to Javy" qualifier on there, you did. And my point was that those players *don't* exist.

 

The list of players who struck out as much as Javy did in the minors (not "almost as much") and went on to be successful major leaguers over the long haul appears to be zero. You can't ask me to produce a list when I said the list doesn't exist, that doesn't make sense.

 

But the list of players who have had Javy's combination of power, age and position is also pretty close to zero.

 

So we argue over and over and over again about which of the two factors is more important, when really we don't know and we're just waiting to see.

[RammyFanny]

So we argue over and over and over again about which of the two factors is more important, when really we don't know and we're just waiting to see.

 

Agreed.

 

And just to be clear, since I've been going off a massive pro-Javy rant these last few pages, I want to reiterate I'm not trying to make him into some bust proof guy if it's coming off that way. I realize he's really high risk and think it's probably going to take a few years before he gets closer to his true potential. I just don't know if it will be a few years as a passable offensive player whose dongs and hot streaks partially outweigh some of the high K's to keep him in the lineup, or if it's "let's try AAA again and we'll see you in August."

[Guest]

So we argue over and over and over again about which of the two factors is more important, when really we don't know and we're just waiting to see.

 

Agreed.

 

And just to be clear, since I've been going off a massive pro-Javy rant these last few pages, I want to reiterate I'm not trying to make him into some bust proof guy if it's coming off that way. I realize he's really high risk and think it's probably going to take a few years before he gets closer to his true potential. I just don't know if it will be a few years as a passable offensive player whose dongs and hot streaks partially outweigh some of the high K's to keep him in the lineup, or if it's "let's try AAA again and we'll see you in August."

I think his mostly likely positive outcome is a version of Soriano without the base stealing; a very useful player. But I think his most likely outcome is that he's playing in Japan in a 5 years.

[RammyFanny]

So we argue over and over and over again about which of the two factors is more important, when really we don't know and we're just waiting to see.

 

Agreed.

 

And just to be clear, since I've been going off a massive pro-Javy rant these last few pages, I want to reiterate I'm not trying to make him into some bust proof guy if it's coming off that way. I realize he's really high risk and think it's probably going to take a few years before he gets closer to his true potential. I just don't know if it will be a few years as a passable offensive player whose dongs and hot streaks partially outweigh some of the high K's to keep him in the lineup, or if it's "let's try AAA again and we'll see you in August."

I think his mostly likely positive outcome is a version of Soriano without the base stealing; a very useful player. But I think his most likely outcome is that he's playing in Japan in a 5 years.

His most likely outcome might be let him tear up AAA and then trade him in a bigger package for a good position player (or maybe younger pitcher but I'll always be hesitant), but then again Theo has a pretty big prospect fetish so it wouldn't surprise me to see him ride it out and just try to make trades with the second tier top 100ish types for guys on shorter deals.

 

And I know treymon doesn't think anyone will give up a good position player for him, but maybe we can throw in some quality nachos to the receiving team.

[Tryptamine]

So apparently Amaro is asking the Red Sox for Henry Owens and either of Betts/Swihart plus the Red Sox will take on the entirety of the contract. Who in the hell would give up a top 15 prospect and top 30 prospect all for the right of paying a pitcher what is basically his free market value(24M/Y)?

[Guest]

So apparently Amaro is asking the Red Sox for Henry Owens and either of Betts/Swihart plus the Red Sox will take on the entirety of the contract. Who in the hell would give up a top 15 prospect and top 30 prospect all for the right of paying a pitcher what is basically his free market value(24M/Y)?

The Red Sox. They don't have a #1.

[Guest]

So apparently Amaro is asking the Red Sox for Henry Owens and either of Betts/Swihart plus the Red Sox will take on the entirety of the contract. Who in the hell would give up a top 15 prospect and top 30 prospect all for the right of paying a pitcher what is basically his free market value(24M/Y)?

The Red Sox. They don't have a #1.

If they were willing to give up that package, a trade would have been made already.

[Guest]

If you're pessimistic on Swihart and gung ho about Hamels, that's probably at the high end of deals that the Red Sox should make. But if their impression of Swihart matches the BA/BP/etc consensus, then that's too much. Betts is a complete non-starter.

[Some Guy]

...all for the right of paying a pitcher what is basically his free market value(24M/Y)?

 

Egregiously false. If he was on the free market there's no way in hell he could be had for $96/4. The fact that those $24M years don't guarantee past age 34 is a huge part of his value.

[Guest]

Well it's 5/110 unless Hamels is feeling particularly charitable. Sure you'd have to pay a bit more on the open market for him in years, but Lester is a decent proxy and he just got 6/155, so if we want to go that route it's probably even less surplus value than even a Swihart by himself. Plus if you ask any team swimming in deep enough waters to pay 6/155 if they'd rather have a player for 5/110 and at least one top prospect or just 6/155, I bet the overwhelming majority would take money only. It's the ironic corollary to Amaro's stubborn refusal to consider eating money on Hamels' deal because Philly can afford to pay him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Have you seen the Phillies? That is a sad, sad, group of baseball players.

 

Chase Utley is hitting .099/.175/.197/.373

 

Grady Sizemore, Jeff Franceour, Chad Billingsley, and Jerome Williams are all on their big league roster, because I guess it's 2007.

 

I do not know who a lot of their players are.

 

But they have Cole Hamels and Jonathon Papelbon. I know Hamels has been discussed to death. A Hamels and Papelbon package would be sick but costly. But Papelbon on his own?

 

Our bullpen terrifies me now more than ever. Granted, it's nowhere near the worst bullpen we've had in recent memory, but it actually matters now. The question is how much would the Phillies want at this point, and do we have enough of a shot this year for it to matter?

 

He's 34, 35 in November with a vesting option for 2016. I could see him wanting that option waved by whomever he's traded to, as this winter will likely be his last chance at a 3-4 year deal.

[Rob]

Have you seen the Phillies? That is a sad, sad, group of baseball players.

 

Chase Utley is hitting .099/.175/.197/.373

 

Grady Sizemore, Jeff Franceour, Chad Billingsley, and Jerome Williams are all on their big league roster, because I guess it's 2007.

 

I do not know who a lot of their players are.

 

But they have Cole Hamels and Jonathon Papelbon. I know Hamels has been discussed to death. A Hamels and Papelbon package would be sick but costly. But Papelbon on his own?

 

Our bullpen terrifies me now more than ever. Granted, it's nowhere near the worst bullpen we've had in recent memory, but it actually matters now. The question is how much would the Phillies want at this point, and do we have enough of a shot this year for it to matter?

 

He's 34, 35 in November with a vesting option for 2016. I could see him wanting that option waved by whomever he's traded to, as this winter will likely be his last chance at a 3-4 year deal.

 

Jerome Williams is still only 33 years old.

 

He made his debut for the Giants in 2003. The lineup behind him that day was:

 

2B - Ray Durham

3B - Edgardo Alfonzo

SS - Rich Aurilia

LF - Barry Bonds

RF - Jose Cruz

C - Yorvit Torrealba

1B - J.T. Snow

CF - Marquis Grissom

 

Neifi Perez, Pedro Feliz, Benito Santiago, and Ruben Rivera all made pinch hit appearances in that game.

 

The lineup he was facing for the Phillies that day was:

 

SS - Jimmy Rollins (24 years old)

CF - Ricky Ledee

RF - Bobby Abreu

LF - Pat Burrell

1B - Jim Thome

3B - David Bell

C - Todd Partt

2B - Tomas Perez

 

Carlos Silva picked up the save for the Phillies that day. And a 24 year old rookie named Chase Utley got his 10th ever plate appearance in that game as a pinch hitter. He struck out.

[Rob]

There's no point to all of that. It's just that whenever I see Jerome Williams pop up I kinda associate him as a being a bridge to the past. I'd love to see him stick around the bigs for another five years so that those lineups look even older than they do now.

[Little Slide Rooter]

[expletive], I forgot that Carlos Silva was a thing that once inhabited our team.

[sontensei]

Looks like my fellow meatheads have spoken, what does Theo do?

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[Derwood]

[expletive], I forgot that Carlos Silva was a thing that once inhabited our team.

 

Oh god...OH GOD

[BrockLanders]

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I hope we're not suddenly offering a better package after the no-hitter. Hamels is signed through 2019 if his options vests, one game should not radically change the projection of his performance over that time.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

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I hope we're not suddenly offering a better package after the no-hitter. Hamels is signed through 2019 if his options vests, one game should not radically change the projection of his performance over that time.

 

Of course it doesn't change his projection, but it's economics. Supply and demand. If Justin Upton hits 4 homeruns and a double tonight, I'm sure the demand will go up for him more than what it currently is because, well, awesome performances tend to help your value.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Rangers and Dodgers in the lead for Hamels.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13322630/texas-rangers-los-angeles-dodgers-favorites-trade-cole-hamels-philadelphia-phillies

[Banedon]

Rangers and Dodgers in the lead for Hamels.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13322630/texas-rangers-los-angeles-dodgers-favorites-trade-cole-hamels-philadelphia-phillies

 

If not the Cubs, AL plz.

[shnsajax]

Anyone but the Dodgers and Cards, screw them.

[sontensei]

I couldnt give you names of the Dodgers prospects but they have been among the biggest spenders in IFA pools they prolly have some pretty good guys we never heard of before.

[Guest]

What do the Dodgers even have to offer? After Urias and Seager, what's in that farm? A bunch of relief prospects and 6' teenaged RH Grant Holmes? I'm even less sure about what the Rangers could give up that is both appealing and worthwhile to them, a team with Darvish recovering from TJ and Holland still ???.

They could include Puig and put together a strong package. It's about a willingness to give value. If the Dodgers are willing they can put together as good a group as anyone. I don't think the Dodgers are willing. Like Theo, Friedman isn't that type of GM. I'm thinking a team like the Blue Jays who are desperate to win will blow everyone away.

[jersey cubs fan]

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[Tryptamine]

What do the Dodgers even have to offer? After Urias and Seager, what's in that farm? A bunch of relief prospects and 6' teenaged RH Grant Holmes? I'm even less sure about what the Rangers could give up that is both appealing and worthwhile to them, a team with Darvish recovering from TJ and Holland still ???.

 

DeLeon is like a top 30 prospect in the game at this point. Verdugo is highly regarded and Jharel Cotton is about to explode up prospect boards. After that you have decent guys like Chris Anderson and Darnell Sweeney who may be interesting 3rd or 4th pieces.