2015 Draft Discussion

[sneakypower]

i'm pretty hopeful for Daz

[Tryptamine]

BA did their first mock today too. They'll be doing one every Friday going forward (side note: I think BA has been a lot worse on this front since Jim Callis left): http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-1-0/

 

1. Arizona: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

2. Houston: Alex Bregman, SS, Vanderbilt

3. Colorado: Brendan Rogers, SS, Lake Mary HS (FL)

4. Texas: Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State

5. Houston: Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant HS (FL)

6. Minnesota: Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (GA)

7. Boston: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU

8. White Sox: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville

9. Cubs:

The Cubs have zigged where others expected them to zag for the last two drafts, going for impact bats with Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. If Bregman were to slide here, expect Chicago to pounce, but there are few other impact bats available. Instead, a team looking to win sooner than later could gamble on Fulmer, who would fit at the back of a bullpen if he proved to have too much effort in his delivery to start over a 162-game schedule.

 

Selection: Carson Fulmer, rhp, Vanderbilt

 

I would be absolutely shocked if Dansby didn't go in the top 10 and quite pissed off if he was there at 9 and we didn't take him.

 

Edit: Didn't realize you had two Bregmans and #2 was supposed to be Dansby.

[Guest]

i'm pretty hopeful for Daz

 

He's my #1 choice amongst realistic targets. I like the relative safety (when considering prep bats) he provides. Sounds like Houston at 5 is a big threat though. I'll take Tucker or Clark if Cameron is gone.

 

I would be absolutely shocked if Dansby didn't go in the top 10 and quite pissed off if he was there at 9 and we didn't take him.

 

Edit: Didn't realize you had two Bregmans and #2 was supposed to be Dansby.

 

Oops, my bad. I edited it. Swanson sounds like the ideal Epstein/Hoyer first rounder, no way they'd ever pas on a guy like him. Bregman too, for that matter.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel made a few tweaks to his mock based on what happened this weekend, including changing the Cubs' pick:

 

UPDATE 5/11/15: Notes from this weekend’s college games: Dillon Tate was solid in front of GM’s from Arizona, Houston and Colorado. Dansby Swanson was even better, in front of decision makers from all the top teams, including Houston, who may still be debating whether they’d take Swanson or Rodgers if given the choice (Rodgers’ season is over). Carson Fulmer did what he usually does and probably has a home from picks 7-17 depending on how things fall on draft day, with an evaluation similar to Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray as previous undersized righties with stellar track records and plus stuff.

 

Andrew Benintendi went nuts at the plate again (I’ll see him and Fulmer this weekend). And, finally, Jon Harris was excellent, rebounding from a not-so-great start, so, at this point, I would make Harris the 9th pick to the Cubs and slide Trenton Clark down a few picks, but still comfortably in the top 20. I also updated the 2016 MLB Draft Rankings as a few top prospects came off the DL and impressed, further strengthening the top of that draft, which is far and away better than this year’s draft.

[Gilby]

Benintendi isn't someone I've been paying attention to, but holy cow, give me that guy.

 

.405 avg, 16 HRs, 34/25 BB/K, 20-23 SB's as a centerfielder in the SEC. Yes, please.

 

What are your thoughts on him, Raisin?

[UK1679666180]

Benintendi isn't someone I've been paying attention to, but holy cow, give me that guy.

 

.405 avg, 16 HRs, 34/25 BB/K, 20-23 SB's as a centerfielder in the SEC. Yes, please.

 

What are your thoughts on him, Raisin?

If he's there at 47, it would be a solid pick. He's more of a safe pick with a lower ceiling/floor despite leading the NCAA in Hrs as a C.F..

 

His one plus tool is his speed.

 

His ceiling is that of a smaller Marisnick.

[Guest]

From Friday:

 

@JBrownPG: .@MSUBearBaseball JR. RHP Jon Harris as good as advertised 1-2-3 1st, spotting 92-94 down to both @ knees, pot. + CB in upper 70, tight 12-6

 

@JBrownPG: Near identical second for #MSU Jon Harris. 92-94 mph w FB, living low to either side, picked up 2nd K w 78 mph CB. 2K, 4GB to 2B #MLBDraft

 

@JBrownPG: Runner on 3rd w 1 out, #MSU Jon Harris goes B2B CB @ 78 on 3-1 count for K then triples up for 3rd out, both swinging Ks. Big feel for it.

 

@JBrownPG: Cruising on strength of FB-CB over 4, Jon Harris introduced 84/85 mph CH. Above average present, pot. +, replicates AA w late fade #MLBDraft

 

@JBrownPG: Bottom of 7 & Harris picks up another 3 Ks, still touching 94 and living at 92-93. 10 Ks over 7, 5 coming on swings & misses w CB #MLBDraft

 

@JBrownPG: Harris done after 7.2, fantastic from start to finish, 10 K/0 BB & just 2 hits. Maintained velo, 3 pitches in any count & stayed off barrels

[KingCubsFan]

From Keith Law's latest chat:

 

Lewis (Tulsa)

 

Have you had a chance to see Duane Underwood this year? Trying to keep SSS in mind, but seems like a lot to be bullish about.

Klaw (1:46 PM)

 

He didn't pitch when Myrtle was here, although I've heard the stuff has ticked up again. Might be their #3 prospect by year-end, after Schwarber (I'm assuming he doesn't get called up till late) and Torres.

Klaw (1:46 PM)

 

I guess it also depends on who they draft at #9. Latest rumor has them on Andrew Benintendi of Arkansas, a 5'9" or so LHH CF with surprising power.

 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51780/mlb-insider-keith-law

[Guest]

@ShotgunSprD1: INJURY: An MRI revealed #CalStateFullerton RHP Justin Garza, has slight UCL tear and will require surgery. #mlbdraft http://t.co/jIBCvvqqqj

 

Garza is a short RHP who had some first round hype going into the season.

[sontensei]

From Keith Law's latest chat:

 

Lewis (Tulsa)

 

Have you had a chance to see Duane Underwood this year? Trying to keep SSS in mind, but seems like a lot to be bullish about.

Klaw (1:46 PM)

 

He didn't pitch when Myrtle was here, although I've heard the stuff has ticked up again. Might be their #3 prospect by year-end, after Schwarber (I'm assuming he doesn't get called up till late) and Torres.

Klaw (1:46 PM)

 

I guess it also depends on who they draft at #9. Latest rumor has them on Andrew Benintendi of Arkansas, a 5'9" or so LHH CF with surprising power.

 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51780/mlb-insider-keith-law

 

wait we actually have more than 1 legit pitching prospect now? nice

[jersey cubs fan]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-2-0/

 

9. Cubs

 

While the Cubs again would like a pitcher, the value historically at the top of the draft is in bats. So this is the high spot, for now, of Arkansas’ high-riser Benintendi, who has shot up boards ahead of many of the high school outfielders on the board. He lacks size (he’s listed at 5-foot-10, 180 pounds) and track record; he stayed on campus last summer, and as one scout said, “It’s not clear everybody knew he was eligible as a sophomore. Combine that with (Trey) Killian being hurt early, and teams didn’t really come in on Arkansas early, and I think he kind of snuck up on people.”

 

Benintendi entered the weekend leading the nation in slugging (.780) and was leading the Southeastern Conference in batting (.405) and home runs (17) while going 20-for-23 on stolen bases. A college performer who’s a plus runner and can play center field, in this draft class, trumps his relatively short track record.

 

Selection: Andrew Benintendi, of, Arkansas

[Guest]

The Benitendi helium is kind of weird but I guess it's to be expected in such a crappy draft with so many players falling.

 

Pretty crazy seeing Carson Fulmer at #1. He just doesn't fit the standard profile scouts fall for. Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman were picked far lower than they should have been for a reason.

 

Also weird that Ian Happ can't crack the top 10 when other players are moving up just for being consistent and he's one of the most consistent guys in the draft.

[toonsterwu]

Fulmer at 1 is a bit stunning. That said ... it's Dave Stewart and those crazy Diamondbacks. Personally, I think Sonny Gray had a better profile out of college than Fulmer. I like Fulmer, legit big time stuff, but boy if I'm not convinced he's a starter. It's a weak pitching class. I'm not anti-pitcher in the 1st round in the draft, but with such as weak class, you really ought to opt for the best talent, first and foremost, wherever that is.

 

This is the sort of draft that I wish we could trade top 10 round picks. Would certainly love to move up to grab one of many intriguing starting arms that seem likely to fall into the late 1st/early 2nd range.

 

If the draft falls that way ... I think I'm alright with Bentinendi.. Still, one wonders if a draft-eligible sophomore may squeeze for a big deal. I'd prefer, in this draft, at our spot, last year's route of trying to save early and stocking up on some intriguing guys in the next few rounds. One has to think an intriguing college arm or two will be available in the 2nd, and perhaps some may even fall to the 3rd-5th range. I don't follow preps enough, but Donny Everett sure sounds interesting as a power arm, if we were to opt that route. It seems like a reach in the draft, but I still like Cornelius Randolph.

 

Dunno, such an eh draft.

[Rob]

Fulmer at 1 is a bit stunning. That said ... it's Dave Stewart and those crazy Diamondbacks. Personally, I think Sonny Gray had a better profile out of college than Fulmer. I like Fulmer, legit big time stuff, but boy if I'm not convinced he's a starter. It's a weak pitching class. I'm not anti-pitcher in the 1st round in the draft, but with such as weak class, you really ought to opt for the best talent, first and foremost, wherever that is.

 

This is the sort of draft that I wish we could trade top 10 round picks. Would certainly love to move up to grab one of many intriguing starting arms that seem likely to fall into the late 1st/early 2nd range.

 

If the draft falls that way ... I think I'm alright with Bentinendi.. Still, one wonders if a draft-eligible sophomore may squeeze for a big deal. I'd prefer, in this draft, at our spot, last year's route of trying to save early and stocking up on some intriguing guys in the next few rounds. One has to think an intriguing college arm or two will be available in the 2nd, and perhaps some may even fall to the 3rd-5th range. I don't follow preps enough, but Donny Everett sure sounds interesting as a power arm, if we were to opt that route. It seems like a reach in the draft, but I still like Cornelius Randolph.

 

Dunno, such an eh draft.

 

Yeah, I like Daz, but if he's not sitting there at #9 I'd just as soon underslot and use the extra to go after a high volume of interesting arms later.

[Guest]

Potential target for Cubs' second round pick:

 

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[Guest]

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[CP_414]

I don't have insider, but based on the Twitter responses I think Law mocked Tyler Jay to the Cubs in his first projection.

 

As we get closer to the draft, the 4 names I really like are Fullmer, Jay, Benintendi, and Happ. I think I'd rank them Fullmer, Beinintendi, Jay, Happ at this point, but a lot depends on how you view those pitchers chamces at starting and Happ's chances of being a capable 2B. Fullmer will probably be gone before 9 anyway.

 

Jim Callis's first mock will be up shortly.

[jersey cubs fan]

9Trenton ClarkSCHOOL: Richland HS (North Richland Hills, Texas)HT: 6-0WT: 200POS: OF

Analysis: I've also heard the Cubs with Garrett Whitley, Andrew Benintendi, Jon Harris and Carson Fulmer, and possibly Cameron too. They may replicate their so-far successful strategy from last year, taking a bat they love with their first pick and going over slot for arms in later rounds, such as 6-foot-7 prep lefty Bryan Hudson from Alton, Ill., who has one of the better curveballs in the draft.

 

He has Jay going to Cincy

 

11Tyler JaySCHOOL: IllinoisHT: 6-1WT: 175POS: LHP

Analysis: Jay might have gone in the top 5, even 1-1, had he started all spring, but national scouts and directors haven't had enough looks at him because he's worked in the bullpen and has even had one weekend series in which he didn't appear. The Reds appear to be highest on Jay and Carson Fulmer, both of whom could pitch in a major-league bullpen this fall, although Jay has a slight advantage there as he will throw about half as many innings as Fulmer will before signing.

[Guest]

Callis goes with Benitendi:

 

1. Dansby Swanson (who has been red hot of late and hit 2 HRs yesterday in an SEC Tournament game)

2. Brendan Rodgers

3. Tyler Jay

4. Daz Cameron

5. Carson Fulmer

6. Dillon Tate

7. Alex Bregman

8. Jon Harris

 

9. Chicago Cubs

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas

 

Chicago needs pitching a lot more than it needs hitting and will consider the same arms as its crosstown rival. But the Cubs may not be able to resist Benintendi if he gets past the Red Sox, and they also have spent a lot of time on high school hitters such as Cameron, Tucker, Richland High (North Richland Hills, Texas) outfielder Trenton Clark and Griffin (Ga.) High shortstop Cornelius Randolph.

[toonsterwu]

I'm a bit surprised Randolph has moved all the way up from late first consideration, but I really like the little I've seen about him, and wouldn't mind that gamble at all.

[Gilby]

I don't understand Callis' (or the Rockies' if that's what he heard) rationale of choosing Jay, who is a reliever right now, over Tate because they're worried about Tate being able to handle a starter's workload.

[Guest]

Carson Fulmer is about to pitch on the SEC Network. 4:30 CT start time.

[Guest]

Kevin (Chicago)

Noticed neither Aiken or Mattuella in your 1st round projections. Do they go a sandwich round selections or fall further and go for over slot deals in the 2nd - 5th rounds?

Klaw 1:07 PM ET

Matuella goes probably 25-35 range. Aiken is a tougher call; lots of teams want him, from Boston and the Cubs on down, but until they see the report from the surgery and notes from last summer, no one could say they're definitely on or considering him.

 

Joe (Chicago)

If you were the Cubs, other than being 2 years younger, why would you take Trent Clark over Benintendi?

Klaw 1:18 PM ET

Way better pure hit tool, longer track record. Benintendi was a nonentity in terms of this draft until mid-March or so.

 

Kevin (Chicago)

What's the knock on Andrew Benintendi? That he's only done it 1 year? Looking at his stats, it seems incredible to me that a college guy with that kind of power, that can stick in CF, has good speed & takes his walks is not a top 10 pick. Are there any PED concerns with him (not sure how strenuous college drug testing is)? Based on what the Cubs seem to value (prefer college bats, like guys that play up the middle), it seems to be their kind of guy.

Klaw 1:32 PM ET

Correct on the one year part. Also not a lock to stay in CF, a 55 runner not a burner, and his power probably won't play the same with wood (and we don't have great wood-bat experience or looks to use).

 

Matt [via mobile]

Big Cubs fan here and Illinois graduate. Any chance Tyler Jay lands with the northsiders?

Klaw 1:51 PM ET

Chance, yes. If Fulmer is on the board at 8, then he goes there and Jay is probably in the mix at 9, 11, and almost every team after that.

 

Mario (Sao Paulo, Brazil)

I read your Draft Busts articles, and a couple of times you mention the transition from aluminum to wooden bat... Is this a concern when drafting? Is there any sign in a swing or a type of hitter that can have a hard time making this transition?

Klaw 2:00 PM ET

Yes, it's a big concern, and yes, there are things to look for - bat control, hand strength, approach on inside pitches, overall swing path. Benintendi's a good one this year to watch, as I've had a few scouts say they don't think his short stature and high-leverage swing will produce this kind of power in pro ball.

Klaw 2:01 PM ET

Swings can change, of course, and players get stronger, but how much do you want to bet on that happening?

 

Erik (Chicago)

Based on your mock draft, seems like the White Sox are high on Fulmer, but he ranked significantly lower than Jay on your list of draft prospects. Why is Jay the more appealing prospect, and would Fulmer be a big reach for the Sox at 8?

Klaw 2:04 PM ET

I think Fulmer is a no-doubt reliever, a max-effort, sub-6 foot RHP who doesn't have the fastball command to get around this. The White Sox likely disagree with my assessment.

 

What the hell?

 

Evan (Detroit)

Klaw I see our local boy Nick Plummer didnt make your recent top 30 mock draft. Did he not have a good senior year?

Klaw 1:14 PM ET

I haven't heard him strongly with any club this spring, but bear in mind that 1) I don't hear everything or even close to it and 2) Plummer might be the most unscoutable player in the draft, given where he plays and the league's rules that start batters on a 1-1 count. He may very well go somewhere in the back of the first round and it would be a solid pick.

[davell]

I think I'd be most excited if we go with an under slot bat again and load up on high upside arms in 2-5 or so, like last year.

 

Personally, Benintendi scares me a bit, since this is his first big success and there's evidently at least questions out there as to whether his power holds up once he's using a wood bat.

[OleMissCub]

Not eligible til next year, but I don't know where else to put this. Check out this kid's pitching stats. He's a junior pitcher at Oxford High School which is a 6A school in Mississippi.

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/jason-barber/pSMVBPTpEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

12-0, 0.00 ERA, 78 IP, 31 hits, 14 BB, 110K

 

To not give up a single earned run in that many innings almost seems impossible.