2015 Draft Discussion

[Tryptamine]

So many people trumpeting the Astros for being right on Aiken, when him having TJS is almost completely irrelevant to the original discussion.

 

People mocked the Astros medical staff for thinking there was an issue with his elbow because other name doctors disagreed. Aiken's elbow pops. If they should be mocked it would be for not doing a more thorough medical examination before the draft, not for reducing an offer on what they perceived to be damaged goods.

 

This is exactly the point. There was nothing there to perceive as damaged goods. There is no proof that a small UCL leads to TJS and their were doctors, including James Andrews, who said as much. It was a fabricated story to drive Aiken's price down. You could literally make up anything that's slightly out of the ordinary and claim that you're worried about and use it as an excuse to drive the price down.

[Tryptamine]

Aiken is now in play for the Cubs. A very, very interesting decision if indeed he's still on the board. Ask Washington if they're sorry they drafted Giolito at 16.

 

Pitching is too deep to even consider it. There are 7 or 8 other pitchers out there that you could convince me are on par with Aiken before his injury.

 

Disagree. If Aiken legitimately was considered a 1.1 candidate last year, he would have at least been considered the top pitcher again this year, pre-TJS, in another weak draft.

 

Besides, nearly all the top pitchers have suffered injuries this season (Aiken, Allard - though it's only his back, Buehler and Matuela). So that leaves Tate, Kirby (doesn't have as good stuff as Aiken), Fulmer (reliever ceiling?) and Funkhouser who haven't been hurt. Yet.

 

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think Fulmer's best case scenario is a reliever other than size? Granted he's only averaging 6IP per start, but that's not too bad when you're putting up a 12.86K/9.

[toonsterwu]

I haven't watched Fulmer this year (particularly since I am out of the country), but if he's similar to last year, the delivery was a high effort delivery, which was why some thought he was destined for the pen. I had thought he might be able to tone it down a bit as a starter. Dunno.

 

As for Kirby, he's an interesting case. The stuff is good, better than last year, at least, based on what I've read and the snippets of video I've tried to catch up with online. The change-up might be much improved. Sure, compared to Aiken's perceived ceiling last year, Aiken's is better, but Kirby's got a chance to be a lefty that can occasionally touch mid-90's (to be fair, as a pro, I expect him to settle in the low 90's), a plus secondary, and an above average change-up. At our first round spot, if Kirby got the nod, I'd be relatively pleased. The frame, durability, command all look to be solid. The delivery looks like it might not be as bad an issue as Hultzen's was coming out of UVA.

 

I really wouldn't mind any of UVA's 3 pitchers within our top 10 rounds. I wouldn't want Sborz before, say, the 3rd, as I don't think we need him that bad and I don't think there's a real good shot of him being developed as a successful starter, and Waddell would be a nice mid-round arm if he fell in that 5th-7th range.

[Guest]

So...I'll say it on behalf of Kyle and all of us

 

[expletive] pitchers

 

keithlaw

Duke RHP Mike Matuella, a potential first overall pick in June, tore his UCL and will have Tommy John surgery

[Guest]

yup, what hitter can we target in the first?

[RammyFanny]

Pitchers are trash.

[George Hayduke]

Seriously though, [expletive] 'em all man.

[JeffH]

yup, what hitter can we target in the first?

 

Trenton Clark, Ian Happ, D.J. Stewart.

[CubsWin]

I don't know. None of college hitters really excite me. Happ doesn't really have a position. I think this is a golden opportunity for the Cubs to land a high pedigree pitcher.

 

Jeff Hoffman hasn't pitched as a pro yet, but he's still ranked as Toronto's 4th best prospect and Toronto's system is pretty good. Even without throwing one pro pitch, he's ranked 88th overall by MLB. Giolito is the poster boy for pitchers who have returned strong post-TJS and have retained top prospect status, but there are others. Dylan Bundy has come back. He's ranked 21st by MLB. Jameson Taillon is ranked 32nd. MLB only dropped Matuella and Aiken a few spots in their Top 50 draft prospects still ranking them 5th and 6th respectively.

 

It's a risk. Every pitcher is a risk. But with the expected success of the Cubs in the very near future, high draft picks will be scarce for a while. This may be the last chance for the Cubs to add a potential ace to their system for quite some time. There doesn't seem to be any standout hitters that will be available at #9 and the Cubs system is still pretty flush with quality hitters even after every position is filled in Chicago. The Cubs didn't seem averse to taking Dylan Cease, though that wasn't at #9 overall.

 

If the conditions are right when the Cubs make their pick, I say grab one of Aiken or Matuella. The only reason not to is if the Cubs like one of the available pitchers who haven't been injured more than those two. That said, I wanted them to take an arm instead of Bryant and Schwarber and I'm sure glad they didn't now, so what the [expletive] do I know...?

[Cubswin11]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

[CubsWin]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

[CubsWin]

I'd like to get people's opinions on this.

 

What would you rather have: a young stud (23 or 24 yrs old) #1 starting pitcher who has had TJS once already and is cheap or a 30/31 year old already established #1 who has no significant injury history signed as a free agent for an expensive 6 year deal?

[JeffH]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

[JeffH]

I'd like to get people's opinions on this.

 

What would you rather have: a young stud (23 or 24 yrs old) #1 starting pitcher who has had TJS once already and is cheap or a 30/31 year old already established #1 who has no significant injury history signed as a free agent for an expensive 6 year deal?

 

The former. Trade him and then sign the free agent.

[jersey cubs fan]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

The kershaws of the world may not become available, but the samardzijas prices shields etc. types do.

[Cubswin11]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

Doesn't need to be "young" can be average age, Shields, Garza, Price, Samardzija, etc.

[Tryptamine]

Does no one mention Dansby because they don't think he's going to be there for the Cub's pick? If the Cubs passed him up I'd be livid.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

Mat Latos. Twice.

[CubsWin]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

I guess I should have been more specific on what I meant by young. I was thinking like a 24 or 25 year old #1 starter.

[Guest]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

I guess I should have been more specific on what I meant by young. I was thinking like a 24 or 25 year old #1 starter.

Not often. The one that pops to mind immediately for me is Smoltz. But I'm not sure he was viewed as a #1 when he was traded.

 

There's the Latos example from earlier.

 

Cashner.

 

There was Kazmir when he was traded from the Mets.

 

Beckett was still pretty young, but not that young.

[CubsWin]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

Mat Latos. Twice.

Latos works. At the time the Padres traded him he was kind of a #1 and he was 24. He's probably a #2 now. Thanks, good catch.

[ConstableRabbit]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

I guess I should have been more specific on what I meant by young. I was thinking like a 24 or 25 year old #1 starter.

Not often. The one that pops to mind immediately for me is Smoltz. But I'm not sure he was viewed as a #1 when he was traded.

 

There's the Latos example from earlier.

 

Cashner.

 

There was Kazmir when he was traded from the Mets.

 

Beckett was still pretty young, but not that young.

I don't think Smoltz was ever traded...

[jersey cubs fan]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

I guess I should have been more specific on what I meant by young. I was thinking like a 24 or 25 year old #1 starter.

I don't think many 24 or 25 #1 starting pitchers, or stud hitters get traded. I think you trade your "surplus" hitting for quality pitching, not superstars.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think Smoltz was ever traded...

 

I am confused.

 

He was rather famously traded from Detroit

[CubsWin]

Draft the best hitter possible, trade hitters down the road for established pitching when pitching is the last need/hurdle to make a run.

When was the last time someone traded away a young #1 starter? Truly asking. Trying to remember.

 

David Price?

I guess I should have been more specific on what I meant by young. I was thinking like a 24 or 25 year old #1 starter.

Not often. The one that pops to mind immediately for me is Smoltz. But I'm not sure he was viewed as a #1 when he was traded.

 

There's the Latos example from earlier.

 

Cashner.

 

There was Kazmir when he was traded from the Mets.

 

Beckett was still pretty young, but not that young.

Thanks, Tim. Kazmir and Cashner hadn't been established as #1s in the majors at the time they were traded. They were potential #1s though. But Josh Beckett checks all the boxes. High draft pedigree (#2 overall), established stud starter in the bigs and was 25 when traded. Perfect. Thanks.