2015 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Jim Callis: HS pitchers shine in Under Armour Game

[Guest]

MLB.com's top 10 prospects on Team USA: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/kyle-funkhouser-leads-list-of-top-prospects-on-team-usa?ymd=20140814&content_id=89585038&vkey=news_mlb

 

1. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville

2. Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt

3. Dansby Swanson, 2B, Vanderbilt

4. Alex Bregman, SS, LSU

5. Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

6. James Kaprelian, RHP, UCLA

7. DJ Stewart, OF, Florida State

8. Zack Collins, 1B/C, Miami (soph)

9. Nick Banks, OF, Texas A&M (soph)

10. Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois

[Cubswin11]

When does Aiken have to make his decision on if he's going JUCO or the regular college route by? If he goes the JUCO route and performs well and stays healthy I kinda want him if we go the pitcher route.

[davell]

When does Aiken have to make his decision on if he's going JUCO or the regular college route by? If he goes the JUCO route and performs well and stays healthy I kinda want him if we go the pitcher route.

 

Nothing will be decided until there's a ruling on his grievance, which may take a few more weeks, according to one article. That said, we don't even know exactly what they're asking for IN the grievance. Which could also lend itself to not making his decision known immediately.

[Guest]

When does Aiken have to make his decision on if he's going JUCO or the regular college route by? If he goes the JUCO route and performs well and stays healthy I kinda want him if we go the pitcher route.

 

Aiken has to be enrolled at UCLA on January 5th for the winter quarter to play the 2015 season there.

[seanimal]

obviously this is all still very fluid, but what do we guess the draft strategy is next year? best positionals available in the first couple of rounds, need filling the rest of the way? or do we roll the dice on a top-flight arm? i suspect they're always in a best-available mindset, but their schwarber pick suggests they were at least considering org positional depth as a deciding factor

 

I would hope they just go BPA because this is hopefully their last chance to add a top 10 talent to the system for some time.

 

It's an interesting thought that they might roll the dice on a college arm with the thought that they're nearly ready to compete and top pitchers are a weakness at the top levels. That said, I'm not sure organizational depth wasn't as big a factor with Schwarber since just about everyone thinks he can't stick at C.

 

good point about schwarber; i'm going off of that hoyer quote where he mentioned their catching talent scarcity vis a vis picking schwarber, though he doesn't actually say that it was a deciding factor iirc

 

i know that we'll never know if they would have taken appel or aiken were they available, but i can't imagine the strategy changes at this juncture, whether the strategy was pitcher averse or not

[Guest]

Jim Callis on the stars of the Under Armour All-Star game: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/ashe-russell-among-stars-at-under-armour-all-america-game?ymd=20140818&content_id=90269984&vkey=news_mlb

[craig]

obviously this is all still very fluid, but what do we guess the draft strategy is next year? best positionals available in the first couple of rounds, need filling the rest of the way? or do we roll the dice on a top-flight arm? ....

 

I would hope they just go BPA because this is hopefully their last chance to add a top 10 talent to the system for some time.

 

It's an interesting thought that they might roll the dice on a college arm with the thought that they're nearly ready to compete and top pitchers are a weakness at the top levels. That said, I'm not sure organizational depth wasn't as big a factor with Schwarber .....

 

good point about schwarber; i'm going off of that hoyer quote where he mentioned their catching talent scarcity vis a vis picking schwarber, though he doesn't actually say that it was a deciding factor iirc

 

....i can't imagine the strategy changes at this juncture, whether the strategy was pitcher averse or not

 

1. I think they thought Schwarber was simply the BPA (or at least BVA, best Value....) at the time, with no expectation that he'd catch. Simply considered him the best bat, with no pitcher exciting enough to trump that.

 

2. I think the lower down you go, I suspect the bat-vs-pitcher balance may change. The failure rate for top-5 bats is low enough that it's not easy for a pitcher to compete. Perhaps by the second-5 or the second-10 or later, the failure-rate for hitters is high enough that it may at time equal or exceed the failure-rate for available pitchers.

 

3. I think there are strong indications that they would have taken both Appel and Aiken. (Lucky we didn't have those chances.) So I think they are quite open to drafting pitchers. I suspect it's just a case-by-case deal, and presumably the hypothetical if-never-injured pitcher would need to be significantly BPA relative to the best available player.

 

4. A good pitcher can advance pretty quickly. I don't think they will or should let short-term interesting bias their choice Bst IF they do end up scouting a pitcher as being talented enough to justify a top-10 pick despite the inherent injury risks, good top-10 pitchers are often ready to be major-league contributors within 24 months of being drafted.

[Guest]

Looks like next year's draft is going to get stronger:

 

@KendallRogersPG: BREAKING: Prized So RHP Phil Bickford, former 1st-round pick and @BaseballTitans P will not return to the team this fall. #mlbdraft #BigWest

 

@KendallRogersPG: From talking to strong @BaseballTitans sources, it sounds like Phil Bickford is strongly considering heading to independent ball. #mlbdraft

 

Bickford was Toronto's unsigned first round draft pick in 2013 and would have been draft eligible in 2016 if he had stayed at Fullerton.

[Guest]

Aaron Fitt confirms Bickford is leaving Fullerton to get drafted a year earlier:

 

@aaronfitt: I can confirm report by @KendallRogersPG that Phil Bickford is leaving Cal State Fullerton. Destination TBD. Huge blow to Titans, obviously.

 

@aaronfitt: I hear Bickford's decision is motivated by a desire to enter 2015 draft. So that means either a juco or indy ball. Was '13 first-rounder.

 

@aaronfitt: Hearing speculation that juco route is likelier for Bickford. Food for thought: he played for Cypress JC coach Scott Pickler in Cape this yr

 

FYI, I have been surprised with the rumors that Aiken is headed Yavapai JC (Prescott, AZ) when there's a powerhouse baseball JuCo much closer to his San Diego home in Cypress JC (near Anaheim and Long Beach).

[benzona]

FYI, I have been surprised with the rumors that Aiken is headed Yavapai JC (Prescott, AZ) when there's a powerhouse baseball JuCo much closer to his San Diego home in Cypress JC (near Anaheim and Long Beach).

 

 

Yes, but Yavapai is much better academically.

[Guest]

Aaron Fitt[/url]"]Assuming Bickford winds up in the 2015 draft pool, he has a chance to become the No. 1 overall pick. No other obvious front-runner has established himself, and Bickford already has a top-10 pedigree. But he still must refine his secondary stuff and prove that he can handle a starting role, because his stuff was considerably more electric in a relief role this summer than it was when he started in the spring. He sat in the 93-95 mph range when working out of the Y-D bullpen this summer, and his slider showed more power than it had in the past. And some organizations might still harbor questions related to the breakdown of negotiations between Bickford and the Blue Jays in 2013. So for a variety of reasons, Bickford is not the instant clear-cut favorite for the No. 1 pick either, but he figures to be on the short list.

[Guest]

@keithlaw: Average. HS bats and college arms. “@hurricanept: @keithlaw Keith, how do you see the 2015 draft class overall? Strong, weak, average?”

[Guest]

BA's Cape Cod top 30: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/cape-cod-league-top-30-prospects-2/

 

1. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt

2. Kyle Cody, RHP, Kentucky

3. Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona - this year's big Cape Cod breakout

4. Gio Brusa, OF, Pacific

5. Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati - used to be a 2B

6. Phil Bickford, RHP, formerly of Cal State Fullerton and draft eligible in 2016; future destination unknown

7. Marc Brakeman, RHP, Stanford

8. Richie Martin, SS, Florida

9. Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona

10 CJ Hinojosa, SS, Texas

11. Alex Young, LHP, TCU

12. Steven Duggar, OF, Clemson

13. Chris Shaw, 1B/OF, Boston College

14. Kyle Twomey, LHP, Southern Cal

15. Eric Hanhold, RHP, Florida

16. Mikey White, SS, Alabama

17. Garrett Cleavinger, LHP, Oregon

18. Joe McCarthy, OF, Virginia

19. Kevin Duchene, LHP, Illinois

20. Zack Erwin, LHP, Clemson

21. Josh Sborz, RHP, Virginia

22. Kal Simmons, SS, Kennesaw State

23. Kyri Washington, OF, Longwood

24. Garrett Williams, LHP, Oklahoma State - sophomore eligible for the 2016 draft

25. Justin Jacome, LHP, UC Santa Barbara

26. Kolton Mahoney, RHP, BYU

27. Ryan Perez, LHP/RHP, Judson (IL)

Perez came out of nowhere and took the Cape Cod League by storm, posting a 1.98 ERA and a 39-13 strikeout-walk mark in 27 innings. He struck out three straight batters in the league all-star game—two of them with his left arm, and one with his right. He sat at 90-91 mph from both sides in that appearance.

 

“That was the first time I’d ever seen anything like that—the same stuff from both sides in the same inning,” an NL crosschecker said. “I had to look up where Judson was—I’d never heard of it. He’s a prospect.”

 

Perez is more than just a novelty. He is a legitimate top-five-rounds candidate as a lefthander, with a solid-average fastball that reaches 93 and a plus curveball in the 77-81 range with three-quarters break. He has excellent command of his breaking ball, showing the ability to alter its depth and velocity as the situation dictates. He can throw it for a strike or use it as a chase pitch. His stuff from the right side is usually not as firm; he sits at 87-90 and features a 75-80 breaking ball with less power and consistency than his lefthanded breaker. A team could conceivably let him pitch from both sides in pro ball, giving him additional value, but it is more likely that his future is as a lefthanded reliever.

28. Rhett Wiseman, OF, Vanderbilt - drafted by the Cubs in 2012

29. David Thompson, 1B/3B, Miami

30. Andrew Stevenson, OF, LSU

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/ask-ba-whose-running-go-1-1-next-year/

 

Q: What’s your take on the 2015 draft in light of the (Phil) Bickford and (Brady) Aiken situations (assuming Aiken isn’t made a free agent and decides against attending UCLA)? I’ve heard a lot about Daz Cameron as a no-doubt 1-1 along the lines of Bryce Harper; Is that legit? As a Cubs fan I’m hoping 2015 is the last year the Cubs have a top-10 pick for quite a few years; How does the top of the draft look if Aiken and Bickford are factored in? As always, thanks for your insights!

 

Tom Driscoll

Madison, Wisc.

 

BA: Thanks for the question, Tom. I could give you my take on how the first round would shape up, but at this point, it makes much more sense to let Clint Longenecker, our well-traveled draft writer, chime in. Longenecker has been all over the country this summer to see the top high school and college players in next year’s draft class, and even more importantly, he’s been checking the pulse of scouts and scouting directors. Here’s his view of the 2015 class as the summer starts to wrap up:

 

There is no player currently in the 2015 draft class that the industry considers a “no-doubt 1-1″ pick along the lines of Harper, whom you mentioned. The top of the draft class has a lot of uncertainty, which is not typical at this point in the draft calendar after all of the looks teams have had this summer.

 

Aiken is one of the most talented players in the class, but his medicals create significant uncertainty, not to mention the rumors that have come out in the last week or two about his status.

 

The top of this draft class will likely be pitcher-heavy as it was last year, as the top three players on Aaron Fitt’s Cape Cod Top 30 Prospects list are pitchers, as are three of the top four on the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team list.

 

Phil Bickford, who has pedigree as a top-10 pick (2013), is not a favorite for 1-1, but does benefit from the uncertainty at the top. Bickford, who ranked sixth on the Cape list and was the fourth-ranked pitcher, will need to show improved velocity and secondary stuff in the rotation next spring to go in the top 10 picks. Although he was up to 97 in high school, that velocity spike was well-timed right before the draft, and has not played at that level in the rotation since, as his fastball was average in the rotation this spring. He worked out of the bullpen this summer, when his fastball was 92-95, touching 96. While touching 96 is impressive, it is less so out of the bullpen. The strong collection of Team USA relievers also accomplished or surpassed this feat: Dillon Tate (touched 99), Tyler Jay (97), Ryan Burr (96) and A.J. Minter (96).

 

Lining up just the college/junior college pitcher demographic, Bickford doesn’t rank in the top 8 currently, placing behind the other Cape arms—Walker Buehler (Vanderbilt), Kyle Cody (Kentucky) and Cody Ponce (Cal Poly Pomona)—as well as the Team USA starters—Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville), Carson Fulmer (Vanderbilt), James Kaprielian (UCLA) and Jake Lemoine (Houston). Neither summer college league list includes potentially the top left and righthanded college pitchers in Nathan Kirby (Virginia) and Michael Matuella (Duke).

 

While Bickford was on the Cape this summer, he doesn’t have the typical benefit of pitching in the most-heavily scouted summer college league because scouts did not think he was going to be draft-eligible, and therefore were not bearing down on him as much as the draft-eligible players. His atypical path to becoming a part of the 2015 class has created information asymmetry compared to his draft peers.

 

The top group of college position players currently ranks behind the pitchers. That group includes the top three from Team USA—Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt), Alex Bregman (LSU) and D.J. Stewart (Florida State)—and the top two for the Cape, Gio Brusa (Pacific) and Ian Happ (Cincinnati). All are talented and could go in the first round but each has questions to answer—if Swanson can successfully transition to shortstop, if Brusa can learn to control the zone better and perform at a level that is typically expected of a first-round college bat—before moving into the top 10, let alone top 5.

 

On the high school side, Florida shortstop Brendan Rodgers has positioned himself as the top prep position player in the eyes of many evaluators after a strong summer that includes an outstanding East Coast Pro showcase. Multiple scouting directors have mentioned him as a possible top-five pick, if not potentially higher. Daz Cameron is one of the top prep position players but did not have a summer where he separated himself from the rest of the class, including a subpar East Coast Pro that left evaluators searching for more.

 

One of the strengths of this draft class is high school bats and prep power. The class has significant outfield depth—Cameron, Nick Plummer (Mich.), Kyle Tucker (Fla.)—but lacks in the middle infield.

 

The prep pitching class is down from last year’s very strong crop. California lefthanders Kolby Allard and Justin Hooper have positioned themselves as the top prep southpaws, while the righthander demographic is a bit jumbled currently and is truly in the eyes of the beholder. The grouping of top righthanders includes Mike Nikorak (Pa.), Ashe Russell (Ind.), Donny Everett (Tenn.), Beau Burrows (Texas) and Chandler Day (Ohio).

 

The class will sort itself in the spring as it does every year, but there is less certainty than usual at this point in the draft calendar, which should make for an entertaining spring for draft watchers.

[Guest]

Comment From Steve

Anyone better than Mike Matuella to be drafted #1 overall next year? (anyone not named Cameron or Rodgers.)

 

Kiley McDaniel: I was gonna say Rodgers but apparently I can’t. The top of the draft is very shallow right now, though that will change in the spring.

 

Kiley McDaniel: I hope.

 

Comment From Wobatus

What’s your take on Brendan Rodgers? Can he move up at the pace of an Addison Russell or doesn’t have that upside? I recall there was some thought pre-draft that Russell might not stick at ss.

 

Kiley McDaniel: actually not a bad comp and i love the cross racial aspect. Rodgers hits more consistently as an amateur while Russell had trouble with kids that threw in the 80s. Russell is faster but Rodgers may be a better defender. Also, Russell’s shoulders are like 14 feet apart, which I feel like I have to mention.

[Guest]

Comment From Steve

Anyone better than Mike Matuella to be drafted #1 overall next year? (anyone not named Cameron or Rodgers.)

 

Kiley McDaniel: I was gonna say Rodgers but apparently I can’t. The top of the draft is very shallow right now, though that will change in the spring.

 

Kiley McDaniel: I hope.

 

Comment From Wobatus

What’s your take on Brendan Rodgers? Can he move up at the pace of an Addison Russell or doesn’t have that upside? I recall there was some thought pre-draft that Russell might not stick at ss.

 

Kiley McDaniel: actually not a bad comp and i love the cross racial aspect. Rodgers hits more consistently as an amateur while Russell had trouble with kids that threw in the 80s. Russell is faster but Rodgers may be a better defender. Also, Russell’s shoulders are like 14 feet apart, which I feel like I have to mention.

What are the chances that the Cubs can draft Rogers?

[Guest]

Comment From Steve

Anyone better than Mike Matuella to be drafted #1 overall next year? (anyone not named Cameron or Rodgers.)

 

Kiley McDaniel: I was gonna say Rodgers but apparently I can’t. The top of the draft is very shallow right now, though that will change in the spring.

 

Kiley McDaniel: I hope.

 

Comment From Wobatus

What’s your take on Brendan Rodgers? Can he move up at the pace of an Addison Russell or doesn’t have that upside? I recall there was some thought pre-draft that Russell might not stick at ss.

 

Kiley McDaniel: actually not a bad comp and i love the cross racial aspect. Rodgers hits more consistently as an amateur while Russell had trouble with kids that threw in the 80s. Russell is faster but Rodgers may be a better defender. Also, Russell’s shoulders are like 14 feet apart, which I feel like I have to mention.

What are the chances that the Cubs can draft Rogers?

 

At this time, he appears to be the leading candidate to go 1.1 so it's not looking good. Obviously he's only 17 and a lot can change between now and next June.

[davell]

Kiley's current rankings and write ups.(great read)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-mlb-draft-top-51/

[Redfoot]

I think he's heavy on Bickford, Swanson, Plummer and light on Russell, Betts and Kyle Cody (way light on him).

[Guest]

@jimcallisMLB: Source says RHP Phil Bickford has decided to attend CC of Southern Nevada, will enroll in spring. Should go very high in 2015 @MLBDraft.

[Guest]

BA's top 50: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2015-draft-clear-1-college-arms-dominate/

 

1. Brendan Rogers ss Lake Mary (FL) HS

2. Brady Aiken lhp No school

3. Michael Matuella rhp Duke

4. Kyle Funkhouser rhp Louisville

5. Walker Buehler rhp Vanderbilt

6. Dansby Swanson 2b/ss Vanderbilt

7. Justin Hooper lhp De La Salle HS (Concord, CA)

8. Kolby Allard lhp San Clemente HS (CA)

9. Trenton Clark of Richland HS (North Richland Hills, TX)

10 Nathan Kirby lhp Virginia

 

Summary of some of the thoughts BA had on next year's draft:

 

“There is no obvious candidate for (the No. 1 pick) this year,” one scouting director said. “Of the last four drafts, this is the shallowest and murkiest at the top. College pitching typically goes at the top of the draft. But this year’s college pitching crop is down at the top of the draft, although there is a good depth of arms. Guys like Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon in previous years had pushed to the top of the class at the end of the summer. And someone will in this year’s class, but we’ll probably have to wait for the spring.”

 

The Class of ’15 could also include Class of ’14’s No. 1 overall pick, though the status of lefthander Brady Aiken remained unsettled. Aiken didn’t sign with the Astros, and has not enrolled at a four-year school (he was originally committed to UCLA) or a junior college. He could wind up in a strong juco crop that already includes righty Phil Bickford (JC of Southern Nevada), an unsigned 2013 first-rounder who transferred from Cal State Fullerton.

 

...

 

The strongest demographic for 2015 looks like high school position players, a group that has athletes, power bats and depth. Florida prep shortstop Brendan Rodgers ranks at the top of the list after a loud summer and fall with the bat. He is an advanced high school hitter with great instincts and feel for the game who has the potential to hit for average and power while remaining at shortstop.

 

“Normally, with the high school position players, you have to project on the bats and dream on them a little bit,” another scouting director said. “But it’s the other way around with some of these top high school bats, because they are showing you now hitting ability.”

 

Some of the other top prep bats are lefthanded-hitting outfielders Nick Plummer and Trenton Clark, who both performed at a high level this summer, and Daz Cameron. The strength of the high school class is the outfield. Clark is a high-makeup performer with leadership qualities, the potential to remain in center field because of his instincts and a strong combination of hitting ability and power potential.

 

“This has a chance to be the best group of high school outfielders we have seen in years,” an assistant scouting director said.

 

...

 

The second-strongest group is the college arms. Pitchers dominated with Team USA and the top of the Cape Cod League, and three of the top college pitchers didn’t throw this summer: lefthander Nathan Kirby, who helped pitch Virginia to the College World Series and has looked good this fall; Matuella; and Texas Christian righthander Riley Ferrell, who used the summer to shed weight and get in better shape.

 

...

 

The high school pitching crop is down from an incredibly talented group of arms last year. Two lefthanders from California committed to UCLA, Justin Hooper and Kolby Allard, have pushed to the top of the prep pitching class. Evaluators differ on which they like more while offering contrasting styles, body types and stuff. Hooper, who has the higher upside but faces strike-throwing questions, fits the profile of a prep arm that will go early in the draft, featuring a 6-foot-7 frame and the best fastball in the prep class, reaching up to 97 mph. The 6-foot Allard, one of the youngest players in the class and a star for Team USA this summer, has an easy delivery and a fastball that sits 90-92 over extended innings while touching 96, along with one of the best breaking balls in the prep class.

 

...

 

After a down year in the junior college ranks, with only three players going in the top three rounds (compared to six over the last five years), this year’s junior college crop shapes up as one of the best in recent years. No. 10 overall pick in 2013 Phil Bickford left Cal State Fullerton after pitching on the Cape this summer. Although Bickford was the only junior college player to make the Top 50, lefthander Mac Marshall and outfielder/first baseman Isiah Gilliam, both from the powerhouse Parkview (Ga.) High program and now at Chipola (Fla.) JC, were considerations for the list. Marshall, who left Louisiana State earlier this fall, ranked No. 57 on the BA 500 for 2014 and was selected in the 21st round by the Astros after an uneven spring.

 

...

 

The weakest demographic in the class is college position players, with just seven in the top 50. But some of the college performers with pedigrees from this summer—such as Arizona shortstop Kevin Newman, Alabama shortstop Mikey White and Tennessee outfielder Christian Stewart—have a chance to push into the top 50 for teams that value track records of performance.

[Cubswin11]

Looks like Law posted a new top 30, if someone wouldn't mind spark noting and/or mention anything interesting

[Guest]

MLB.com released their draft top 50: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=draft

 

1. Brendan Rogers, SS, Lake Mary HS (FL) - Florida St commit

2. Michael Matuela, RHP, Duke

3. Brady Aiken, LHP, formerly of Cathedral HS (San Diego, CA) - UCLA commit?

4. Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt

5. Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia

6. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville

7. Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente HS (CA) - UCLA commit

8. Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle's Landing Chrisitan Academy (McDonough, GA) - Florida State commit

9. Dansby Swanson, 2B/SS, Vanderbilt

10. Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral HS (Indianapolis, IN) - Texas A&M commit

[Guest]

We want the Funk, gota have that Funk.

 

His walk up music.