With a Team as Streaky (and Slumpy) as the 2026 Chicago Cubs, It's Important to Stay Even-Keeled

The Cubs were an unimpressive (but not concerning) 7-9 through their first 16 games of the 2026 campaign. It was too early to tell how good they had a chance to be—especially because Cade Horton was already gone for the year but they were just getting Seiya Suzuki back—but they were gradually coming into focus. It seemed like things would be clearer in a month or so.

As is true when cleaning your mirrors, though, in baseball, streaks make everything blurrier. Since that 7-9 start, the Cubs have:

• Won 10
• Lost 3
• Won 10
• Lost 4
• Won 2
• Lost 4

In a 33-game slice of a 162-game season, the team hasn't alternated wins and losses over any three-game span. They're 22-11 over this period, which is the most salient fact to take away from it, but they're also a team that seems to oscillate between great and ghastly in longer arcs than others. The offense has been hit-or-miss. The pitching has been unable to demonstrate consistency amid all their injury problems, even as the bullpen has gradually become (almost) whole again. Even their vaunted defense has unexpected hiccups.

Heading into Wednesday's series finale against the Brewers, the Cubs have already lost the set and (for now, anyway) have fallen out of first place in the NL Central. They're slumping badly, and that's no longer to be considered a minor aberration. They might end up with a very good record, or not, but this team has a lot of volatility to it.

Nico Hoerner's season has seen him start with four scorching weeks, then slog through four dreadful ones. He showed signs of getting back into the groove in Tuesday night's loss, which is encouraging. Dansby Swanson started with a miniature barrage of homers and drew a ton of walks over the first month, but has been a strikeout machine of late. He, too, looks like he might be rounding back into form.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the opposite of those two: he started abysmally, but has been (if not quite his best self) a very productive hitter over the last month. Ditto for Michael Busch. The lineup is full of stories like these; so is the starting rotation. Suzuki has always been streaky at the plate, but he's avoided two-week nadirs so far. His source of volatility is defense, where he's made more difficult plays this year but spent most of the last road trip watching balls land just beyond his reach.

Streakiness doesn't disqualify a team from being good, but it puts a big dent in ambitions to be great. The Brewers are reminding the Cubs of that, forcefully. Milwaukee came to town having weathered many of the same kinds of losses and frustrations as Chicago so far this year, and they haven't had a run where they got red-hot—until now. But they've also avoided losing more than six out of 10 in any stretch. This is the recipe with which they've beaten the Cubs in the division race for three straight years: the same preparedness to ride a wave and get hot, but better insulation against going cold.

The most consistent player on the 2026 Cubs, unsurprisingly, has been Alex Bregman. He's not firing on all cylinders yet, but he's put together competitive at-bats even during his colder snaps. Jed Hoyer spent big on Bregman on the premise that he would have a hugely positive influence on his teammates; that needs to show up in the weeks and months ahead. If Bregman continues to warm up as he works through some of the timing issues that have plagued him so far, he can pull the Cubs up with him, and the team might discover greater, more durable consistency. For now, though, they look like one of those teams who could still with 96 games, or 83, based solely on whether they happen to be hot or cold when the music stops in late September.

For a roster built to be as good this year as they'll be any time in the next half-decade, that's not especially comforting—but it does give them upside, and they have plenty of time to realize it. Streaks and slumps make it feel late early; the reality is that we know less about this team right now than we know about most clubs after 50 games. The next 50 should be more telling. For now, it's important to avoid both panic and Pollyanna.