2015 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Nathan Kirby getting started for UVA on ESPN2 now.

 

First pitch 94 mph.

[Guest]

Jim Callis came up with the best prospect for each team at the College World Series. 4 are 2015 draft eligible (and ahead of teammates selected in the first two rounds this year, like Brandon Finnegan, Tyler Beede, Nick Burdi and Derek Fisher). Amusingly, Ole Miss' best two prospects are both freshmen draft eligible in 2016: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/college-world-series-begins-saturday-filled-with-stars?ymd=20140612&content_id=79419142&vkey=news_mlb

 

Riley Ferrell, RHP, Texas Christian -- Ferrell has put up video game numbers as the Horned Frogs' closer: 0.68 ERA, 15 saves, 64 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings, and a .124 opponent average. He has video game stuff, too, with a fastball that peaks at 98 mph and an overpowering slider. His stuff is a little better than Finnegan's, and Ferrell might get the chance to replace him in the TCU rotation next year. To succeed in that role, the 6-foot-1, 200-pounder will have to refine his changeup and command.

 

Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt -- Beede may be a two-time first-round pick, but he still can be frustratingly inconsistent. Fulmer's ERA this season (1.78) is less than half of Beede's (3.58), and he has been the Commodores' best starter since transitioning from closer at midseason. His best pitches are a 93-95 mph fastball that tops out at 97 and a hard slider, and he also has a changeup to neutralize left-handers. He attacks hitters and though he's undersized (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), he has a strong lower half and should hold up in the rotation.

 

Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville -- While Burdi can run his fastball into triple digits and his slider into the low 90s, he's strictly a reliever. Funkhouser has a chance to be a frontline starter in the big leagues after serving in that role for the Cardinals. He's tied for the NCAA Division I lead in wins with a 13-2 and a 1.78 record. Funkhouser works with a 93-95 mph fastball that hits 97, and he also employs a fine changeup and a solid slider. The 6-foot-2, 218-pounder will need to improve his control and command.

 

Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia -- The best prospect on this list, Kirby stands out on the most talented team in Omaha. After a lackluster freshman year as a reliever, he has gone 9-2 with 1.73 ERA. He also has 104 strikeouts in as many innings, and spun an 18-strikeout no-hitter in April. He has a nice three-pitch mix with a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider and a solid changeup. He throws strikes too, and if the 6-foot-2, 185-pounder keeps improving at this rate, he could go very early in the 2015 Draft.

[Guest]

@NathanRode: Based on the prep arms I've already seen & a few sophomores in the #CWS, I'm pretty psyched for the 2015 #mlbdraft.

[jersey cubs fan]

@NathanRode: Based on the prep arms I've already seen & a few sophomores in the #CWS, I'm pretty psyched for the 2015 #mlbdraft.

 

Weren't people psyched for the dud 2014 draft a year ago?

[Cubswin11]

I'm not getting excited about potential pitchers in a draft a year out

[toonsterwu]

@NathanRode: Based on the prep arms I've already seen & a few sophomores in the #CWS, I'm pretty psyched for the 2015 #mlbdraft.

 

Weren't people psyched for the dud 2014 draft a year ago?

 

Arm wise ... yes ... and no. A lot of the excitement was, realistically, over Rodon, as the perception was that, after a perceived "down" year with Appel and Gray, that Rodon would be that elite college arm. Even last year, there were a lot of folks with mixed feelings about Beede, while Hoffman was sort of lurking.

 

There's a lot of justifiable excitement with the college arm class for next year, IMO. Now, some of them will falter, but there are more guys coming off exciting years that look like top picks, IMO, than there was at the same point in 2013. Raisin could probably provide a better analysis as to whether or not this is a fair statement, as I don't follow college baseball that closely, but that's just my gut take with guys like Fulmer, Matuella, and Kirby.

 

A lot can and will go wrong, though, so in a year's time, we'll see (I still don't love Funkhouser, for some reason, and I'm not sure Ferrell is a starter, although he sure was nasty last night). It feels stronger than this year's class at the top at the same point in time, though.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not getting excited about potential pitchers in a draft a year out

 

That's definitely a fair perspective, but I think it's rather exciting since we will have a high pick and the college arm class looks ... very good as of now and we might be able to nab a polished college arm with high upside that is close to ready. The depth feels strong, so we should be able to get another good arm in the 2nd round.

 

Admittedly, a lot can change in a year, but we still need elite pitching talent, and the 2015 class could provide that for us.

[jersey cubs fan]

It feels stronger than this year's class at the top at the same point in time, though.

 

I don't see how it is possible to accurately judge how excited you were about something a year ago and then compare it to how you feel about the next thing now, especially when we know how disappointing that thing became.

[Guest]

After the PG National Showcase, Kiley McDaniel still thinks Brendan Rodgers is better than Daz Cameron and is the best prep prospect in 2015: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1413349.html

 

Orlando-area prep SS Brendan Rodgers (Lake Mary HS/FL/Florida State commit) moved into the top spot of my 2015 prep list after I saw him show considerable progress just before the 2014 draft at the East Coast Pro Showcase tryout and was told by multiple sources that CF Daz Cameron (Eagle’s Landing HS/GA/Florida State) wasn’t quite what the hype machine had made him out to be. Rodgers is now legitimately in the class of 2014’s #5 overall pick SS Nick Gordon (another Orlando-area product that committed to Florida State) and has to be taken seriously as a top 5 overall pick.

 

Rodgers was earning raves from scouts that ran into him this spring for his game power after hanging with the seniors in the 2014 class all summer/fall at major events. Like Gordon, he’s only a solid-average runner and doesn’t have flashy defensive tools, but makes the most of his ability and should stick at the position. Rodgers doesn’t have Gordon’s plus arm or fallback plan on the mound, but has a grade or two better raw power (Rodgers flashes grade 55 raw power now, with Gordon’s a current 45 that I project to 50) and similar if not better bat speed. Gordon is a left-handed hitter that has more projection to his frame and big league bloodlines, but if both stick at short as expected, have similar bats and speed and Rodgers has more power, it’s hard to ignore that, by next June, Rodgers may be a superior prospect and isn’t that far off right now.

 

Cameron has legit plus speed that profiles in center field and a live bat with smooth mechanics and some feel to hit, the hype that he was a Justin Upton type draft prospect was a little overheated. Cameron also has big time bloodlines from father Mike Cameron and he’s still clearly one of the top few bats in the class, but Rodgers has the title right now, and by a decent margin.

 

Link is a free story with a lot more about the top prospects for 2015 at the showcase, plus one top Mexican for the 2015 IFA class and the bit on Isaiah Gilliam which I posted in the 2014 Cubs draft thread.

 

Also a little perspective on this particular showcase:

 

To that point, last year’s PG National featured every single one of the prep prospects to go in the top 34 picks last week (the 1st and compensation rounds).

 

...

 

I point all that out to say that the cream of the prep crop that go in the top 20-30 picks are very often known to be that kind of prospect after this event, 11.5 months before next year’s draft. Of course, players rise, fall and get hurt and there are late velo spikes (like Phil Bickford two years ago) and physical maturations that happen over the next year. That said, the players you are most interested in, that have top half of the first round potential, are known early (particularly the hitters) and you’ll likely see their names below (then copied and pasted on other blogs).

[Guest]

For those interested, Vandy vs Virginia will offer a rare College World Series final with elite professional talent and numerous first rounders. Besides Tyler Beede and Nick Howard, I see as many as 8 potential 2015 first rounders: Carson Fulmer, Walker Buehler, James Ferguson and Dansby Swanson for Vandy and Nathan Kirby, Brandon Waddell, Josh Sborz and Joe McCarthy for Virginia.

[toonsterwu]

Fulmer, if he can pitch the way he did tonight next year, is my favorite for 1-1 as of now. I like his secondary stuff better than Matuella, he's a bit more electric than Kirby with a better changeup, and I forget the TCU arm right now, but I sure didn't buy him as a starter yet. That said, Fulmer was also eh versus Texas. Swanson looked real good, though. If his defense at short is plus, as people are expecting, I wouldn't be shocked if he went top 10. That's a good bat.

 

McCarthy has to tap into that power a bit more to be a first rounder. I would guess he's in the same range that Fisher/Papi went this year, as of now - that is, a late first - mid-2nd type of guy. As electric as Sborz's stuff is, I'm not sure I buy him as a first rounder if he stays in the rotation. Now, move him to the pen, let him whip out 97-100+ and that slider ... maybe some team pulls the gun. Not sure Waddell is a first round type unless he finds some velo. Pitchability lefthander with a ton of poise, but the stuff seems just lacking that touch. Could be close, I guess, depending on how the class breaks next year. The UVA guy I am quietly fascinated with is Kenny Towns. Not first round fascinated, but he really swung a good bat in the post-season and if he keeps that up, I could see him as a 2nd-3rd round senior type.

[Gmoney08]

Obviously its far ahead but what kind of draft is this shaping up to be?

 

It the number 1 pick (great, average, or below average) compared to past number 1 prospects?

 

Is it a draft where top 2, top 3 are all similar?

 

Is it a draft where top 7 ends up quite similar?

[toonsterwu]

Others can provide better answers, but on the surface, the draft looks better than this year's IMO, because the college pitching looks better. Of course, a year ago, Rodon/Beede were looked at as two guys that would make this draft better than the year before (with Appel/Gray), and well, that didn't pan out. So, a long way to go. On the surface, I do wonder if the prep bats are better, but others more knowledgeable are better equipped at answering that.

[Guest]

Others can provide better answers, but on the surface, the draft looks better than this year's IMO, because the college pitching looks better. Of course, a year ago, Rodon/Beede were looked at as two guys that would make this draft better than the year before (with Appel/Gray), and well, that didn't pan out. So, a long way to go. On the surface, I do wonder if the prep bats are better, but others more knowledgeable are better equipped at answering that.

I'm no expert either, but judging by the last two drafts I don't think anybody will know until a couple of weeks before the draft. There is just too much time and things to happen in that time to give an answer.

[Tryptamine]

As of now, I like the 2015 class the most of any class since the loaded 2011 Javy Baez class. Excellent college arms, really nice prep hitters, etc. Granted things can change quickly. In 2013 I thought that 2014 class was going to be leaps and bounds better than 2013 but it ended up being very disappointing.

[Neuby]

5th in the standings right only 3.5 out for the 1 pick!

[shnsajax]

Astros are picking 2nd already. Guys with potential arm problems are turning down money to avoid that franchise.

[toonsterwu]

As much as I want to dislike Luhnow's approach to things, I find it hard to blame him in this situation if the reports that Aiken has less UCL (or whatever is the medically correct term) than most people is true. The problem, with the situation, if I have one, is that Luhnow shouldn't have come to a verbal agreement so quickly on other overslots (namely Nix) unless he was certain he had the full 1-1 slot to work with (that is, Aiken was signed down). The chances of Aiken getting 5 mil, or whatever was offered, in the future seems slim.

 

This really might work out better for the Astros, as they might end up with a good college pitcher to replace what was lost with Aiken, and a bundle of room to make a ton of moves with. They should "own" next year's draft if they play it right.

[Guest]

There's logic to lowering your valuation of Aiken based on the findings of the MRI, but the Astros approach is a terrible over-simplification. There's also no chance they come out ahead. They lost a 1.1 pick and a signability 5th rounder, have a slim chance of a grievance destroying their 2015 draft in a similar fashion, and damaged their ability to negotiate with pretty much any draftee that has leverage. All over 3 million dollars. More and more Luhnow looks like he's the autistic Depodesta.

[Guest]

Not all 2015 guys:

 

@keithlaw: Also, finally saw some velocity tonight on the Cape - Walker Bueller 90-94, Zack Burdi 94-96, Phil Bickford 92-94

 

@FPilierePG: One of those big nights for velocity in Chatham. Phil Bickford (97 mph), Zack Burdi (97 mph), Walker Buehler (94 mph), Paul Covelle (92 mph)

 

Good for Bickford. He struggled with velocity his freshman year at Fullerton and you hate seeing that after seeing how much money he turned down in 2013.

 

With regards to UCLA guys eligible for 2015, James Kaprielian has been dominating for Team USA and Cody Poteet has strung along a couple of strong outings on the Cape.

[Guest]

And for you Illinois fans, Illini LHP Tyler Jay has been having a great summer for Team USA, topping out at 97. He's been coming out of the pen and there are some questions if he can legitimately start at the next level. If he can address that next spring, he should be a top 20 pick.

 

LSU SS Alex Bregman, who had a down sophomore season but still has a lot of top 5 hype, was the Team USA MVP as they won gold.

[wvcbxl]

LSU SS Alex Bregman, who had a down sophomore season but still has a lot of top 5 hype, was the Team USA MVP as they won gold.

 

Not sure what gold you're referring to, but Team USA won the Haarlem tournament in The Netherlands yesterday (beating Japan in the final).

Bregman was the tournament MVP, and DJ Steward the best hitter at .435 BA

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I know I'm biased but Bregman is going to be a player at the MLB level.

[Guest]

Competitve Balance pick lottery was today.

 

Round A

 

Marlins

Rockies

Cardinals

Brewers

Padres

Indians

 

Round B

 

Reds

Athletics

Mariners

Twins

Orioles

Diamondbacks

 

So that's 7 of the other 14 teams in the NL and 3 of the other 4 teams in our division given an extra pick because reasons. Sigh.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

What a ridiculous system.