The Junior Lake thread

[Guest]

Considering the lack of other moves made this offseason, signing Cruz to a one year deal wouldn't have been smart at all. Losing a 2nd rounder for ONE year of a guy isn't smart, unless you've made other moves to out yourself much closer to contention, than what we have.

 

It's not that the 2nd rounder is even all that valuable. But in that exact case, you're just donating it.

 

If the cubs true talent level is equivalent to their run total than yeah id say donating a 2nd rounder for an improvement to a glaring weakness would have been a good call. People can't play the "hey the cubs are pretty ok look at pythag" card while simultaneously playing the what a waste it would have been to try his offseason we're 11 games under 500 in May" card

 

The problem with Cruz is he may not be capable of playing anywhere

This new offensive environment has finally caused me to come around to the DH.

[sneakypower]

I hate to agree with Kyle even a little, but just about everything in his numbers suggests that Lake's performance (which as been decent, but not great) is unsustainable. That said, there's enough potential there that given the lack of alternatives, there's also very little reason not to let him play until time and regression to the mean bear that out.

 

Regardless of the reasons, he's been decent, and I have no problem with him playing until he ceases to be. Who knows, he might even make some adjustments and be useful in the long term.

ZiPS right now projects Lake for the best BABIP in baseball going forward, at .345...it is a skill, and he might be the best at it right now

 

so he's still overperforming that a little bit, and ZiPS is skeptical his power will sustain at current levels*, but i'd also argue he's underperformed in other areas of the game like baserunning and throwing, to where he might lose some offense and still be very able to gain back production in other areas to where he's still performing at an average/above-average level

 

*if the model doesn't factor in speed, then i disagree somewhat with this

[Sammy Sofa]

Considering the lack of other moves made this offseason, signing Cruz to a one year deal wouldn't have been smart at all. Losing a 2nd rounder for ONE year of a guy isn't smart, unless you've made other moves to out yourself much closer to contention, than what we have.

 

It's not that the 2nd rounder is even all that valuable. But in that exact case, you're just donating it.

 

If the cubs true talent level is equivalent to their run total than yeah id say donating a 2nd rounder for an improvement to a glaring weakness would have been a good call. People can't play the "hey the cubs are pretty ok look at pythag" card while simultaneously playing the what a waste it would have been to try his offseason we're 11 games under 500 in May" card

 

I love you, Spartacus.

[Guest]

WHY'D YOU TAKE OUT THAT LAST PART ABOUT YOUR BOY CRUZ EH

[Sammy Sofa]

BECAUSE THE SENTIMENT CAN, SADLY, BE APPLIED TO MORE THAN JUST CRUZ.

 

*Weeps*

 

Plus I'm barely paying attention to baseball this year and never got an answer when I asked this; is he ending up as the DH so much this year because of rumored or discussed health issues, or is it to fit him into the lineup with a better defensive option? It's not like he was dwelling in the DH spot before this year.

[Guest]

It's because he's very nearly Dominican Ibanez at this point.

 

Also, it's not at all incompatible to say the Cubs have played okay so far this year and also to say it would have been silly to forfeit a 2nd round pick and pool money for a league averageish player.

[Sammy Sofa]

Like I said, it applies to more than just Cruz. The Cubs have passed on several potential "help now" options. Choo's puttin' some stank on it so far.

[Guest]

Like I said, it applies to more than just Cruz. The Cubs have passed on several potential "help now" options. Choo's puttin' some stank on it so far.

Another good example of a bad investment for an NL team.

[Sammy Sofa]

Like I said, it applies to more than just Cruz. The Cubs have passed on several potential "help now" options. Choo's puttin' some stank on it so far.

Another good example of a bad investment for an NL team.

 

The reality is that a lot of outfielders that hit well aren't too hot defensively. But yeah, lets keep passing on them because that's working out thunderously well so far.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The reality is that a lot of outfielders that hit well aren't too hot defensively. But yeah, lets keep passing on them because that's working out thunderously well so far.

 

You say that with sarcasm, but did you not see the run differential?

[Sammy Sofa]

YOU LOOK AT IT.

[Guest]

Like I said, it applies to more than just Cruz. The Cubs have passed on several potential "help now" options. Choo's puttin' some stank on it so far.

 

Well yeah, Choo's a completely different caliber of player, and requires a long term commitment. Personally I know I would've loved to have Ellsbury's production right now, regardless of the pick, but that's not really germane to people saying that forfeiting a 2nd rounder to get a player like Cruz(average production, short term) is a bad idea for the 2014 Cubs.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm saying that the Cubs have multiple bad decisions, both short and long term, when it comes to the OF.

[RammyFanny]

Like I said, it applies to more than just Cruz. The Cubs have passed on several potential "help now" options. Choo's puttin' some stank on it so far.

 

Well yeah, Choo's a completely different caliber of player, and requires a long term commitment. Personally I know I would've loved to have Ellsbury's production right now, regardless of the pick, but that's not really germane to people saying that forfeiting a 2nd rounder to get a player like Cruz(average production, short term) is a bad idea for the 2014 Cubs.

I was never really sold on Ellsbury at all, personally. I think his OPS is now in the .600's after tonight. Bleh.

[SouthSideRyan]

We get it, every FA is a bad idea

[Sammy Sofa]

TT, who is a FA that the Cubs passed or missed on that you wish they had ended up with (besides the obvious IFA's)?

[RammyFanny]

We get it, every FA is a bad idea

Only the bad ones. I was all aboard the Choo wagon to get an established bat in the lineup and ease in the young guys. OBP ages well.

[Guest]

TT, who is a FA that the Cubs passed or missed on that you wish they had ended up with (besides the obvious IFA's)?

 

Just scanning the list that they could've used and I would've given their contracts to: Ellsbury, Ubaldo, Hughes, Kazmir, Anibal, & D. Murphy, and at the time I would've given the money to Upton, Bourn, and McCarthy and been made to look foolish. I was also pretty happy with the Jackson signing.

[Guest]

We get it, every FA is a bad idea

Still want Prince's contract?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We get it, every FA is a bad idea

Still want Prince's contract?

 

I'd take it over the perpetually rolled over payroll space.

[SouthSideRyan]

We get it, every FA is a bad idea

Still want Prince's contract?

 

Nope which is why I hope we don't sign anybody this offseason too.

[davell]

I hate to say it, but other than younger IFA's, I don't see us signing any large(3years and up) type contracts until we have seen Javy and KB in the majors.

[SouthSideRyan]

I hate to say it, but other than younger IFA's, I don't see us signing any large(3years and up) type contracts until we have seen Javy and KB in the majors.

 

This sis what I'm thinking too. We'll make a futile run at Maeda, wind up with a 1-2 year deal on an OF coming off a disappointing year and probably the same for a SP or 2. I don't think Masterson is happening

 

ETA Markakis, Billingsley, McCarthy?

[Guest]

We get it, every FA is a bad idea

Still want Prince's contract?

 

Nope which is why I hope we don't sign anybody this offseason too.

Honestly, I'm not sure I see anyone above a mid-tier guy that I want to sign.

 

I'm coming around to the Shark-to-Boston idea if we can get Betts and stick him in CF next year and get a couple AAA arms that could hit the rotation. I'm confident Javy will figure things out and I think Bryant will be ready early next year, too.

 

Take Castillo, Rizzo, Baez, Valbuena/Olt, Castro, Bryant, Betts and Lake as a starting point and add some mid-tier FA as performance collapse protection (someone like Headley or Rasmus could come cheap right now even though they're not this bad).

 

Ideally, we use other minor league assets combined with Olt, Lake or other cheap MLB assets to get Stanton in a trade. We would almost certainly have to include one of Javy or Bryant in the trade, as well, but we have the assets needed to get it done if he goes on the market next winter.

 

I'm reasonably confident the lineup will be average or better in 2015 and will just get better as time goes on. If we managed to trade for Stanton, the lineup could be outstanding.

 

For pitching, we'd have Wood, Arrieta, Jackson, Hammel-type, Boston Guy, Boston Guy, Hendricks as the base. Plus a potential guy in return for Hammel. Certainly not exciting, but could be league average when combined with a strong pen.

 

Then there's a fairly deep list of FA for the mound, too. My preferences on pitching FA almost certainly prevents me from offering a contract to anyone on the top tier (Scherzer, Shields, Lester) at the years they will get. But I'd love to target someone like Iwakuma who may not get longer than a 3-4 year contract due to age. Heck, I wouldn't mind signing Hammel back on a 2-3 year deal and he may not get more than that due to his injury history.

 

So, in short, I'm not against spending on FA. But I'm probably not going near the top tiers of guys that will command 6-10 year deals this offseason.

 

ETA-----------------------

 

I totally forgot about Maeda. He's not the pitcher that Darvish or Tanaka were over there. Given the success of those guys in MLB, though, it's tough to gauge what kind of contract he'll receive here. I'd certainly want to be in the mix for him, though. Especially if it can get done on a four to five year contract.

[treebird]

I hate to say it, but other than younger IFA's, I don't see us signing any large(3years and up) type contracts until we have seen Javy and KB in the majors.

 

This sis what I'm thinking too. We'll make a futile run at Maeda, wind up with a 1-2 year deal on an OF coming off a disappointing year and probably the same for a SP or 2. I don't think Masterson is happening

 

ETA Markakis, Billingsley, McCarthy?

 

i wouldn't be so quick to write off masterson. he kind of sucks this year and his velocity is way down so if he can get the surgery soon enough he might be a target.