The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Clem Fandango]

Then I'll take a stab at it.

 

They had comparable FIP's, Samardzija's bWAR and fWAR were lower this season likely due to him being shut down early and the Cubs not wanting him to rack up more innings. Had he pitched a full season he may have been able to come closer to the value Shields put up (possibly more). And the one month Samardzija struggled in June (and was the reason his numbers are as high as they are) was because the team had him experiment with a new pitch that didn't work out at all, so after a month they abandoned it and he went back to being a guy who looked like he could be an ace. He had a 3.09 ERA entering June. After June he had a 5.05 ERA. His ERA from July until the end of his season was 2.58. Samardzija was a stud.

 

One of the biggest reasons people cite Shields as an "ace" is his ability to go deep into ballgames and rack up a lot of innings. I think Shields and Samardzija are very comparable pitchers in that regard. Shields has experience and proven stamina on his side. Samardzija was held back this season though, and he could easily turn into an innings eater with his repertoire.

 

Number of times Samardzija reached the 7th inning or later: 14 (in 28 starts)

Number of times Shields reached the 7th inning or later: 18 (in 33 starts)

 

Number of times Samardzija threw 100+ pitches in those 14 starts: 9

Number of times Shields threw 100+ pitches in those 18 starts: 16

 

Number of times Samardzija threw 110+ pitches in those 9 starts: 4

Number of times Shields threw 110+ pitches in those 16 starts: 9

 

That was with Samardzija being used conservatively. I think Samardzija could have easily been as desirable an acquisition as James Shields. The only knock against Samardzija that you could say worked against him is the fact he's only been starting for one season. Other than that, all signs point to him being as good, if not better, than James Shields in almost every other regard. Samardzija also had a better K/9 than Shields, which people also cite as a positive for Shields. People think he's a big K guy. He's good, but he's also never had a K/9 of 9.0 or more. His K numbers look bloated because he pitches a lot of innings, when the reality is he technically strikes out less than a batter per inning. His K/9 is still good, but the notion some have that he's a top notch K pitcher is a tiny bit misleading. Shields' K/9 was 17th best in the majors. Samardzija's was 4th. That's my opinion on the two, and why I think you could've easily made a case for Samardzija and Shields being a wash in a deal for Myers.

[NonProfitCow]

The main hiccup in the logic is that the Royals were obviously looking at someone who was proven. Shields has pretty much done what Samardzija has done once for 6 straight years in the toughest division in baseball.

 

And while I like Wood, Davis also has a bit more of a track record as well as talent on his side.

 

IMO, to get the Royals package you're probably looking at Garza+Samardzija.

[Guest]

Kyle,

 

I'm curious - who do you feel came out ahead on the Royals - Rays swap? For the moment, forget what else KC might have gotten in return for those prospects. Who do you feel will get the best value in the trade?

[davell]

I don't think that at all. Shark may not even be peaking. If his June had been normal(not experimenting) and he had pitched in September, I think he would have been a 5 WAR guy. He may get better the more he pitches too. Personally, I think he'd bring as much or more of a return than Shields got. He's just scratching the surface, in my mind.

[Guest]

I don't think that at all. Shark may not even be peaking. If his June had been normal(not experimenting) and he had pitched in September, I think he would have been a 5 WAR guy. He may get better the more he pitches too. Personally, I think he'd bring as much or more of a return than Shields got. He's just scratching the surface, in my mind.

NPC is right though regarding the Royals' opinion of Shields. The Royals were clearly looking for a proven ace, Garza wouldn't match Shields, let alone Samardzija in that department.

[Clem Fandango]

Shields' fWAR was steadily going down in 4 consecutive seasons before it spiked in 2011, and again trended downward this season. He's not a bad pitcher, but I think Samardzija is being undervalued in this situation while Shields is being overvalued. Technically neither are a sure thing. Shields HAS shown inconsistency, albeit positive inconsistency (3-year fWARs between 2009-2011 of 3.7, 2.0, 4.9), but they traded Myers for someone who is a sure bet ace, and Shields isn't exactly that. If Garza were healthy, and it were after 2011, Garza is all it should have taken. Garza right now? I don't know how much value he holds in terms of player/prospect return value.

 

And to clarify I like Davis vs. Wood a lot more as well in terms of starter potential, but Wood still holds value as a starter where it's debatable if Davis will actualy be good enough to stick in a rotation. Davis was an outstanding pen arm this past season, but has been a bust as a starter during the rest of his career. The Royals are either going to find out that if he can't stick in the rotation then they relegate him to the pen where he likely flourishes, but then they have team control contract options from 2015 until 2017 which look nice if he's a starter, not so much if he's a reliever... so they may not exercise those options due to cost if he's a reliever and he ends up being a 2 year reliever, whereas Wood might be a 4 year starter/reliever regardless of contract situations.

 

Marmol + cash to help cover his remaining contract this season is the cherry on top that gives them a big bullpen arm to help them compete this season like they're desperately trying to do.

 

Also if I were Dayton Moore I don't know if I'd trade Myers for this package of players... I'm merely just saying that I think this package of players is comparable to the one they got. Same with Barney + Jackson for Bauer. I don't think either package should net the ones those teams gave up... but for some reason they did, and if tha twas the case, I think these packages should've been enough to compete.

[NonProfitCow]

Meanwhile...

 

The Cards return for Schumaker is 23 year old SS Jake Lemmerman. Has a MiLB career line of .285 .377 .448 .825, although most of the SLG is from rookie ball. Struggles with contact/strikeouts, but posts solid BB rates. No idea how he rates defensively.

[NonProfitCow]

If Davis is a bust as a starter Wood is as well. At this point Davis has had more success than Wood as both a starter and reliever.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm not saying Wood is a sure thing, but if the odds of Wood vs. Davis being stuck at the back end of the rotation had to tilt in someone's favor, Wood probably edges him out. Wood is a 4 win pitcher (fWAR) over 61 starts in 3 seasons (1.6 bWAR)... Davis was a 2.6 win pitcher over 64 starts in 3 seasons (0.6 bWAR). Davis was the same age Wood was during his starter years, too. (23, 24, 25). Honestly the two of them could also be a wash.

[jersey cubs fan]

Shields HAS shown inconsistency, albeit positive inconsistency (3-year fWARs between 2009-2011 of 3.7, 2.0, 4.9), but they traded Myers for someone who is a sure bet ace, and Shields isn't exactly that.

 

That is one of the most pointless points I've read on here.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Kyle,

 

I'm curious - who do you feel came out ahead on the Royals - Rays swap? For the moment, forget what else KC might have gotten in return for those prospects. Who do you feel will get the best value in the trade?

 

Probably Rays. Six years of sweet pre-FA control on Myers vs. two years of Shields. Myers has some warts, but Shields has some too pitching outside of Tampa and that defense, plus he's a pitcher and all pitchers risky bets.

 

I don't think they'll get what they hope to get out of Wade Davis, either.

[SouthSideRyan]

It'd feel better if we'd like spread out Baker and Feldman so that one came during the Winter Meetings or something.

 

FG's is doing a chat right now, and two of them listed the Cubs as a team who "impressed them the most" this offseason.

 

How has anything from the Cubs been impressive this offseason? Our 2014 team is the same [expletive] sandwich it was 2 months ago.

[NonProfitCow]

It'd feel better if we'd like spread out Baker and Feldman so that one came during the Winter Meetings or something.

 

FG's is doing a chat right now, and two of them listed the Cubs as a team who "impressed them the most" this offseason.

 

How has anything from the Cubs been impressive this offseason? Our 2014 team is the same [expletive] sandwich it was 2 months ago.

Except for the massively upgraded pitching staff.

[sneakypower]

Kyle,

 

I'm curious - who do you feel came out ahead on the Royals - Rays swap? For the moment, forget what else KC might have gotten in return for those prospects. Who do you feel will get the best value in the trade?

 

Probably Rays. Six years of sweet pre-FA control on Myers vs. two years of Shields. Myers has some warts, but Shields has some too pitching outside of Tampa and that defense, plus he's a pitcher and all pitchers risky bets.

 

I don't think they'll get what they hope to get out of Wade Davis, either.

i have a hard time thinking of a much safer bet (for health) than a guy who throws breaking balls on only 15% of his pitches

[jersey cubs fan]

It'd feel better if we'd like spread out Baker and Feldman so that one came during the Winter Meetings or something.

 

FG's is doing a chat right now, and two of them listed the Cubs as a team who "impressed them the most" this offseason.

 

How has anything from the Cubs been impressive this offseason? Our 2014 team is the same [expletive] sandwich it was 2 months ago.

 

It's pretty impressive how much they have been willing and able to stick to the plan of not really making the team good anytime soon.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i have a hard time thinking of a much safer bet (for health) than a guy who throws breaking balls on only 15% of his pitches

 

Everyone who is not a pitcher.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I didn't realize that at this time last year, we hadn't even made the Marshall trade. It was later in the offseason than I thought.

[sneakypower]

i have a hard time thinking of a much safer bet (for health) than a guy who throws breaking balls on only 15% of his pitches

 

Everyone who is not a pitcher.

that's pretty lazy and largely unsupportable, talking about a guy who seemingly hasn't missed a start his entire career

 

yes, i'm sure the list of "everyone who is not a pitcher" that hasn't missed a game in 6+ years is very long

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fine.

 

Almost everyone who is not a pitcher.

[Guest]

ABTY says that we're talking to Oakland about Crisp.

[Cubswin11]

ABTY says that we're talking to Oakland about Crisp.

Wouldn't be an awful addition, I guess. He's had a few nice fWAR seasons in Oakland the last 3 years

Edited December 12, 2012 by Cubswin11

[SouthSideRyan]

It'd feel better if we'd like spread out Baker and Feldman so that one came during the Winter Meetings or something.

 

FG's is doing a chat right now, and two of them listed the Cubs as a team who "impressed them the most" this offseason.

 

How has anything from the Cubs been impressive this offseason? Our 2014 team is the same [expletive] sandwich it was 2 months ago.

Except for the massively upgraded pitching staff.

 

Yes, they've certainly done a great job massively upgrading the pitching for one season.

[abuck1220]

next season is going to be sooooooo boring.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

next season is going to be sooooooo boring.

 

I'll keep you entertained.

[Post Count Padder]

ABTY says that we're talking to Oakland about Crisp.

That's fine and all. Shouldn't cost much to acquire and could put up a 2-3 WAR season easily. I'm hoping if we do this deal it's expanded to include Barney going there and one of their many good young pitchers coming back this way.