The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Tryptamine]

Royals seem to be finding a few defenders out there today. Seems like there's a bit of a consensus that Myers isn't viewed as highly inside the industry as he is in the punditry.

 

I love that suddenly Odorizzi is this nothing prospect after this trade. He's some back of the rotation starter you can find anywhere. I also love that some people are convinced that Davis, who has never been any good as a starter, is going to be a solid rotation guy this year.

[abuck1220]

man, the ace-tocity of shields is certainly a divisive topic.

[XZero771679666304]

Garza did for one season what Shields has done for the last two, and Garza is coming off elbow injuries and not for the first time.

 

I wasn't and wouldn't argue their respective values now, with Garza down a year of team control and coming off injury. But Garza last year (in a similar position to Shields this year), I think their values would have been comparable. We don't know how Garza would have finished the season (and it's worth mentioning that Shields stank out loud in the first half last year, so with a solid second half Garza might have matched his totals), but given the way things played out and Garza's contract status, I'm not sure we could get much for him at this point.

 

Even if Garza sets the world on fire in the first half, I think a return for him would pale in comparison to what could have been fetched last offseason.

 

Given all that, I think this trade came about because of a unique confluence of Friedman's acumen and Moore's desperation (and apparent incompetence), so I don't think such a return would have been available last offseason or would be in the future.

[Little Slide Rooter]

As of now, Shields is a better asset. However, this time last season, Garza was 2 years younger and had two years under team control, as Shields has now. This being said, we'll likely never know the offers that we were receiving for Garza this time last year when he was seemingly confimed traded to a different team every other day.

 

I actually wonder if Shark+Wood could have enticed the Royals to give us a massive package. Not quite as good as the one the Rays got due to Shields track record and Davis' 2012, but something big. Shark may not have Shields' track record, but he's 3 years younger with 3 years of team control.

 

The funny thing is, after their rotation overhaul, Shields-Santana-Guthrie-Chen-Davis/Hochevar doesn't look any better than ours, though Santana and Davis are pretty big X-factors.

[Tryptamine]

As of now, Shields is a better asset. However, this time last season, Garza was 2 years younger and had two years under team control, as Shields has now. This being said, we'll likely never know the offers that we were receiving for Garza this time last year when he was seemingly confimed traded to a different team every other day.

 

I actually wonder if Shark+Wood could have enticed the Royals to give us a massive package. Not quite as good as the one the Rays got due to Shields track record and Davis' 2012, but something big. Shark may not have Shields' track record, but he's 3 years younger with 3 years of team control.

 

The funny thing is, after their rotation overhaul, Shields-Santana-Guthrie-Chen-Davis/Hochevar doesn't look any better than ours, though Santana and Davis are pretty big X-factors.

 

I'm not even sure their rotation is as good as ours. Guthrie is a back of the rotation pitcher who has never posted a FIP or xFIP below 4.18 in his career. Ervin Santana's only year where he's been borderline good is 2011 where his xFIP was still 4. Wade Davis has never been any good as a starter posted FIP/xFIPs in excess of 4.5 every year he's tried. The rotation is basically James Shields and a whole bunch of back of mediocrity.

[Guest]

Royals seem to be finding a few defenders out there today. Seems like there's a bit of a consensus that Myers isn't viewed as highly inside the industry as he is in the punditry.

 

I love that suddenly Odorizzi is this nothing prospect after this trade. He's some back of the rotation starter you can find anywhere. I also love that some people are convinced that Davis, who has never been any good as a starter, is going to be a solid rotation guy this year.

Odorizzi went from a 2/3 starter yesterday to a #4 starter today on Twitter. It's hilarious the hoops some are going through to defend Moore and the Royals.

[Guest]

I didn't realize that Shields has an option year. In that case it's really not as bad as the backlash would suggest. It's likely not to turn out well, but the Royals are a team that needs to do some of this MiLB to MLB talent conversion without waiting several years for the next wave to develop.

[davell]

Grilli back to Pirates, 2 year deal. Had hope the longer it drug out, he'd leave.

[Tryptamine]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I heard same thing @MartinoNYDN reported -- that #royals asked #mets for Jon Niese and Zack Wheeler for Myers, straight up.

 

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside.

[Clem Fandango]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I heard same thing @MartinoNYDN reported -- that #royals asked #mets for Jon Niese and Zack Wheeler for Myers, straight up.

 

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside.

 

So there's that deal that was reportedly turned down. I think they also asked for a Dickey for Myers swap that was rejected. Anderson for Myers was rejected. Lester for Myers was rejected, too, I think.

 

There must be something rotten about Myers that front offices aren't thrilled about.

[Sammys Boombox]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I heard same thing @MartinoNYDN reported -- that #royals asked #mets for Jon Niese and Zack Wheeler for Myers, straight up.

 

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside.

 

So there's that deal that was reportedly turned down. I think they also asked for a Dickey for Myers swap that was rejected. Anderson for Myers was rejected. Lester for Myers was rejected, too, I think.

 

There must be something rotten about Myers that front offices aren't thrilled about.

 

His K rate? Still, it seems the teams all value him less than the writers...

[SouthSideRyan]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I heard same thing @MartinoNYDN reported -- that #royals asked #mets for Jon Niese and Zack Wheeler for Myers, straight up.

 

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside.

 

So there's that deal that was reportedly turned down. I think they also asked for a Dickey for Myers swap that was rejected. Anderson for Myers was rejected. Lester for Myers was rejected, too, I think.

 

There must be something rotten about Myers that front offices aren't thrilled about.

 

Dickey for Myers seems like the worst of them all for the Royals, including the Tampa trade.

[Cubswin11]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I heard same thing @MartinoNYDN reported -- that #royals asked #mets for Jon Niese and Zack Wheeler for Myers, straight up.

 

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside.

 

So there's that deal that was reportedly turned down. I think they also asked for a Dickey for Myers swap that was rejected. Anderson for Myers was rejected. Lester for Myers was rejected, too, I think.

 

There must be something rotten about Myers that front offices aren't thrilled about.

 

Dickey for Myers seems like the worst of them all for the Royals, including the Tampa trade.

Agreed, why the hell would the Mets turn that down? Sandy Alderson is a bigger [expletive] idiot if he turned that down than Moore is for making Meyers available for such an average return.

[illiniguy]

So gms are all worked up about Wil because he doesn't hang out with his teammates. From what I've heard about several of the young royals, that's probably a good thing.

[Tryptamine]

So gms are all worked up about Wil because he doesn't hang out with his teammates. From what I've heard about several of the young royals, that's probably a good thing.

 

If that's true then GMs are a lot stupider then I'd ever believed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So gms are all worked up about Wil because he doesn't hang out with his teammates. From what I've heard about several of the young royals, that's probably a good thing.

 

I think they're more concerned with the near 25% minor league K rate and the hitter-friendly parks than they are his makeup.

 

I'm not saying he's not a great prospect, but I think the Minor League POTY label might have him a tad overrated.

 

Which doesn't make this a good trade, but it's worth noting.

[TruffleShuffle]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan

Final trade tally: James Shields, Wade Davis and PTBNL for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.

 

this is completely baffling.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I didn't realize that Shields has an option year. In that case it's really not as bad as the backlash would suggest. It's likely not to turn out well, but the Royals are a team that needs to do some of this MiLB to MLB talent conversion without waiting several years for the next wave to develop.

 

There's really not much else I like on the bullpen market. Mike Adams could complete our Coming Off Of Surgery bingo card with "neck."

 

Otherwise, I guess we'll get a guy who can compete with Beliveau to be the second lefty. Someone like Gorzelanny or JP Howell.

[illiniguy]

So gms are all worked up about Wil because he doesn't hang out with his teammates. From what I've heard about several of the young royals, that's probably a good thing.

 

If that's true then GMs are a lot stupider then I'd ever believed.

Agreed, on a side note I no longer am convinced Eric Hosmer is gonna be great. On natural talent I'd say yes, but now I'm not sure.

[Guest]

I didn't realize that Shields has an option year. In that case it's really not as bad as the backlash would suggest. It's likely not to turn out well, but the Royals are a team that needs to do some of this MiLB to MLB talent conversion without waiting several years for the next wave to develop.

 

There's really not much else I like on the bullpen market. Mike Adams could complete our Coming Off Of Surgery bingo card with "neck."

 

Otherwise, I guess we'll get a guy who can compete with Beliveau to be the second lefty. Someone like Gorzelanny or JP Howell.

 

Did SCS hijack your account?

[toonsterwu]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick

I heard same thing @MartinoNYDN reported -- that #royals asked #mets for Jon Niese and Zack Wheeler for Myers, straight up.

 

This is utterly baffling. The value of this package and the one they received are at very least even, yet they were only going to give up Myers. Niese is under control long term and a good #3 while Wheeler is an extremely good pitching prospect who may have legitimate #1 upside.

 

I don't know if it's baffling. This isn't a defense of the Royals trade (short of it, don't think it's that bad ... it's an understandable move, but if I did pick a winner, it'd be the Rays).

 

That said, as to a comparison of Niese/Wheeler versus the package they got ... I tend to think the package they got has markedly higher value, as it pertains to trade discussions, than Niese/Wheeler. The biggest factor is Shields being a proven major league front of the rotation starter. But there's also the fact that Wade Davis has reached the bigs, performed as a starter, and is still young. It's not hard to envision a pitching coach tinkering with him and having Wade show as a solid mid-rotation starter, and thus, not that far off from Niese.

 

In that respect, and only in that respect, I think it's quite understandable why there was a difference in value.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I didn't realize that Shields has an option year. In that case it's really not as bad as the backlash would suggest. It's likely not to turn out well, but the Royals are a team that needs to do some of this MiLB to MLB talent conversion without waiting several years for the next wave to develop.

 

There's really not much else I like on the bullpen market. Mike Adams could complete our Coming Off Of Surgery bingo card with "neck."

 

Otherwise, I guess we'll get a guy who can compete with Beliveau to be the second lefty. Someone like Gorzelanny or JP Howell.

 

Did SCS hijack your account?

 

WSR, I mean SCS would be more inclined to seel high on Russell, use Beliveau as the primary lefty, and invite Gorzelanny, Howell, and a handfull of others else to spring training to fill the 2nd lefty spot.

[crazycooter]

 

this is completely baffling.

 

I run a small garage in rural Georgia.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Besides the fact that this still doesn't make the Royals a postseason team -- or even particularly close, given their holes in numerous other places -- Shields's home/road splits would scare the crap out of me. From 2010-12, dude has been significantly better in pitching haven Tropicana Field than on the road. (Granted, many of his road starts would obviously be @ AL East competition in AL East ballparks, inflating his Away numbers.)

[Guest]

I renamed the thread.