Misc. Cubs offseason rumor discussion

[davell]

I'll be shocked if all 3 of Baez, Soler, and Almora are still with the Cubs organization entering 2015. In fact, I figure its more likely than not, only one of them will be.

[Guest]

I'll be shocked if all 3 of Baez, Soler, and Almora are still with the Cubs organization entering 2015. In fact, I figure its more likely than not, only one of them will be.

 

It'd be really fun if they all made it to the majors, but I'd have to agree.

[davell]

While I agree it needs its own thread, I think we're all sick of talking about it. Neither side is going to ever convince the other. It's probably the only thing we can agree on. As for the Cards, you're right, they weren't typically big overslotters. But Miller fell to them because of his demands and then they met them. They spent big on Martinez in IFA as well. They've certainly had a great player development system in place though. But it comes and goes in cycles for everyone.

[Guest]

Levine jumping on with the Cubs having interest in Bourn.

 

I like the idea of adding Bourn, although the idea of committing what I assume will be 4-5 years to a 30 year old who has probably 50+% of his value tied up in speed and defense is a bit worrisome(if not surprising that the FO would have interest). Bourn has been very healthy though, and if it were a 4 year deal 33 isn't exactly the end of his career, and it's a far cry from the 7 year Crawford commitment. If they're doing that then they need to also really look to add another good SP and bat to give the team at least a fighter's chance at the outset of the contract.

[davell]

If you added Bourn, McCarthy, Reynolds, and a relatively solid bullpen arm or two, it'd give 2013 some interesting possibilities. With Bourn being the only longterm commitment.

[KaiserCesar]

It'd be nice to add enough talent to get into the 'variance range' of competing for a playoff spot in 2013. Further additions could make the team a more legitimate contender in 2014 with the potential for reloading with prospects in late 2014 or 2015. In the likely event that the Cubs are out of contention by midseason this year, some of the shorter-term assets like Reynolds or Bourn could be flipped for prospects that would be a part of the reloading. Any of possible long-term targets like McCarthy that would be part of the 2014-15 core wouldn't be dealt, of course.

 

Its a bit of wishful thinking on my part, but I hope this is the plan and that it works out.

[Guest]

Isn't Bourn the absolute top end of what we could hope for from Szczur at this point? Speed, OBP & defense are the games for both guys. Each provides basically doubles power.

 

I'm not suggesting you don't go after Bourn because of Szczur. Szczur still hasn't convinced anyone that he can be nearly as elite at each of those three strengths as Bourn. I'd say you sign Bourn, hope Szczur develops into a clone and then trade Bourn if/when he's ready.

[SABR Gamer]

It'd be nice to add enough talent to get into the 'variance range' of competing for a playoff spot in 2013. Further additions could make the team a more legitimate contender in 2014 with the potential for reloading with prospects in late 2014 or 2015. In the likely event that the Cubs are out of contention by midseason this year, some of the shorter-term assets like Reynolds or Bourn could be flipped for prospects that would be a part of the reloading. Any of possible long-term targets like McCarthy that would be part of the 2014-15 core wouldn't be dealt, of course.

 

Its a bit of wishful thinking on my part, but I hope this is the plan and that it works out.

 

Bourn would not be one of the trade chips. If they sign him, he's likely a long term asset.

[rawaction]

I'll be shocked if all 3 of Baez, Soler, and Almora are still with the Cubs organization entering 2015. In fact, I figure its more likely than not, only one of them will be.

 

I can see the argument for all 3 NOT being with the organization. But Soler and Almora are the two biggest acquisitions of this front office. Their big international signing and first draft pick. I think those guys were picked with the intention of being Cubs for a long time. Baez, I could see being gone, but that's only 2 seasons away and he's likely to be the first to get a look in the majors. And at this point if Baez isn't traded this offseason, he's either going to be one of the top prospects in baseball or would have taken a hit to his value. Either way, it's hard to imagine a rebuilding team to trade a top prospect or a guy they won't get full value for.

[davell]

Kaplan says we're still looking for SP and a RF, heading to Nashville. 3B tough to fill. DeJesus moving to CF I guess. Bat makes more sense there anyway and if hes sealt midseason, Jackson gets another audition, I suppose.

[rawaction]

Kaplan says we're still looking for SP and a RF, heading to Nashville. 3B tough to fill. DeJesus moving to CF I guess. Bat makes more sense there anyway and if hes sealt midseason, Jackson gets another audition, I suppose.

Maybe DeJesus to LF and Soriano gone.

[SouthSideRyan]

With our payroll situation, I wouldn't mind Hamilton, under certain circumstances. I'd go 3/90, with our situation. He'd bring people to the ballpark and if he had a typical season for him, he'd be extremely attractive to teams in year 2 and 3 of the deal, especially if we ate some cash. No clue what kind of WAR to prospect ratio, plus cash sent over, would equate out. But, if you kept him for a year, got 5-6 WAR out of him, traded him and half the remaining cash for 2-3 top 50ish types, is it worth the investment? I'm asking, because rolling those dice is fine, but I wouldn't do it for long, with the distractions around Wrigley. Plus, we could then put the saved money back to use as well.

 

As I said earlier, I'd go 2-3 years on Hamilton. Or even 2-3 years with a couple of club options. But I absolutely would not go beyond 3 guaranteed under any circumstances.

 

Then you're not serious about signing him.

[Rob]

With our payroll situation, I wouldn't mind Hamilton, under certain circumstances. I'd go 3/90, with our situation. He'd bring people to the ballpark and if he had a typical season for him, he'd be extremely attractive to teams in year 2 and 3 of the deal, especially if we ate some cash. No clue what kind of WAR to prospect ratio, plus cash sent over, would equate out. But, if you kept him for a year, got 5-6 WAR out of him, traded him and half the remaining cash for 2-3 top 50ish types, is it worth the investment? I'm asking, because rolling those dice is fine, but I wouldn't do it for long, with the distractions around Wrigley. Plus, we could then put the saved money back to use as well.

 

As I said earlier, I'd go 2-3 years on Hamilton. Or even 2-3 years with a couple of club options. But I absolutely would not go beyond 3 guaranteed under any circumstances.

 

Then you're not serious about signing him.

 

Unless the money/years are just right, we shouldn't be.

 

For most of his career, he's been a 4-5 fWAR guy in a full, healthy season. The one truly terrific year was boosted by a crazy .390 BABIP. He'll be 32 next year, is chronically unhealthy, and has plenty of other issues.

 

If we were projected for around 85 wins next year, sure... you take that risk to put you over the top. But he's not the sort to build around.

[XZero771679666304]

With our payroll situation, I wouldn't mind Hamilton, under certain circumstances. I'd go 3/90, with our situation. He'd bring people to the ballpark and if he had a typical season for him, he'd be extremely attractive to teams in year 2 and 3 of the deal, especially if we ate some cash. No clue what kind of WAR to prospect ratio, plus cash sent over, would equate out. But, if you kept him for a year, got 5-6 WAR out of him, traded him and half the remaining cash for 2-3 top 50ish types, is it worth the investment? I'm asking, because rolling those dice is fine, but I wouldn't do it for long, with the distractions around Wrigley. Plus, we could then put the saved money back to use as well.

 

As I said earlier, I'd go 2-3 years on Hamilton. Or even 2-3 years with a couple of club options. But I absolutely would not go beyond 3 guaranteed under any circumstances.

 

Then you're not serious about signing him.

 

Unless the money/years are just right, we shouldn't be.

 

For most of his career, he's been a 4-5 fWAR guy in a full, healthy season. The one truly terrific year was boosted by a crazy .390 BABIP. He'll be 32 next year, is chronically unhealthy, and has plenty of other issues.

 

If we were projected for around 85 wins next year, sure... you take that risk to put you over the top. But he's not the sort to build around.

 

Pretty much. There is much debate about accepting risk on free agents, but Josh Hamilton is the absolute poster child for what would be considered a "high risk" signing.

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

Levine jumping on with the Cubs having interest in Bourn.

 

I like the idea of adding Bourn, although the idea of committing what I assume will be 4-5 years to a 30 year old who has probably 50+% of his value tied up in speed and defense is a bit worrisome(if not surprising that the FO would have interest). Bourn has been very healthy though, and if it were a 4 year deal 33 isn't exactly the end of his career, and it's a far cry from the 7 year Crawford commitment. If they're doing that then they need to also really look to add another good SP and bat to give the team at least a fighter's chance at the outset of the contract.

I may be wrong, but I could have sworn I read an article a year or two ago that said speed players actually age better (relative to other types of players) despite the common belief that the opposite would be true.

[Guest]

I'd be interested in seeing what that had to say. I wonder if they have a greater standard deviation to go with that better age curve.

[Neuby]

If the Cubs do indeed ink Bourn, I really hope they flip DeJesus.

[rawaction]

Bourn has a lot of value tied into his speed, but not as much as say a Juan Pierre. He increased his power output by a decent bit last year, and I think that may go up in Wrigley. He also walks quite a bit and his BABIP isn't some astronomical unsustainable number. And he's only 30. His legs shouldn't be going anywhere just yet.

[Geech]

I may be wrong, but I could have sworn I read an article a year or two ago that said speed players actually age better (relative to other types of players) despite the common belief that the opposite would be true.

 

I believe I remember this as well. Was it on fangraphs?

 

I think I found it, but it's not as in-depth as I had hoped:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/does_speed_age_better/

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

I may be wrong, but I could have sworn I read an article a year or two ago that said speed players actually age better (relative to other types of players) despite the common belief that the opposite would be true.

 

I believe I remember this as well. Was it on fangraphs?

 

I think I found it, but it's not as in-depth as I had hoped:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/does_speed_age_better/

That may have been it. I feel like it was from fangraphs, though. I just did some quick searches on there and all I am finding are brief mentions in articles about the carl crawford signing saying "he has a skillset that ages very well."

[Gilby]

If I'm not mistaken, most of Crawford's recent problems have been because of arm injuries. He may have had a hamstring injury in 2011, but I don't think we should automatically make Crawford comparisons.

[questionmarkgrace]

Bourns advanced metrics are much more impressive than his game is to the naked eye. No hes not worth a $100 mil as boras floated earlier this year. That said hed be a good addition and fills a legitimate hole one the team.

 

I know others are more interested in rebuilding but spending money at a position where we dont have any prospects that are close or all that talented is in theospeak asset building. Its not like we can out spend in the draft or with ifa's anymore. So why not put a decent team on the field and continue to build the farm? We wouldnt have experienced such variation year to year had hendry and company actually drafted and signed players that could do more than win a homerun contest or throw hard.

[RammyFanny]

ABTY alluded to there being some conversation with SD involving Barney, possibly Marmol and/or other pieces for something involving Jedd Gyorko.

[davell]

I want Casey Kelly from them somehow.

[Clem Fandango]

ABTY alluded to there being some conversation with SD involving Barney, possibly Marmol and/or other pieces for something involving Jedd Gyorko.

 

=P~