BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[Guest]

How does Vitters drop to 25?

I don't know, he has a higher ceiling than all of the position players in front of him that aren't in the top 10 (except maybe Lake if he can stick at SS) and he's had more success while age appropriate/young at every level in minors than everyone in front of him (except maybe Villanueva).

 

Lake won't stick at SS but still has a higher ceiling.

[Guest]

How does Torreyes now make the top 31? I still like him more than any other 2B prospect in the organization.

 

Yeah, I feel like Torreyes, Watkins and Rondon were the most surprising omissions.

[Cubswin11]

How does Torreyes now make the top 31? I still like him more than any other 2B prospect in the organization.

 

Yeah, I feel like Torreyes, Watkins and Rondon were the most surprising omissions.

Watkins was 19

[davell]

I can't see why Torreyes isn't considered on the same level as a Cory Spangenberg.

[sneakypower]

How does Vitters drop to 25?

i have a theory...

[Guest]

I can't see why Torreyes isn't considered on the same level as a Cory Spangenberg.

 

Cory Spangenberg was a) drafted in the first round and b) isn't shorter than me.

[craig]

..Cory Spangenberg was a) drafted in the first round and b) isn't shorter than me.

 

Heh heh. I like Torreyes too, but he should hit over .711-OPS before we can fuss much. One-toolers need to hit first before expecting much buzz.

 

On Vitters, "Some scouts inside and outside organization feel comfortable projecting a .275/20 HR hitter. Brings little intensity to ballpark. Destroys left handers .331/.377/.625. Fielding is only adequate at best."

[Rob]

Mayo has Baez 16, Almora 39, and Soler 42.

[Cubswin11]

..Cory Spangenberg was a) drafted in the first round and b) isn't shorter than me.

 

Heh heh. I like Torreyes too, but he should hit over .711-OPS before we can fuss much. One-toolers need to hit first before expecting much buzz.

 

On Vitters, "Some scouts inside and outside organization feel comfortable projecting a .275/20 HR hitter. Brings little intensity to ballpark. Destroys left handers .331/.377/.625. Fielding is only adequate at best."

Oh, okay then, it all makes sense and is justifiable now.........

[davell]

..Cory Spangenberg was a) drafted in the first round and b) isn't shorter than me.

 

Heh heh. I like Torreyes too, but he should hit over .711-OPS before we can fuss much. One-toolers need to hit first before expecting much buzz.

 

On Vitters, "Some scouts inside and outside organization feel comfortable projecting a .275/20 HR hitter. Brings little intensity to ballpark. Destroys left handers .331/.377/.625. Fielding is only adequate at best."

19 in High A all season with a .268 babip and 6% K rate.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think Vitters at 25 after having a very solid season as one of the youngest players in AAA is pretty much the last straw for me caring about what BA thinks. They are wrong a ton.

[Rob]

I think Vitters at 25 after having a very solid season as one of the youngest players in AAA is pretty much the last straw for me caring about what BA thinks. They are wrong a ton.

 

Yeah, there's no real way to justify that ranking. I'm thinking Callis is paying way too much attention to that cup of coffee.

 

I'm much more comfortable with trusting NSBB's top 30 list than I am BA at this point.

[Tryptamine]

..Cory Spangenberg was a) drafted in the first round and b) isn't shorter than me.

 

Heh heh. I like Torreyes too, but he should hit over .711-OPS before we can fuss much. One-toolers need to hit first before expecting much buzz.

 

On Vitters, "Some scouts inside and outside organization feel comfortable projecting a .275/20 HR hitter. Brings little intensity to ballpark. Destroys left handers .331/.377/.625. Fielding is only adequate at best."

 

Does an .811 OPS after the ASB, when he wasn't getting babip screwed, along with above average defense at 2B do anything for you? How about increasing his walk rate from 4.8% in 2011 to 7.0% in 2012? 32BB/29K? Oh yeah, he did all this while being 19 in A+ which is a notorious pitcher's league.

[toonsterwu]

Loosen is really the only truly surprising inclusion. I forgot Lendy Castillo would qualify because BA ignores service time.

 

You know, in general, I'm not that bothered with Loosen on the back end of a top 30 list. Wasn't the first thing to cross my mind, that's for sure, but solid 3-pitch mix. My issue, if anything, is why Loosen ahead of Struck by what seems like a decent amount? I have a hard time buying Loosen as having a significantly higher ceiling (fastball is probably better overall, secondary maybe a borderline tick better) than Struck. I just don't see why Loosen ahead of Struck.

 

I'm actually more surprised that Golden got a mention at 31st.

[toonsterwu]

How does Vitters drop to 25?

I don't know, he has a higher ceiling than all of the position players in front of him that aren't in the top 10 (except maybe Lake if he can stick at SS) and he's had more success while age appropriate/young at every level in minors than everyone in front of him (except maybe Villanueva).

 

Wait ... what? I'm not so sure that Vitters ceiling is necessarily higher than Marco Hernandez or Gioskar Amaya overall. Even if we are just focusing on offensive ceiling ... I'm not sure his ceiling is higher. Again, the keyword is ceiling - by no means am I suggesting that Marco or Gioskar are as developed as Josh, but at a certain point, the expectations for power development have to materialize somewhat to continue giving him the power expectations of before. I mean, on ceiling alone, think about the offensive expectations/hope for Gioskar right now - they aren't that much off from positive expectations for Vitters.

 

Lake's ceiling is far higher than Vitters overall. On just ceiling, one can still make an argument, IMO, that Lake's ceiling is one of the highest in the system. Still, like Vitters, at a certain point, ceiling doesn't mean squat.

[toonsterwu]

How does Torreyes now make the top 31? I still like him more than any other 2B prospect in the organization.

 

I think it's a bit over-kill, as I'd still have him top 25, but think about how people rank, particularly the folks at BA. Ceiling is a factor. Projection is a factor. Tools are a factor. Performance is a factor. You put all those things together, particularly the fact that he struggled this year, plus the fact that he is at 2nd, and it's not like there's a dominant case for him to be THAT high based off this past season. (again, still think he should be in the top 30) For all the talk about BABIP, there were reports of bad swings doing his cold streak. Now, as craig noted, he heard that Torreyes possibly had an injury (although I would assume that BA would've heard about the injury aspect ... but you never know).

[toonsterwu]

I can't see why Torreyes isn't considered on the same level as a Cory Spangenberg.

 

I have never been a fan of Spangenberg (there was a debate on Spangenberg vs. Szczur last year on Sickels, and I was still stunned that people took Spangenberg over Szczur), and I was not a fan of the over-sell on Spagenberg by McLeod. I don't think they would've been hurt by acknowledging that it was a signability pick. I'd probably take Torreyes over Spagenberg myself, although I'm not certain either guy is a starter. But Raisin's probably on point here with why Spangenberg is ahead - pedigree and better size are factors, and factor in with what craig notes - Torreyes down year simply makes it hard to push for him.

 

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if Torreyes ends up being more useful than Spangenberg. It's actually nothing against his ability - guys like that can find a role. Just think he's been over-hyped and over-sold (although I thought the entire Padres sytem was over-hyped last year ... this year, I tend to think the ratings are a bit better ... ).

[toonsterwu]

I think Vitters at 25 after having a very solid season as one of the youngest players in AAA is pretty much the last straw for me caring about what BA thinks. They are wrong a ton.

 

Yeah, there's no real way to justify that ranking. I'm thinking Callis is paying way too much attention to that cup of coffee.

 

I'm much more comfortable with trusting NSBB's top 30 list than I am BA at this point.

 

Take a step back for a moment. I think Vitters should be a few notches higher, inside the top 20 ... but ...

 

The comments seem to suggest that .275/20 HR is perhaps on the high end of projections for him (may be reading too much into a snippet, but it sounds that way). If that's the high end ... how much value is that? A corner IF (and let's face it, as much as I've defended his glovework at 3rd as passable if the bat played, he really shouldn't be there in an ideal situation) without high average ability and without plus power is ... not that useful, particularly if he has to go to first. If that's the high end, and he ends up being consistently less than that ... then ... 25 might be high. Again, I'm not saying I buy the projections, but if that's what they are hearing on the high end, I can understand the ranking.

 

I think they were a bit harsh on some guys (Vitters/Torreyes come to mind) and a bit generous on some (SNTS/pedigree on Blackburn still has me scratching my head at that high a spot ... surprised on some of the back end guys ... actually fairly surprised that Hatley got a mention, along with Golden at 31, and of course, Loux/Loosen/Castillo are all guys where I could probably find other guys and make competitive arguments that they could be swapped out ... think they went high on pen arms) ... but I don't know if Vitters at 25 is something that really makes me aghast at their rankings. I think he should be higher, but ceiling only counts for so much at a certain point, and if the expectations they are hearing aren't that great ... well, I can understand it somewhat.

 

Now, getting back to Vitters, the question is, do any of us expect him to be consistently more than a .275ish average and 20 HR's guy if all went well? If so, then there's a clear case for him to be higher. The power seems a tick higher than I am really expecting as a positive case right now. Average ... I could see him a tick higher perhaps.

[davell]

Torreyes went .264/.326/.385, with a .268 babip, 6.1% K rate, and 34 extra base hits in 474 plate appearances at 19 in a pitching friendly league. Spangenberg went .271/.324/.352, with a .327 babip, 16.4% K rate, and 21 extra base hits in 426 plate appearances at 21, in a hitter friendly league, thats also High A ball. Yet he's 7th in a Pads system that BA will have ranked higher than ours, and is devoid of elite talent.

[craig]

...Does an .811 OPS after the ASB, when he wasn't getting babip screwed, along with above average defense at 2B do anything for you? How about increasing his walk rate from 4.8% in 2011 to 7.0% in 2012? 32BB/29K? Oh yeah, he did all this while being 19 in A+ which is a notorious pitcher's league.

 

Yes, very much, this is why I had him 15th or so on my list, ahead of Amaya, Hernandez, Watkins, or Alcantara.

 

My point was simply that I understand why other scouts/services wouldn't rank him that high, and it's a common theme. When a guy is a touted tools guy, he'll get ranked high before the production is there. But when you're strictly a one-tool guy, the production usually needs to precede the status.

 

If Torreyes hits really well, the way we think he might, then his ranking will rise accordingly. It's just sort of a chicken-egg, which comes first thing.

 

I'm calling Torreyes a "one-tool" guy, but don't read that wrong. He's not inadequate in any of the areas, IMO. But the only one where he stands out is contact. His defense grades as fine, (but he's not toolsy like Alcantara or Baez), he runs fine (probably pretty average for a 2B), his walks improved from horrible to average, (but he's not Szczur or Brett Jackson), his arm is OK, and his power is probably adequate ( neither his present nor projected power is an asset, but he hit some HR's and got some doubles, so he's not a Theriot).

 

Really the contact gift is the one and only **plus** tool that he's got. Fortunately for him, that's the most important tool to be special at. If he's extraordinary with that, while being nothing-special-but-nothing-problematic in the other areas, he's got a chance to be a *very* productive player.

[toonsterwu]

Torreyes went .264/.326/.385, with a .268 babip, 6.1% K rate, and 34 extra base hits in 474 plate appearances at 19 in a pitching friendly league. Spangenberg went .271/.324/.352, with a .327 babip, 16.4% K rate, and 21 extra base hits in 426 plate appearances at 21, in a hitter friendly league, thats also High A ball. Yet he's 7th in a Pads system that BA will have ranked higher than ours, and is devoid of elite talent.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you, but for the same reason Paul Blackburn got ranked high, I think that's the same reason that Spangenberg will be ahead of Torreyes for many lists - the simple fact that he's perceived to have better pedigree (and maybe slightly better potential ... still seems to be some occasional whisper of him developing power).

 

You really should add in that, from what I gather, Torreyes is probably the better defender at 2nd.

 

Actually, this might be a fun topic to throw out on Sickels, Torreyes vs. Spangenberg (to get non-Cubs fans viewpoints), but I'm just not enthused to go there and throw it up.

[Brian]

Mayo has Baez 16, Almora 39, and Soler 42.

 

1,000 retweets of this later, I'm ready to drop Baez from twitter.

[Cubswin11]

I think Vitters at 25 after having a very solid season as one of the youngest players in AAA is pretty much the last straw for me caring about what BA thinks. They are wrong a ton.

 

Yeah, there's no real way to justify that ranking. I'm thinking Callis is paying way too much attention to that cup of coffee.

 

I'm much more comfortable with trusting NSBB's top 30 list than I am BA at this point.

 

Take a step back for a moment. I think Vitters should be a few notches higher, inside the top 20 ... but ...

 

The comments seem to suggest that .275/20 HR is perhaps on the high end of projections for him (may be reading too much into a snippet, but it sounds that way). If that's the high end ... how much value is that? A corner IF (and let's face it, as much as I've defended his glovework at 3rd as passable if the bat played, he really shouldn't be there in an ideal situation) without high average ability and without plus power is ... not that useful, particularly if he has to go to first. If that's the high end, and he ends up being consistently less than that ... then ... 25 might be high. Again, I'm not saying I buy the projections, but if that's what they are hearing on the high end, I can understand the ranking.

 

I think they were a bit harsh on some guys (Vitters/Torreyes come to mind) and a bit generous on some (SNTS/pedigree on Blackburn still has me scratching my head at that high a spot ... surprised on some of the back end guys ... actually fairly surprised that Hatley got a mention, along with Golden at 31, and of course, Loux/Loosen/Castillo are all guys where I could probably find other guys and make competitive arguments that they could be swapped out ... think they went high on pen arms) ... but I don't know if Vitters at 25 is something that really makes me aghast at their rankings. I think he should be higher, but ceiling only counts for so much at a certain point, and if the expectations they are hearing aren't that great ... well, I can understand it somewhat.

 

Now, getting back to Vitters, the question is, do any of us expect him to be consistently more than a .275ish average and 20 HR's guy if all went well? If so, then there's a clear case for him to be higher. The power seems a tick higher than I am really expecting as a positive case right now. Average ... I could see him a tick higher perhaps.

.275ish would have been good for 10th in all of MLB last year for 3B that qualified, 20HR would have tied him for 9th in MLB. If scouts think he's capable of that, after the AAA season he had, he should be much higher. .275ish with 20ish HR would make for a very valuable 3B even with below average defense as most of the league is struggling to find even replacement level production at 3B. So yes he should be higher.

[toonsterwu]

Well, the way that snippet read to me was that the .275/20 HR projection was a bit on the high end. If that is the peak (and again, I may be reading too much into that snippet), then you are looking at a peak of a guy who, barring a lot of other things swinging his way, is roughly what, a 1.5-2.5 WAR guy (just eyeballing comparisons over the last few years right now) when you factor in his likely below average defense. If that's on the high end of expectations for what BA is hearing, then I can understand why they docked him a bit. I think he should be a tick higher (had him in the 16-20 range myself), but if their high end expectation is a fringe 3rd base starter who might have to move to first, then ... I'm not aghast at 25.

 

As a side note, in the past, Callis had very good sources within the Cubs organization. I believe he was the first one to note how high the Cubs were on Logan Watkins. Does anyone know if he still has that sort of insight?

 

* Fully realize that eyeballing comps doesn't really work that well, since .275/20 HR and below average defense is a fairly broad outline. Since I have a few moments, the guys I'm looking at are (from 07) Blake, Kouzmanoff, Wigginton,Mora, and Beltre, (from 08) Blake, (from 2011) Chipper (but really, that walk rate would be far too high to expect for Vitters), Encarnacion, and from 2012, ARod (BB rate would seem higher than expected for Vitters) and Chris Johnson.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well, the way that snippet read to me was that the .275/20 HR projection was a bit on the high end. If that is the peak (and again, I may be reading too much into that snippet), then you are looking at a peak of a guy who, barring a lot of other things swinging his way, is roughly what, a 1.5-2.5 WAR guy (just eyeballing comparisons over the last few years right now) when you factor in his likely below average defense.

 

But if you are predicting 1.5-2.5 WAR from a guy, ever, let alone only the peak season, isn't it nearly impossible to suggest there are 24 guys better in the system?