BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[KingCubsFan]

In case people aren't aware of it, Sickels is gearing up to do his prospect list for us. He has his long list out, and is looking for suggestions on adjustments (I was mildly surprised by some names that made it onto the initial list - in the comments section, he's put an updated list out, trimming 6 ... a couple surprising trims, IMO).

 

Keep in mind that after the top few, he's always noted that the rest of the list is a jumble in some respects, and sometimes he prefers to talk about certain guys for certain reasons (last year, Jay Jackson made it ahead of Alberto Cabrera, as he was adamantly against Cabrera and thought Jay was a nice "tale" to tell because he was so hyped in 08/09 ... this year, sounds like Dunston's name (legacy) and Shoulders name (coolness) will make it on)).

Rashad Crawford was an interesting add. I know next to nothing about him.

[toonsterwu]

Well, looks like Sickels has his final list of Cubs prospects. It's a solid list. Some disagreements on the tail end, but that always occurs.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/11/28/3702172/chicago-cubs-preliminary-prospect-list#comments

 

Chicago Cubs 43 players

 

Arismendy Alcantara SS

Albert Almora OF

Gioskar Amaya 2B

Jose Arias RHP

Javier Baez SS

Paul Blackburn RHP

Stephen Bruno INF

Alberto Cabrera RHP

Jeimer Candelario 3B

Marcelo Carreno RHP

Jaye Chapman RHP

Shawon Dunston OF

Jae-Hoon Ha OF

Kyle Hendricks RHP

Marco Hernandez SS

Brett Jackson OF

Pierce Johnson RHP

Junior Lake INF

Barret Loux RHP

Dillon Maples RHP

Justin Marra C

Trey Martin OF

Ryan McNeil RHP

Trey McNutt RHP

Juan Paniagua RHP

Starling Peralta RHP

Brooks Raley LHP

Jose Rosario RHP

Tim Saunders INF

Tayler Scott RHP

Jorge Soler OF

Nick Struck RHP

Matt Szczur OF

Ronald Torreyes 2B

Duane Underwood RHP

Christian Villanueva 3B

Josh Vitters 3B

Arodys Vizcaino RHP

Dan Vogelbach 1B

Logan Watkins 2B

Ben Wells RHP

Robert Whitenack RHP

Tony Zych RHP

[craig]

Hi, guys, greetings! I haven't been around much, and am again way behind here. But I thought the Maples stuff was interesting.

 

Okay, this is going to be a bit harsh ... but what the heck? Dillon Maples as the 4th prospect in the system? ....... I get upside. I can buy the top 10 inclusion in Parks list. But 4th? The explanation reads like someone who read a scouting report .... from his draft year).

 

This exchange was in the comments - and I was very surprised at the assessment of Maples' ceiling

..Marc Hulet says: Maples has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the league and people I spoke to felt he would be ready to go for spring training 2013 so I’m excited to see what he can do. His ranking is based on pure potential and upside.

 

I've heard that too, that his his breaking ball is exceptional and he's really fast. I agree with Hulet that he's easily got the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers, Paniagua included. But as Hulet said, it's just pure potential at present.

 

As analogy, the Cubs paid Paniagua a serious bonus based on scouting and scouting alone. Other than struggling in a bad of Panamanian league last winter, Paniagua hadn't pitched in games in years, and he wasn't any good when he did. But his scouting stuff was plenty good. And now, 3.2 minor league innings, I personally think it's entirely appropriate to include him in a top-10 list. (6th on mine). Neither the bonus nor that valuation is based on his 3.2 innings; it's based on scouting and the 3.2 innings and whatever instrux stuff. I think it's entirely fair to rank a guy based on scouting and potential.

 

While Hulett didn't rank Paniagua as high as I will, I think it's entirely legit for him to rank Maples very high, based on pure scouting and potential. Talent-wise, Maples's stuff is better than anybody we've had in the system since Archer, and his talent relative to his position is much more special than Vitters or Szczur or Villanueva or Hernandez. That he hasn't pitched much, does not change the scouting look of his stuff.

 

I think guys like Hulett don't want to miss on prospects who might become special.

 

I've got Maples 8th, because I'm a believer in control and the early results aren't favorable. I like his pure stuff better than for Paniagua, Johnson, or Underwood, but I've got him behind all three because he seems least likely to gain control. Still, if he's healthy and gets some coaching, pitchers can sometimes make adjustments. More common for a high-walk pitcher to drastically lower his walk-rate than for a hitter to drastically reduce his K-rate, even if still pretty improbable.

 

I do agree with the argument about inconsistency on Hulett's part: if Maples is in based on scouting/potential, and Underwood, then Paniagua should make it too. All three are in my top 8.

[Vanilla Ice]

Hi, guys, greetings! I haven't been around much, and am again way behind here. But I thought the Maples stuff was interesting.

 

Okay, this is going to be a bit harsh ... but what the heck? Dillon Maples as the 4th prospect in the system? ....... I get upside. I can buy the top 10 inclusion in Parks list. But 4th? The explanation reads like someone who read a scouting report .... from his draft year).

 

This exchange was in the comments - and I was very surprised at the assessment of Maples' ceiling

..Marc Hulet says: Maples has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the league and people I spoke to felt he would be ready to go for spring training 2013 so I’m excited to see what he can do. His ranking is based on pure potential and upside.

 

I've heard that too, that his his breaking ball is exceptional and he's really fast. I agree with Hulet that he's easily got the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers, Paniagua included. But as Hulet said, it's just pure potential at present.

 

As analogy, the Cubs paid Paniagua a serious bonus based on scouting and scouting alone. Other than struggling in a bad of Panamanian league last winter, Paniagua hadn't pitched in games in years, and he wasn't any good when he did. But his scouting stuff was plenty good. And now, 3.2 minor league innings, I personally think it's entirely appropriate to include him in a top-10 list. (6th on mine). Neither the bonus nor that valuation is based on his 3.2 innings; it's based on scouting and the 3.2 innings and whatever instrux stuff. I think it's entirely fair to rank a guy based on scouting and potential.

 

While Hulett didn't rank Paniagua as high as I will, I think it's entirely legit for him to rank Maples very high, based on pure scouting and potential. Talent-wise, Maples's stuff is better than anybody we've had in the system since Archer, and his talent relative to his position is much more special than Vitters or Szczur or Villanueva or Hernandez. That he hasn't pitched much, does not change the scouting look of his stuff.

 

I think guys like Hulett don't want to miss on prospects who might become special.

 

I've got Maples 8th, because I'm a believer in control and the early results aren't favorable. I like his pure stuff better than for Paniagua, Johnson, or Underwood, but I've got him behind all three because he seems least likely to gain control. Still, if he's healthy and gets some coaching, pitchers can sometimes make adjustments. More common for a high-walk pitcher to drastically lower his walk-rate than for a hitter to drastically reduce his K-rate, even if still pretty improbable.

 

I do agree with the argument about inconsistency on Hulett's part: if Maples is in based on scouting/potential, and Underwood, then Paniagua should make it too. All three are in my top 8.

 

So if I am reading this right, you have Johnson, Paniagua, and Underwood all in your top 7? Interesting. Why them over Vogelbach or BJax? Do you think the pitchers upsides are that much greater than Vogelbach and BJax? Or Candelario?

 

(I'm assuming you have the same top 4 as what seems to be the consensus)

[davell]

Sickels mentioned in his comments that Brett is a B- for him and Vogelbach is a very strong B and seems like he wants to go B+ on him.

[craig]

...

I've got Maples 8th, because I'm a believer in control and the early results aren't favorable. I like his pure stuff better than for Paniagua, Johnson, or Underwood, but I've got him behind all three because he seems least likely to gain control. Still, if he's healthy and gets some coaching, pitchers can sometimes make adjustments. More common for a high-walk pitcher to drastically lower his walk-rate than for a hitter to drastically reduce his K-rate, even if still pretty improbable.

 

I do agree with the argument about inconsistency on Hulett's part: if Maples is in based on scouting/potential, and Underwood, then Paniagua should make it too. All three are in my top 8.

 

So if I am reading this right, you have Johnson, Paniagua, and Underwood all in your top 7? Interesting. Why them over Vogelbach or BJax? Do you think the pitchers upsides are that much greater than Vogelbach and BJax? Or Candelario?

 

(I'm assuming you have the same top 4 as what seems to be the consensus)

 

ooops, I got my numbers wrong. I Have Maples at #9, behind Vizcaino/Paniagua/Johnson/Underwood. I've got Vogelbach as well as the regular big-3 ahead of Maples. I haven't decided in what order the big three, Vizcaino 4, then Vogelbach, then the four other pitchers at 6-7-8-9.

 

Yes, I do have all four of those short-season new pitchers all ahead of Jackson. His problem contacting the ball has been so extreme, and so persistent through years of college and pro, that I don't think it's realistic to think he's going to "figure it out". He's got a chance to hang around in some role, but I don't think he's got much chance to actually be very good. I think each of Paniagua/Pierce/Underwood/Maples has a chance to become very good. Who can guess which if any will actually do so. But it's much easier for a pitcher to correct a major problem than for a hitter. And easier to dream that a guy will correct something when it's been a problem for 11 innings than for years and years. Last, it sounds stupid but I use something of a simplistic gut reading: which prospect would I more regret losing? And at this point, if we traded Jackson I'd mind less than if Maples got traded or if Johnson or Paniagua had a career-ending injury.

[davell]

Sickels left a teaser, that's pretty glowing, on our system. He has us with a B+, that could move to an A-, 2 B's, 5 B-'s, and 10 C+'s. This is without doing anyone from A through C, H, or M yet. Those grades basically don't include Alcantara, Amaya, Baez, Almora, Hernandez, Candelario, Maples, and Blackburn. Hell, doesn't include Cabrera, Carreno, Bruno, Ha, Hendricks, or Martin either, who could all wind up as C+'s possibly.

[davell]

Another teaser from Sickels, with possibility of some movement in the B- and C+ area. One Grade A, 2 B+, 1 B, 9 B-, and 16 C+.

[Cubswin11]

Another teaser from Sickels, with possibility of some movement in the B- and C+ area. One Grade A, 2 B+, 1 B, 9 B-, and 16 C+.

My guess would be Baez is the A, Soler/Almora B+, Vizcaino the B, then Paniagua/Underwood/Johnson/Szczur/Candelario/Maples/Vogelbach/Villanueva/1 of Amaya/Alacantra are the B-'s.

[davell]

No, Vogelbach is definitelt the B, he was thinking of moving him to a B+ actually. His first teaser had 2 B's, my guess is he docked Vizcaino for the TJS, to be safe.

[CubsWin]

Here is the complete Sickels Cubs Top 20 list.

1) Javier Baez, SS, Grade A: Borderline A-. Has some rough edges with the strike zone and plays a bit recklessly at times, but his bat speed is so good he gets away with an overaggressive approach. Should produce plenty of power and batting average, and I expect the discipline will improve. Even his defense was better than expected. Gary Sheffield comps may prove quite valid.

 

2) Albert Almora, OF, Grade B+: Solid or better tools in all categories, excellent makeup. Was supposed to have good plate discipline but he only walked twice in 145 plate appearances, which is unacceptably low. However he kept his strikeouts under control and scouts believe he will adjust.

 

3) Jorge Soler, OF, Grade B+: Highly impressive power/speed combo from the Cuban defector. Main advantage Almora has at this point is a better birthday, but I love Soler. Another Sammy Sosa?

 

4) Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Grade B: Borderline B+. I'm having the courage of my convictions with this one. This guy is not just a masher, he's got excellent pure hitting skills too, and he's worked hard to get himself into better shape. Could end up as a Prince Fielderish run producer if everything maxes out.

 

5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B-: Rating is cautious until we see how rapidly he bounces back from Tommy John surgery.

 

6) Brett Jackson, OF, Grade B-: Tough ranking. All the tools are here, love the power/speed combination and he'll take a walk, but his strikeout problem could destroy his career if he doesn't make some adjustments.

 

7) Dillon Maples, RHP, Grade B-: Could develop into a number two starter due to promising fastball/curveball combination, but we need more data from higher levels to see if his command improves and if his mechanics (which some scouts don't like) become an issue.

 

8) Christian Villanueva, 3B, Grade B-: Nice pickup from the Rangers. Outstanding glove at third base, gap power, superior makeup. Needs to tighten up the strike zone but I think he can.

 

9) Matt Szczur, OF, Grade B-: I don't like him as much as some people do, but the tools are obvious. At worst he should be a good reserve outfielder with speed and defense, but it is still an open question if he hits enough to play regularly.

 

10) Pierce Johnson, RHP, Grade B-: Solid all-around, good fastball and strong curve, throws strikes, main worry is history of forearm troubles. Mid-rotation starter if his arm holds up.

 

11) Gioskar Amaya, 2B, Grade B-: I think he will take a huge step forward in 2013. Defense at second base is better than it was at shortstop. He's got pop, can steal bases, and has a good swing.

 

12) Duane Underwood, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+: One of my favorite players from the 2012 draft. He's erratic but was also one of the youngest guys in the entire draft class. When right, he's got upper-90s velocity and promising secondary pitches. Needs more consistency in all respects, as his velocity varies and his command is problematic.

 

13) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Maybe I'm underestimating him and this is just psychological prospect fatigue. I can see a B- case and ranking him as high as 11th. But after watching him many times over the years, I remain unimpressed with the glove, and if he ends up at first base the pressure on the bat will grow all the stronger.

 

14) Junior Lake, SS, Grade C+: Borderline B-: As with Vitters, I can see ranking him ahead of Underwood due to his proximity to the majors. Lake's tools are tremendous but he is still a very raw and frustrating player. He could turn into Nelson Cruz, or Angel Berroa.

 

15) Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Grade C+: Although his power production sagged in the Northwest League, he's young for the level and scouts still think he'll hit for average and power as he moves up. Poor defense will likely result in a positional switch at some point. Could be much higher next year.

 

16) Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP, Grade C+: Scouting reports about his power arm are certainly intriguing, but let's see how it pans out. Could be much higher once we get some objective data.

 

17) Paul Blackburn, RHP, Grade C+: Doesn't have Underwood or Paniagua's upside, but he's quite polished and has strong pitchability and makeup.

 

18) Marco Hernandez, SS, Grade C+: Defense gets strong reviews and he's got a chance to hit, too. Hernandez/Candelario/Amaya is a hell of an infield for Low-A in '13.

 

19) Arismendy Alcantara, SS, Grade C+: In the middle of a strong age 20 breakout season (.302/.339/.447 with 25 steals) in High-A when he got injured, but healthy now and back in action in the Dominican Winter League.

 

20) Barret Loux, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a useful fourth starter, and soon, assuming that he stays healthy. Medical record is long, but he hasn't had issues since getting into pro ball.

 

That's pretty encouraging if you ask me...

[CubsWin]

John also included other C+ prospects that didn't make the list as well as others worth following...

OTHER GRADE C+ PROSPECTS: Michael Jensen, RHP; Kyle Hendricks, RHP; Trey McNutt, RHP; Ryan McNeil, RHP; Starling Peralta, RHP; Ronald Torreyes, 2B; Logan Watkins, 2B; Ben Wells, RHP; Tony Zych, RHP

 

OTHERS: Jose Arias, RHP; Stephen Bruno, INF; Alberto Cabrera, RHP; Marcelo Carreno, RHP; Shawon Dunston, OF; Jae-Hoon Ha, OF; Trey Martin, OF; Brooks Raley, LHP; Jose Rosario, RHP; Tim Saunders, INF; Tayler Scott, RHP; Nick Struck, RHP, Robert Whitenack, RHP.

 

John specifically mentions Michael Jensen as someone to keep an eye on. I love that players in the "Others" catagory such as Alberto Cabrera (if he can make the conversion to effective starter), Trey Martin and Robert Whitenack still have a decent ceiling and could be much higher on this list in the not-so-distant future.

[CubsWin]

Here's to the Cubs new, state-of-the-art front office for the talent they added in just one year. 9 of the top 20 joined the organization since Theo and Co. took over.

 

2. Almora

3. Soler

5. Vizcaino

8. Villanueva

10. Johnson

12. Underwood

16. Paniagua

17. Blackburn

20. Loux

[jumbo]

Here is the complete Sickels Cubs Top 20 list.

Hernandez/Candelario/Amaya is a hell of an infield for Low-A in '13.

 

That's pretty encouraging if you ask me...

 

Does this give anyone else the urge to predict the roster of AA/A+/A-??

Any predictions on where everyone starts?

[Guest]

Here is the complete Sickels Cubs Top 20 list.

Hernandez/Candelario/Amaya is a hell of an infield for Low-A in '13.

 

That's pretty encouraging if you ask me...

 

Does this give anyone else the urge to predict the roster of AA/A+/A-??

Any predictions on where everyone starts?

 

I think that deserves its own thread if anyone is willing to start one.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Here's to the Cubs new, state-of-the-art front office for the talent they added in just one year. 9 of the top 20 joined the organization since Theo and Co. took over.

 

2. Almora

3. Soler

5. Vizcaino

8. Villanueva

10. Johnson

12. Underwood

16. Paniagua

17. Blackburn

20. Loux

 

In addition to Rizzo, 3/5 of our current rotation, and a possible closer, all while spending minimally and giving up only two players (Cashner, Marshall) that might have figured into our future. I'd say that they're off to a pretty good start in the "acquiring young players to help us win now and in the future" department.

[mul21]

I'm totally blanking on the other guy who was in the DSL at the same time as Candelario and hit really well but not quite as much as Candelario. Who was that? And where does he fit now?

[Guest]

You're probably thinking of Kevin Encarnacion, who killed it for DSL 1 before coming up to DSL 2 with Candelario and merely hit well. He repeated DSL 2 last year with good success, a .308/.447/.465. However, he turned 21 a couple weeks ago, and that makes him pretty much a non-prospect to not have gotten state-side by now.

[mul21]

Oh, come on, I'm not WSR! I just looked it up and the numbers weren't as good as I remembered, but it was Carlos Penalver I was thinking of.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=5222ed2a

[toonsterwu]

Penalver's probably going to start in XST and maybe head to Boise. There's a case to be made that he might be the best defensive shortstop in the system, but offensively, he's a big question. I think there's some intrigue there (not a lot, but some), but the combination of youth, being far away, and clear offensive questions probably leaves him off most top 20's, and many top 30's.

[davell]

Can't link it from my cell, but Frankie Piliere(now at PerfectGame) did his Cubs top 10 today. Soler at 1.

[Guest]

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7825

 

The Cubs have rapidly transitioned from one of the weakest farm systems in baseball just a couple years ago to having one of the best collections of talent in the lower level of the minors in the entire game.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There is a good amount of pitching depth,There is a good amount of pitching depth,

 

That's the first time I've seen an article reference that, I think. It's true, but it seems like organizational reputations have some inertia and it takes some time for them to catch up to reality.

[Guest]

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7825

 

The Cubs have rapidly transitioned from one of the weakest farm systems in baseball just a couple years ago to having one of the best collections of talent in the lower level of the minors in the entire game.

 

 

In spite of the bullish long term prospectus, it doesn't appear that the sign hanging from the Lakeview Baseball Club on Sheffield Ave will read "AC000000" in the near future.

 

Jokes on him. That sign is gone (I think...unless it went back up).

[toonsterwu]

Interesting to hear someone actually note Eric Jokisch this winter somewhere.

 

The Pilere list looks interesting. Would've been nice to hear his argument for Soler at 1.