BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[davell]

Prospect roundtable (Almora, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18860

More awesome stuff. Baez: Lunatic with a weapon.

[Cubswin11]

Hearing some of this stuff about Baez, which really isn't new, kind of makes me think of Carlos Gomez. Crazy tools all over the place, plays a premium position but takes violent swings and doesn't have much plate discipline. If everything comes together though, you have a top 3 player at the position and top 10-15 player in all of MLB.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Prospect roundtable (Almora, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18860

More awesome stuff. Baez: Lunatic with a weapon.

 

Holy ish yes. That was the first thing I noticed, too.

[Cubswin11]

Fangraphs top 15:

 

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Soler

4. Maples

5. Vogelbach

6. Vizcaino

7. B. Jackson

8. Szczur

9. Villanueva

10. Vitters

11. M. Hernandez

12. Candelario

13. Lake

14. Underwood

15. T. Martin

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chicago-cubs-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

[davell]

Hulet on Twitter about his Fangraphs list: Wrote this on org packed with intriguing prospects.

[toonsterwu]

Okay, this is going to be a bit harsh ...

 

but what the heck? Dillon Maples as the 4th prospect in the system? .......

 

I get upside. I can buy the top 10 inclusion in Parks list. But 4th? The explanation reads like someone who read a scouting report somewhere without

really doing any legwork (I know Hulet has his sources, but geesh, it really reads like some random scouting report from his draft year).

 

I'm just a bit flabbergasted with that, and I didn't think it possible to be really flabbergasted at any Cubs prospect list this winter. Guess I was wrong.

 

I like the hat tip to Justin Marra.

 

That also might be the most positive review on Szczur this winter.

[toonsterwu]

Prospect roundtable (Almora, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18860

 

I find it odd in that the stuff they put up, only Faleris seemed to be arguing hard for Almora as first, with at least 2 others pushing Baez as first. Not the biggest deal, but I wonder what the process was in determining things.

[Guest]

Lot of head scratching on that Fan Graphs list.

 

Maples at 4 is...perplexing. It's not last offseason.

[Guest]

Lot of head scratching on that Fan Graphs list.

 

Maples at 4 is...perplexing. It's not last offseason.

Two seasons, still in rookie ball, barely any innings pitched for Maples. There's no way I put him anywhere near #4.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

BP and Fangraphs both had Panigua and Maples switched from where I expected to see each.

[toonsterwu]

The problem I have with the BP/Fangraphs list is seeing them tout Maples/Underwood, and leaving Paniagua off. If you want to leave all of them off, fine. I get that. If you take Starling Peralta's excellent start against, um, Beloit?, this year, he'd be a candidate for top 10, but he hasn't shown that consistency. If you want to put all three on, on an upside argument ... okay.

 

But to split it? It's not as if Maples/Underwood have a long enough performance record to turn to, and the reports on stuff would seem to have Paniagua up there with them,

 

_____

 

Total side note: I'm surprised at how ... eh ... I feel about Pierce Johnson not being on Hulet's list. I think he should be on a top 15 ... but I don't feel bothered by it.

[mul21]

The problem I have with the BP/Fangraphs list is seeing them tout Maples/Underwood, and leaving Paniagua off. If you want to leave all of them off, fine. I get that. If you take Starling Peralta's excellent start against, um, Beloit?, this year, he'd be a candidate for top 10, but he hasn't shown that consistency. If you want to put all three on, on an upside argument ... okay.

 

But to split it? It's not as if Maples/Underwood have a long enough performance record to turn to, and the reports on stuff would seem to have Paniagua up there with them,

 

_____

 

Total side note: I'm surprised at how ... eh ... I feel about Pierce Johnson not being on Hulet's list. I think he should be on a top 15 ... but I don't feel bothered by it.

 

He looked dominant on a sporadic basis this year, but definitely lacked consistency. I saw him against the Reds affiliate (Dayton?) and he was nearly untouchable. I can see him listed highly before some of these other less/unproven guys despite being a bit older.

[davell]

All these guys, and their contacts as well, have had more looks at Underwood and Maples, even if its from HS, than they have Paniagua. Hell, some may not have ever seen him at this point. I'll take Law's first hand accounts and his general excitement on JCP and be happy. If I could bet on one SP from our system being a consensus top 100 type next year, thats here right now, I'm taking him easily.

[CUBZ99]

Great read. The thing that most surprised me about the BP list is that they listed 4 pitchers in the top 10. They appear to be very bullish on the Cubs pitching prospects and that is good to hear.

[jumbo]

Okay, this is going to be a bit harsh ...

 

but what the heck? Dillon Maples as the 4th prospect in the system? .......

 

I get upside. I can buy the top 10 inclusion in Parks list. But 4th? The explanation reads like someone who read a scouting report somewhere without

really doing any legwork (I know Hulet has his sources, but geesh, it really reads like some random scouting report from his draft year).

 

This exchange was in the comments - and I was very surprised at the assessment of Maples' ceiling

 

 

TJ says:

November 8, 2012 at 11:50 am

I tend to view the top of the system as really good (although

I am really befuddled with the Maples ranking here, and I didn’t think I’d be surprised with any Cubs prospect list this winter), some weaknessl in that “2nd tier” (let’s loosely call them Sickels B level prospects), and then a very strong 3rd tier. Short of it is, I tend to think the depth is relatively solid, with a strong batch of raw arms from A+ on down, and a good group of positional assets likely to start in the A ball ranks in 2013.

 

Reply

Marc Hulet says:

November 8, 2012 at 2:53 pm

Maples has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the league and people I spoke to felt he would be ready to go for spring training 2013 so I’m excited to see what he can do. His ranking is based on pure potential and upside.

[jersey cubs fan]

Reply

Marc Hulet says:

November 8, 2012 at 2:53 pm

Maples has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the league and people I spoke to felt he would be ready to go for spring training 2013 so I’m excited to see what he can do. His ranking is based on pure potential and upside.

 

To what league is he referring?

[jumbo]

I dunno, but any league is surprising to me given that he barely pitched.

[radarluv1]

ok i get the 20-80 scale, but whats the 5, 6, 7, scale, based out of 10? i'm hoping its 1-8. Also whats "first division"? Top 20% of players in that position?

 

ETA: unless i'm missing something the 2010 draft looks like a pile of hot garbage

[Guest]

ok i get the 20-80 scale, but whats the 5, 6, 7, scale, based out of 10? i'm hoping its 1-8. Also whats "first division"? Top 20% of players in that position?

 

ETA: unless i'm missing something the 2010 draft looks like a pile of hot garbage

 

The 5, 6, 7, 8 is really the 20-80 scale with the 0 dropped. Yeah, a first division player probably works out to top 20% at his position.

 

I have 2 guys from the 2010 draft in my top 30 - Matt Szczur and Ben Wells. Obviously you could see some role player big league contributions from Kevin Rhoderick, Casey Harman, Matt Loosen, Austin Reed and Dallas Beeler. I guess the ship hasn't completely sailed on Reggie Golden and Dustin Geiger. Hayden Simpson was such a horrible pick.

[SABR Gamer]

ok i get the 20-80 scale, but whats the 5, 6, 7, scale, based out of 10? i'm hoping its 1-8. Also whats "first division"? Top 20% of players in that position?

 

ETA: unless i'm missing something the 2010 draft looks like a pile of hot garbage

 

 

5, 6, 7 scale is 2-8.

[scarey]

ok i get the 20-80 scale, but whats the 5, 6, 7, scale, based out of 10? i'm hoping its 1-8. Also whats "first division"? Top 20% of players in that position?

 

ETA: unless i'm missing something the 2010 draft looks like a pile of hot garbage

 

The 5, 6, 7, 8 is really the 20-80 scale with the 0 dropped. Yeah, a first division player probably works out to top 20% at his position.

 

I have 2 guys from the 2010 draft in my top 30 - Matt Szczur and Ben Wells. Obviously you could see some role player big league contributions from Kevin Rhoderick, Casey Harman, Matt Loosen, Austin Reed and Dallas Beeler. I guess the ship hasn't completely sailed on Reggie Golden and Dustin Geiger. Hayden Simpson was such a horrible pick.

 

 

Is it crazy for me to want to wait and see if Simpson will bounce back still?

 

I'm not exactly getting my hopes up, but he finished the year with pretty decent peripherals (albeit, at Boise). I keep getting the feeling that the guy knows how to pitch, but just can't keep hitters off balance without the velocity. If he were to get back to mid 90s, I would think he could be dominant again.

 

I have to wonder if he was a product of PEDs. The one big thing that's been reported has been his lack of velocity, so it kinda make's sense.

 

Hopefully we ends up playing at Kane County at some point this year so people can get a good look at him on herer and report to us.

[jersey cubs fan]

Is it crazy for me to want to wait and see if Simpson will bounce back still?

 

It's crazy if it is at the cost of anything else. But if it's just letting the guy keep showing up and trying then I guess it's not that crazy.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Regardless of how awful of a pick, Wilken will always get a Mulligan on Simpson due to the mono.

 

Golden's the one that I always seem to forget about when looking back at the the 2010 draft. Just turned 21, and if I were to rank the my personal top position player prospects based purely on offensive upside, I'd go Soler, Vogelbach(though I'm doubtful that he'll be a Cub if/when he reaches it) Baez, Almora, Candelerio, Golden

[toonsterwu]

Purely on offensive upside, I think Javier Baez is number 1 for me. The bat speed and power potential is just top notch. I haven't really pondered a list after that. On offensive upside, I might ponder Vogelbach 2nd. If not Dan, then Jorge. Let's see, I'd probably go Almora/Candelario after that.

 

Hmm ... I'm not sure I buy Golden as 5th on that list for offensive upside. On power, sure, he's up there in this system, but in terms of offensive ceiling, does he really match up with Marco Hernandez's bat speed/average power/speed combination? Or heck, even Brett Jackson, who might be a decent comp of a scenario for Reggie Golden's development? Just because Brett is more known doesn't mean that his ceiling is necessarily lower than Reggie's. Gioskar Amaya is somewhere in that mix as well.

 

But that's me.

[toonsterwu]

In case people aren't aware of it, Sickels is gearing up to do his prospect list for us. He has his long list out, and is looking for suggestions on adjustments (I was mildly surprised by some names that made it onto the initial list - in the comments section, he's put an updated list out, trimming 6 ... a couple surprising trims, IMO).

 

Keep in mind that after the top few, he's always noted that the rest of the list is a jumble in some respects, and sometimes he prefers to talk about certain guys for certain reasons (last year, Jay Jackson made it ahead of Alberto Cabrera, as he was adamantly against Cabrera and thought Jay was a nice "tale" to tell because he was so hyped in 08/09 ... this year, sounds like Dunston's name (legacy) and Shoulders name (coolness) will make it on)).