BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[sneakypower]

Villanueva was their 100th prospect last year at this time; pretty odd that a decent, age-appropriate performance in a notorious pitcher's league would dim his star that much

[toonsterwu]

Not very high on Villenueva?

 

The question should be, and I got sucked into ranking Villanueva higher than I really wanted to ... why should they be high on Villanueva? I kept asking people ... why should Villanueva be ahead of Alcantara? Their offensive projections are similar, and Alcantara, while he has some issues defensively, as of now, he has the tools to potentially stick at short. So ... a shortstop or a third baseman with similar offensive projections?

 

That said, I completely forgot Fujikawa was eligible. Wouldn't surprise me if Villanueva was next man up.

[craig]

toonster, you've been a strong Alcantara guy, so you called this one. I've never ranked him that high, I admit I've doubted:

a. Is he big/strong enough to actually hit for useful big-league power?

b. Is he actually fast enough to steal or anything like that?

c. Will his tiny walk rates improve significantly?

d. With so many errors at SS, is there something missing defensively that will not be "fixed" with time.

 

But my questions can't be any different than the kind that BA and their sources are considering. So if they think the answers are favorable enough to get him into the top 10, that tells me a lot and is really encouraging.

 

I thought the 2b reference made a lot of sense. Obviously Barney is great defensively and has years to go before free agency. But, if we add Alcantara to the list, and think he could be good enough offensively and perhaps a big value defensively at 2B, that gives me a lot of guys who might be possibilities for 2B.

Baez, Watkins, Alcantara, Torreyes, Amaya, Marco Hernandez, DeLaRosa

 

Other then DeLaRosa, four years till Barney's free agency is probably time enough for any of the others to get themselves ready.

[toonsterwu]

craig, I think we discussed this, or at least, I've said it elsewhere. I'm actually not a big Alcantara guy. I try to rank as best as possible in removing my biases (doesn't always work, I see the case some make for Logan Watkins to go higher, but I just can't pull that trigger). If I was big on any shortstop in the system, it's still Marco Hernandez.

 

That said, I've always thought the case for Alcantara to be high was much better than people acknowledged. Offensively, assuming you are defining useful big league power as average power potential (say 10-12 HR's, maybe a tick more on a good year, a tick less on a bad year, a healthy amount of gap hits), the bat speed and loft in the swing is there to project for average power. He actually had a very good percentage on SB's this past year BUT ... I wouldn't expect him to be a 20+ steals guy on a consistent basis (more on this a bit later). I don't know - call this a gut feeling, but I just don't know if I expect that. I could see him do that in his youth, but as he gets older, I'd guess a 10-15 SB a year type of guy. There's enough raw speed (not saying it's plus) that he could be a 20+SB guy on a consistent basis. Offensively, he can profile for 2nd.

 

C and D are the two big issues. If there's a reason that I'm not big on Alcantara, it's because when I see him, I really still have concerns that he might get exposed against upper level pitching, as he still seems fairly aggressive (then again, so is Villanueva). Without a bigger sample size of games, though, that could be viewer bias. The other big issue is his defense. Now, I believe, at this moment in time, the raw tools are there to stick at short, and the question is whether or not he can tidy things up and become more consistent. I have heard some people (there was a poster somewhere) who argued that they felt he was thickening up, and that he might grow out of having the raw tools to be at short (which could limit his SB ability). Body-point analysis, which is all we have unless someone has insights with the Cubs medical staff, is still more guesswork than actual assessment (Although the NFL actually does a very good job with this). I'm not actually convinced that Alcantara will add a lot more size to his frame (natural weight that is, if he wants to gorge on McDonald's, I can't predict that). Without having clear knowledge of whether or not he's a good student and can learn, I can't really assess if there's anything that he can't improve from a technique perspective. What I've seen, I think it can be improved, but again ... a lot of guess/gut work here.

 

But ... I've always thought the case for Alcantara was fairly strong. Average power potential, potential to stick at short, youth, and good bat speed. Add in production from this past season, and it's a good case.

[toonsterwu]

I tried telling you chuckleheads about Johnson. You'll see, you'll all see.

 

I've always said I might be unfair to Pierce Johnson. I said this to someone the other day, I forget who, but if Pierce Johnson's breaking ball is legitimately consistently plus, then we've all under-rated him, including perhaps this BA ranking, because a college arm with 2 consistent, plus pitches should be high. For me, the couple reports that were lukewarm about his breaking ball just made me cautious. I'm not even all that bothered by his health history - it's simply the breaking ball for me.

[Guest]

Not very high on Villenueva?

 

The question should be, and I got sucked into ranking Villanueva higher than I really wanted to ... why should they be high on Villanueva? I kept asking people ... why should Villanueva be ahead of Alcantara? Their offensive projections are similar, and Alcantara, while he has some issues defensively, as of now, he has the tools to potentially stick at short. So ... a shortstop or a third baseman with similar offensive projections?

 

That said, I completely forgot Fujikawa was eligible. Wouldn't surprise me if Villanueva was next man up.

 

Per the chat, Paniagua was 11 and Villanueva 12.

 

Fujikawa didn't knock anyone out of the top 30, he just replaced Peralta.

[Clem Fandango]

Here's what shocked me the most:

 

http://i.imgur.com/sBIlC.png

 

For someone who people thought was gonna have to be moved off SS, but then were pleasantly surprised... I didn't expect them to think he was the best defensive infielder in the entire system

Edited January 7, 2013 by The Logan

[Guest]

Callis dropped a Jimmy Rollins comp on Alcantara.

[craig]

From chat, he has Paniagua-Villa-Cabrera at 11-12-13.

 

He's got Watkins-Hernandez-Amaya at 19-20-21. (heh, so he was right on the bubble with Hernandez/Amaya too, just like our poll, and likewise gave Marco the nod...)

 

Mentioned some that didn't make it: Ha, Torreyes, Bruno, Jensen, Dunston, Ryu.

 

Pretty sure that Szczur, Underwood and Maples will be in there, probably all three in the teens.

 

Vitters and Lake will still show up somewhere, says some scouts still see Vitters as a .275/20HR guy.

 

His Blackburn eval was unchanged from basic draft writeup, so he'll probably be in there, back ten.

 

Sounds like Martin, probably.

 

He was pretty positive about pre-surgery Whitenack, so I'm guessing he'll fit onto the back ten somewhere.

 

No mention in the chat, but I've got to assume that Zych and Rondon will appear somewhere on his list, they usually fit Rule 5 guys in there somewhere if there is anything good scouting-wise.

[Guest]

Hah, craig beat me to it trying to plot out the rest of the top 30.

[craig]

Hah, craig beat me to it trying to plot out the rest of the top 30.

 

Heh heh. So I took a look at our running poll,

*Torreyes is the one guy in our top-20 that callis won't have on his top 30. (Swap in Fuji for Torreyes...)

*Of the 15 non-Fujis who he specified from his top 21, all fifteen are in our top 20, even if shuffled a bit.

*Of our top 20, (other than Torreyes), it's Maples, Vitters, Lake, and Underwood that Callis hasn't said where they'll fall on his list. But, he's got only 5 spots in his top-21 that he hasn't already given away. So I'm guessing our four names will all fit somewhere into his 14-18 spots.

*I wonder who the other guy is outside our top 20, but who Callis has in front of Watkins-Marco-Amaya? Who is your guess, cal?

[CubsWin]

Hah, craig beat me to it trying to plot out the rest of the top 30.

 

Heh heh. So I took a look at our running poll,

*Torreyes is the one guy in our top-20 that callis won't have on his top 30. (Swap in Fuji for Torreyes...)

*Of the 15 non-Fujis who he specified from his top 21, all fifteen are in our top 20, even if shuffled a bit.

*Of our top 20, (other than Torreyes), it's Maples, Vitters, Lake, and Underwood that Callis hasn't said where they'll fall on his list. But, he's got only 5 spots in his top-21 that he hasn't already given away. So I'm guessing our four names will all fit somewhere into his 14-18 spots.

*I wonder who the other guy is outside our top 20, but who Callis has in front of Watkins-Marco-Amaya? Who is your guess, cal?

You mentioned Szczur earlier. Wouldn't he round out those 5?

[craig]

yes, you're probably right! So his 14-18 spots, are unspecified, probably populated by Szczur, Vitters, Lake, Underwood, and Maples in some order or other. Fun.

 

Somehow, there is often some surprise. I recall the board being surprised at how high Barney was two years ago, and I recall Mateo being a surprise. So maybe that will happen again. But I'm guessing we've got his first 21.

[toonsterwu]

Here's what shocked me the most:

 

http://i.imgur.com/sBIlC.png

 

For someone who people thought was gonna have to be moved off SS, but then were pleasantly surprised... I didn't expect them to think he was the best defensive infielder in the entire system

 

The other shocking one was Alberto Cabrera with the best slider, and I've long argued that his breaking ball was better than given credit for ... but best?

[toonsterwu]

You know, another guy that I wonder if I got sucked into over-rating a bit is Paniagua. This isn't to say Paniagua isn't good, but having him solidly in the top 6-8 seems just a tick high. There's just a lot of assumptions on Paniagua that led to him going so high for some of us, such as his ability to hold his velocity, the breaking ball assumed as showing well, the assumption that he's more polished, and so forth, but really ... he's a nice, high ceiling raw arm, like Underwood and Maples (neither guy being in my top 10).

 

The one ranking that sort of surprised me was Candelario at 8. Love the ceiling, but a lot of development to get to said ceiling.

[CubsWin]

The one ranking that sort of surprised me was Candelario at 8. Love the ceiling, but a lot of development to get to said ceiling.

I was surprised by his high ranking as well, so I did some digging. The thing that excites me the most about Candelario is his age relative to his league. What he did as an 18-year-old in short season A ball was pretty rare last season. Jeimer compiled an OPS of .741 over 310 plate appearances. Only one other player managed as good an OPS in a similar sample size at the same age in short season, and that was Danry Vasquez. BA ranks him as the 6th best prospect in the Tigers organization. Only two other 18-year-olds had over 200 PA, Tigers OF Danry Vasquez (311 PA, OPS .742) & Mariners IF Ketel Marte (269 PA, OPS .560). Only one other had over 100 PA, Rangers IF Smerling Lantigua (157 PA, OPS .524).

 

Thirteen other 18-year-olds got cups of coffee in short season, and 5 of those were 1st round picks.

 

Mets SS Gavin Cecchini (6 PA, OPS .167, 1st round pick) BA's 2nd best prospect for the Mets.

A's SS Addison Russell (57 PA, OPS .895, 1st round pick, went on to A ball) BA's #1 prospect for the A's.

A's 1B Matt Olson (16 PA, OPS .983, 1st round pick) BA's 10th best prospect...

Rangers 3B Joey Gallo (67 PA, OPS .808, 1st round pick) BA's 10th best prospect...

Blue Jays CF DJ Davis (23 PA, OPS .514, 1st round pick, 6 months younger) Toronto's 6th best prospect per BA.

Indians SS Dorssys Paulino (62 PA, OPS .713, but was great at Rookie level and is a year younger) Cleveland's #2 prospect per BA.

 

In the Appy & Pioneer leagues, there were ten 18-year-olds, half of which were 1st or 2nd round picks, but those leagues are considered rookie leagues and a step below the Northwest and New York-Penn.

 

Twins OF Byron Buxton (87 PA, OPS .796, 1st round pick, Appalachian League - Rookie Level) BA's #2 for the Twins.

Reds OF Jesse Winker (275 PA, OPS .943, 1st round pick, Pioneer League - Rookie Level)

Dodgers SS Corey Seager (202 PA, OPS .903, 1st round pick, Pioneer League - Rookie Level)

Dodgers 3B Alex Santana (102 PA, OPS .706, 2nd round pick, Pioneer League - Rookie Level)

Brewers CF Tyrone Taylor (45 PA, OPS 1.108, 2nd round pick, Pioneer League - Rookie Level)

 

It looks like Candelario is in the company of a lot top ten prospects and high round draft picks. This seems to suggest that he has earned that 8th ranking. Not bad for a guy who was signed to a $500,000 bonus.

[craig]

Thanks, CubsWin. He's young and competitive, and would seem to have a lot of potential if he gets better and improves.

 

We'll see if he does. He certainly has plenty of time, and by all accounts he seems to be an alert, hard-working type of personality.

 

The reports are not too favorable about his 3B defense. But they are extremely favorable about his arm. A key question for him will be where he ends up: 3B, 1B, LF, or RF. Not sure if he'll have the speed for the OF spots, but who knows. Maybe something of a Vitters: hope that he'll hit enough so that if he develops enough defensively, to the point of being mediocre/average, his bat will be more than good enough to justify mediocre defense.

 

I do wonder if his tools might perhaps profile well at catcher? Big arm would be plenty sufficient. No need for big range or running speed. And supposedly smart/alert with the good people skills that are important for catchers. In a system with essentially zero catching prospects, it would be fun to try. And obviously however good his bat ends up, it will play lots bigger at C than anywhere else. But, obviously lots more to catching defense than having a good arm. Takes a lot of quickness, coordination, and there must be some body-build/flexibility issues to enable the legs to crouch and spring, year after year.

[craig]

You know, another guy that I wonder if I got sucked into over-rating a bit is Paniagua. This isn't to say Paniagua isn't good, but having him solidly in the top 6-8 seems just a tick high. There's just a lot of assumptions on Paniagua that led to him going so high for some of us, such as his ability to hold his velocity, the breaking ball assumed as showing well, the assumption that he's more polished, and so forth, but really ... he's a nice, high ceiling raw arm, like Underwood and Maples (neither guy being in my top 10).

 

The one ranking that sort of surprised me was Candelario at 8. Love the ceiling, but a lot of development to get to said ceiling.

 

Seems to me that by the 6-15 range in the rankings, it's just really hard. Constant conflict about how to value projection/ceiling/scouting. Paniagua, Maples, Underwood, Johnson, they're all a mile away and it's totally a matter of projection and assumptions. But Candelario too, and Alcantara, can he learn some plate discipline, will his power grow, can he learn to throw straight, can he gain defensive consistency? No shortage of projection/assumptions there either. Even a Brett Jackson, it's kind of a massive assumption to imagine a guy dramatically rebuilding his swing.

 

Very hard to differentiate among the projection pitchers. I included all four of them in my top 10 (Johnson, Paniagua, Underwood, and Maples). You split them up (the teenagers in second 10, the older Johnson/Pag in top 10). Callis with a somewhat different split. Seems like all these guys are so close, it doesn't take much to slide guys up or down quite a ways.

 

Fun to have some fascinating arms around, though.

[toonsterwu]

Candelario at catcher? Hmm ... I had never pondered that. It's an interesting thought. I doubt they ponder that type of move unless he absolutely crashes and burns in the field.

 

Cubswin - I love Candelario's ceiling, and I can see a case, based off ceiling, to put him top 10. The way he tailed off, plus the fact that the power is more projection than what's there right now, is what pushes me to, personally, put him more in that 9-14 range.

[craig]

Candelario at catcher? Hmm ... I had never pondered that. It's an interesting thought. I doubt they ponder that type of move unless he absolutely crashes and burns in the field....

 

That's usually the problem, management usually waits until it's too late. Becoming a good catcher takes a much longer commitment than converting from SS to 2B, or even converting to pitcher.

 

Even for that, sooner is better. Marmol was 19, that was good. Randy Wells. But think how much better it would have been had Burke converted a couple of years earlier? Or Junior Lake, perhaps the best arm in the system, but he'll be 23 this year. Getting kind of late to start pitching.

[craig]

yes, you're probably right! So his 14-18 spots, are unspecified, probably populated by Szczur, Vitters, Lake, Underwood, and Maples in some order or other. Fun. Somehow, there is often some surprise....

 

Here's the rest of the BA list. Some surprises.

11. Juan Carlos Paniagua

12. Christian Villanueva

13. Alberto Cabrera

14. Matt Szczur

15. Junior Lake

16. Paul Blackburn

17. Duane Underwood

18. Dillon Maples

19. Logan Watkins

20. Marco Hernandez

21. Gioskar Amaya

22. Tony Zych

23. Robert Whitenack

24. Trey McNutt

25. Josh Vitters

26. Barret Loux

27. Matt Loosen

28. Lendy Castillo

29. Marcus Hatley

30. Trey Martin

31. Reggie Golden

[Guest]

Loosen is really the only truly surprising inclusion. I forgot Lendy Castillo would qualify because BA ignores service time.

[Tryptamine]

How does Torreyes now make the top 31? I still like him more than any other 2B prospect in the organization.

[Guest]

How does Vitters drop to 25?

[Cubswin11]

How does Vitters drop to 25?

I don't know, he has a higher ceiling than all of the position players in front of him that aren't in the top 10 (except maybe Lake if he can stick at SS) and he's had more success while age appropriate/young at every level in minors than everyone in front of him (except maybe Villanueva).