2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

Not sure where this should go but

 

DKnobler ‏@DKnobler

 

Rangers wanted Upton enough that they tried to trade Olt for ATL's Simmons (who AZ wants). Braves wouldn't do it, tho.

 

Do the Braves not like offense? Simmons is good but I'd definitely take Olt over him.

No kidding. Olt fills a huge position of need and allows them to get creative with Prado. Tough to turn down a future/long term core of Heyward/Olt/Freeman. I'm guessing the late season tomfoolery that the Rangers pulled with Olt hurt his value in the eyes of some FO's?

[Tryptamine]

I guess that also means Arizona isn't interested in Olt then (or Andrus for that matter).

 

Texas already said they aren't trading Andrus for Upton.

[Clem Fandango]

I guess that also means Arizona isn't interested in Olt then (or Andrus for that matter).

 

Texas already said they aren't trading Andrus for Upton.

 

1) Whoops, didn't see that

 

2) Why the hell not?

[Tryptamine]

I guess that also means Arizona isn't interested in Olt then (or Andrus for that matter).

 

Texas already said they aren't trading Andrus for Upton.

 

1) Whoops, didn't see that

 

2) Why the hell not?

 

No clue, I mean Andrus is obviously very good but when you have Profar he's expendable. My only thought is maybe Profar goes to 2B because Kinsler's name has been floated as a trade candidate. I also read something where Kinsler was mentioned as going to the outfield.

[SouthSideRyan]

I love Justin Upton, but I think just about everyone on here is overvaluing what it will take to acquire him. He's no longer cheap, he's no longer under control for a long time, and he hasn't been a model of consistency.

[Tryptamine]

I love Justin Upton, but I think just about everyone on here is overvaluing what it will take to acquire him. He's no longer cheap, he's no longer under control for a long time, and he hasn't been a model of consistency.

 

I've been saying this for a while. The guy is only under contract for 2 years at which point he's going to require a huge contract. He plays corner outfielder which is one of the easiest positions to add an impact bat. He's coming off a merely OK year. His home OPS is .200OPS above his away OPS. Plus there's always rumors of chronic shoulder issues. He's still a very good young player, but not giving multiple top prospects for that.

[Guest]

I guess that also means Arizona isn't interested in Olt then (or Andrus for that matter).

 

Texas already said they aren't trading Andrus for Upton.

 

1) Whoops, didn't see that

 

2) Why the hell not?

 

No clue, I mean Andrus is obviously very good but when you have Profar he's expendable. My only thought is maybe Profar goes to 2B because Kinsler's name has been floated as a trade candidate. I also read something where Kinsler was mentioned as going to the outfield.

I'm not trying to troll, I'm really not. But Andrus in 2011 was essentially Castro in 2012 at the same age. Especially when considering the contract situations of the two players, Castro is obviously more valuable. But I don't think the gulf is so wide that both these statements can be true:

 

A) Arizona would be stupid to trade Upton for Andrus

B) Arizona should have to send Bauer + Davidson in addition to Upton and we still shouldn't do the trade

[Guest]

BTW - my primary point there is that people are underestimating the value of Andrus.

[Guest]

Andrus is 2 years from free agency. Castro pre-extension was 4 years from FA, and currently is 7 years from free agency.

[Guest]

Andrus is 2 years from free agency. Castro pre-extension was 4 years from FA, and currently is 7 years from free agency.

And that's really the only difference between their current or age-similar values. It's a big one, but not big enough to justify both of those statements being true.

[Guest]

Castro turns 23 next year and is signed through 2019. Andrus turns 25 next year and is signed through 2014. Of course there's going to be a chasm in their trade values. If you want to nitpick the difference as to whether that difference is quite worth an exact sequence of players, go for it I suppose. There's no gotcha finding here, they are in different leagues in terms of value to their club.

[Tryptamine]

Andrus is 2 years from free agency. Castro pre-extension was 4 years from FA, and currently is 7 years from free agency.

And that's really the only difference between their current or age-similar values. It's a big one, but not big enough to justify both of those statements being true.

 

Castro's bat is also viewed in a much brighter light going forward is it not?

[Clem Fandango]

Andrus doesn't have the room for improvement to develop into a 20-20 hitter, though, and will likely remain a swifty, light hitting, slick fielding shortstop throughout the majority of his career.

 

Also, I agree Upton is overrated. I posted this back in August when SCS was going on about trading Castro for Upton or something:

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com//forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=61227&p=2841767&hilit=justin+upton#p2841767

 

Also, if you want to see some pretty hilarious comments made by folks about Mike Trout back in 2010, prepare for some lulz:

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com//forum/viewtopic.php?p=2530323#p2530323

[Guest]

Castro turns 23 next year and is signed through 2019. Andrus turns 25 next year and is signed through 2014. Of course there's going to be a chasm in their trade values. If you want to nitpick the difference as to whether that difference is quite worth an exact sequence of players, go for it I suppose. There's no gotcha finding here, they are in different leagues in terms of value to their club.

I was looking at seasonal ages where there's only 1 year difference - the extra half year means something, but for baseball purposes they are one year apart.

 

To this point in their careers, Andrus has a better K rate, a better (much better at times) walk rate and has been a much more consistently great defender. Castro has much better power projection than Elvis.

 

In fact, Castro's best fWAR would place third in Andrus' career and only 0.1 WAR ahead of being his fourth best.

 

Their first season was at age 20:

 

3.4, 2.0, 4.4, 4.2: Andrus

2.3, 3.5, 3.3: Castro

 

So, yes, Castro is a year (and a half) younger and has a much better contract situation. Andrus has been the better player through the same ages. Castro is the more valuable player, but people are really underestimating Andrus in this thread.

[Guest]

Andrus is 2 years from free agency. Castro pre-extension was 4 years from FA, and currently is 7 years from free agency.

And that's really the only difference between their current or age-similar values. It's a big one, but not big enough to justify both of those statements being true.

 

Castro's bat is also viewed in a much brighter light going forward is it not?

Do you really want me to get into "projections"? :)

[SouthSideRyan]

Andrus reminds me of a young Francisco Cabrera

[davell]

Castro isn't getting dealt. If I'm Texas, I'm trying to deal Andrus to the Cards for 2 of Miller/Martinez/Rosenthal and Wong. As far as Castro's value vs Andrus? Castro has much more and it not even discussion worthy, in my mind.

[Sammy Sofa]

Also, if you want to see some pretty hilarious comments made by folks about Mike Trout back in 2010, prepare for some lulz:

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com//forum/viewtopic.php?p=2530323#p2530323

 

That depressed me because it made me long for awesome Soto.

[davell]

Levine said on Talkin' Baseball he expects the Cubs to do a big young players for young players swap.

[Little Slide Rooter]

It's been a while since I've been brutally mocked for building a team, so I figured it's time. Anyway, you show me Josh Hamilton for something like 4/75-80 or 5/90-95 as well as a starting pitcher along the lines of James Shields or Brett Anderson who can be acquired without mortgaging the farm, and I'll show you a strong contender for the next 3-5 years, until the new breed start rolling in. I know that Hamilton has been asking for 7 years, but if nobody is willing to give it to him, I'd happily take him at 4-5 years. That fills our two gaping holes, a legit 3 hitter and anther front endish starter.

 

That gives us:

 

CF/RF Jackson/Sappelt (trade DeJesus)

SS Castro

CF/RF Hamilton

1B Rizzo (obviously we split up Hamilton and Rizzo vs. lefties)

LF Soriano

3B Ian Stewart (big X factor)

C Castill0

2B Barney

 

Rotation Garza, Shields/Anderson, Shark, Baker, Wood.

Bullpen Marmol, low risk FA or the Japanese fellow, Russell, Beliveau, 3 of Dolis/Putnam/Gutierrez/Bowden/Hatley/Chapman

Vizcaino & Cabrera in AAA as starters

Bench: Navarro, Jackson/Sappelt, Watkins, Valbuena, Campana/LaHair.

 

Obviously, Hamilton is the key, but assuming he's looking for 4-5 years, I see no reason why we can't spend big on him instead of saving our pennies in a Ragu jar. Extend one of Garza or Shields/Anderson. Maybe both depending on cost. With Marmol, Soriano,and DeJesus freeing up around 30 MM in the next 2 years, I don't see why we can't.

[Guest]

The notoriously conservative Fangraphs crowdsourcing estimate has Hamilton getting 5/100. You're probably looking at 6/110 to get him, and that's if someone doesn't decide to go nuts and give him whatever it takes to sign at that moment.

 

EDIT: And while I know this thread is more for our preferences and not necessarily what the Front Office will do, I have to say that I think there's no chance they'll pursue Hamilton. Too many years, too many dollars, too much injury, character, and perfromance risk, and most importantly, 32 years old this coming season.

[XZero771679666304]

The notoriously conservative Fangraphs crowdsourcing estimate has Hamilton getting 5/100. You're probably looking at 6/110 to get him, and that's if someone doesn't decide to go nuts and give him whatever it takes to sign at that moment.

 

EDIT: And while I know this thread is more for our preferences and not necessarily what the Front Office will do, I have to say that I think there's no chance they'll pursue Hamilton. Too many years, too many dollars, too much injury, character, and perfromance risk, and most importantly, 32 years old this coming season.

 

The performance risk, injury risk and age are the key factors when it comes to Hamilton, particularly the latter two. He has too much of a problem staying on the field to invest big money in him, and his age dictates those problems will likely get worse, not better. He's a risk that a big budget team looking to win big in the next year or two might be justified in taking, but he's got "buyer beware" written all over him.

[Post Count Padder]

Dayton Moore said he'd listen on his young bats in order to upgrade the rotation. That includes Moustakas, Hosmer, Gordon and Wil Myers.

 

If only Garza were healthy enough, I would love to somehow get Myers.

[XZero771679666304]

Dayton Moore said he'd listen on his young bats in order to upgrade the rotation. That includes Moustakas, Hosmer, Gordon and Wil Myers.

 

If only Garza were healthy enough, I would love to somehow get Myers.

 

 

I'm pretty sure he wouldn't give up Myers for one year (or less) of Garza. I know I wouldn't.

[Guest]

Anyone have an idea of how Hosmer looked in the OF during his stint out there this season? He'd be a buy-low candidate.