Source: Castro Agrees to 7/60M Extension (Option Year: 16M)

[Sammy Sofa]

what has castro's walk rate been since his slump started? when he was hitting early in the season he wasn't walking at all, but he seems to be walking a decent amount since around the time his slump started.

 

i think the cubs fired jaramillo and started really forcing castro to work on his patience,and right now he's all out of sorts. today he took a meatball right down the middle for a called 3rd strike and kind of just stood there, like he couldn't believe it.

Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip)

Castro's previous 72 games: 1.9% BB, 17.0% K, .304/.317/.445 (.347 babip)

 

honestly, a .310 babip makes that a great line; i actually feel much better about his offense going forward now than i did when he was flailing at everything but hitting .300

 

Excellent.

[Guest]

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

 

Largely unchanged.

What percentage did his walk rate decrease?

 

As of this moment, 0.7% from last year.

What percentage reduction is that?

[Productive Outs]

I think it is wise to look at Castro's splits this year, particularly when discussing his walk rate. The month of May was awful when it came to his walk rate: 1.7%. I've never been a fan of the whole "hey, you take x out, and his numbers look like y!" methodology, but I think it's a fair thought process when a particular time frame is a total outlier. Since May, his walk rates are: 4.3%, 5.8% and 8.8% (34 PA). Yes, his walk rate is still 4%, but when look at younger players, it is important to identify in-season trends. According to FanGraphs, walk rates are reliable after 200 PA. Since June 1st, Castro has a walk rate of 5.5% (254 PA).

 

His LD% is down his last 140 PA or so, but that is just variance in my opinion. It is likely he will "get hot" and his LD%/BABIP will rebound.

 

edit: thanks sneakyp

[Guest]

I think it is wise to look at Castro's splits this year, particularly when discussing his walk rate. The month of May was awful when it came to his walk rate: 1.7%. I've never been a fan of the whole "hey, you take x out, and his numbers look like y!" methodology, but I think it's a fair thought process when a particular time frame is a total outlier. Since May, his walk rates are: 4.3%, 5.8% and 8.8% (34 PA). Yes, his walk rate is still 4%, but when look at younger players, it is important to identify in-season trends. According to FanGraphs, walk rates are reliable after 200 PA. Since June 1st, Castro has a walk rate of 5.5% (254 PA).

 

His LD% is down his last 140 PA or so, but that is just variance in my opinion. It is likely he will "get hot" and his LD%/BABIP will rebound.

It was lousy longer than it's been good. You can't use the 200PA stabilization rule here.

[Productive Outs]

I think it is wise to look at Castro's splits this year, particularly when discussing his walk rate. The month of May was awful when it came to his walk rate: 1.7%. I've never been a fan of the whole "hey, you take x out, and his numbers look like y!" methodology, but I think it's a fair thought process when a particular time frame is a total outlier. Since May, his walk rates are: 4.3%, 5.8% and 8.8% (34 PA). Yes, his walk rate is still 4%, but when look at younger players, it is important to identify in-season trends. According to FanGraphs, walk rates are reliable after 200 PA. Since June 1st, Castro has a walk rate of 5.5% (254 PA).

 

His LD% is down his last 140 PA or so, but that is just variance in my opinion. It is likely he will "get hot" and his LD%/BABIP will rebound.

It was lousy longer than it's been good. You can't use the 200PA stabilization rule here.

 

I believe your math is a bit off, Tim.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Very late joining this conversation, but when Tim was talking about the home runs going up but the doubles going down, he also didn't note that Castro already has eight triples. That's one off his career high. He had 39 extra base hits in 2010 and 55 last year. He's at 34 this season with around 50 games remaining.

 

By average, he should get 15 more extra base hits this season, which would put him at 49. This is if I'm doing all my math correct, and I did flunk the subject multiple times in high school.

 

All that said, when looking at the full context and seeing where he should be at by the end of the season with XBH's, Castro is pretty much in line with what he's done slugging wise. I'll be more than happy to take more home runs and triples at the expense of some doubles.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I'd also agree with Nuts that Castro passes the eye test as a better base runner this season. Heck, maybe that's why he almost has tied his career high with triples. Who knows.

[illiniguy]

what has castro's walk rate been since his slump started? when he was hitting early in the season he wasn't walking at all, but he seems to be walking a decent amount since around the time his slump started.

 

i think the cubs fired jaramillo and started really forcing castro to work on his patience,and right now he's all out of sorts. today he took a meatball right down the middle for a called 3rd strike and kind of just stood there, like he couldn't believe it.

Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip)

Castro's previous 72 games: 1.9% BB, 17.0% K, .304/.317/.445 (.347 babip)

 

honestly, a .310 babip makes that a great line; i actually feel much better about his offense going forward now than i did when he was flailing at everything but hitting .300

I actually feel a lot better about Starlin after reading this. Thanks for posting.

[Cubbie Swagger]

Haha.

 

I guess we need to clarify what exactly a "franchise player" is. If you build your team around someone who has an OPS of .800-.850, you are FUCKED. If you have a team where your SS has an OPS of .800-.850, and you have other players on the roster that are better than him offensively, then that sounds like a good start to a winning team.

 

All I'm saying is this: Castro is really good for the position that he plays, but that doesn't mean he needs to be the centerpiece of our offense and hit 3rd in our lineup forever. I really feel like I'm not being all that unreasonable here.

[illiniguy]

I love how anyone would think an .850 ops SS would be low side of anyone's projection. An .850 ops SS is a freaking stud.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

All I'm saying is this: Castro is really good for the position that he plays, but that doesn't mean he needs to be the centerpiece of our offense and hit 3rd in our lineup forever. I really feel like I'm not being all that unreasonable here.

 

Nope. I totally agree with this. Castro can't be the Cubs' best hitter if they want to get where we want them to go. I'd already say with the addition of Rizzo, he's our second best now. When he's our fourth best, that's when things get really fun.

[Sammy Sofa]

A franchise player is a really, really valuable player. An excellent SS is a really, really valuable player.

[SouthSideRyan]

Since we're contemplating Starlin's HOF-worthiness, were people freaking out when ARod's OPS dropped 200 points from his age 20 season to his age 21 season? Granted, we're talking about going from 1.045 to .846, but hey, let's live the dream!

 

No 21 isn't when a player should on his steepest incline, that's 22.

[SouthSideRyan]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

 

Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml

 

Any struggles can be directly attributed to the excessive use of 'r' in his first name.

 

Or the excessive use of coke in his free time.

[Guest]

how exactly do you "build around" a "franchise player"? why would you build your team differently based on how good one guy was?

 

really, this is the stuff people say when they have no real arguments to explain why they dislike a player/person.

[Tracer Bullet]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

 

Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml

 

Any struggles can be directly attributed to the excessive use of 'r' in his first name.

 

Or the excessive use of coke in his free time.

 

One man's excessive might be perfectly reasonable to Daryl Strawberry.

[dew1679666265]

Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip)

 

Out of curiosity, and because I have no earthly idea how to calculate it, what would his line be if his BABIP were normalized to something like .310 or so?

 

One thought about that too, his LD% is also way down in those 38 games so how relevant is it that the BABIP is so low since the LD% is also way down?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip)

 

Out of curiosity, and because I have no earthly idea how to calculate it, what would his line be if his BABIP were normalized to something like .310 or so?

 

One thought about that too, his LD% is also way down in those 38 games so how relevant is it that the BABIP is so low since the LD% is also way down?

 

Still very relevant. I'm not really convinced that LD% is all that predictive over small samples either.

[dew1679666265]

Still very relevant. I'm not really convinced that LD% is all that predictive over small samples either.

 

Is it that relevant, though? If he's not been hitting the ball hard for the past 38 games, is it a surprise that he's not had very many balls fall into play? I'm not really trying to make a statement here (I'm pretty torn on how I feel about Starlin's season overall), just wondering why LD% isn't relevant when part of sneaky's point was that his line would look a lot better with 100 points added onto his BABIP.

[USSoccer]

So I'm just checking this out now. Am I correct in summarizing the thread as:

 

-Tim thinks a relatively superficial, quasi-blip in Castro's development means he's at greater risk of flaming out, and has definitely downgraded his ceiling?

 

-Pretty much everyone else pointed out that the actual numbers, when properly looked at and put into context, do not really indicate this at all?

 

-An .850 OPS SS isn't something you build around?

 

This whole thing is just...yeesh. Starlin Castro is going to be a really, really valuable player for a really long time here, unless the anti-Hispanic brigade succeed in running him off before he makes it obvious to even the meatiest meatball that he's great.

[sneakypower]

Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip)

 

Out of curiosity, and because I have no earthly idea how to calculate it, what would his line be if his BABIP were normalized to something like .310 or so?

that'd just be 12 more hits dropping in play, making it roughly .290/.355/.450

 

I'm not really trying to make a statement here (I'm pretty torn on how I feel about Starlin's season overall), just wondering why LD% isn't relevant when part of sneaky's point was that his line would look a lot better with 100 points added onto his BABIP.

i'm not making an argument about his BIP luck during the stretch, but rather pointing out that if his Howson-era BB and K rates are indicative of a change in approach, he can now be much less reliant upon a high BABIP to be a very productive hitter

[dew1679666265]

that'd just be 12 more hits dropping in play, making it roughly .290/.355/.450

 

That's pretty awesome. Thanks.

 

i'm not making an argument about his BIP luck during the stretch, but rather pointing out that if his Howson-era BB and K rates are indicative of a change in approach, he can now be much less reliant upon a high BABIP to be a very productive hitter

 

Ah, I see now. The BB and K rates also jumped out at me as big improvements, which I think is a good long-term sign.

[Sammy Sofa]

Basically sneaky is now the King of NSBB.

[Guest]

So I'm just checking this out now. Am I correct in summarizing the thread as:

 

-Tim thinks a relatively superficial, quasi-blip in Castro's development means he's at greater risk of flaming out, and has definitely downgraded his ceiling?

I'll just answer your points for myself...

 

Any decline in performance in place of growth in a 22 year old diminishes the forecast of future value. Why anyone would argue this puzzles the hell out of me. Think of it this way - if a 22 year old prospect repeating a level in the minors had worse numbers than the previous year, we'd universally suggest that it lowers his projections for the future. THIS IS THE EXACT SAME THING.

 

Again, to repeat myself for the umpteenth time - this does not mean I don't value him as a player. He's still a key building block for the future and I still have great hopes for his future. His 50th percentile projection is still a really good player and someone to build around. His upside is still a HOF player. The only thing that has changed are the probabilities of achieving various levels of production in the future.

 

What gets me is that I cannot imagine how anyone can impartially look at a decline in performance and not adjust the future outlook accordingly.

 

-Pretty much everyone else pointed out that the actual numbers, when properly looked at and put into context, do not really indicate this at all?

 

Even if his season were on par with the past two years, a stagnation in growth would still adjust the forward projection. It isn't the end of the world. It doesn't mean I don't value him as a player. But ignoring the trends in the data is ludicrous. Even if nobody else wants to admit it, he's having a worse offensive season than in previous years. His walk rate was 16.2% higher last year. He is striking out 16% more often this season. You can comfort yourself by picking an arbitrary start point on those numbers to make them look as good as possible, but those are his season stats.

 

-An .850 OPS SS isn't something you build around?

 

I never said it wasn't, though I realize this was somebody else's wacky point.

 

This whole thing is just...yeesh. Starlin Castro is going to be a really, really valuable player for a really long time here, unless the anti-Hispanic brigade succeed in running him off before he makes it obvious to even the meatiest meatball that he's great.

Are you including me in the anti-Hispanic brigade?

[Guest]

Basically sneaky is now the King of NSBB.

You know, we as a group normally pick on people that choose arbitrary start dates in the middle of a season to make their numbers look as good as possible.