Source: Castro Agrees to 7/60M Extension (Option Year: 16M)

[Sammy Sofa]

"Prime years" are generally agreed to start, what, 24 or 25?

[sneakypower]

this discussion reminds me of all the idiotic overreactions Yankees fans and sportswriters had to Cano's .715 OPS age-25 season

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

how many had great seasons every year, with no hiccups?

[bukie]

this discussion reminds me of all the idiotic overreactions Yankees fans and sportswriters had to Cano's .715 OPS age-25 season

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

how many had great seasons every year, with no hiccups?

Barry Bonds? Although his age 24 season was .248/.351/.426.

 

Albert Pujols.

[Guest]

I think that's the main sticking point; that you're talking about him like this year has all but locked him in to "only" being "really good."

Then I'm not being very clear.

 

Forecasting is all about predicting probable outcomes based on all the information you have at hand. The most recent information has to be weighted most heavily (including whether there are significant causal factors at play).

 

Starlin taking an apparent step back in most important hitting categories significantly reduces his projections. Based on his performance history and age, he is still very likely to have a very good career and be really productive throughout his prime. But he is less likely to have a HOF-type career and it also increases his potential to flame relatively early.

[23sharks]

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

 

Largely unchanged.

 

I was hoping his walk rate would improve quite a bit this year, especially since Theo and Co preach OBP like they do.

He's definitely a free swinger, and I don't know if that is ever going to change much.

[davell]

Here's the thing, Tim: He's super talented. He's also got as good of a support group around him as he could possibly have. He's 22, certainly had a rough offseason, to say the least, and the constant losing has probably taken some out of him as well. Couple that with trying to make him a bit more selective and voila.....A struggling season in some aspects ensues. His upside hasn't changed, he's 22 and has had a TON thrown at him this year. He'll be fine, better than fine, and I honestly doubt you disagree with this.

So your projection for his performance in his prime wouldn't be adversely impacted by his season this year?

If I'm working for Fangraphs, then sure. If I follow one specific team very closely and realize how much he's gone through in the last year? Nope, not at all. My guess is he finishes this year in the mid-.280's, .750ish OPS and over 15 homers. Next year, I'll expect a solid jump too. He's the most important player in our organization, has tons of talent, and the FO understands this. He'll be better FOR going through this.

Edited August 10, 2012 by davell

[Guest]

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

 

Largely unchanged.

What percentage did his walk rate decrease?

[Sammy Sofa]

I think that's the main sticking point; that you're talking about him like this year has all but locked him in to "only" being "really good."

Then I'm not being very clear.

 

Forecasting is all about predicting probable outcomes based on all the information you have at hand. The most recent information has to be weighted most heavily (including whether there are significant causal factors at play).

 

Starlin taking an apparent step back in most important hitting categories significantly reduces his projections. Based on his performance history and age, he is still very likely to have a very good career and be really productive throughout his prime. But he is less likely to have a HOF-type career and it also increases his potential to flame relatively early.

 

Understood; I just don't place as much trust into the projections as you do, especially given his ability and who is running this team.

Edited August 10, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

this discussion reminds me of all the idiotic overreactions Yankees fans and sportswriters had to Cano's .715 OPS age-25 season

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

how many had great seasons every year, with no hiccups?

How do you define "great"?

 

Has Starlin had one yet?

[Guest]

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

 

Largely unchanged.

What percentage did his walk rate decrease?

 

As of this moment, 0.7% from last year.

[Guest]

what has castro's walk rate been since his slump started? when he was hitting early in the season he wasn't walking at all, but he seems to be walking a decent amount since around the time his slump started.

 

i think the cubs fired jaramillo and started really forcing castro to work on his patience,and right now he's all out of sorts. today he took a meatball right down the middle for a called 3rd strike and kind of just stood there, like he couldn't believe it.

[Cubbie Swagger]

Castro does not SUCK, but honestly, from the beginning, I haven't been as high on him as other people are. I'm totally fine with him being our everyday shortstop for a long time to come... but I also would not build my team around him. He's not a "franchise" player by any stretch. Lucky for him, he plays a position that isn't very demanding as far as slugging and OBP. If he can hit .300, steal bases, and post at least a .800-.850 OPS every year, along with plus defense, then I'll take him as my shortstop.

[bukie]

So as long as he can be a franchise player with plus defense at shortstop every year, you'll accept him, but he's not a franchise player?

[CubInOK]

I'll only accept Castro as my SS if he can be ARod in his prime.

[El Duderino]

If Castro can put up HOF SS numbers with plus defense, I'll consider him.

[CincyCubsFan]

Castro does not SUCK, but honestly, from the beginning, I haven't been as high on him as other people are. I'm totally fine with him being our everyday shortstop for a long time to come... but I also would not build my team around him. He's not a "franchise" player by any stretch. Lucky for him, he plays a position that isn't very demanding as far as slugging and OBP. If he can hit .300, steal bases, and post at least a .800-.850 OPS every year, along with plus defense, then I'll take him as my shortstop.

 

A shortstop who OPS's 850 with plus defense and base stealing abilities isn't a franchise player? Duly noted.

[Cubswin11]

Castro does not SUCK, but honestly, from the beginning, I haven't been as high on him as other people are. I'm totally fine with him being our everyday shortstop for a long time to come... but I also would not build my team around him. He's not a "franchise" player by any stretch. Lucky for him, he plays a position that isn't very demanding as far as slugging and OBP. If he can hit .300, steal bases, and post at least a .800-.850 OPS every year, along with plus defense, then I'll take him as my shortstop.

Ian Desmond is the only SS in all of baseball this year with an OPS between .800-.850 and it's at .825. The next closest are .781 by Reyes and Cabrera. So if Castro can settle in as a .800-.850 OPS then yes, he's a guy you build your team around as he'd be one of the best offensive SS in baseball.

[Sammy Sofa]

Castro does not SUCK, but honestly, from the beginning, I haven't been as high on him as other people are. I'm totally fine with him being our everyday shortstop for a long time to come... but I also would not build my team around him. He's not a "franchise" player by any stretch. Lucky for him, he plays a position that isn't very demanding as far as slugging and OBP. If he can hit .300, steal bases, and post at least a .800-.850 OPS every year, along with plus defense, then I'll take him as my shortstop.

 

Hey, at least your expectations are totally reasonable.

[Rizzo Smash]

Starlin Castro leads all shortstops in RBI's on the worst run scoring team in baseball. And this is a bad year for his standards. Starlin Castro, you suck.

[Sammy Sofa]

RBI's? Come on.

[Guest]

Castro does not SUCK, but honestly, from the beginning, I haven't been as high on him as other people are. I'm totally fine with him being our everyday shortstop for a long time to come... but I also would not build my team around him. He's not a "franchise" player by any stretch. Lucky for him, he plays a position that isn't very demanding as far as slugging and OBP. If he can hit .300, steal bases, and post at least a .800-.850 OPS every year, along with plus defense, then I'll take him as my shortstop.

 

if he puts up those numbers while playing great defense, he's one of the better players in the league

[Sammy Sofa]

Hey, if he can be at least a 6-7 WAR player, OK, MAYBE I'll like him.

[Rizzo Smash]

RBI's? Come on.

Yes RBI's. He drives in runs on the worst run scoring team in baseball. The only stat he's struggling with this year is OBP and he had a .340 OBP last year at age 21. Not worried about it. His defense has improved and while his offense has struggled, he's proven in the past that he's a really good hitter. And the power will continue to come. He has 25 home run potential in his prime.

[Sammy Sofa]

The rest is cool, but RBI's as a stat suck butt.

[sneakypower]

what has castro's walk rate been since his slump started? when he was hitting early in the season he wasn't walking at all, but he seems to be walking a decent amount since around the time his slump started.

 

i think the cubs fired jaramillo and started really forcing castro to work on his patience,and right now he's all out of sorts. today he took a meatball right down the middle for a called 3rd strike and kind of just stood there, like he couldn't believe it.

Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip)

Castro's previous 72 games: 1.9% BB, 17.0% K, .304/.317/.445 (.347 babip)

 

honestly, a .310 babip makes that a great line; i actually feel much better about his offense going forward now than i did when he was flailing at everything but hitting .300