Source: Castro Agrees to 7/60M Extension (Option Year: 16M)

[sneakypower]

this discussion reminds me of all the idiotic overreactions Yankees fans and sportswriters had to Cano's .715 OPS age-25 season

[davell]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

[Guest]

Am I happy with Castro's offensive progression? Not particularly, but there's also a large gap between "I'm not overly happy nor overly concerned" and the "worst it's ever been" and "disastrous" rhetoric of the last page or so. Personally, I think Castro will get hot by year's end and the hand-wringing over minor increases or decreases in his numbers will be for naught.

Disastrous may have been over the top.

 

"Worst it has ever been" is entirely accurate. And your counter to it that it was slump driven was incorrect if you look up the monthly splits.

 

"Worst it has ever been" is sensationalist and counter-productive to having a point taken seriously. His K-rate and walk rate are both less than 2% different than previous seasons. The slump comment was admittedly poorly worded, the larger point is if he had a more normal BABIP then his overall numbers would make it even more obvious than it already is that this is an over-analysis/nitpick of his performance.

[Guest]

My argument is that it significantly lowers what we should be projecting out of him in his prime compared to what we could project at the start of the season.

 

That's a bad thing.

 

Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about.

Absolutely. That's why I'd still say he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, Castro in the game today seems to be trying to singlehandedly destroy the support he's getting in regards to baserunning and defense.

[Sammy Sofa]

My argument is that it significantly lowers what we should be projecting out of him in his prime compared to what we could project at the start of the season.

 

That's a bad thing.

 

Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about.

Absolutely. That's why I'd still say he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime.

 

Or a great one. It just seems like you're placing way too much weight on his struggles this year.

[Guest]

this discussion reminds me of all the idiotic overreactions Yankees fans and sportswriters had to Cano's .715 OPS age-25 season

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

[Guest]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

[Guest]

Well, Castro in the game today seems to be trying to singlehandedly destroy the support he's getting in regards to baserunning and defense.

Wow - the whole gang with errors: Vitters, Castro, Jackson, Rizzo and Castillo.

[Sammy Sofa]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

[Guest]

Am I happy with Castro's offensive progression? Not particularly, but there's also a large gap between "I'm not overly happy nor overly concerned" and the "worst it's ever been" and "disastrous" rhetoric of the last page or so. Personally, I think Castro will get hot by year's end and the hand-wringing over minor increases or decreases in his numbers will be for naught.

Disastrous may have been over the top.

 

"Worst it has ever been" is entirely accurate. And your counter to it that it was slump driven was incorrect if you look up the monthly splits.

 

"Worst it has ever been" is sensationalist and counter-productive to having a point taken seriously. His K-rate and walk rate are both less than 2% different than previous seasons. The slump comment was admittedly poorly worded, the larger point is if he had a more normal BABIP then his overall numbers would make it even more obvious than it already is that this is an over-analysis/nitpick of his performance.

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

[23sharks]

Well, Castro in the game today seems to be trying to singlehandedly destroy the support he's getting in regards to baserunning and defense.

 

LOL. Yeah, it certainly appears that way.

[bukie]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

Started out as a top 5 player at their position for two years, had a hiccup where they were only slightly above average at their position, and the never recovered?

 

At a position like SS? Garry Templeton is the closest example I can think of, and even he was productive for 5-7 years before dropping off.

 

Edgar Renteria had a fairly short period of being near the best at his position as well, but it was never so early on in his career.

[Guest]

My argument is that it significantly lowers what we should be projecting out of him in his prime compared to what we could project at the start of the season.

 

That's a bad thing.

 

Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about.

Absolutely. That's why I'd still say he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime.

 

Or a great one. It just seems like you're placing way too much weight on his struggles this year.

Yes, it is entirely possible that he still becomes a HOF player. But it is significantly less likely after taking a couple steps back this year instead of taking steps forward.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

 

Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml

[Tracer Bullet]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

If you plotted his reasonable outcomes (on offense) for this year, his performance has been way towards the bottom end of that distribution. What word would you like to describe one of the least desirable outcomes?

 

Of course I am. You asked people for their opinions but told them to keep in mind something that might bias them toward the conclusion you wanted them to draw.

 

And I would totally post a taxi driver clip if I weren't on my mobile.

[Guest]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

Quite a few. Across the spectrum.

[Tracer Bullet]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

 

Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml

 

Any struggles can be directly attributed to the excessive use of 'r' in his first name.

[davell]

Here's the thing, Tim: He's super talented. He's also got as good of a support group around him as he could possibly have. He's 22, certainly had a rough offseason, to say the least, and the constant losing has probably taken some out of him as well. Couple that with trying to make him a bit more selective and voila.....A struggling season in some aspects ensues. His upside hasn't changed, he's 22 and has had a TON thrown at him this year. He'll be fine, better than fine, and I honestly doubt you disagree with this.

[Guest]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

Started out as a top 5 player at their position for two years, had a hiccup where they were only slightly above average at their position, and the never recovered?

 

At a position like SS? Garry Templeton is the closest example I can think of, and even he was productive for 5-7 years before dropping off.

 

Edgar Renteria had a fairly short period of being near the best at his position as well, but it was never so early on in his career.

1) If you are going to limit the examples to those particular criteria, there won't be a lot of people to list on either side of the argument.

 

2) For the love of repetition, I'm not saying Castro is going to go into the toilet next year. I'm still saying he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime.

[Sammy Sofa]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

 

How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?

 

Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml

 

Yeah, that's bugged me, too.

[Guest]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

If you plotted his reasonable outcomes (on offense) for this year, his performance has been way towards the bottom end of that distribution. What word would you like to describe one of the least desirable outcomes?

 

Of course I am. You asked people for their opinions but told them to keep in mind something that might bias them toward the conclusion you wanted them to draw.

 

And I would totally post a taxi driver clip if I weren't on my mobile.

Now I see where you were going with that. Gotcha.

[Sammy Sofa]

Matt Kemp put up a .249/.310/.450 season at 25 with 17 more K's than he ever had. He kind of bounced back.

Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered?

 

There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable.

Started out as a top 5 player at their position for two years, had a hiccup where they were only slightly above average at their position, and the never recovered?

 

At a position like SS? Garry Templeton is the closest example I can think of, and even he was productive for 5-7 years before dropping off.

 

Edgar Renteria had a fairly short period of being near the best at his position as well, but it was never so early on in his career.

1) If you are going to limit the examples to those particular criteria, there won't be a lot of people to list on either side of the argument.

 

2) For the love of repetition, I'm not saying Castro is going to go into the toilet next year. I'm still saying he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime.

 

I think that's the main sticking point; that you're talking about him like this year has all but locked him in to "only" being "really good."

[Guest]

Here's the thing, Tim: He's super talented. He's also got as good of a support group around him as he could possibly have. He's 22, certainly had a rough offseason, to say the least, and the constant losing has probably taken some out of him as well. Couple that with trying to make him a bit more selective and voila.....A struggling season in some aspects ensues. His upside hasn't changed, he's 22 and has had a TON thrown at him this year. He'll be fine, better than fine, and I honestly doubt you disagree with this.

So your projection for his performance in his prime wouldn't be adversely impacted by his season this year?

[Guest]

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

 

Largely unchanged.