Source: Castro Agrees to 7/60M Extension (Option Year: 16M)

[Guest]

I'm with ya Tim.

Now I'm feeling bad.

[Guest]

Let me put it this way: Is anyone happy with the offensive progression Castro has made this year? Keep in mind - the fact that he's 22 means that he really should be in the steepest part of his incline in performance right now instead of decline.

[Tracer Bullet]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

[Sammy Sofa]

The sponsor on Castro's BR page sums it up very poetically:

 

If you don't like Starlin Castro, go step on a land mine.

[23sharks]

Fun Facts:

 

- Starlin's power hasn't increased all that much as he's given away his gains in HR by the reduction in doubles (.125 IsoP vs .141)

 

- he only has two SB since May (at a rate of 2 for 7)

 

- his strikeout rate is the highest it has ever been

 

- his walk totals are the lowest they've ever been

 

When talking about his progression this year, I'm not sure how fair it is to talk about his increased power or speed.

 

I'm not trolling here, but if you remove the defensive gains this season has been as disastrous as it gets for Starlin. It also raises legitimate concerns about his progression.

 

Now, not to sound all gloomy - As I've noted before, the difference we're looking at is whether he'll be a really good player in his prime or if he's on a HOF track.

 

Tim, people are going to see what they want to see, even when you point out facts like this.....I made a comment about Castro not showing any improvement at all in his patience, and had people jump on me for it. Whatever.

I wouldn't say it's been a disaster, but it is definitely a concern, which is what I tried to point out as well.

BTW, I'm not a Starlin basher...I actually like him a lot and hope he continues to develop.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, only Tim is pointing out facts.

[C.C.]

I agree Tim. I was attacked all because I was alarmed at Jackson K rate.

[Guest]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

If you plotted his reasonable outcomes (on offense) for this year, his performance has been way towards the bottom end of that distribution. What word would you like to describe one of the least desirable outcomes?

[Sammy Sofa]

Since we're contemplating Starlin's HOF-worthiness, were people freaking out when ARod's OPS dropped 200 points from his age 20 season to his age 21 season? Granted, we're talking about going from 1.045 to .846, but hey, let's live the dream!

[jersey cubs fan]

Keep in mind - the fact that he's 22 means that he really should be in the steepest part of his incline in performance right now instead of decline.

 

What?

[Sammy Sofa]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous.

[Guest]

Am I happy with Castro's offensive progression? Not particularly, but there's also a large gap between "I'm not overly happy nor overly concerned" and the "worst it's ever been" and "disastrous" rhetoric of the last page or so. Personally, I think Castro will get hot by year's end and the hand-wringing over minor increases or decreases in his numbers will be for naught.

[Guest]

btw - can anyone defend that he's actually been a better base stealer this year or can people drop using that as a reason why he's better this season?

 

22/31 looks better to me than 17/27.

[Guest]

Keep in mind - the fact that he's 22 means that he really should be in the steepest part of his incline in performance right now instead of decline.

 

What?

Which part don't you understand? That he's declined in his offensive production this year or the shape of the performance curve?

[Sammy Sofa]

Am I happy with Castro's offensive progression? Not particularly, but there's also a large gap between "I'm not overly happy nor overly concerned" and the "worst it's ever been" and "disastrous" rhetoric of the last page or so. Personally, I think Castro will get hot by year's end and the hand-wringing over minor increases or decreases in his numbers will be for naught.

 

Pretty much this. It's simply far, far too early in his career and in this slump for the histrionics of being worried about him or declaring things a disaster.

[Guest]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous.

How well do you understand forecasting?

 

btw - Just because ARod had a blip in his improvement doesn't mean it's a bad thing when it happens to someone else.

[Sammy Sofa]

btw - can anyone defend that he's actually been a better base stealer this year or can people drop using that as a reason why he's better this season?

 

22/31 looks better to me than 17/27.

 

I'd argue he's an overall better baserunner this year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous.

How well do you understand forecasting?

 

btw - Just because ARod had a blip in his improvement doesn't mean it's a bad thing when it happens to someone else.

 

So what's your specific concern? What is your reason for thinking that this is indicative of some kind of continuing trend or career definition?

[Guest]

Am I happy with Castro's offensive progression? Not particularly, but there's also a large gap between "I'm not overly happy nor overly concerned" and the "worst it's ever been" and "disastrous" rhetoric of the last page or so. Personally, I think Castro will get hot by year's end and the hand-wringing over minor increases or decreases in his numbers will be for naught.

Disastrous may have been over the top.

 

"Worst it has ever been" is entirely accurate. And your counter to it that it was slump driven was incorrect if you look up the monthly splits.

[Guest]

btw - can anyone defend that he's actually been a better base stealer this year or can people drop using that as a reason why he's better this season?

 

22/31 looks better to me than 17/27.

 

I'd argue he's an overall better baserunner this year.

Why?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fun Facts:

 

- Starlin's power hasn't increased all that much as he's given away his gains in HR by the reduction in doubles (.125 IsoP vs .141)

 

HR power is generally more "real" than 2b power. 2b power does not normalize over even a very large number of at-bats. I'll give up doubles for an equal-value amount of home runs any day. It's better long-term for a player's projection.

[Sammy Sofa]

btw - can anyone defend that he's actually been a better base stealer this year or can people drop using that as a reason why he's better this season?

 

22/31 looks better to me than 17/27.

 

I'd argue he's an overall better baserunner this year.

Why?

 

Totally unscientific eye test. The Cubs as a whole have improved in this area and I'm lumping him into that because of his ability.

[Guest]

Haha. Tell me how you feel about him. Keep in mind why you should feel he's done poorly.

Are you talking to me?

 

I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track.

 

This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous.

How well do you understand forecasting?

 

btw - Just because ARod had a blip in his improvement doesn't mean it's a bad thing when it happens to someone else.

 

So what's your specific concern? What is your reason for thinking that this is indicative of some kind of continuing trend or career definition?

My argument is that it significantly lowers what we should be projecting out of him in his prime compared to what we could project at the start of the season.

 

That's a bad thing.

[Sammy Sofa]

My argument is that it significantly lowers what we should be projecting out of him in his prime compared to what we could project at the start of the season.

 

That's a bad thing.

 

Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about.

[Guest]

Fun Facts:

 

- Starlin's power hasn't increased all that much as he's given away his gains in HR by the reduction in doubles (.125 IsoP vs .141)

 

HR power is generally more "real" than 2b power. 2b power does not normalize over even a very large number of at-bats. I'll give up doubles for an equal-value amount of home runs any day. It's better long-term for a player's projection.

He is hitting a similar % of fly balls, so that signals that there's probably not a significant change in approach. Hopefully, the near doubling in HR/FB rate is due to increased strength instead of random fluctuation.