Source: Castro Agrees to 7/60M Extension (Option Year: 16M)

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not necessarily all that arbitrary based on the idea that this can be attributed to the new FO taking a different approach to him (personally I don't think it's much coincidence that you saw this change and then Jaramillio was gone shortly thereafter), but whatever.

[Sammy Sofa]

Think of it this way - if a 22 year old prospect repeating a level in the minors had worse numbers than the previous year, we'd universally suggest that it lowers his projections for the future. THIS IS THE EXACT SAME THING.

 

What? No.

[Guest]

It's not necessarily all that arbitrary based on the idea that this can be attributed to the new FO taking a different approach to him (personally I don't think it's much coincidence that you saw this change and then Jaramillio was gone shortly thereafter), but whatever.

You don't think it was mentioned to him in ST? Really?

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not necessarily all that arbitrary based on the idea that this can be attributed to the new FO taking a different approach to him (personally I don't think it's much coincidence that you saw this change and then Jaramillio was gone shortly thereafter), but whatever.

You don't think it was mentioned to him in ST? Really?

 

I have no idea; I'm simply presenting my reasoning as to why I think he's put up the performance he has this year vs. the last two seasons. I'm still curious as to what you think the reason(s) might be instead of just hearing yet again about how his projections are going to take a hit if he doesn't turn it around.

[Guest]

It's not necessarily all that arbitrary based on the idea that this can be attributed to the new FO taking a different approach to him (personally I don't think it's much coincidence that you saw this change and then Jaramillio was gone shortly thereafter), but whatever.

You don't think it was mentioned to him in ST? Really?

 

I have no idea; I'm simply presenting my reasoning as to why I think he's put up the performance he has this year vs. the last two seasons. I'm still curious as to what you think the reason(s) might be instead of just hearing yet again about how his projections are going to take a hit if he doesn't turn it around.

Nobody has asked, so I haven't given any thoughts on the why part.

 

Is your implied question about the numbers for the season or for the first part of the season vs the last 250 PA?

[Sammy Sofa]

Either.

[sneakypower]

You know, we as a group normally pick on people that choose arbitrary start dates in the middle of a season to make their numbers look as good as possible.

i brought up his (aforementioned) current slump, to make his numbers look as good as possible?

[davell]

I have a feeling(and as much as I have been all for trading Garza, I'd hate the idea on Starlin) that we'll see plenty of Starlin rumors over the offseason. Probably media(Kaplan leading the way) bringing up tons of offers and [expletive].

[Little Slide Rooter]

This thread didn't waste much time going from stupid to depressing.

[Guest]

You know, we as a group normally pick on people that choose arbitrary start dates in the middle of a season to make their numbers look as good as possible.

i brought up his (aforementioned) current slump, to make his numbers look as good as possible?

yes. You picked an arbitrary point in time to make his BB & K numbers as good as possible. Are you denying that?

[Sosa21MVP]

I've been under the impression that Starlin's current slump started about the time the Cubs made the hitting coach change and as such, I have chosen not to freak out about it. Based on this thread, apparently that was the wrong approach. *sigh* :?

[Sammy Sofa]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

[Guest]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

Since I've not mentioned anything in my posts that are Ba related, I'm not sure why they have anything to do with it.

[Sosa21MVP]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

No, I've read all the posts. I just can't recall Tim being this negative before.

 

Okay that took a moment to sink in...I lumped myself in with WSR on something. OH....MY...GOD. #-o

[Sosa21MVP]

For me the conundrum is whether or not I should be more concerned about Starlin's offensive struggles or not. I do agree he has made strides in terms of fielding skill and base-running ability (whether both of those things are quantifiable in terms of stats, I am not certain). I've generally considered the hitting slump as a factor of a change of hitting coach AND approach but I also respect Tim's opinions on things and he seems to be putting a bit more weight into the concern about Starlin's decline this season.

[Guest]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

No, I've read all the posts. I just can't recall Tim being this negative before.

 

Okay that took a moment to sink in...I lumped myself in with WSR on something. OH....MY...GOD. #-o

It's been a long week. :)

 

I know I was too dramatic in my phrasing in the initial posts in the thread, but I stand by the logic of what I've said. Starlin is a good player now and is highly likely to be a really good player throughout his prime.

 

But he will need to seriously step up his production down the stretch to avoid having this season be a step backwards offensively. I'm fine with it if that is the cost of adjusting his approach. But until those results are seen his projections have to be taken down a notch from where the were previously.

[Sosa21MVP]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

No, I've read all the posts. I just can't recall Tim being this negative before.

 

Okay that took a moment to sink in...I lumped myself in with WSR on something. OH....MY...GOD. #-o

It's been a long week. :)

 

I know I was too dramatic in my phrasing in the initial posts in the thread, but I stand by the logic of what I've said. Starlin is a good player now and is highly likely to be a really good player throughout his prime.

 

But he will need to seriously step up his production down the stretch to avoid having this season be a step backwards offensively. I'm fine with it if that is the cost of adjusting his approach. But until those results are seen his projections have to be taken down a notch from where the were previously.

 

I don't like seeing Starlin struggle like this either and I hope he can finish the season strong. I just tend to think if this is truly a result of a change in approach, maybe it will take a full off-season plus 2013 spring training for Castro to come full circle back into being a new and improved Starlin Castro at the plate.

[bcl412]

Guy has been a valuable baseball player at the age of 22. I'm not worried about him, yet.

[WrigleyField 22]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

No, I've read all the posts. I just can't recall Tim being this negative before.

 

Okay that took a moment to sink in...I lumped myself in with WSR on something. OH....MY...GOD. #-o

It's been a long week. :)

 

I know I was too dramatic in my phrasing in the initial posts in the thread, but I stand by the logic of what I've said. Starlin is a good player now and is highly likely to be a really good player throughout his prime.

 

But he will need to seriously step up his production down the stretch to avoid having this season be a step backwards offensively. I'm fine with it if that is the cost of adjusting his approach. But until those results are seen his projections have to be taken down a notch from where the were previously.

Projection wise, why is an increased walk rate with a low babip a bad thing? I know you feel that the mid season cut off is arbitrary, but honestly the season cutoff mark is kind of arbitrary. If you look at his entire basis of work he had 1400ish straight plate appearances of a being a low walk high contact rate guy. Now hes had 200ish with a significant increase in walk rate while having that low babip. I think if that separation in approaches was between two seasons you wouldn't care and chalk up his crappy start to a season as bad luck bit encouraging because of the walk rate. It happened mid season instead, which isn't odd for high level athletes. Change doesn't have to occur in just the offseason.

 

 

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[USSoccer]

 

This whole thing is just...yeesh. Starlin Castro is going to be a really, really valuable player for a really long time here, unless the anti-Hispanic brigade succeed in running him off before he makes it obvious to even the meatiest meatball that he's great.

Are you including me in the anti-Hispanic brigade?

 

No, not at all. That's a @thekapman shot.

 

Maybe it's semantic, but I think you're overly worried about something that isn't really cause for concern yet.

[Guest]

When trying to specifically describe his year to year progression, what phrasing would you use to describe his 2012 walk and strikeout rates?

 

Largely unchanged.

What percentage did his walk rate decrease?

 

As of this moment, 0.7% from last year.

What percentage reduction is that?

 

Who cares? He had a 5% increase in his walk rate from yesterday's game alone. That should illustrate how silly it would be to put any stock in the relative changes in percentages that small.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

Is it possible to respect Tim's analysis as well as the analysis of those on the other side? Tim brings up very good points, so it's not just one of the usual doom and gloomers. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion, but that doesn't mean that the analysis should be dismissed.

[Sammy Sofa]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

Is it possible to respect Tim's analysis as well as the analysis of those on the other side? Tim brings up very good points, so it's not just one of the usual doom and gloomers. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion, but that doesn't mean that the analysis should be dismissed.

 

Didn't say it shouldn't be dismissed; just annoyed by your declaration that everything in the thread is "depressing." It's just seemingly the umpteenth example of you posting without reading everything.

[SABR Gamer]

Really? Unless you and WSR are only reading Tim's posts I'm not sure how you're coming to your conclusions.

 

Is it possible to respect Tim's analysis as well as the analysis of those on the other side? Tim brings up very good points, so it's not just one of the usual doom and gloomers. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion, but that doesn't mean that the analysis should be dismissed.

 

Didn't say it shouldn't be dismissed; just annoyed by your declaration that everything in the thread is "depressing." It's just seemingly the umpteenth example of you posting without reading everything.

 

Mojo, reading is hard for some people.

[sneakypower]

You know, we as a group normally pick on people that choose arbitrary start dates in the middle of a season to make their numbers look as good as possible.

i brought up his (aforementioned) current slump, to make his numbers look as good as possible?

yes. You picked an arbitrary point in time to make his BB & K numbers as good as possible. Are you denying that?

yes, dexter or whoever asked what his walk rate was like during his current slump, and i focused on that, and why there's some signs for real optimism there

 

but endpoints for "slumps" are always arbitrarily defined