Is Bryan LaHair legit?

[rawaction]

He only has 79 ABs in a Cubs uniform, and is 29 years old. But is it possible the Cubs can continue to get something of substance out of him for a few years? David Ortiz is a guy that didn't really take off as a player until his late 20s, and I'm sure there are plenty other examples. But that's not to say LaHair will or even needs to become Ortiz. But can he continue to produce 30 HR power and walk at a respectable rate? His career line is .272/.342/.428, which is largely influenced by 136 ABs in Seattle 4 years ago. If he can be counted on to produce an .830+ OPS, he could be a valuable piece to the Cubs for a handful of years, even if he moves to a corner OF spot for Rizzo. I think he's clearly more valuable to the Cubs (in LF after Soriano is gone) than he would be in a trade when Rizzo comes up. If he's truly capable, he'd give the Cubs solid production whereas they'd just be trading a 29-year old journeyman and wouldn't get very much in return, no matter how well he hits.

[Guest]

This was discussed a bit in the game thread yesterday too. To reiterate what I said there, my problem is that there's not much to gain beyond LaHair being a pleasant surprise as a placeholder. Even if LaHair has a great season, I don't think it'd be wise to just pencil him in for that production going forward. After that, you've got a 31 year old who's more likely to decline going forward. There's no long term benefit. Add in the fact that he's most likely not a good option at all in the OF, and it's even harder to find a place for him as a bench bat.

 

As far as positive comparisons go, I think Carlos Pena(who KingCubsFan brought up in the game thread) is a much better one than Ortiz, but even he was a 1st round pick/top prospect who took a while to mature, while LaHair was a 39th rounder who needed to repeat the PCL half a dozen times.

 

Ultimately, I think Micah Hoffpauir is the best comparison here. First baseman with okay numbers but little fanfare because of his age finally figures out the PCL after several tries, and then takes MLB pitchers by surprise when he gets MLB at bats before they figure him out. Remember, Hoffpauir had a .934 OPS in his first 80 MLB PAs, and even .879 the next April. After that, he got figured out, the extremely high batting average went away, and he wasn't a good offensive player anymore. I think that's what you'll see with LaHair, and his exorbitant K rate(especially so far this year) to go along with a very high AVG are probably the leading indicators.

[toonsterwu]

To be fair to Bryan, Micah always had a power stroke. LaHair, up to a couple years ago, was viewed as more of a gap power guy who could hit maybe 15-20 HR's. His power stroke has really developed in the last few years (at least, most scouting reports seem to buy that his power stroke has developed), so I think there's a greater chance that LaHair is a "late bloomer".

 

That said, I don't see a significant future for LaHair here either. If he is "legit", then it'd be better to deal him away for some assets. Considering he's still team-controlled salary wise, if he is "legit", I wouldn't rule out the idea that some smaller market team may deal something decent for him (obviously not talking about an elite return here, maybe a couple low level lottery tickets, or maybe a high floor upper level guy and a low level lottery ticket). If you don't get anything decent, then yeah, sure, kick him to LF for a few years and see how things flow. It's not as if we have corner OF/power options clearly knocking on the door.

 

But anything decent? I'm inclined to deal him, unless Rizzo is slumping/struggling.

[SABR Gamer]

I doubt he is legit, but to be fair, he has been hurt to begin the season so that could be impacting his ABs leading to more Ks.

 

Also, for what it's worth, during Micah's two big AAA years before he came up he walked 7% of the time and then 5.4% of the time, while LaHair's two big AAA years he walked 10.7% of the time and 11.5% of the time. He also K'd more, but that's a product of patience. My point is that LaHair has been proven to be a more patient hitter than Hoff was.

 

I still don't think there's much of a chance we have Carlos Pena 2 on our hands, but I think he's a bit better than the Jake Fox/Micah Hoffpauir's of the world, not that being that is much to say, but still.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think I've made this comparison more times than I can count, but 3 guys in recent years who either made it to the big leagues or had their breakout season at a later age are Ryan Ludwick, Casey McGehee, and Garett Jones. Each one had 2-3 good seasons and then faded away or fell off a cliff. I think that LaHair would have somewhat in common with Ludwick, as each was once a fairly touted but not quite top prospect who broke out late. McGehee pretty much exploded out of nowhere, and I don't know too much about the Garett Jones story.

 

LaHair definitely has the motivation to keep it up. He's a 29 year old rookie who plays a position in which the heir apparent is chomping at the bit, so he's going to have to prove that he's worth keeping around after Rizzo comes up.

 

Also, during LaHairs Mariners minor league career, he was a 15-25 HR guy and then declined into a 10-15 HR guy, and for the style of player he was, low OBP/ high SLG 1st baseman, he'd need to be a 30-35 HR guys to distinguish himself from the pack. Now he not only seems to have developed more power but he's taking more walks, though not quite an OBP machine so who knows. He also looks a lot better at the plate than Hoffpauir and his uppercut swing and Jake Foxes swing at everything and hope you can knock a ball into orbit here and there approach.

[davell]

In today's "team control" and "low salary vs. production" age of baseball, I think LaHair would become great trade bait, if he shows he can sustain an .800+ OPS for us. I really don't think his age will matter all that much, because teams are going to be looking at him as a low salary guy during the next couple of seasons, which just happen to be around his "peak" years, in all likelihood. Scouts and analysts both seem to think he IS a legit player and not another Hoffpauir type.

 

Would it be good for us to try him in LF? Sure. But, it's still not likely we're going to be contending next year, so would we REALLY want him out there for probably one season of his probable prime? I'd rather take a solid package for him at the ASB this year or over the offseason. And if he puts up over an .800 OPS, I really think we'll get one. Top 100 types? Nah, but I could see 2-3 top 15ish types from a decent system or a solid relief pitcher and a solid prospect or two. I think some people are selling short how important power production can be, especially when it's this cheap. His age doesn't matter here, a team contending now is going to look at him as a great option for a year or two, if he can remotely keep this up.

 

And hats off to theo for trying this out, because this is exactly what he meant by trying to gain more assets. LaHair wasn't one and now he may be on his way to becoming a valuable one very quickly.

[sneakypower]

i believe i read LaHair's a FA after the season

[El Duderino]

i believe i read LaHair's a FA after the season

 

If "the season" meant 2018.

[rawaction]

What's the chances of getting a "solid package" from him though? Contending teams typically don't need 1st basemen at the trade deadline, because they typically are getting above average production from the position in the first place. And I don't think there's even much of a chance for a Mark Derosa type package for him. Cheap production is valuable, but not as much from a 29-year old.

 

I guess my point is I don't see anyway trading LaHair makes the Cubs any better in the short or long-term. The best case scenario in a trade is to get a very raw, high upside prospect who all of a sudden figures it out and becomes a productive player. But that's clearly a long-shot. He doesn't have a contract that is going to prevent the Cubs from spending money. He's not talented enough to block a prospect from a spot in the lineup. But for a team re-building the farm system and may not be willing or able to pay a big time hitter the money he wants, LaHair for 2-3 years at respectable numbers just gives the Cubs 1 less spot to worry about in the short-term.

 

The Ryan Ludwick comparison is a good one. I think if LaHair can give you 3 years of Ludwick production from ages 29-31, then I'd be happy with that. And I think that's monumentally more than you can expect from anyone you get in a trade for him.

[sneakypower]

i believe i read LaHair's a FA after the season

 

If "the season" meant 2018.

ok, this might be what i had read, but a later response suggests we'll in fact get the six years of control if he's up all year (likely)

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/03/28/lukewarm-stove-wells-byrd-garza-lahair-soto-soriano-soler/comment-page-1/#comment-87151

[NewUserName]

I am not making this comparison, but I often get frustrated when Cardinal fans have David Freese on his way to Cooperstown. But I think there is enough evidence that Freese is a quality 3rd baseman if he can stay healthy. Point being is that there is quality major league potential out of late bloomers if a team is willing to give them a shot. Of course there is a big difference between a good defensive 3rd baseman and a first baseman. Michael Morse is another example. Not sure LaHair will be as good as these guys, but there is certainly reason to believe he could be a productive player for several years. Too bad he will be blocking someone we are hoping will be a very good player in the near future.

[Rob]

I think I've made this comparison more times than I can count, but 3 guys in recent years who either made it to the big leagues or had their breakout season at a later age are Ryan Ludwick, Casey McGehee, and Garett Jones. Each one had 2-3 good seasons and then faded away or fell off a cliff. I think that LaHair would have somewhat in common with Ludwick, as each was once a fairly touted but not quite top prospect who broke out late. McGehee pretty much exploded out of nowhere, and I don't know too much about the Garett Jones story.

 

LaHair definitely has the motivation to keep it up. He's a 29 year old rookie who plays a position in which the heir apparent is chomping at the bit, so he's going to have to prove that he's worth keeping around after Rizzo comes up.

 

Also, during LaHairs Mariners minor league career, he was a 15-25 HR guy and then declined into a 10-15 HR guy, and for the style of player he was, low OBP/ high SLG 1st baseman, he'd need to be a 30-35 HR guys to distinguish himself from the pack. Now he not only seems to have developed more power but he's taking more walks, though not quite an OBP machine so who knows. He also looks a lot better at the plate than Hoffpauir and his uppercut swing and Jake Foxes swing at everything and hope you can knock a ball into orbit here and there approach.

 

MAYBE WE CAN TRADE HIM FOR WADE DAVIS

[davell]

His value is to an AL team. Hopefully, we bring Rizzo up and at least give LaHair some games in LF. His value is in his bat obviously, but for an AL team, he could possibly rotate between 1B, DH, and LF. His value would then be determined by how much does having a league minimum salary, .800+ OPS guy in your lineup for 2 years matter, if you're a contender?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No.

[KaiserCesar]

It's been mentioned in this thread that his trade value would be reduced since most contending teams have 1B all locked up. One thing to remember is that there is an additional wild card spot in the playoffs, meaning more teams will be in the hunt and there is a greater chance a team will be looking for a first baseman (Derrek Lee and the Pirates in 2011 as an example). If some of these fringe contenders are also small to mid market teams, a cheap option like Bryan Lahair who could also be a stop gap for a year or two may be more attractive. Still, the haul won't be too great, but a trade partner won't be too hard to come by with the expansion of the playoffs.

[rawaction]

His value is to an AL team. Hopefully, we bring Rizzo up and at least give LaHair some games in LF. His value is in his bat obviously, but for an AL team, he could possibly rotate between 1B, DH, and LF. His value would then be determined by how much does having a league minimum salary, .800+ OPS guy in your lineup for 2 years matter, if you're a contender?

 

It's all fine and good to have value to an AL team. But what's the value the Cubs will get from trading him? Maybe getting another John Gaub? I just don't see anyway the Cubs get anything worth trading him for.

 

Too bad he will be blocking someone we are hoping will be a very good player in the near future.

 

Who? LaHair could play LF. Jackson can play CF. Rizzo 1B. Golden and Szczur are a ways away. And it's not like the Cubs would honestly let LaHair block one of these guys. If 32 year old LaHair is still on the team, it won't be much to cut his 750K salary or trade him then if he still has any value.

[Backtobanks]

I think that giving Lahair a decent shot at LF is a great idea (assuming we can dump Soriano). He's one of those guys that's probably more valuable to the Cubs than whatever you would get for him in a trade because I don't think he has very much trade value unless he's part of a package deal.

[rawaction]

It's been mentioned in this thread that his trade value would be reduced since most contending teams have 1B all locked up. One thing to remember is that there is an additional wild card spot in the playoffs, meaning more teams will be in the hunt and there is a greater chance a team will be looking for a first baseman (Derrek Lee and the Pirates in 2011 as an example). If some of these fringe contenders are also small to mid market teams, a cheap option like Bryan Lahair who could also be a stop gap for a year or two may be more attractive. Still, the haul won't be too great, but a trade partner won't be too hard to come by with the expansion of the playoffs.

 

Exactly. Derrek Lee was traded for a 23-year old AA player who if he makes it to the majors expects to be a platoon player. The Cubs got a guy that's 24 in low A, a 25 year old in high A, and a guy that had promise but has been cut already, for Lee in 2010. Is that really worth giving up cheap production if LaHair continues to hit?

[davell]

I can't believe I'm going to say this, but LaHair could easily have more value than Lee did at that point. Being a lefty could be a positive, hypothetically being able to play LF could be a positive, he'd be younger than Lee, probably be putting up better numbers, would be much cheaper, and wouldn't be a rental. I think a DeRo type package falls below what I think he'd be worth, if he's OPSing over .800 at the ASB.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think I've made this comparison more times than I can count, but 3 guys in recent years who either made it to the big leagues or had their breakout season at a later age are Ryan Ludwick, Casey McGehee, and Garett Jones. Each one had 2-3 good seasons and then faded away or fell off a cliff. I think that LaHair would have somewhat in common with Ludwick, as each was once a fairly touted but not quite top prospect who broke out late. McGehee pretty much exploded out of nowhere, and I don't know too much about the Garett Jones story.

 

LaHair definitely has the motivation to keep it up. He's a 29 year old rookie who plays a position in which the heir apparent is chomping at the bit, so he's going to have to prove that he's worth keeping around after Rizzo comes up.

 

Also, during LaHairs Mariners minor league career, he was a 15-25 HR guy and then declined into a 10-15 HR guy, and for the style of player he was, low OBP/ high SLG 1st baseman, he'd need to be a 30-35 HR guys to distinguish himself from the pack. Now he not only seems to have developed more power but he's taking more walks, though not quite an OBP machine so who knows. He also looks a lot better at the plate than Hoffpauir and his uppercut swing and Jake Foxes swing at everything and hope you can knock a ball into orbit here and there approach.

 

MAYBE WE CAN TRADE HIM FOR WADE DAVIS

 

It wouldnt be out the question if LaHair keeps hitting. We have Rizzo and they only have Pena for 1-2 years and Scott for 1 and they're system seems to hemorrhage pitching. Davis is only 26 and perhaps the change of scenery and more importantly division would do him good.I like your thinking even though the comment was clearly made in a mocking fashion.

[dew1679666265]

Exactly. Derrek Lee was traded for a 23-year old AA player who if he makes it to the majors expects to be a platoon player. The Cubs got a guy that's 24 in low A, a 25 year old in high A, and a guy that had promise but has been cut already, for Lee in 2010. Is that really worth giving up cheap production if LaHair continues to hit?

 

I guess my question is, at what point are we comfortable saying LaHair will be capable of hitting at the MLB level? If he keeps up an .830+ OPS pace until the ASB, is that enough to say with any level of certainty that that's the type of player he'll be, or is there still too much doubt that he's just on a prolonged hot streak? I'd hate to see us pass on getting even just marginal value for LaHair if he reverts back to AAAA journeyman in the second half of the season, but at the same time, I'd hate to give up a cheap hitter who can give us an .830+ OPS with at least average defense for a DLee type deal.

 

I do have to wonder, though, if three months of production is enough time to convince me that a guy who took 6 years to hit at a high level in AAA is now a good bet to hit at the major league level. Especially since his BABIPs as a Cub have been .375 last year and .556 so far this year.

[davell]

If he's producing like that at the ASB, you let the offers decide for you. A DLee package isn't enough to make me trade him. A package of a decent controllable major league reliever, a Chris Archer type upside guy from back when we acquired him and a top 10-12ish type from a system WOULD be enough to pull the trigger.

[dew1679666265]

If he's producing like that at the ASB, you let the offers decide for you. A DLee package isn't enough to make me trade him. A package of a decent controllable major league reliever, a Chris Archer type upside guy from back when we acquired him and a top 10-12ish type from a system WOULD be enough to pull the trigger.

 

I'd do a LaHair for Archer (when he was dealt to the Cubs) trade without a second thought at any point. I probably wouldn't do a DLee type deal for LaHair, but it'd still be tempting to go ahead and get something for him in case he did turn back into the AAAA guy he's been the past 6 years.

[SouthSideRyan]

i believe i read LaHair's a FA after the season

 

If "the season" meant 2018.

ok, this might be what i had read, but a later response suggests we'll in fact get the six years of control if he's up all year (likely)

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/03/28/lukewarm-stove-wells-byrd-garza-lahair-soto-soriano-soler/comment-page-1/#comment-87151

 

That would only apply if he was removed from the 40 man roster.

[rawaction]

Exactly. Derrek Lee was traded for a 23-year old AA player who if he makes it to the majors expects to be a platoon player. The Cubs got a guy that's 24 in low A, a 25 year old in high A, and a guy that had promise but has been cut already, for Lee in 2010. Is that really worth giving up cheap production if LaHair continues to hit?

 

I guess my question is, at what point are we comfortable saying LaHair will be capable of hitting at the MLB level? If he keeps up an .830+ OPS pace until the ASB, is that enough to say with any level of certainty that that's the type of player he'll be, or is there still too much doubt that he's just on a prolonged hot streak? I'd hate to see us pass on getting even just marginal value for LaHair if he reverts back to AAAA journeyman in the second half of the season, but at the same time, I'd hate to give up a cheap hitter who can give us an .830+ OPS with at least average defense for a DLee type deal.

 

I do have to wonder, though, if three months of production is enough time to convince me that a guy who took 6 years to hit at a high level in AAA is now a good bet to hit at the major league level. Especially since his BABIPs as a Cub have been .375 last year and .556 so far this year.

 

If you don't know that 3 months of good production means he's capable of hitting at the MLB level, then you are going to have a tough time convincing someone else that he is good enough to trade anyone of significance for.

 

The DLee trade is interesting. Because on one hand, DLee was a shell of his former self by the time he got traded from the Cubs, then again from the O's. And LaHair would almost certainly be putting up better numbers than Lee did if any team was even willing to trade for him. However, part of Lee's value came from the fact that he did have sustained good-to-elite production at some point in his career. He had playoff experience, WS rings, and played Gold Glove defense at points in his career. It's a lot easier for a team to justify giving up prospects for a guy who's "done it before" than it is for them to give up something for a 29-year old who is doing it for the first time.