Is Bryan LaHair legit?

[davearm2]

Considering how important the age related decline of first basemen was to you this offseason, I would think you'd need to be acutely aware that LaHair turns 30 this year when discussing their long term prospects.

Age related decline is a much more important consideration for guys getting $200M contracts than it is for guys that can be non-tendered pretty much whenever.

 

Age-related decline is a much more important consideration for guys who were NEVER EVER EVER GOOD until their 29th birthday.

That's not age related decline.

[javy knows my name]

Considering how important the age related decline of first basemen was to you this offseason, I would think you'd need to be acutely aware that LaHair turns 30 this year when discussing their long term prospects.

Age related decline is a much more important consideration for guys getting $200M contracts than it is for guys that can be non-tendered pretty much whenever.

 

Age-related decline is a much more important consideration for guys who were NEVER EVER EVER GOOD until their 29th birthday.

That's not age related decline.

 

Are you serious right now? If you believe any of the crap you spew about decline, you of all people should realize that LaHair is a good bet to decline almost immediately after his likely one good season in the bigs. Is there more obvious a "short term player?" I really can't think of one, but that won't stop you from arguing about it.

[davearm2]

Considering how important the age related decline of first basemen was to you this offseason, I would think you'd need to be acutely aware that LaHair turns 30 this year when discussing their long term prospects.

Age related decline is a much more important consideration for guys getting $200M contracts than it is for guys that can be non-tendered pretty much whenever.

 

Age-related decline is a much more important consideration for guys who were NEVER EVER EVER GOOD until their 29th birthday.

That's not age related decline.

 

Are you serious right now? If you believe any of the crap you spew about decline, you of all people should realize that LaHair is a good bet to decline almost immediately after his likely one good season in the bigs. Is there more obvious a "short term player?" I really can't think of one, but that won't stop you from arguing about it.

What you're describing is not age-related decline.

 

The last thing the Cubs need to worry about is Bryan LaHair getting old on them.

[Tracer Bullet]

Let's not spend 10 pages on what is a stupid semantic argument.

[davearm2]

Some pretty basic comprehension skills would have prevented it from going 5 posts, let alone 10 pages.

[Guest]

No one is going to give you anything of value, ever, for Bryan LaHair.

 

I'm not so sure that's true, if we're operating under the idea that he's OPSing near .900 or something at the deadline. If a team thinks he is a legitimate major league hitter, he's going to be very cheap through what's left of his prime years.

[KingCubsFan]

I don't know if anyone is suggesting that the moment Rizzo gets the callup, we trade LaHair for garbage. But once Rizzo proves h'es ready to crush major league pitching too, if LaHair can bring value from a position we can trade from depth, you have to look at that.

 

Rizzo is going to get called up long before this club is seriously competing for the post season, so we'd be wasting a chance to POTENTIALLY get some long-term help for a shorter-term player if we kept LaHair and moved him to another position.

 

Eyes on the long-term rebuilding project...that's the prize. Hoping to squeeze a few more runs out of the lineup next year while sacrificing the opportunity to help us long-term is the wrong focus.

Why is LaHair a shorter-term player?

 

If he turns into a pumpkin at some point in 2012, so be it. You can't get much for him in trade now anyway.

 

If he doesn't, the Cubs have many years of club control. Probably the same as Rizzo, in fact, although I haven't double-checked.

 

(And no need to remind me of each guy's age. It's irrelevant to the issue of years under team control.)

I may be wrong, but since LaHair was signed as a minor league free agent, professional service time counts (not just major league). So he has 4 years left including this year.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't know if anyone is suggesting that the moment Rizzo gets the callup, we trade LaHair for garbage. But once Rizzo proves h'es ready to crush major league pitching too, if LaHair can bring value from a position we can trade from depth, you have to look at that.

 

Rizzo is going to get called up long before this club is seriously competing for the post season, so we'd be wasting a chance to POTENTIALLY get some long-term help for a shorter-term player if we kept LaHair and moved him to another position.

 

Eyes on the long-term rebuilding project...that's the prize. Hoping to squeeze a few more runs out of the lineup next year while sacrificing the opportunity to help us long-term is the wrong focus.

Why is LaHair a shorter-term player?

 

If he turns into a pumpkin at some point in 2012, so be it. You can't get much for him in trade now anyway.

 

If he doesn't, the Cubs have many years of club control. Probably the same as Rizzo, in fact, although I haven't double-checked.

 

(And no need to remind me of each guy's age. It's irrelevant to the issue of years under team control.)

I may be wrong, but since LaHair was signed as a minor league free agent, professional service time counts (not just major league). So he has 4 years left including this year.

 

I think you're wrong.

[Derwood]

I hope he continues to hit 57% of the team's home runs all year

[Hairyducked Idiot]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

[Guest]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

[MWV]

How is it that LaHair and Stewart are posting the same LD%?

BAbip is a bitch-goddess.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

 

I'm basing that statement on his career and a lifetime of Julio Zuletas and Micah Hoffpauirs. I'm dismissing his small sample stats because of his small sample peripherals.

[KaiserCesar]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

 

I'm basing that statement on his career and a lifetime of Julio Zuletas and Micah Hoffpauirs. I'm dismissing his small sample stats because of his small sample peripherals.

 

It's not like we're talking about Tyler Colin here who mustered a slg heavy .800 ops by having an unusually high hr/fb. Lahair has exaggerated peripherals - but that's allowing him to have his 1.100 ops. Once those numbers come down, we'll see if he can keep his strike out rate down as well and continue to be a good hitter (his k rate isn't historically quite this high). In the worst case, he's a bench bat for a few years and could even be a valuable player on a contending Cubs team depending on how he ages.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

 

I'm basing that statement on his career and a lifetime of Julio Zuletas and Micah Hoffpauirs. I'm dismissing his small sample stats because of his small sample peripherals.

 

It's not like we're talking about Tyler Colin here who mustered a slg heavy .800 ops by having an unusually high hr/fb. Lahair has exaggerated peripherals - but that's allowing him to have his 1.100 ops. Once those numbers come down, we'll see if he can keep his strike out rate down as well and continue to be a good hitter (his k rate isn't historically quite this high). In the worst case, he's a bench bat for a few years and could even be a valuable player on a contending Cubs team depending on how he ages.

 

That's really not the worst case. The worst case is that he continues to strike out at an unacceptable level, and when his BABIP and HR/FB% return to reasonable levels, he'll be a replacement-level offensive 1b with bad defense. He'll then spend the rest of his career bouncing between AAA and Japan.

[Guest]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

 

I'm basing that statement on his career and a lifetime of Julio Zuletas and Micah Hoffpauirs. I'm dismissing his small sample stats because of his small sample peripherals.

 

It's not like we're talking about Tyler Colin here who mustered a slg heavy .800 ops by having an unusually high hr/fb. Lahair has exaggerated peripherals - but that's allowing him to have his 1.100 ops. Once those numbers come down, we'll see if he can keep his strike out rate down as well and continue to be a good hitter (his k rate isn't historically quite this high). In the worst case, he's a bench bat for a few years and could even be a valuable player on a contending Cubs team depending on how he ages.

 

That's really not the worst case. The worst case is that he continues to strike out at an unacceptable level, and when his BABIP and HR/FB% return to reasonable levels, he'll be a replacement-level offensive 1b with bad defense. He'll then spend the rest of his career bouncing between AAA and Japan.

His HR/FB rate is probably not that far out of the norm for him. He has good power to all fields. The strikeouts don't matter, so you are left with an unsustainable BABIP, whooptie-freaking-do. .260 hitters who hit 20+ HRs and strike out 100+ times make a lot of money in baseball.

[Guest]

A 33% HR/FB% would be the third highest single season since we have data for it, which is a decade. It is no one's true talent level.

 

Also, the strikeouts and BABIP go hand in hand. Right now, Lahair with a normalized BABIP is a bench bat without a position.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Or perhaps it's time to accept that Bryan LaHair is the 3rd greatest hitter in baseball history.

[KaiserCesar]

A 33% HR/FB% would be the third highest single season since we have data for it, which is a decade. It is no one's true talent level.

 

Also, the strikeouts and BABIP go hand in hand. Right now, Lahair with a normalized BABIP is a bench bat without a position.

 

 

If you normalized his Babip, he would go from 12/22 on balls in play to 7/22. That would leave him with a .370 obp. Not exactly a fringe bat.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A 33% HR/FB% would be the third highest single season since we have data for it, which is a decade. It is no one's true talent level.

 

Also, the strikeouts and BABIP go hand in hand. Right now, Lahair with a normalized BABIP is a bench bat without a position.

 

 

If you normalized his Babip, he would go from 12/22 on balls in play to 7/22. That would leave him with a .370 obp. Not exactly a fringe bat.

 

Now also normalize his HR/FB%...

[KaiserCesar]

A 33% HR/FB% would be the third highest single season since we have data for it, which is a decade. It is no one's true talent level.

 

Also, the strikeouts and BABIP go hand in hand. Right now, Lahair with a normalized BABIP is a bench bat without a position.

 

 

If you normalized his Babip, he would go from 12/22 on balls in play to 7/22. That would leave him with a .370 obp. Not exactly a fringe bat.

 

Now also normalize his HR/FB%...

 

1 less home run turned into a fly ball in play. So, now we're talking an obp of something around .350. The real key going forward for Lahair will be if he can keep that K rate in the mid 20's where he's historically been. The stats show he's been lucky, but not that he needs luck to be productive.

[Guest]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

 

But Chris Shelton didn't.

[Little Slide Rooter]

BABIP .522

HR/FB: 37.4%

K%: 33.3%

 

Cute little hot streak, but there's nothing to see here and he'll have washed out by this time next year.

You're basing that statement on that small of a sample? Matt Stairs played MLB level for a long time

 

But Chris Shelton didn't.

 

I was actually wondering if there's a chance that he could end up landing somewhere between Babe Ruth and Jake Fox or if it has to be one extreme or the other.

[mul21]

I don't think he's a long term solution to anything really, but how many of these guys that have ended up as busts put together consistently good late inning at bats like LaHair has been? The AB against Motte where he fouled off 6 straight pitches gives me hope that his approach has advanced enough that even when the peripherals normalize a bit, he'll still be reasonably productive. And by reasonably productive, I'm talking .850ish OPS.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't quite get why "fouling off a lot of pitches" is always equated with "good at-bat."

 

Sometimes it is. Sometimes you just fouled off a bunch of hittable pitches that you should have driven somewhere.

 

The LaHair-Motte at-bat was a mix of both. He missed on some hittable pitches early in the count, but fouled off some good ones later.