Is Bryan LaHair legit?

[Guest]

Bryan LaHair has a long way to go before he matches what Corey Patterson did in the majors before hurting his knee. Talk to me when he gets there.

 

Or since hurting his knee.

 

Seriously.

 

Corey was really good in 2004. Like really good.

 

2003 is (I think) what you're referring to. That was the year he got hurt, but 298/329/511 in 83 games as a 23 year old is pretty impressive. 2004 he went 266/320/452, which is still pretty good.

 

 

83 games in a year that turned out to be his best year by far. In 329 AB's, with a .329 OBP. OK. And he had 1 real good year in the minors, in single A at age 19. His hype was completely based on age and therefore "potential" upside. All his age got him was more years of mediocrity.

 

OK. Let's see if LaHair gets there. I'll take LaHair's 2012-2013 vs Patterson 2003-2004. I'd make that bet.

Including defensive value? You're on. Whatever stakes you want to name, I'm in.

[Guest]

 

 

83 games in a year that turned out to be his best year by far. In 329 AB's, with a .329 OBP. OK. And he had 1 real good year in the minors, in single A at age 19. His hype was completely based on age and therefore "potential" upside. All his age got him was more years of mediocrity.

 

OK. Let's see if LaHair gets there. I'll take LaHair's 2012-2013 vs Patterson 2003-2004. I'd make that bet.

 

Did you miss the part where I mentioned he was worth 5.2 WAR in 2004?

 

Let me know if LaHair ever sniffs that.

[davell]

LaHair is at 1.4 WAR right now, after 26 games. I think it's very safe to say, unless TT is correct and LaHair is a wiccan, this is going to be his best stretch of the season by far. It's going to be extremely hard for him to be a 5 WAR player and that's not a knock on him whatsoever.

[CubColtPacer]

 

 

83 games in a year that turned out to be his best year by far. In 329 AB's, with a .329 OBP. OK. And he had 1 real good year in the minors, in single A at age 19. His hype was completely based on age and therefore "potential" upside. All his age got him was more years of mediocrity.

 

OK. Let's see if LaHair gets there. I'll take LaHair's 2012-2013 vs Patterson 2003-2004. I'd make that bet.

 

Did you miss the part where I mentioned he was worth 5.2 WAR in 2004?

 

Let me know if LaHair ever sniffs that.

 

To be fair, that 5.2 WAR is largely because of his incredible fielding numbers that year, which is either extremely flukish or more likely just plain wrong. His UZR/150 in 2003 was 2.8. In 2005 it was 6.5. In 2004 it was 30.7. He's only had 1 other year where it was even double digits! (excluding 2009, when he only had 50 fielding innings all season).

 

That's why there's such a huge discrepancy between fangraphs and baseball reference for that year. BR has him as a good defensive player that year, and only has him at 2.7 WAR for 2004. That's probably closer to what Patterson was that year, with a possibility of up to a 3.5 or 4 win player. But he almost certainly wasn't anywhere near a 5 win player. It's very fishy to have a player coming off a major knee injury have by far his best defensive season of his career, which is what the fangraphs numbers would indicate.

[KingCubsFan]

LaHair is at 1.4 WAR right now, after 26 games. I think it's very safe to say, unless TT is correct and LaHair is a wiccan, this is going to be his best stretch of the season by far. It's going to be extremely hard for him to be a 5 WAR player and that's not a knock on him whatsoever.

He'd basically have to be a top 4 first baseman the whole year, which isn't going to happen. It's hard for first basemen in general to put up gaudy WAR stats like Patterson did because the defensive ratings won't be as high.

[Guest]

 

To be fair, that 5.2 WAR is largely because of his incredible fielding numbers that year, which is either extremely flukish or more likely just plain wrong. His UZR/150 in 2003 was 2.8. In 2005 it was 6.5. In 2004 it was 30.7. He's only had 1 other year where it was even double digits! (excluding 2009, when he only had 50 fielding innings all season).

 

That's why there's such a huge discrepancy between fangraphs and baseball reference for that year. BR has him as a good defensive player that year, and only has him at 2.7 WAR for 2004. That's probably closer to what Patterson was that year, with a possibility of up to a 3.5 or 4 win player. But he almost certainly wasn't anywhere near a 5 win player. It's very fishy to have a player coming off a major knee injury have by far his best defensive season of his career, which is what the fangraphs numbers would indicate.

 

Hey. Screw you and your good points weakening my position.

[Fro]

LaHair OPS

1.289

 

Fielder + Pujols OPS

0.767 + 0.524= 1.291

[Bergy92]

LaHair OPS

1.289

 

Fielder + Pujols OPS

0.767 + 0.524= 1.291

 

ding, ding, ding.....we have a winner!

[erik316wttn]

Would it be wise to trade him at the deadline for a team who needs a bat, seeing as Rizzo is the future at 1B anyway? Or do we see if he can hack it in the OF and keep him around?

[Guest]

Would it be wise to trade him at the deadline for a team who needs a bat, seeing as Rizzo is the future at 1B anyway? Or do we see if he can hack it in the OF and keep him around?

It all depends on the offer.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Would it be wise to trade him at the deadline for a team who needs a bat, seeing as Rizzo is the future at 1B anyway? Or do we see if he can hack it in the OF and keep him around?

It all depends on the offer.

 

It seems to me as though if it was a serious option, LaHair would have seen more time in the OF by now. Again, we really don't have any big power bats aside from Rizzo, so I'd really like to see LaHair and Rizzo in the lineup together at some point. Of course for the right offer, you take it. I'd certainly expect to see the Dodgers and Brewers come sniffing around if they're contending when the time comes. Maybe the Angels if their 1st baseman doesn't work out. Maybe an even exchange if they pick up 75% of his contract 8-)

[Backtobanks]

Would it be wise to trade him at the deadline for a team who needs a bat, seeing as Rizzo is the future at 1B anyway? Or do we see if he can hack it in the OF and keep him around?

It all depends on the offer.

 

It seems to me as though if it was a serious option, LaHair would have seen more time in the OF by now. Again, we really don't have any big power bats aside from Rizzo, so I'd really like to see LaHair and Rizzo in the lineup together at some point. Of course for the right offer, you take it. I'd certainly expect to see the Dodgers and Brewers come sniffing around if they're contending when the time comes. Maybe the Angels if their 1st baseman doesn't work out. Maybe an even exchange if they pick up 75% of his contract 8-)

 

Why would we want Pujols at a deep discount when we called up Rizzo?

[flyseye]

 

 

83 games in a year that turned out to be his best year by far. In 329 AB's, with a .329 OBP. OK. And he had 1 real good year in the minors, in single A at age 19. His hype was completely based on age and therefore "potential" upside. All his age got him was more years of mediocrity.

 

OK. Let's see if LaHair gets there. I'll take LaHair's 2012-2013 vs Patterson 2003-2004. I'd make that bet.

 

Did you miss the part where I mentioned he was worth 5.2 WAR in 2004?

 

Let me know if LaHair ever sniffs that.

 

To be fair, that 5.2 WAR is largely because of his incredible fielding numbers that year, which is either extremely flukish or more likely just plain wrong. His UZR/150 in 2003 was 2.8. In 2005 it was 6.5. In 2004 it was 30.7. He's only had 1 other year where it was even double digits! (excluding 2009, when he only had 50 fielding innings all season).

 

That's why there's such a huge discrepancy between fangraphs and baseball reference for that year. BR has him as a good defensive player that year, and only has him at 2.7 WAR for 2004. That's probably closer to what Patterson was that year, with a possibility of up to a 3.5 or 4 win player. But he almost certainly wasn't anywhere near a 5 win player. It's very fishy to have a player coming off a major knee injury have by far his best defensive season of his career, which is what the fangraphs numbers would indicate.

 

Yep,Pattersons fangraphs 5.2 WAR is most certainly an error. He was certainly more valuable than LaHair defensivly, but anyone using the 5.2 WAR as an arguing factor needs to work a little harder. It is simply a flawed/inacurrate stat.

[DivineBovine]

 

 

83 games in a year that turned out to be his best year by far. In 329 AB's, with a .329 OBP. OK. And he had 1 real good year in the minors, in single A at age 19. His hype was completely based on age and therefore "potential" upside. All his age got him was more years of mediocrity.

 

OK. Let's see if LaHair gets there. I'll take LaHair's 2012-2013 vs Patterson 2003-2004. I'd make that bet.

 

Did you miss the part where I mentioned he was worth 5.2 WAR in 2004?

 

Let me know if LaHair ever sniffs that.

 

To be fair, that 5.2 WAR is largely because of his incredible fielding numbers that year, which is either extremely flukish or more likely just plain wrong. His UZR/150 in 2003 was 2.8. In 2005 it was 6.5. In 2004 it was 30.7. He's only had 1 other year where it was even double digits! (excluding 2009, when he only had 50 fielding innings all season).

 

That's why there's such a huge discrepancy between fangraphs and baseball reference for that year. BR has him as a good defensive player that year, and only has him at 2.7 WAR for 2004. That's probably closer to what Patterson was that year, with a possibility of up to a 3.5 or 4 win player. But he almost certainly wasn't anywhere near a 5 win player. It's very fishy to have a player coming off a major knee injury have by far his best defensive season of his career, which is what the fangraphs numbers would indicate.

 

Yep,Pattersons fangraphs 5.2 WAR is most certainly an error. He was certainly more valuable than LaHair defensivly, but anyone using the 5.2 WAR as an arguing factor needs to work a little harder. It is simply a flawed/inacurrate stat.

 

 

 

Thanks for the WAR arguments guys.

 

Yeah, I'll stand by my statement but from an offensive standpoint.

[davell]

If you're Theo or Jed, what do you do with this guy, seriously? Trade him RIGHT NOW? Trade him around the break when he may have built up more value/ Keep him and hope he's at least close to being passable in LF and hope his bat more than makes up for it?

 

If you trade him, what are you expecting in return? What's the least you take to make you pull the trigger on a deal?

 

I keep going back and forth on this. Yeah, I'd like to see him dealt, that much I think I've decided. But I'm not trading him for spare parts either. If he looks like a legitimate .850+ OPS guy, I think I'd be wanting a borderline top 100ish guy and another top 10ish prospect from a decent system. If I can't get that, I think I'd rather just try and make it work with him in LF. And figure out whatever is possible in trading Soriano and eating whatever we'd have to. Not ideal, but I think it's probable his bat has too much value for us to trade him for a true flyer type package. But, I think I'd roll the dice and let this thing get to the break, because I honestly think he's going to settle in as a solid power bat with discipline. And I'm saying this fully expecting some sort of inevitable slump. I just think he'll eventually settle in as a very solid hitter after he's gone through it.

[KingCubsFan]

If you're Theo or Jed, what do you do with this guy, seriously? Trade him RIGHT NOW? Trade him around the break when he may have built up more value/ Keep him and hope he's at least close to being passable in LF and hope his bat more than makes up for it?

 

If you trade him, what are you expecting in return? What's the least you take to make you pull the trigger on a deal?

 

I keep going back and forth on this. Yeah, I'd like to see him dealt, that much I think I've decided. But I'm not trading him for spare parts either. If he looks like a legitimate .850+ OPS guy, I think I'd be wanting a borderline top 100ish guy and another top 10ish prospect from a decent system. If I can't get that, I think I'd rather just try and make it work with him in LF. And figure out whatever is possible in trading Soriano and eating whatever we'd have to. Not ideal, but I think it's probable his bat has too much value for us to trade him for a true flyer type package. But, I think I'd roll the dice and let this thing get to the break, because I honestly think he's going to settle in as a solid power bat with discipline. And I'm saying this fully expecting some sort of inevitable slump. I just think he'll eventually settle in as a very solid hitter after he's gone through it.

At this point, he's more valuable to the Cubs than he would be in a trade, because I just don't think you're going to get much for him. When Rizzo comes up, they should try LaHair in left field and if it works out, you've got a league minimum replacement for Soriano (who at this point looks like he'll probably be released before his contract is up). If LaHair's bat is legit, that's a good way for the Cubs to improve the offense without having to sink more money into LF.

[Guest]

TT::LaHair = Me::Soriano

 

At least he's playing better D so far.

[Little Slide Rooter]

TT::LaHair = Me::Soriano

 

At least he's playing better D so far.

TT::LaHair=rich white guys::Obama

[Warren Brusstar]

What we need is more patronizing scorn at the mere suggestion that the Cubs consider playing LaHair in left field when Rizzo is promoted. I don't know if it will work, but anyone mocking the idea is an idiot.

[Sammy Sofa]

What we need is more scorn at the mere suggestion that the Cubs consider playing LaHair in left field when Rizzo is promoted. I know the idea is an idiot.

[El Duderino]

peter gammons mentioned it today, while talking about lahair playing basketball for jp riccardi. he said something to the effect if he's athletic enough to play basketball, he can play lf.

[javy knows my name]

peter gammons mentioned it today, while talking about lahair playing basketball for jp riccardi. he said something to the effect if he's athletic enough to play basketball, he can play lf.

 

Hey, well, that's not true.

[Warren Brusstar]

peter gammons mentioned it today, while talking about lahair playing basketball for jp riccardi. he said something to the effect if he's athletic enough to play basketball, he can play lf.

 

Again, I don't claim to know one way of the other. That people here think they know conclusively is comical.

[Geech]

What we need is more scorn at the mere suggestion that the Cubs consider playing LaHair in left field when Rizzo is promoted. I know the idea is an idiot.

 

I think it's worth trying. Soriano is no great shakes.

[Guest]

Will we know conclusively either way until he gets that chance? No. What we do know:

 

-LaHair is huge, 6-5, 240

-LaHair isn't a very good defensive 1B, rigid and somewhat clumsy in his movements

-As a 1B, moving to LF is moving the wrong way on the defensive spectrum

-In 6 years of AAA ball trying to break into the big leagues, LaHair played more than 50 games in the OF once. He hit .289/.354/.530 and was promptly released/not retained.

 

So while there is the hope that LaHair would not be terrible in LF, all available evidence points to that simply being a hope. Everything else spells out big trouble defensively for LaHair in the OF.