Is Bryan LaHair legit?

[Guest]

Doesn't BJ kind of suck?

 

Not at all. He's been worth 4+ fWAR for 4 of the past 5 seasons and his high point was 5 WAR in 2008. His offensive numbers aren't great (.258/.343/.417) but his defense is really good and he steals bases at an efficient clip (76% career success rate).

 

On top of that, he'll be 28 most of the year next year, so we'd have him through a good portion of his prime years. He's really good.

 

I wonder how much BJ will get. It'd be nice if those crappy looking offensive numbers kept his price down.

[sneakypower]

Well, if ZIPS said it, it must be true.

good argument.

 

I actually meant league-average for a 1b. I'm sure he can maintain the league average overall.

 

I'm a lot more willing to accept the possibility that he's an Adam Dunn type than I was going into the season, but it's still all coming from a .500 BABIP and a 37.4% HR/FB ratio.

you responded to a guy saying he'd be an above average hitter in LF, and a below average fielder, saying you were unsure even about the first part

 

average for LF this year is .316 wOBA, which again he's projected to exceed by a significant margin

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not in favor of giving him up for scraps, but if we can get two of another team's top 15 prospects, I do that trade without thinking twice. This is a guy who had 0 value prior to the season.

 

Yeah, no kidding; the idea that the Cubs should of course hold out for more than two top-15 picks is ludicrous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In my continuing quest to hold all the opinions and thus guarantee that I'm right in the long run, here's a comp I find very encouraging:

 

(all stats from B-R)

 

Bryan LaHair, age 28 and 29:

 

338/432/662

 

28.4% K-rate

14.8% BB-rate

18.5% HR-rate

0.60 GB/FB

20% LD

 

Adam Dunn, age 28-30

 

255/380/526

 

27.5% K-rate

16.0% BB-rate

19.0% HR/FB

0.51 GB/FB

20% LD

[Sammy Sofa]

Rizzo should really be our 2013 opening day 1st baseman, I don't think anyone disagrees with that. If LaHair finishes 2012 with an OPS in the mid .900s or higher, then some teams could take him very seriously.

 

What if we hold out for a top 5 prospect and another top 10-15, don't get the offer, keep him, and then he finishes the year with a sub-.800 OPS? Then we have an average bat and a below average glove on our hands - not a very valuable commodity on the market. While it's nice to think about your scenario, the sub-.800 OPS scenario is more likely.

 

I'm not in favor of giving him up for scraps, but if we can get two of another team's top 15 prospects, I do that trade without thinking twice. This is a guy who had 0 value prior to the season.

Is a sub-.800 OPS more likely at this point? No matter how much you attribute his start to luck, his numbers are so absurdly good that I have to think he'd have to really fall off a cliff to not end up with respectable numbers by the end of the year. The walk rate and LD% suggest he should maintain some production going forward.

 

Overall, I think it's worth holding onto him. As has been documented, guys like LaHair do come out of nowhere every once in a while and have productive careers. Jumping at the chance to trade him for two C to C+ prospects seems premature, as those trades rarely work out and the consensus outside of this board seems to be that this is not a complete fluke. The concern with LF defense is a bit excessive, especially considering the LF defense this team has dealt with (and succeeded with) the past 6 years. Best case scenario, we have an Andre-Ethier like player for cheap the next few years. Worse case, we lose out on the ability to add two more Brett Wallach's/Abner Abreu's to the system.

 

So you think Soriano has been a poor defender throughout his tenure as a Cub?

 

Well, he was pretty awful for a couple seasons, and pretty close to awful for a third one.

[dew1679666265]

Is a sub-.800 OPS more likely at this point? No matter how much you attribute his start to luck, his numbers are so absurdly good that I have to think he'd have to really fall off a cliff to not end up with respectable numbers by the end of the year. The walk rate and LD% suggest he should maintain some production going forward.

 

That's a good point, and I'm not good enough at projecting stats to argue the point (if it can be argued). Even if he drops below a .900 OPS, or especially into the low .800s, then you have a career minor leaguer who started off super hot and then probably put up a sub-.800 OPS for a large portion of the year who plays below average defense.

 

Overall, I think it's worth holding onto him. As has been documented, guys like LaHair do come out of nowhere every once in a while and have productive careers. Jumping at the chance to trade him for two C to C+ prospects seems premature, as those trades rarely work out and the consensus outside of this board seems to be that this is not a complete fluke. The concern with LF defense is a bit excessive, especially considering the LF defense this team has dealt with (and succeeded with) the past 6 years. Best case scenario, we have an Andre-Ethier like player for cheap the next few years. Worse case, we lose out on the ability to add two more Brett Wallach's/Abner Abreu's to the system.

 

I trust the scouting eye of the Theo regime more than I did the Hendry regime (though Hendry was a good scout in his own right). If given the choice, I'd rather take a shot on a couple of minor leaguers the Theo regime likes who are 18-21 than a near-30 year old career minor leaguer who got off to a really hot start and has nice peripherals and would be playing out of position.

 

Also, I'd think the Soriano era would encourage more people to value defense, not just happily accept more awful defense with a less-than-stellar bat. And Soriano hasn't even been that awful during his Cub tenure.

[Guest]

Rizzo should really be our 2013 opening day 1st baseman, I don't think anyone disagrees with that. If LaHair finishes 2012 with an OPS in the mid .900s or higher, then some teams could take him very seriously.

 

What if we hold out for a top 5 prospect and another top 10-15, don't get the offer, keep him, and then he finishes the year with a sub-.800 OPS? Then we have an average bat and a below average glove on our hands - not a very valuable commodity on the market. While it's nice to think about your scenario, the sub-.800 OPS scenario is more likely.

 

I'm not in favor of giving him up for scraps, but if we can get two of another team's top 15 prospects, I do that trade without thinking twice. This is a guy who had 0 value prior to the season.

Is a sub-.800 OPS more likely at this point? No matter how much you attribute his start to luck, his numbers are so absurdly good that I have to think he'd have to really fall off a cliff to not end up with respectable numbers by the end of the year. The walk rate and LD% suggest he should maintain some production going forward.

 

Overall, I think it's worth holding onto him. As has been documented, guys like LaHair do come out of nowhere every once in a while and have productive careers. Jumping at the chance to trade him for two C to C+ prospects seems premature, as those trades rarely work out and the consensus outside of this board seems to be that this is not a complete fluke. The concern with LF defense is a bit excessive, especially considering the LF defense this team has dealt with (and succeeded with) the past 6 years. Best case scenario, we have an Andre-Ethier like player for cheap the next few years. Worse case, we lose out on the ability to add two more Brett Wallach's/Abner Abreu's to the system.

 

So you think Soriano has been a poor defender throughout his tenure as a Cub?

 

Well, he was pretty awful for a couple seasons, and pretty close to awful for a third one.

 

Of course, the first two of those "past 6" he was really really good.

[sneakypower]

Not at all. He's (B.J. Upton) been worth 4+ fWAR for 4 of the past 5 seasons and his high point was 5 WAR in 2008. His offensive numbers aren't great (.258/.343/.417) but his defense is really good and he steals bases at an efficient clip (76% career success rate).

 

On top of that, he'll be 28 most of the year next year, so we'd have him through a good portion of his prime years. He's really good.

worth noting is that the Trop is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks; adjusting for park factors, that line (conceivably) becomes .265/.352/.430 if he'd played half his games in Wrigley

[Sammy Sofa]

I trust the scouting eye of the Theo regime more than I did the Hendry regime (though Hendry was a good scout in his own right). If given the choice, I'd rather take a shot on a couple of minor leaguers the Theo regime likes who are 18-21 than a near-30 year old career minor leaguer who got off to a really hot start and has nice peripherals and would be playing out of position.

 

Well said.

 

Also, I'd think the Soriano era would encourage more people to value defense, not just happily accept more awful defense with a less-than-stellar bat. And Soriano hasn't even been that awful during his Cub tenure.

 

Also well said. LaHair's defense would practically negate his offensive worth (and quite possibly then some) unless he kept hitting out of his mind.

[dew1679666265]

I wonder how much BJ will get. It'd be nice if those crappy looking offensive numbers kept his price down.

 

I'd be willing to go pretty high, I think. The traditional numbers are a little down for him so that might help and the teams that value his skill set aren't generally the more high-payroll organizations. I don't think the bidding will go too high, I'm just hoping the Yankees/Red Sox focus on Hamels/Greinke and we turn our attention to guys like Upton and maybe Drew.

[Cubswin11]

I wonder how much BJ will get. It'd be nice if those crappy looking offensive numbers kept his price down.

 

I'd be willing to go pretty high, I think. The traditional numbers are a little down for him so that might help and the teams that value his skill set aren't generally the more high-payroll organizations. I don't think the bidding will go too high, I'm just hoping the Yankees/Red Sox focus on Hamels/Greinke and we turn our attention to guys like Upton and maybe Drew.

I think Drew would be an excellent get to fill 2B next year. When is he expected to back this year? I would imagine he'd come on a pretty decent contract in the offseason.

[sneakypower]

Also well said. LaHair's defense would practically negate his offensive worth (and quite possibly then some) unless he kept hitting out of his mind.

using zips' ROS (.274/.341/.499), he could still play -15 defense in LF and be an above-average starter over a full season

 

my growing suspicion is that there's enough sorcery to Sveum's shifts (which have rated Soriano the best fielder in baseball, per UZR) that would cover up some of LaHair's limitations

 

now i'd still be fine with trading him, but i think you're underestimating how bad the offensive climate is in the MLB now, mojo

[davell]

You guys do understand that unless you're trading LaHair to Toronto, Tampa, or a very select small group of other teams, you're looking at trading LaHair for something resembling a Ben Wells/ Jae Hoon Ha type package from another systemright? Or Dae Run Rhee and maybe a Marconi Hernandez, if we get a true upside type guy back. Sorry, I'm holding out for more here. Power is hard to come by and cheap power is even scarcer. Two top 10 guys from a decent system, we're in the ballpark at least.

[KingCubsFan]

Rizzo should really be our 2013 opening day 1st baseman, I don't think anyone disagrees with that. If LaHair finishes 2012 with an OPS in the mid .900s or higher, then some teams could take him very seriously.

 

What if we hold out for a top 5 prospect and another top 10-15, don't get the offer, keep him, and then he finishes the year with a sub-.800 OPS? Then we have an average bat and a below average glove on our hands - not a very valuable commodity on the market. While it's nice to think about your scenario, the sub-.800 OPS scenario is more likely.

 

I'm not in favor of giving him up for scraps, but if we can get two of another team's top 15 prospects, I do that trade without thinking twice. This is a guy who had 0 value prior to the season.

Is a sub-.800 OPS more likely at this point? No matter how much you attribute his start to luck, his numbers are so absurdly good that I have to think he'd have to really fall off a cliff to not end up with respectable numbers by the end of the year. The walk rate and LD% suggest he should maintain some production going forward.

 

Overall, I think it's worth holding onto him. As has been documented, guys like LaHair do come out of nowhere every once in a while and have productive careers. Jumping at the chance to trade him for two C to C+ prospects seems premature, as those trades rarely work out and the consensus outside of this board seems to be that this is not a complete fluke. The concern with LF defense is a bit excessive, especially considering the LF defense this team has dealt with (and succeeded with) the past 6 years. Best case scenario, we have an Andre-Ethier like player for cheap the next few years. Worse case, we lose out on the ability to add two more Brett Wallach's/Abner Abreu's to the system.

 

So you think Soriano has been a poor defender throughout his tenure as a Cub?

In general, I don't think he's been very good (outside of his arm). We can just skip to the part where you cite Fangraph's positive take on his defense and his good UZR rating. And I'll point out that Baseball Reference has a more negative view of his defensive abilities, and I've never seen anything from scouting reports or other publications indicating he was a good fielder. So, in the end, we have a mixed bag on his defensive abilities (although I think it's pretty clear he's been bad the past few years). Even if we assume he's been an average fielder, does it really matter? Were we a much better team in 2007 or 2008 because of Soriano's defense in LF? Left fielders should be paid to hit. Combine that with the fact that Sveum's defensive positioning seems to be a real positive for our defense, and Epstein/Hoyer appear to be focusing on groundball pitchers going forward, and the value of a good defensive left fielder drops even further. It just seems stupid to me to advocate dumping him for marginal prospects because his WAR might drop when we shift him to LF. As long as he doesn't constantly drop easy flyballs, I don't care too much about his defense if he continues to be an above-average hitter.

[Sammy Sofa]

Also well said. LaHair's defense would practically negate his offensive worth (and quite possibly then some) unless he kept hitting out of his mind.

using zips' ROS (.274/.341/.499), he could still play -15 defense in LF and be an above-average starter over a full season

 

my growing suspicion is that there's enough sorcery to Sveum's shifts (which have rated Soriano the best fielder in baseball, per UZR) that would cover up some of LaHair's limitations

 

now i'd still be fine with trading him, but i think you're underestimating how bad the offensive climate is in the MLB now, mojo

 

Fine, then hopefully they can hold out for more when they trade him. Again, comparing Soriano to LaHair is nonsensical; Soriano has been a bad fielder in the past because he makes terrible judgements in the field but has the athleticism and the arm to at times help compensate (or actually be good). LaHair has nothing of the sort. Those would have to be some pretty magical shifts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

my growing suspicion is that there's enough sorcery to Sveum's shifts (which have rated Soriano the best fielder in baseball, per UZR) that would cover up some of LaHair's limitations

 

 

This has been one of my favorite parts of the new regime.

 

I always thought that Soriano was pretty good at coming in on balls and adequate side-to-side. He just really seemed to have trouble going back on balls.

 

So Sveum comes in and just tells him to play deeper. :good:

[erik316wttn]

Personally I say ride him out till the 4th of July, then sell him to the highest bidder assuming he keeps hitting. There's always a market for a power-hitting 1B at the deadline. Hell, he could even go to the AL and DH.

[Sammy Sofa]

The other part of this is his age; just because he burst out at 29 doesn't mean that his prime years are going to conveniently shift along with that. Yeah, he's cheap for a while, but he'd be 30 starting next year. What about his skillset says he's going to age gracefully and you can justify riding out his decline and passing on younger players like Upton?

 

Finding competitive teams that need production at DH and/or 1B isn't going to be hard. I trust our FO to get a haul for him by the deadline or in the offseason.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Sammy Sofa

[davell]

Over/under this line for LaHair at the break? .275/.360/.525 with 15 homers?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Over/under this line for LaHair at the break? .275/.360/.525 with 15 homers?

 

Over.

[sneakypower]

Over/under this line for LaHair at the break? .275/.360/.525 with 15 homers?

he only needs to hit .226/.310/.402 (in his next 200 PA) to reach that plateau

 

so, over

[Little Slide Rooter]

Rizzo should really be our 2013 opening day 1st baseman, I don't think anyone disagrees with that. If LaHair finishes 2012 with an OPS in the mid .900s or higher, then some teams could take him very seriously.

 

What if we hold out for a top 5 prospect and another top 10-15, don't get the offer, keep him, and then he finishes the year with a sub-.800 OPS? Then we have an average bat and a below average glove on our hands - not a very valuable commodity on the market. While it's nice to think about your scenario, the sub-.800 OPS scenario is more likely.

 

I'm not in favor of giving him up for scraps, but if we can get two of another team's top 15 prospects, I do that trade without thinking twice. This is a guy who had 0 value prior to the season.

Is a sub-.800 OPS more likely at this point? No matter how much you attribute his start to luck, his numbers are so absurdly good that I have to think he'd have to really fall off a cliff to not end up with respectable numbers by the end of the year. The walk rate and LD% suggest he should maintain some production going forward.

 

Overall, I think it's worth holding onto him. As has been documented, guys like LaHair do come out of nowhere every once in a while and have productive careers. Jumping at the chance to trade him for two C to C+ prospects seems premature, as those trades rarely work out and the consensus outside of this board seems to be that this is not a complete fluke. The concern with LF defense is a bit excessive, especially considering the LF defense this team has dealt with (and succeeded with) the past 6 years. Best case scenario, we have an Andre-Ethier like player for cheap the next few years. Worse case, we lose out on the ability to add two more Brett Wallach's/Abner Abreu's to the system.

 

So you think Soriano has been a poor defender throughout his tenure as a Cub?

 

I don't know much about how WAR is calculated, but aside from 2007, when it looks like he was pretty good his number have a minus before him, and I'm pretty sure that means poor defense.

[Sammy Sofa]

Seems like a solid conclusion. A -0.3 dWAR and a -2.1 dWAR are basically the same thing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Also well said. LaHair's defense would practically negate his offensive worth (and quite possibly then some) unless he kept hitting out of his mind.

using zips' ROS (.274/.341/.499), he could still play -15 defense in LF and be an above-average starter over a full season

 

my growing suspicion is that there's enough sorcery to Sveum's shifts (which have rated Soriano the best fielder in baseball, per UZR) that would cover up some of LaHair's limitations

 

now i'd still be fine with trading him, but i think you're underestimating how bad the offensive climate is in the MLB now, mojo

 

Fine, then hopefully they can hold out for more when they trade him. Again, comparing Soriano to LaHair is nonsensical; Soriano has been a bad fielder in the past because he makes terrible judgements in the field but has the athleticism and the arm to at times help compensate (or actually be good). LaHair has nothing of the sort. Those would have to be some pretty magical shifts.

 

In the past, he made certain bone headed plays that made him look worse than he was. Like you said, he alsways had the arm and athleticism. However, as he ages the athleticism is clearly declining, and his bat is no longer good enough to make up for that. If it gets to the point where he becomes a liability on both sides, then you have to cut your loses no matter how big they are. I'm not saying that it's at that point yet, but he's more likely to move in that direction than back to at least 2010.

[Sammy Sofa]

What th-

 

I don't even...

 

...

 

Nobody...NOBODY...was arguing that Soriano was some kind of long term solution in LF when they were bringing up his defensive abilities. What possessed you to think that you had to spell out the painfully obvious for the rest of us is just baffling.