Sean Marshall traded: T Wood +prospects Sappelt &Torreys p21

[SouthSideRyan]

It's not more than the market, it's that he'll be paid the same as a similar guy who's available as a FA, defeating the purpose of having him as a "cost-controlled" asset

 

:-k

 

Doesn't "market" pretty much mean "the same as a similar guy who's available as an FA"?

 

Anyway, he won't. He'll be paid less than a similar guy available as an FA.

 

Right, he'll be paid market, not more than the market

 

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

[davearm2]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

From Law's chat, still no specifics though.

 

What do you make of the Marshall/Wood trade? Any word on prospects involved?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

 

If it turns out to be the two guys I've heard, I prefer the Cubs side. Neither is a top-tier guy, but I'd rather have five years of Wood than one of Marshall anyway, and the two prospects are at least good enough to seal this for Chicago in my mind.

 

At least it sounds like it wont be the 27 year old AAA junk baller or the catcher that makes Koyie Hill look like Mike Piazza that had been previously speculated because I can't imagine them sealing any deal.

[CubColtPacer]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

 

Yes, and the Diamondbacks probably non-tendered him because they knew he was much worse than his ERA showed. If Wood put up a Saunders ERA with better peripherals, the Cubs wouldn't be non-tendering him in that situation.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

 

If Joe Saunders had the ability to maintain his 2011 ERA, then he wouldn't have been non-tendered and he'd be *way* better than Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

 

They'll look at and disregard. You honestly think an arbitration award has ever taken FIP into account?

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

 

If Joe Saunders had the ability to maintain his 2011 ERA, then he wouldn't have been non-tendered and he'd be *way* better than Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis.

 

I'll concede that.

[toonsterwu]

 

it's great that you think that, but almost everything i've read suggests that wood is just a guy. it's cool if he wants to pitch at the back of the rotation while he doesn't cost anything, but he doesn't seem like a guy we'll really want to see all the way through to free agency.

 

Well, if that's what you read and that's how he seems, I'm not sure how I'm supposed to argue with that.

 

His peripherals say he's an above-average major league pitcher. He's 24. He's healthy. That's really all I need to know.

 

Well, the one note I would make is that the use of FIP- here assumes that he's able to a pitcher somewhere in b/w his 2010 and 2011 performances. If 2011 is closer to a sign of things to come, then he's in Randy Wells category in terms of total FIP-. To be fair to Wells, he had two years (compared to 1 right now for Wood) of being an above average, relative to FIP-, starter, before bottoming out last year to drag down his overall numbers. Unlike Wood, Wells injuries last year is likely a big factor as to why things bottomed out. That said, whether or not Wells can consistently be the guy he was in 2009/2010 is a fair question.

 

Now, in Wood's defense, I've probably been a bit harsh in criticizing him. Yes, his ceiling is probably a bit higher than a 4/5 starter. If we're using numbers, his ceiling is probably a 3 starter. This presumes that his change stays consistently plus and he sharpens up his command a bit from last year.

[Guest]

Saunders is also 30 years old.

[davearm2]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

 

They'll look at and disregard. You honestly think an arbitration award has ever taken FIP into account?

Why wouldn't an arbiter consider advanced metrics?

[SouthSideRyan]

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

 

They'll look at and disregard. You honestly think an arbitration award has ever taken FIP into account?

Why wouldn't an arbiter consider advanced metrics?

 

Because the people hearing the cases aren't advanced baseball minds?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, the one note I would make is that the use of FIP- here assumes that he's able to a pitcher somewhere in b/w his 2010 and 2011 performances. If 2011 is closer to a sign of things to come, then he's in Randy Wells category in terms of total FIP-. To be fair to Wells, he had two years (compared to 1 right now for Wood) of being an above average, relative to FIP-, starter, before bottoming out last year to drag down his overall numbers. Unlike Wood, Wells injuries last year is likely a big factor as to why things bottomed out. That said, whether or not Wells can consistently be the guy he was in 2009/2010 is a fair question.

 

Basically, Wood is Randy Wells if Wells were six years younger, earlier in his service time clock, left-handed, threw a little harder, struck out more batters and didn't have a horrible 2011 on his resume.

[Exile on Waveland]

It's a matter of opinion, but right now we're looking at Joe Saunders '11 type #s based on people's projections in this thread. Joe Saunders who was non-tendered because he'd be overpaid compared to what a Paul Maholm or Jason Marquis will make in FA. And that last year, I find it hard for someone to argue he won't be paid market, considering that last year of arb is compared to the market rate.

 

Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP 2011, 4.65 career

 

Travis Wood: 4.01 FIP in 2011, 3.75 career

 

I was looking at standard ERA, the same way an arbiter would.

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

 

They'll look at and disregard. You honestly think an arbitration award has ever taken FIP into account?

 

I value Wood more than you do . . . but I'm totally with you on this. I don't know baseball arbitration specialists, but I'm guessing they're good-ole-baseball-boys.

[JGalt73]

Another bit on Wood from Keith Law's chat:

 

Is Wood a 4-5 or AAAA guy?

Klaw

(1:14 PM)

 

He's a 4-5 right now, but I think he could be better than that with a change in his pitching plan, using the cutter and change more and the four-seamer less. That's assuming his shoulder doesn't look like hamburger meat after two seasons with Dusty.

[Brian]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this move sure looks like the kind of move that many here would look at and say "I wish the Cubs made these kind of moves" in a pre-Theo world.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this move sure looks like the kind of move that many here would look at and say "I wish the Cubs made these kind of moves" in a pre-Theo world.

 

My first reaction was "Oh, hey, there's the Theo I wanted."

[NewUserName]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this move sure looks like the kind of move that many here would look at and say "I wish the Cubs made these kind of moves" in a pre-Theo world.

 

agreed. Also, I am sure there would have been some huge outrage if Hendry resigned Marshall to a 5+ million a year contract extension during the season.

[jersey cubs fan]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this move sure looks like the kind of move that many here would look at and say "I wish the Cubs made these kind of moves" in a pre-Theo world.

 

Yeah, it's the "kind" of move I'd like. A reliever approaching free agency for a younger starting pitcher and prospects. The specific people involved make me a little less enthusiastic, and I would have preferred something. But the moves, for all intents and purposes is solid.

[davearm2]

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

 

They'll look at and disregard. You honestly think an arbitration award has ever taken FIP into account?

Why wouldn't an arbiter consider advanced metrics?

 

Because the people hearing the cases aren't advanced baseball minds?

You understand how this works, right?

 

The team submits an arbitration number, and then presents evidence to support how/why their number is in line with the precedent for comparable arb-eligible players.

 

The player and his agent do the same to state their case.

 

The arbitrator then picks whichever number he feels is fairest, based on the evidence presented to him by both sides.

 

Do you think Theo Epstein shows up at arbitration hearings and argues player value using pitching wins and losses, or runs batted in? Or do you think he argues the team's position using advanced metrics?

[davearm2]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this move sure looks like the kind of move that many here would look at and say "I wish the Cubs made these kind of moves" in a pre-Theo world.

Seriously. It's like the perfect storm of everything folks want the GM to do:

* sell high on guys coming off of career years

* capitalize on the over-valuing of relievers

* get better value than what's available by offering the player arb (which is now nothing, if I understand the new CBA correctly)

* roll the dice on young guys that have shown success but have taken a step back

 

etc. etc. And that's not even considering the unknown prospects.

[Careless]

Do you think Theo Epstein shows up at arbitration hearings and argues player value using pitching wins and losses, or runs batted in? Or do you think he argues the team's position using advanced metrics?

That would depend on which makes the player look less valuable.

[javy knows my name]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this move sure looks like the kind of move that many here would look at and say "I wish the Cubs made these kind of moves" in a pre-Theo world.

 

My first reaction was "Oh, hey, there's the Theo I wanted."

 

Same here.

[SouthSideRyan]

An arbiter looks at whatever evidence is presented to him.

 

They'll look at and disregard. You honestly think an arbitration award has ever taken FIP into account?

Why wouldn't an arbiter consider advanced metrics?

 

Because the people hearing the cases aren't advanced baseball minds?

You understand how this works, right?

 

The team submits an arbitration number, and then presents evidence to support how/why their number is in line with the precedent for comparable arb-eligible players.

 

The player and his agent do the same to state their case.

 

The arbitrator then picks whichever number he feels is fairest, based on the evidence presented to him by both sides.

 

 

WHOA WHOA WHOA SLOW DOWN. I don't understand such big words

Edited December 22, 2011 by SouthSideRyan