Sean Marshall traded: T Wood +prospects Sappelt &Torreys p21

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They are talking about his current ability. His ceiling is a bit higher.

 

I've been hearing ceiling as well as current ability. He is what he is, would be a good descriptive term to describe him.

 

And I think you are underestimating how valuable a "No. 4 starter" is just because the Cubs have had so many terrible ones lately.

 

And I think you may be overestimating one because the Cubs had such issues with that last year and the back end of the rotation cost the Cubs so many games. It's important to have rotation depth, but the 2011 level of awfulness isn't likely to repeat itself because of the injury issues we had.

 

92 FIP-.

 

Randy Wells is rotation depth. Wood has a spot on almost any rotation.

[dew1679666265]

92 FIP-.

 

Randy Wells is rotation depth. Wood has a spot on almost any rotation.

 

And I don't disagree, but that spot is at the back end of the rotation - thus my comment that his ceiling is "very limited".

 

As a side note, what is FIP-? I've never seen that until you posted it a couple times in this thread.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Exactly how much do you guys think he's going to be getting in his last two arbitration years that are more than the market for a pitcher like him?

 

Probably enough that a lot of the surplus value in having "cost controlled years" is negated.

 

I'm going to need something more specific.

 

What are you projecting his WAR at for his last two years, what do you think the market price is, and what do you think he'll be getting in arbitration?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

92 FIP-.

 

Randy Wells is rotation depth. Wood has a spot on almost any rotation.

 

And I don't disagree, but that spot is at the back end of the rotation - thus my comment that his ceiling is "very limited".

 

As a side note, what is FIP-? I've never seen that until you posted it a couple times in this thread.

 

FIP/league average, indexed to 100. It's just like the "+" in OPS+ and ERA+, except indexed the other way so that lower is better. His FIP in the majors has been above the league average. If we're placing silly numbers on guys, that'd make him a good No. 3.

Edited December 22, 2011 by Hairyducked Idiot

[jersey cubs fan]

Exactly how much do you guys think he's going to be getting in his last two arbitration years that are more than the market for a pitcher like him?

 

He'll be getting market value, which is expensive.

[RynoRules]

The real upside of this trade is that its possible we will have more Wood than any other team in baseball.

[treebird]

They are talking about his current ability. His ceiling is a bit higher.

 

I've been hearing ceiling as well as current ability. He is what he is, would be a good descriptive term to describe him.

 

And I think you are underestimating how valuable a "No. 4 starter" is just because the Cubs have had so many terrible ones lately.

 

And I think you may be overestimating one because the Cubs had such issues with that last year and the back end of the rotation cost the Cubs so many games. It's important to have rotation depth, but the 2011 level of awfulness isn't likely to repeat itself because of the injury issues we had.

 

92 FIP-.

 

Randy Wells is rotation depth. Wood has a spot on almost any rotation.

 

it's great that you think that, but almost everything i've read suggests that wood is just a guy. it's cool if he wants to pitch at the back of the rotation while he doesn't cost anything, but he doesn't seem like a guy we'll really want to see all the way through to free agency.

[Bruno7481]

From Law's chat, still no specifics though.

 

What do you make of the Marshall/Wood trade? Any word on prospects involved?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

 

If it turns out to be the two guys I've heard, I prefer the Cubs side. Neither is a top-tier guy, but I'd rather have five years of Wood than one of Marshall anyway, and the two prospects are at least good enough to seal this for Chicago in my mind.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

it's great that you think that, but almost everything i've read suggests that wood is just a guy. it's cool if he wants to pitch at the back of the rotation while he doesn't cost anything, but he doesn't seem like a guy we'll really want to see all the way through to free agency.

 

Well, if that's what you read and that's how he seems, I'm not sure how I'm supposed to argue with that.

 

His peripherals say he's an above-average major league pitcher. He's 24. He's healthy. That's really all I need to know.

[Guancous]

The market value for an average 200 inning starter is a shade over $10,000,000 a year.

[dew1679666265]

I'm going to need something more specific.

 

What are you projecting his WAR at for his last two years, what do you think the market price is, and what do you think he'll be getting in arbitration?

 

I expanded a bit more in an edit after you quoted me, though it didn't answer any of these questions.

 

His WAR I'd expect to remain in the 2-3 range it's been at his first year in the majors. As for market price and what he'll actually get, I'm awful at that and probably would be wildly inaccurate if I guessed at it. That's pretty irrelevant to my argument, however, as my argument is not that he won't have any value later on. It's that the time when he has the most value - 2012-2013 - we're not making an effort to win and, thus, wasting those years. Thus, I'd have preferred a player who would be hitting the majors and be at his cheapest at the point in time when we plan on contending again.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

From Law's chat, still no specifics though.

 

What do you make of the Marshall/Wood trade? Any word on prospects involved?

Klaw (1:10 PM)

 

If it turns out to be the two guys I've heard, I prefer the Cubs side. Neither is a top-tier guy, but I'd rather have five years of Wood, who comps to Juan Pierre, than one of Marshall anyway, and the two prospects are at least good enough to seal this for Chicago in my mind.

 

FYP

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The market value for an average 200 inning starter is a shade over $10,000,000 a year.

 

And going up.

 

Wood isn't going to be making anything close to that in his final two arbitration years.

[Tracer Bullet]

They are talking about his current ability. His ceiling is a bit higher.

 

I've been hearing ceiling as well as current ability. He is what he is, would be a good descriptive term to describe him.

 

And I think you are underestimating how valuable a "No. 4 starter" is just because the Cubs have had so many terrible ones lately.

 

And I think you may be overestimating one because the Cubs had such issues with that last year and the back end of the rotation cost the Cubs so many games. It's important to have rotation depth, but the 2011 level of awfulness isn't likely to repeat itself because of the injury issues we had.

 

92 FIP-.

 

Randy Wells is rotation depth. Wood has a spot on almost any rotation.

 

it's great that you think that, but almost everything i've read suggests that wood is just a guy. it's cool if he wants to pitch at the back of the rotation while he doesn't cost anything, but he doesn't seem like a guy we'll really want to see all the way through to free agency.

 

He's 24 right?

[jersey cubs fan]

The market value for an average 200 inning starter is a shade over $10,000,000 a year.

 

And going up.

 

Wood isn't going to be making anything close to that in his final two arbitration years.

 

Unless he sucks he will.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The market value for an average 200 inning starter is a shade over $10,000,000 a year.

 

And going up.

 

Wood isn't going to be making anything close to that in his final two arbitration years.

 

Unless he sucks he will.

 

The common assumption for Matt Garza in this, his next-to-last arbitration year, is about $8 million.

[jersey cubs fan]

The market value for an average 200 inning starter is a shade over $10,000,000 a year.

 

And going up.

 

Wood isn't going to be making anything close to that in his final two arbitration years.

 

Unless he sucks he will.

 

The common assumption for Matt Garza in this, his next-to-last arbitration year, is about $8 million.

 

In what world is $8m not close to $10m? And it's the final year where he'll market value. The final two years will not be cheap. That was the point.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just for fun, without looking, try to rank the current five Cubs starting pitching in order of career FIP. Go.

 

Answers:

 

Travis Wood (3.75)

Matt Garza (3.92)

Carlos Zambrano (3.98)

Randy Wells (4.24)

Ryan Dempster (4.27)

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In what world is $8m not close to $10m? And it's the final year where he'll market value. The final two years will not be cheap. That was the point.

 

You missed the part where one of the players is Travis Wood and one of them is Matt Garza.

 

The last two years won't be as cheap as getting a $10 million starting pitcher for $500k or less, but they'll still be cheap.

[Guest]

Here's some guys who put up a 2-3 WAR in 2010 and what their arbitration year salary was in 2011.

 

Dallas Braden - 3.35 million - 1st year

Johnny Cueto - extension paying him 3.4/5.4/7.4 for all 3 years - 1st year

Jason Vargas - 2.45 million - 1st year

Shawn Marcum - 3.95 million - 2nd year

Wandy Rodriguez - extension paying him 7 million first year - 3rd year

 

 

You aren't paying them nothing, but these are still a good deal below market value. Matt Garza's going to get 8 million because he was one of the 15 best pitchers in baseball last year, he is not an appropriate point of comparison.

[jersey cubs fan]

Here's some guys who put up a 2-3 WAR in 2010 and what their arbitration year salary was in 2011.

 

Dallas Braden - 3.35 million - 1st year

Johnny Cueto - extension paying him 3.4/5.4/7.4 for all 3 years - 1st year

Jason Vargas - 2.45 million - 1st year

Shawn Marcum - 3.95 million - 2nd year

Wandy Rodriguez - extension paying him 7 million first year - 3rd year

 

 

You aren't paying them nothing, but these are still a good deal below market value. Matt Garza's going to get 8 million because he was one of the 15 best pitchers in baseball last year, he is not an appropriate point of comparison.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but I doubt they use WAR when determining arbitration awards. Also, are those 1st year arbitration players at all germane to the discussion?

[Guest]

Here's some guys who put up a 2-3 WAR in 2010 and what their arbitration year salary was in 2011.

 

Dallas Braden - 3.35 million - 1st year

Johnny Cueto - extension paying him 3.4/5.4/7.4 for all 3 years - 1st year

Jason Vargas - 2.45 million - 1st year

Shawn Marcum - 3.95 million - 2nd year

Wandy Rodriguez - extension paying him 7 million first year - 3rd year

 

 

You aren't paying them nothing, but these are still a good deal below market value. Matt Garza's going to get 8 million because he was one of the 15 best pitchers in baseball last year, he is not an appropriate point of comparison.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but I doubt they use WAR when determining arbitration awards. Also, are those 1st year arbitration players at all germane to the discussion?

 

Are you worried that Wood's numbers are going to be more cosmetically appealing than his actual value? I wouldn't guess that.

 

As for the comparisons, I don't know why the 1st years wouldn't matter. From last year there's a pretty clear 3/5/7 scale for that type of pitcher, which ranges up to the highest range of Wood's potential(Marcum put up nearly 4 WAR in 2010). That will move upward as we go, but we can expect that to be relatively consistent with the inflation of market values, so you're getting a guy below market value all 3 years of arbitration. Which really, makes sense intuitively.

[SouthSideRyan]

Those last two years probably won't be all that cost effective, unless he keeps getting better and better.

 

I'm confused - who are you talking about with this comment? If it's Wood, as I think, then I agree and that's why I said the higher upside prospect would be much more cost efficient than Wood would be when the Cubs are actually trying to contend again.

 

Wood. I keep hearing about 5 cost controlled years when in reality it's just 5 team controlled years, with a couple cheap ones and the rest will be very expensive. Even if he's mediocre he'll be awarded a lot of money in arbitration. That's why non-tenders exist.

 

Exactly how much do you guys think he's going to be getting in his last two arbitration years that are more than the market for a pitcher like him?

 

It's not more than the market, it's that he'll be paid the same as a similar guy who's available as a FA, defeating the purpose of having him as a "cost-controlled" asset

[SCCubbieFAN]

Anyone recall when Theo was with Boston if he had any history of acquiring players and then spinning them off to another team for something better?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's not more than the market, it's that he'll be paid the same as a similar guy who's available as a FA, defeating the purpose of having him as a "cost-controlled" asset

 

:-k

 

Doesn't "market" pretty much mean "the same as a similar guy who's available as an FA"?

 

Anyway, he won't. He'll be paid less than a similar guy available as an FA.