2012 - Throw away/Go for it?

[dew1679666265]

One thing I think a lot of people are missing is that pushing for signing Pujols/Prince/Wilson is not the same as arguing that we should make a major push in 2012. I've not advocated really making any moves other than the hypothetical Pujols/Prince and Wilson additions. You can keep a long term outlook on the team and focus on building the farm and infrastructure of the team and still add two of those three players. They're the kind of players who will be highly productive for 4-5 years going forward, meaning we don't have to have high expectations for 2012 in order for it to make sense to sign them. Adding these two is one facet of an overall rebuilding plan that includes improving the farm and finding other good values in FA and trades.

 

Building a long term base and core and adding two of Pujols/Prince and Wilson are not mutually exclusive goals - in fact, they are very much harmonious ideas that make the long term health of the club better.

[mul21]

 

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic? At least there's going to be a smart approach instead of Hendry' seemingly flavor of whoever won the last WS approach.

 

You do realize that they'll be signing Fielder or Pujols to more than a 1 year contract right? And that there's not any other elite level 1st basemen on the market in the next few years or near ready guys in the system? What do you propose they do for first base production on 2013-2015 if they don't sign one of them?

 

This isn't about 2012. It's about getting a core of very good players in place to be competitive as soon as possible, whether that ends up being 2012 or 2013 doesn't matter, but you need a big bat in the middle of the lineup to make that happen and those 2 guys fit the bill.

[Cubswin11]

 

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic? At least there's going to be a smart approach instead of Hendry' seemingly flavor of whoever won the last WS approach.

 

You do realize that they'll be signing Fielder or Pujols to more than a 1 year contract right? And that there's not any other elite level 1st basemen on the market in the next few years or near ready guys in the system? What do you propose they do for first base production on 2013-2015 if they don't sign one of them?

 

This isn't about 2012. It's about getting a core of very good players in place to be competitive as soon as possible, whether that ends up being 2012 or 2013 doesn't matter, but you need a big bat in the middle of the lineup to make that happen and those 2 guys fit the bill.

Votto is a FA after this season I believe. If we can't get Pujols I would at least think about passing on Fielder this offseason and finding a 1 year stop gap for first base again. Then go nuts next offseaon, with all the money coming off the books, we could sign Votto, Kemp, and Hamels and have a payroll about where it is now with those 3.

[jersey cubs fan]

Votto is a FA after this season I believe. If we can't get Pujols I would at least think about passing on Fielder this offseason and finding a 1 year stop gap for first base again. Then go nuts next offseaon, with all the money coming off the books, we could sign Votto, Kemp, and Hamels and have a payroll about where it is now with those 3.

 

Votto is signed through 2013.

 

And the real important thing is not necessarily when guys will be eligible to become free agents in the far off future, but actually having those guys reach free agency. The fact that Pujols and Fielder are reaching free agency at the same time is miraculous. Most of the time teams will try and lock up their stars. It's a horrible idea to pass on signing a stud because there is a chance you might be able to sign a different stud 2 years from now.

[Guest]

 

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic? At least there's going to be a smart approach instead of Hendry' seemingly flavor of whoever won the last WS approach.

 

You do realize that they'll be signing Fielder or Pujols to more than a 1 year contract right? And that there's not any other elite level 1st basemen on the market in the next few years or near ready guys in the system? What do you propose they do for first base production on 2013-2015 if they don't sign one of them?

 

This isn't about 2012. It's about getting a core of very good players in place to be competitive as soon as possible, whether that ends up being 2012 or 2013 doesn't matter, but you need a big bat in the middle of the lineup to make that happen and those 2 guys fit the bill.

Votto is a FA after this season I believe. If we can't get Pujols I would at least think about passing on Fielder this offseason and finding a 1 year stop gap for first base again. Then go nuts next offseaon, with all the money coming off the books, we could sign Votto, Kemp, and Hamels and have a payroll about where it is now with those 3.

 

 

I thought Votto was a free agent after 2013, but I might be wrong.

[Cubswin11]

 

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic? At least there's going to be a smart approach instead of Hendry' seemingly flavor of whoever won the last WS approach.

 

You do realize that they'll be signing Fielder or Pujols to more than a 1 year contract right? And that there's not any other elite level 1st basemen on the market in the next few years or near ready guys in the system? What do you propose they do for first base production on 2013-2015 if they don't sign one of them?

 

This isn't about 2012. It's about getting a core of very good players in place to be competitive as soon as possible, whether that ends up being 2012 or 2013 doesn't matter, but you need a big bat in the middle of the lineup to make that happen and those 2 guys fit the bill.

Votto is a FA after this season I believe. If we can't get Pujols I would at least think about passing on Fielder this offseason and finding a 1 year stop gap for first base again. Then go nuts next offseaon, with all the money coming off the books, we could sign Votto, Kemp, and Hamels and have a payroll about where it is now with those 3.

 

 

I thought Votto was a free agent after 2013, but I might be wrong.

He is, I messed up the years. Thought he was after this year since the Reds were rumored to be open to trading him.

[SouthSideRyan]

When is the last time that a major market team with a high payroll intentionally put a [expletive] product on the field so they could rebuild from within and wait for a farm system to be built from the ground up?

 

When has a major market team made a front office move like this? There is a difference between putting a bad product on the field and not making a significant free agent addition. I think they will not be a significant player in free agency and will spend the Ramirez and Fuk money on improvements to the organization and maybe to pay a big chunk of Zambrano's contract. If they are in the hunt in a crap division next year then they get into the trade market. That's how I see it going down.

 

 

So you think trading prospects to push a bad team that happens to be contending in a bad division over the top is a better plan with regard to both improving the major league team and the building the farm system than it would be to just sign a free agent now that improves the major league team significantly and doesn't cost them prospects?

 

And what the hell is the bold? Zambrano's contract is already part of the 2012 payroll. It's already taken into account when talking about the freed up money.

 

 

You think they're going to spend something like $30-40+M of freed up Major League payroll on "improvements to the organization?" Explain.

 

Getting those troughs out of there can be expensive.

[Exile on Waveland]

Votto is a FA after this season I believe. If we can't get Pujols I would at least think about passing on Fielder this offseason and finding a 1 year stop gap for first base again. Then go nuts next offseaon, with all the money coming off the books, we could sign Votto, Kemp, and Hamels and have a payroll about where it is now with those 3.

 

Votto is signed through 2013.

 

And the real important thing is not necessarily when guys will be eligible to become free agents in the far off future, but actually having those guys reach free agency. The fact that Pujols and Fielder are reaching free agency at the same time is miraculous. Most of the time teams will try and lock up their stars. It's a horrible idea to pass on signing a stud because there is a chance you might be able to sign a different stud 2 years from now.

 

Not to mention that it's also very difficult (near impossible?) to sign the top two or three free agents in any given year. Planning to sign three in one year is almost certain to fail; planning to sign one a year is possible. Pujols and Fielder are both free agents this year. Votto may or may not be a free agent in 2013.

 

The Cubs need a middle-of-the-order power hitter and a first-baseman. Like you said, it's miraculous two of those are available this offseason. And a few of the big(ger) money teams don't figure to be in the bidding. The timing is basically perfect.

[bukie]

Here's the full list of 5 WAR players this year that will be under 30 next year (Age next year at ASB, FA year):

 

9.4 - Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS (28, 2014)

8.7 - Matt Kemp, LAD (27, 2013)

8.0 - Dustin Pedroia, BOS (28, 2015)

7.8 - Ryan Braun, MIL (28, 2021)

7.3 - Miguel Cabrera, DET (29, 2016)

7.0 - Justin Verlander, DET (29, 2015)

6.9 - Alex Gordon, KC (28, 2014)

6.9 - Joey Votto, CIN (28, 2014)

6.8 - Clayton Kershaw, LAD (24, 2015)

6.4 - Justin Upton, ARI (24, 2016)

6.3 - Troy Tulowitzki, COL (27, 2021)

6.2 - Jose Reyes, NYM (29, 2012)

6.1 - Evan Longoria, TB (26, 2014 2017)

5.8 - Howie Kendrick, LAA (28, 2013)

5.7 - Andrew McCutchen, PIT (25, 2016)

5.6 - Robinson Cano, NYY (29, 2012 2014)

5.6 - Doug Fister, DET (28, 2016)

5.6 - Jered Weaver, LAA (29, 2013)

5.5 - Alex Avila, DET (25, 2016)

5.5 - Madison Bumgarner, SF (22, 2017)

5.5 - Prince Fielder, MIL (28, 2012)

5.5 - Felix Hernandez, SEA (26, 2015)

5.2 - Matt Cain, SF (27, 2013)

5.1 - Brett Gardner, NYY (28, 2015)

5.0 - Matt Garza, CHC (28, 2014)

5.0 - Ian Kennedy, ARI (27, 2016)

 

That's a total of 26 players in baseball (and one is even already on the Cubs!). What I'm illustrating with this is that these kind of players are rare as it is, and the ones that do exist are even less frequently available on the market because teams either have them locked up for the duration of their prime years (Braun, Tulowitzki, Longoria and holy crap do the Rays have a team-friendly deal on Longoria) or are in franchises that have a top 5 payroll to hang onto them long-term and have no excuse not to (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gardner, Kendrick, Weaver). Fortunately (for other teams), the Dodgers and Mets are in ownership flux right now, and may not be able to keep their young FAs (Reyes, Kemp, Kershaw).

 

So, the only way the Cubs are going to be able to get players of this caliber are:

1) Build them from within, but the only player on the roster with the potential to reach this plateau is Castro, so any other development has barely started yet.

2) Acquire the above players when they become available due to their clubs not being able to afford them, either through free agency or a trade (which the Cubs have limited assets attractive to most other teams).

 

As much as I'd like to see how available guys like Gordon, McCutchen and Upton might be, the most available solution is to grab guys like Fielder, Reyes and Kemp by spending only money. That's a way to add to the team both short and long term.

 

For reference, Pujols was a 5.1 WAR player this year after being an 8+ WAR player the previous 8-9 years. My main concern about Pujols is that we have to, as Epstein said, pay for future performance and not past performance.

[mul21]

Kemp and Fielder please!

 

If they can do that over the next 2 years, keep Aram (for 2 years plus an option maybe) and get a couple of arms on board, this team will be plenty competitive, especially once guys like McNutt, B Jackson, Whitenack, Rhee, Szczur, and Struck start giving you ML production (hopefully).

[C.C.]

Kemp and Fielder please!

 

If they can do that over the next 2 years, keep Aram (for 2 years plus an option maybe) and get a couple of arms on board, this team will be plenty competitive, especially once guys like McNutt, B Jackson, Whitenack, Rhee, Szczur, and Struck start giving you ML production (hopefully).

 

And if Pujols leaves we would win the division.

[Magnetic Curses]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

the cubs are a big market team, drafting well and cultivating a strong system will allow them to sign necessary players to huge and inefficient contracts because they may do a thing or two very well.

[bukie]

Also, just for completeness, there were a total of 44 players with a WAR of 5+ (15 pitchers, 29 position players). The other players with a 5+ WAR that will be 30+ next season:

 

Bautista, TOR - 8.3

Halladay, PHI - 8.2

Kinsler, TEX - 7.7

Sabathia, NYY - 7.1

Granderson, NYY - 7.0

Lee, PHI - 6.7

Gonzalez, BOS - 6.6

Zobrist, TB - 6.6

Haren, LAA - 6.4

Phillips, CIN - 6.0

Wilson, TEX - 5.9

Victorino, PHI - 5.9

Beltre, TEX - 5.7

Peralta, DET - 5.2

Pujols, STL - 5.1

Holliday, STL - 5.0

Berkman, STL - 5.0

Carpenter, STL - 5.0

 

Not that I'd be opposed to trying to acquire any of these players (Pujols and Wilson, for example), but I'd be wary of giving too long of a deal to them.

 

Another intriguing pitcher that just missed the 5+ WAR list is Justin Masterson of Cleveland (4.9), who will be 27 next year but isn't FA eligible until 2015.

[Magnetic Curses]

what kind of players did the mariners get for fister? just curious.

[Guest]

what kind of players did the mariners get for fister? just curious.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/furbuch01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruffich01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=martin018fra

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsca01.shtml

[toonsterwu]

what kind of players did the mariners get for fister? just curious.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/furbuch01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruffich01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=martin018fra

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsca01.shtml

 

That was one of those fascinating trades that I kept on flipping back and forth on which side "won" the deal. Obviously, it'll take time to decide who actually won it. I mean, Tigers didn't get elite pitching, but they got cost-controlled pitching that helped them. They didn't really give up any talent that they should worry about too much - Chance Ruffin probably has the highest ceiling of the bunch, IMO, as a possible late inning arm (still not sold Francisco Martinez is a regular, and I think Furbush is, at best, an end of the rotation guy and more likely, a "6th starter", and Wells looks like a 4th OF to me). That said, from the Mariners side, they gave up two arms that really didn't have high end ability and may have been overachieving, and got 4 young assets to look at.

[A New Era]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

I want the Cubs to be good next year. And I think they can be without going after Pojuls or Fielder. I think Theo is smart enough and good enough to find us a few under appreciated gems to help patch this ballclub up a bit next year. I've said many times, I'd rather see them triple the amount spend on international signings over the next 5 years over signing either one of them. Because that makes us all the MORE stronger a few years down the road. As opposed to immensely better right now, and somewhat better later.

[C.C.]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

 

Who the hell is saying that? Whoever wants to see a bad team next is not a Cubs fan.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

 

Who the hell is saying that? Whoever wants to see a bad team next is not a Cubs fan.

 

Talk Cubs outside of a board like this, and you will run into tons of fans who think that the best course if action for 2012 is to place Vitters at 1b, LeMahieu at 3b and go with an outfield of Colvin/Jackson/Byrd (if you can't find a trading partner for Byrd). Because anything else is sacrificing the future for the present, or something blithering like that.

[treebird]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

 

Who the hell is saying that? Whoever wants to see a bad team next is not a Cubs fan.

 

Talk Cubs outside of a board like this, and you will run into tons of fans who think that the best course if action for 2012 is to place Vitters at 1b, LeMahieu at 3b and go with an outfield of Colvin/Jackson/Byrd (if you can't find a trading partner for Byrd). Because anything else is sacrificing the future for the present, or something blithering like that.

 

yep. there are a lot of people (people who know a lot about the cubs even!) who think that we have to/are going to be garbage for 3-5 years if we have any hope of getting good thereafter.

[C.C.]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

 

Who the hell is saying that? Whoever wants to see a bad team next is not a Cubs fan.

 

Talk Cubs outside of a board like this, and you will run into tons of fans who think that the best course if action for 2012 is to place Vitters at 1b, LeMahieu at 3b and go with an outfield of Colvin/Jackson/Byrd (if you can't find a trading partner for Byrd). Because anything else is sacrificing the future for the present, or something blithering like that.

 

Idiots. We aren't a small market team for god sakes. Pujols might be gone and Fielder is a goner. No reason not to think by making the right moves we can make a run at it.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

 

Who the hell is saying that? Whoever wants to see a bad team next is not a Cubs fan.

Lots of people because that's the message they're getting from people like @thekapman who think the team is the worst team in the history of the game with no possible way of being competitive next year.

[Guest]

it is disturbing to see this trend of people who actually want the cubs to be bad next season because they somehow think that means that things are getting better. it's like they can't be a good team in 3 years because they're good next year.

 

I want the Cubs to be good next year. And I think they can be without going after Pojuls or Fielder. I think Theo is smart enough and good enough to find us a few under appreciated gems to help patch this ballclub up a bit next year. I've said many times, I'd rather see them triple the amount spend on international signings over the next 5 years over signing either one of them. Because that makes us all the MORE stronger a few years down the road. As opposed to immensely better right now, and somewhat better later.

 

Sure, increasing spending internationally a bit would be wise but the Cubs are already one of the biggest spenders. The Cubs are not going to be getting a lot of quality if they were spending $13-$15 million on international amateurs unless Theo has a plan to actually create 16-year old foreign prospects out of thin air (think of the law of diminishing marginal returns).

[A New Era]

Yeah good point.

[Sammy Sofa]

It makes me laugh that so many of the people who would rather wait for Votto to be a FA seemingly think he's a lot younger than he actually is. If the Cubs sign him when he'd be a FA next he'd be 30.