2012 - Throw away/Go for it?

[treebird]

OK, now I'm dying to know what point you think you just made.

 

i like this post a lot

[JonJayCutler]

Haha, if the Cubs win it all in 2012 the end of the world buzz will surely get out of hand for a couple months, that is until December 21st uneventfully passes of course.

 

Please do it though.

[cubsfan26]

I don't think they should go for it as in "All in". But they should add some key players to make them competitive and set them up to be really good in 2013. Realisticly the Cubs aren't going to go in a full rebuild. No teams do that unless they have too, and a big market team like the Cubs aren't going to do that. So they will have money to spend this off season, it's just gonna come down to what Theo/Hoyer wanna do with it. This is what I would do with it

 

Sign Fielder-Maybe 7 year at 158 million with vesting option for the 8th year. To make it the 8 year at 182 million which is more then Mark Teixeira got.

 

Trade for Gavin Floyd-Maybe Tyler Colvin, Chris Carpenter, Trey McNutt and Ja-Hoon Ha or Matt Szczur get's it done. Kenny Williams has said he wants major league ready players in return. Colvin is the type of player that Kenny Williams would target. With him being a former first round pick, talented but struggling. Carpenter is a guy he would probably think he could slide in the bullpen next year(working with Don Cooper) with Sale going into the rotation. Then he will have guys like McNutt and Hoon Ha or Szczur who are talented prospects. Depending on how you value those prospects we are either overpaying or not giving up enough. Either way I can see those as guys Theo/Hoyer see as expendable. Plus you got Floyd undercontrol with a club option for 2013 as well and I think he would have a lot of success in the NL.

 

Trade Carlos Zambrano- He's not returning to the team, Ricketts wouldn't allow it and most of his teammates want him gone. So the Cubs have no leverage here. So I guess get the best player in return you can and try to save as much money as possible.

 

 

Sign Edwin Encarnacion 1 year at 3 million, Paul Maholm 2 year at 12 million or Jon Garland at 1 year 5 million-Basically fill out the rest of the roster with guys off the scrap heap on short term deals and try to catch lighting in a bottle.

 

Team

 

SS-Starlin Castro

CF-Brett Jackson

1b-Prince Fielder

C-Geovany Soto

3B-Edwin Encarnacion

RF-Marlon Byrd

LF-Alfonso Soriano

2b-Darwin Barney/DJ

 

1.Matt Garza

2.Gavin Floyd

3.Ryan Dempster

4.Paul Maholm/Jon Garland

5.Randy Wells

Pen-Jeff Samardzija, James Russell, Sean Marshall, Kerry Wood, Andrew Cashner, Carlos Marmol

 

Yeah I know that line-up doesn't look very good. But the rotation is solid and bullpen is really good. If they can get good years out of Soto(850+ OPS Soto), Encarnacion(20 HR and 790-800+ OPS) and Jackson(15 HR, 350+ OBP and 800+ OPS).They could be a 85-87 win team and win a potentially weak division. But then next off season you go after Hamels or Cain, and then Kemp or Wright. If you get one of those pitchers and one of those hitters, well now your a World Series contender.

[C.C.]

Wow, that was it?

 

And declaring Dunn done is jumping the gun just a tad.

 

Agreed. I think he'll be Dunn next season. This season was just a disaster for the dude.

[Magnetic Curses]

I don't think they should go for it as in "All in". But they should add some key players to make them competitive and set them up to be really good in 2013. Realisticly the Cubs aren't going to go in a full rebuild. No teams do that unless they have too, and a big market team like the Cubs aren't going to do that. So they will have money to spend this off season, it's just gonna come down to what Theo/Hoyer wanna do with it. This is what I would do with it

 

Sign Fielder-Maybe 7 year at 158 million with vesting option for the 8th year. To make it the 8 year at 182 million which is more then Mark Teixeira got.

 

Trade for Gavin Floyd-Maybe Tyler Colvin, Chris Carpenter, Trey McNutt and Ja-Hoon Ha or Matt Szczur get's it done. Kenny Williams has said he wants major league ready players in return. Colvin is the type of player that Kenny Williams would target. With him being a former first round pick, talented but struggling. Carpenter is a guy he would probably think he could slide in the bullpen next year(working with Don Cooper) with Sale going into the rotation. Then he will have guys like McNutt and Hoon Ha or Szczur who are talented prospects. Depending on how you value those prospects we are either overpaying or not giving up enough. Either way I can see those as guys Theo/Hoyer see as expendable. Plus you got Floyd undercontrol with a club option for 2013 as well and I think he would have a lot of success in the NL.

 

wait, we are possibly trading try mcnutt AND matt szczur, along with colvin and carpenter for............gavin floyd, and you're thinking some people would see it as "not giving up enough"?

 

if we are trading that group of prospects, we better be getting a much better arm than floyd.

[Clem Fandango]

I would really like it if Albert Pujols wore a Cubs jersey next season... but if Carlos Pena is manning first base instead, it damn sure better mean that Joey Votto will be there in 2013

[dew1679666265]

They're both very similar hitters -- disciplined and patient I think you called it. They also both have unathletic body types.

 

Does that prove anything definitively? Of course not. Does it cast doubt on your theory about such players aging well? It does for me.

 

This is true that they are both patient and disciplined hitters, but I've never said that's a guarantee for success late in the career. It gives you a much better chance of aging well, but never have I argued that all patient and disciplined hitters age well because there are always exceptions to the rule.

 

The real problem with the Dunn comparison, however, is that he's had one bad year. He may not even be the exception if the BABIP normalizes next year and his HR/FB ratio improves the 11% it dropped this year. Just like writing off Carl Crawford as an awful signing because of one bad year is a mistake, assuming Adam Dunn is completely washed up because of one very unlucky year is a mistake.

[dew1679666265]

wait, we are possibly trading try mcnutt AND matt szczur, along with colvin and carpenter for............gavin floyd, and you're thinking some people would see it as "not giving up enough"?

 

if we are trading that group of prospects, we better be getting a much better arm than floyd.

 

I'd have no problem targeting Floyd in the offseason, but I agree we shouldn't give up 3 of our top 10 prospects and Colvin for him. I'd rather pay Wilson a boatload of money and keep the prospects.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Wow, that was it?

 

And declaring Dunn done is jumping the gun just a tad.

 

Agreed. I think he'll be Dunn next season. This season was just a disaster for the dude.

 

That's a pretty bold prediction. I also predict he'll be Dunn the season after that and the season after that as well as all future and previous seasons. Sorry, couldn't help myself.

[ScrubMD]

Wow, that was it?

 

And declaring Dunn done is jumping the gun just a tad.

 

Agreed. I think he'll be Dunn next season. This season was just a disaster for the dude.

 

That's a pretty bold prediction. I also predict he'll be Dunn the season after that and the season after that as well as all future and previous seasons. Sorry, couldn't help myself.

 

that was a really funny joke

[Sammys Boombox]

I would really like it if Albert Pujols wore a Cubs jersey next season... but if Carlos Pena is manning first base instead, it damn sure better mean that Joey Votto will be there in 2013

 

I don't think Pena would accept another 1-year deal.

[cubsfan26]

wait, we are possibly trading try mcnutt AND matt szczur, along with colvin and carpenter for............gavin floyd, and you're thinking some people would see it as "not giving up enough"?

 

if we are trading that group of prospects, we better be getting a much better arm than floyd.

 

I'd have no problem targeting Floyd in the offseason, but I agree we shouldn't give up 3 of our top 10 prospects and Colvin for him. I'd rather pay Wilson a boatload of money and keep the prospects.

 

 

Floyd has been a 4.5, 4.3 and 3.6 WAR pitcher for the White Sox for the last three years and I believe he would have even more success in the NL(like Garza did). You would have Floyd under contract for 2012 and 2013 as well at a reasonable price(16.5 million). So too get it him it's gonna cost a decent amount. Yeah I know as Cubs fans, we are pretty high on our own prospects. But you also gotta consider how the rest of the league looks at them. McNutt upside is similar to Gavin Floyd, if he fixes his control problems. I know a lot of people are high on Szczur, but keep in mind guys like Kevin Goldstein think his upside is Reed Johnson. So a good starting pitching prospects with big questionmarks, good relief prospect, solid outfield prospect and Colvin who has talent but big strike zone issues that was a major bust last year. Well is that really a lot?

 

 

Compare that package of Archer, Lee, Chirinos and Guyer for Garza. McNutt value is nowhere near what Archer was, and Szczur value by most isn't what Lee was either. Floyd value isn't as high as Garza and you got Garza for a extra year. So the price should be lesser, but you still have to give up a decent amount to get a guy like Floyd. Personally I would much rather trade those prospects(because I think there upside is limited) to get a guy like Floyd. Then give a guy like CJ Wilson 5 to 6 years at 100 million at age 31. I know Wilson was awesome this past season with the Rangers, especially pitching in that park. But that contract at his age is way too risky for me, and in the long run it could turn into the type of bad money that screwed up this team the past few years. Plus Floyd would only make 9.5 million in 2013, and still put the team in the position to go sign Hamels or Cain to a big contract. If you have a guy like Wilson under a long term big money deal like that, it makes it unlikely that they would add another starting pitcher on a big long term deal the next off season too.

[toonsterwu]

I'm just not the biggest fan of Gavin Floyd and feel like he's a slightly better Randy Wells, but there's one big reason I would rather not do that trade, and it's rather simple. Why not just go after Edwin Jackson, who, while with the White Sox, performed as well, if not better than, Gavin Floyd, and wouldn't cost prospects?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

My "How to compete in 2012, the years after, and still not sacrifice the almighty, always a'comin future" Plan v.1 finished:

 

What I would do if I was Ricketts/Theo and I wanted to win next year without messing around with "the future" too much...Keep mind that the Cubs have no shot at losing their top 15 pick, which to me is a huge advantage going forward into FA:

 

Target #1: Albert Pujols

Cost: 8 years $225 million (2nd round draft pick - Noooo!)

Logic: I want the best player in the game. I have the resources to pay that best player in the game. I can make alot of money by getting the best player in the game on my team. Therefore, pay the man (note: I wrote 240 then knocked it down).

 

Target #2: CJ Wilson

Cost: 5 years $84 million

Logic: Has held up and then thrived as a SP in the AL and Texas. Really, I'd love for CC Sabathia to be here (5 years 140), but Wilson is a solid choice after him. Anyway, I think he can be anywhere from a 4.5-5.5 WAR pitcher for the majority of the contract (assuming health), and then I think he'll settle into a 3.5-4.5 range in the last year or two. Tough if that means anything, and one of the most well conditioned pitchers in the league (also if that means anything).

 

Trade: Brett Jackson, Darwin Barney, Dae-Eun Rhee, and Rafael Dolis to the Rays to CF BJ Upton and LHP Jake McGee

Logic: Much like the Granderson for Austin Jackson trade, the Cubs trade a top prospect for a proven CF entering his prime. Upton had huge expectations as the #2 overall pick in 2002, lived up to it for one season and then the '08 postseason where he ripped, and since then got hurt, sucked, got healthy again, and has settled into being merely a 4 WAR CF the past two seasons. The Rays get cheaper in CF, get a positive WAR replacement for Brignac (Barney's a likeable player, but his limited upside and the fact that here he's an all glove 2B rather than all glove SS makes him a prime trade candidate), and Dolis offers another power pen arm that can help soon. McGee offers a power lefty pen arm that's been a little slow to come along for the Rays. Rhee's getting alot of love after what's mostly an OK season a couple years removed from TJ.

 

Trade: Carlos Zambrano and <5 million cash to the Marlins for 3B prospect Matt Dominguez, C prospect Kyle Skipworth, and RHP Alan Oaks

Logic: Marlins get a still fairly young former star pitcher who can jump right into the rotation, and some cash. The Cubs get two prospects that have lost their shine. Dominguez is an all glove 3B who's bat hasn't rounded into much, but he's also 21. Skipworth is the HS C they drafted a couple of years ago in the first that kind of just sucks now. Dominguez will get to try to win the 3B job out of ST because Ramirez leaves for Florida also, where he and Hanley Ramirez form the worst defensive left side of the IF in baseball. Byrd gives them a solid CF.

 

Trade: LHP Sean Marshall, Jeff Baker, and RHP Jay Jackson to the Angels for RHP Tyler Chatwood, LHP Trevor Reckling, and RHP Kevin Jepsen

Logic: With McGee, Gaub, Beliveau, and Russell the Cubs have potential lefty pen arms. Marshall can get something interesting, and Chatwood's arm is definitely interesting. He's short and he walks guys, but he's also healthy, athletic, and he threw well at times during his callup this year at 21. Jepsen throws hard too, but was hurt last year. Reckling is left handed and athletic, but is basically their Jay Jackson (by that I mean token black SP prospect). Cubs save a couple million, yay.

 

Small FA signings:

 

3B Casey Blake

Battles for the 3B spot

 

Jon Broxton

Bulldpen depth

 

Scott Olsen/Kevin Millwood/Jeff Francis/Zack Duke

AAA SP depth/in case [expletive] happens arms.

 

Tell LeMahieu to get ready to try out at 2B in the spring.

 

Field:

 

C: Soto

1B: Pujols

2B: LeMahieu/Other (Aaron Hill? Ryan Flaherty?)

SS: Castro

3B: Dominguez/Blake or

LF: Soriano (I can't imagine a realistic way of getting rid of him...I don't want to do the Zito thing)

CF: Upton

RF: Colvin/Byrd

 

Rotation:

 

Wilson

Garza

Dempster

Wells

Chatwood

 

Can't build Rome in a day but I think this team has room for growth and has some good upside. There's many other routes to go (for instance getting rid of Byrd/Colvin and going after one of Drew/Beltran/Sizemore/Cuddyer for RF), this is just one.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not sure Brett Jackson would have the value for the Rays in a trade that he might have for another organization. With Desmond Jennings capable of sliding over to CF, does Brett hold enough intrigue for them as a LF? I mean, part of Brett's intrigue lies in his potential to play CF, but if they don't need him there, is Brett the type of value they chase after? I have my doubts, but just speculation.

 

I don't think the 3rd trade is particularly necessary. That said, I'm not that big on the Angels threesome that you have suggested to come over.

[cubsfan26]

I'm just not the biggest fan of Gavin Floyd and feel like he's a slightly better Randy Wells, but there's one big reason I would rather not do that trade, and it's rather simple. Why not just go after Edwin Jackson, who, while with the White Sox, performed as well, if not better than, Gavin Floyd, and wouldn't cost prospects?

 

 

Floyd stuff is much better then Randy Wells, just like Garza. I recall many around here saying Garza was only slightly better then Wells a year ago as well. But when you watch them pitch you can tell there's worlds of different in stuff/talent. Plus Floyd is a guy who's numbers across the board should improve by switching leagues(like Garza). With a era lowering to mid 3s, increase in strike outs and a few other things. I wouldn't be against signing Edwin Jackson for the right price(say 3 years at 33 million). But to be honest his 1.40s WHIPs scare me some and 34 of his 64 starts the past two years were in the NL.

[cubsfan26]

I'm just not the biggest fan of Gavin Floyd and feel like he's a slightly better Randy Wells, but there's one big reason I would rather not do that trade, and it's rather simple. Why not just go after Edwin Jackson, who, while with the White Sox, performed as well, if not better than, Gavin Floyd, and wouldn't cost prospects?

 

 

Floyd stuff is much better then Randy Wells, just like Garza. I recall many around here saying Garza was only slightly better then Wells a year ago as well. But when you watch them pitch you can tell there's worlds of different in stuff/talent. Plus Floyd is a guy who's numbers across the board should improve by switching leagues(like Garza). With a era lowering to mid 3s, increase in strike outs and a few other things. I wouldn't be against signing Edwin Jackson for the right price(say 3 years at 33 million). But to be honest his 1.40s WHIPs scare me some and 34 of his 64 starts the past two years were in the NL.

[17 Seconds]

mcnutt/szczur for floyd is definitely not the kind of thing you can expect from theo & co

[Guest]

The obvious difference between Floyd and Garza is that having Floyd for 2 years v. Garza for 3 makes a very big difference in the value they can expect in return. He'll also pitch all of next year at age 29 while Garza still hasn't turned 28. If we're going to trade for a White Sox starter, I'd rather go after Danks. He only has one year to free agency so he'll come cheaper, plus I get the feeling that the Sox prefer Floyd to Danks. He turns 27 next April, so we could extend him pretty smartly too, and his value could be suppressed with a mediocre ERA despite consistent peripherals.

[toonsterwu]

I'm just not the biggest fan of Gavin Floyd and feel like he's a slightly better Randy Wells, but there's one big reason I would rather not do that trade, and it's rather simple. Why not just go after Edwin Jackson, who, while with the White Sox, performed as well, if not better than, Gavin Floyd, and wouldn't cost prospects?

 

 

Floyd stuff is much better then Randy Wells, just like Garza. I recall many around here saying Garza was only slightly better then Wells a year ago as well. But when you watch them pitch you can tell there's worlds of different in stuff/talent. Plus Floyd is a guy who's numbers across the board should improve by switching leagues(like Garza). With a era lowering to mid 3s, increase in strike outs and a few other things. I wouldn't be against signing Edwin Jackson for the right price(say 3 years at 33 million). But to be honest his 1.40s WHIPs scare me some and 34 of his 64 starts the past two years were in the NL.

 

I don't think anyone here ever questioned Garza's stuff relative to Wells. If anything, they might've questioned Garza's effectiveness, but he did more than improve as a result of a AL-NL move - he reinvented himself as a pitcher. Floyd's success is dependent upon a plus breaking ball and not relying on his fastball as much. From a year to year basis, he may post occasionally better numbers, but I'm not sure it's realistic to think that he's going to make improvements the way Garza did. Anyhow, that's a hypothetical that can't really be answered.

 

In 30 starts with the White Sox under Don Cooper, Edwin Jackson had a roughly 1.36 total WHIP. He posted 174 K's over that span, while only walking 61, with xFIP numbers of 3.01 and 3.54. HIS WHIP's are high as a result of some more balls sneaking through, compared to Floyd, rather than an issue of command/control. He gets more ground balls than Floyd and has better strikeout stuff than Floyd, while not having poor control and not giving up the long ball.

 

There is the glaring issue of what happened to him when he wasn't with the White Sox/Cooper, but I utilized him as a comparison because he shared the same coaching as Floyd. It's easy to forget that Floyd had failed before getting coached by Cooper, so we don't know what would happen as another coach tinkers with him. In Jackson's case, with the Cardinals, his control/command has still been there, but he's struck out a lot less guys. Notably, he started going away from the slider usage with the Cardinals and started depending on the fastball a lot more, which was the case before Cooper as well.

[dew1679666265]

Floyd has been a 4.5, 4.3 and 3.6 WAR pitcher for the White Sox for the last three years and I believe he would have even more success in the NL(like Garza did). You would have Floyd under contract for 2012 and 2013 as well at a reasonable price(16.5 million). So too get it him it's gonna cost a decent amount. Yeah I know as Cubs fans, we are pretty high on our own prospects. But you also gotta consider how the rest of the league looks at them. McNutt upside is similar to Gavin Floyd, if he fixes his control problems. I know a lot of people are high on Szczur, but keep in mind guys like Kevin Goldstein think his upside is Reed Johnson. So a good starting pitching prospects with big questionmarks, good relief prospect, solid outfield prospect and Colvin who has talent but big strike zone issues that was a major bust last year. Well is that really a lot?

 

Floyd's a good pitcher, but he's already a couple years into his prime and probably won't improve that much more. Targeting him is fine, treating him like Garza is a mistake. Garza was 2 years younger when we targeted him and just entering his prime, Floyd will be 29 (I think) next year.

 

As for our prospects, if other teams don't value them highly you don't just keep adding undervalued prospects to a deal, you don't make the deal. McNutt was a top 50 prospect coming into the season and has #2 starter upside. Sczur was fantastic early on last season, but got fatigued late in the year because he went from a full year of baseball to a full year of football to a full year of baseball without a break. He has all the tools Brett Jackson has and a number of prospect sites really like him. As for Carpenter and Colvin, I'm not nearly as opposed to dealing them but when I think McNutt/Szczur is too much value then adding a high-end bullpen arm (potential closer) and a cheap 4th OF just makes it way too much.

 

Compare that package of Archer, Lee, Chirinos and Guyer for Garza. McNutt value is nowhere near what Archer was, and Szczur value by most isn't what Lee was either. Floyd value isn't as high as Garza and you got Garza for a extra year. So the price should be lesser, but you still have to give up a decent amount to get a guy like Floyd. Personally I would much rather trade those prospects(because I think there upside is limited) to get a guy like Floyd. Then give a guy like CJ Wilson 5 to 6 years at 100 million at age 31. I know Wilson was awesome this past season with the Rangers, especially pitching in that park. But that contract at his age is way too risky for me, and in the long run it could turn into the type of bad money that screwed up this team the past few years. Plus Floyd would only make 9.5 million in 2013, and still put the team in the position to go sign Hamels or Cain to a big contract. If you have a guy like Wilson under a long term big money deal like that, it makes it unlikely that they would add another starting pitcher on a big long term deal the next off season too.

 

In Wilson's two years starting, he's been a 4.6 and 5.9 WAR pitcher. He's been better than Floyd since becoming a starter and even though he's 31, he only has 700 innings pitched to this point. That's more than 250 innings pitched less than Floyd. The mileage on Wilson's arm is pretty minimal for a 31 year old starter, meaning he's more likely to remain healthy and effective for the duration of a 4-5 year deal (I don't think it'll go to 6 years).

 

And considering Wilson is just as good as guys like Cain, Hamels, etc., I have no problem pursuing the sure thing FA in Wilson rather than waiting and hoping that one of the big name guys will both become FAs and be better deals than Wilson is this year. Both of those happening is unlikely. Now if you want to talk about trading for John Danks, I'll be much more open to that White Sox starter - considering he'll be 27 next year and has been better than Floyd.

[toonsterwu]

Since I have to spend a few hours at the service center, I was pondering Fielder. I wonder if he might accept a package that overwhelms in AAV (comparatively). Something like 6 years/156 million, giving him a 26 mil AAV, higher than Tex's 22.5. Or maybe something like 7/168 (24 mil AAV) that allows him to opt out after the 4th year. I think I'd feel better about something like that compared to a 8 year deal at a slightly lower AAV.

[Guest]

Levine on the radio right now and actually competent enough to realize they could be competitive next year if they don't reduce payroll with all the money that's coming off the books.

 

 

He does say that he doesn't think it's going to go down that way. He also thinks Fielder/Pujols would be a waste of money unless you fix the pitching. Not sure why it has to be talked about like an either/or thing.

[Hrubes20]

Levine on the radio right now and actually competent enough to realize they could be competitive next year if they don't reduce payroll with all the money that's coming off the books.

 

 

He does say that he doesn't think it's going to go down that way. He also thinks Fielder/Pujols would be a waste of money unless you fix the pitching. Not sure why it has to be talked about like an either/or thing.

 

What I don't get is the thought that signing a Prince/Pujols this year means the team is "going all out" to win in 2012. Does the rest of the contract not count? Does the contending team have to be put together in one offseason? There won't be any bats of Prince/Pujols caliber available after 2012, unless Kemp somehow reaches the market. Getting Prince/Pujols would shore up 1B for the next 5 years at least, allowing Theo to concentrate on the other team needs. It should also be noted that the free agent starting pitching class is absolutely loaded after this next season. A Prince/Pujols in 2011; and at least one of Hamels/Cain/Liriano/Sanchez/Greinke/Marcum/Danks/etc in 2012 would go a long way towards making this team a contender.

[Sammy Sofa]

Levine on the radio right now and actually competent enough to realize they could be competitive next year if they don't reduce payroll with all the money that's coming off the books.

 

 

He does say that he doesn't think it's going to go down that way. He also thinks Fielder/Pujols would be a waste of money unless you fix the pitching. Not sure why it has to be talked about like an either/or thing.

 

What I don't get is the thought that signing a Prince/Pujols this year means the team is "going all out" to win in 2012. Does the rest of the contract not count? Does the contending team have to be put together in one offseason? There won't be any bats of Prince/Pujols caliber available after 2012, unless Kemp somehow reaches the market. Getting Prince/Pujols would shore up 1B for the next 5 years at least, allowing Theo to concentrate on the other team needs.

 

Exactly. There's this underlying tone from some that seems to be saying that the Cubs would only have like 1-3 years to win with either Pujols or Fielder, and that's almost certainly not the case.