2012 - Throw away/Go for it?

[davearm2]

One would think that what the Mets can get back for Wright is somewhat limited by his contract.

 

I wouldn't expect anyone to be in a big hurry to shell out lots of great prospects AND $15M for one year of David Wright, coming off of several subpar seasons.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml

 

Besides last season what should I be worried about here? The '09 with 10 HRs? It also came with a .300+ BA and a .390 OBP, plus it's hard to believe he's a 10 HR guy in Wrigley anyway.

 

I know Wright's had his issues, but except for last year 15 million really isn't a bad price for him. Even last year his Iso's were strong...

What I'm worried about is that he went from four straight years of .900+ OPS to .837, .856 and last year .771.

 

$15M isn't a bad price, given the potential for a rebound. $15M plus a bunch of young players is, though.

[jersey cubs fan]

I like Wright. The health/decline in recent years is a concern. But he's not quite 29, he's been in the middle of a horrible lineup in 2 of the last 3 years, and his SLG remains stronger outside of Citi Field. He is going to be good for an 80-90 IsoD. And he should still be in his prime.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

What I'm worried about is that he went from four straight years of .900+ OPS to .837, .856 and last year .771.

 

$15M isn't a bad price, given the potential for a rebound. $15M plus a bunch of young players is, though.

 

At least some of that is park and run environment influenced. 15M + young players would be worth it if the Cubs get a high end 3B post-Ramirez for a few years.

[dew1679666265]

At least some of that is park and run environment influenced. 15M + young players would be worth it if the Cubs get a high end 3B post-Ramirez for a few years.

 

I don't think park is having much to do with it. As I posted earlier in this thread, he's declined steadily on the road since Citi Field opened, whereas his numbers have been up and down at home. His overall decline has actually been propped up by his home numbers, rather than brought down.

[jersey cubs fan]

At least some of that is park and run environment influenced. 15M + young players would be worth it if the Cubs get a high end 3B post-Ramirez for a few years.

 

I don't think park is having much to do with it. As I posted earlier in this thread, he's declined steadily on the road since Citi Field opened, whereas his numbers have been up and down at home. His overall decline has actually been propped up by his home numbers, rather than brought down.

 

His SLG has been higher on the road every year. There has to be some Citi effect. Because not only are his power numbers down as a result, but he has to adjust his swing/approach which is going to carry over to the road.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I don't think park is having much to do with it. As I posted earlier in this thread, he's declined steadily on the road since Citi Field opened, whereas his numbers have been up and down at home. His overall decline has actually been propped up by his home numbers, rather than brought down.

 

I think we'd see more of his 2010 power if he played at Wrigley than the '09 or '11 power, which is what matters to me. I also think he'd hit closer to .300 than .250, which also matters to me. I trust he'll take his walks.

[dew1679666265]

His SLG has been higher on the road every year. There has to be some Citi effect. Because not only are his power numbers down as a result, but he has to adjust his swing/approach which is going to carry over to the road.

 

He's been less patient and struck out more on the road than at home, though. It's possible Citi Field has made him a radically different player than he used to be, but I'm not sure enough about that to put my concerns aside and support giving up the prospects and money it would take to get him.

[jersey cubs fan]

His SLG has been higher on the road every year. There has to be some Citi effect. Because not only are his power numbers down as a result, but he has to adjust his swing/approach which is going to carry over to the road.

 

He's been less patient and struck out more on the road than at home, though. It's possible Citi Field has made him a radically different player than he used to be, but I'm not sure enough about that to put my concerns aside and support giving up the prospects and money it would take to get him.

 

Yes, he has been less patient. Perhaps that's an indication of a hitter who hates his park and gets over aggressive on the road. Either way, Citi saps power, and his power has been higher on the road. It's pretty clear he's still a very patient hitter overall. He's going to IsoD from 80-90 and IsoP from 190-220.

[dew1679666265]

I think we'd see more of his 2010 power if he played at Wrigley than the '09 or '11 power, which is what matters to me. I also think he'd hit closer to .300 than .250, which also matters to me. I trust he'll take his walks.

 

For what it would take to get him and for the likely cost going forward, I'd want closer to 2005-2008 overall numbers than 2010. I'd also want his fielding to rebound to at least average, which it hasn't been since 2008.

 

There's simply too much that has to improve for me to be comfortable with the pricetag he'd come with both in prospects and money.

[davearm2]

What I'm worried about is that he went from four straight years of .900+ OPS to .837, .856 and last year .771.

 

$15M isn't a bad price, given the potential for a rebound. $15M plus a bunch of young players is, though.

 

At least some of that is park and run environment influenced. 15M + young players would be worth it if the Cubs get a high end 3B post-Ramirez for a few years.

15M + young players would not be worth it so long as simply keeping Ramirez remains an option.

[toonsterwu]

Oh, I don't think there's any way a team gives up anything decent without a renegotiated deal ... and the Mets simply aren't going to trade Wright for chump change when they have few moveable talent that could net them the multiple pieces they need to try and accelerate the rebuild process at a lower cost.

[gflore34]

I'd stay away from Fielder and Pujols they're both financial albatrosses in the waiting. Epstein stressing the development of the Cub Way to me that suggests an emphasis on the draft and the farm system. A good well instructed, fundamentally strong farm system is going to give the Cubs the best chance to win year after year. Winning year after year will lead to more playoff appearances thereby maximizing the chance they'll break through for that WS win. The complete opposite of the quick fix.

[Guest]

I'd stay away from Fielder and Pujols they're both financial albatrosses in the waiting. Epstein stressing the development of the Cub Way to me that suggests an emphasis on the draft and the farm system. A good well instructed, fundamentally strong farm system is going to give the Cubs the best chance to win year after year. Winning year after year will lead to more playoff appearances thereby maximizing the chance they'll break through for that WS win. The complete opposite of the quick fix.

 

 

THEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTH

[gflore34]

I'd stay away from Fielder and Pujols they're both financial albatrosses in the waiting. Epstein stressing the development of the Cub Way to me that suggests an emphasis on the draft and the farm system. A good well instructed, fundamentally strong farm system is going to give the Cubs the best chance to win year after year. Winning year after year will lead to more playoff appearances thereby maximizing the chance they'll break through for that WS win. The complete opposite of the quick fix.

 

 

THEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTH

 

No [expletive] Sherlock, Epstein did mention the importance of veteran leadership that could mean a FA signing or a trade.

[Guest]

I'd stay away from Fielder and Pujols they're both financial albatrosses in the waiting. Epstein stressing the development of the Cub Way to me that suggests an emphasis on the draft and the farm system. A good well instructed, fundamentally strong farm system is going to give the Cubs the best chance to win year after year. Winning year after year will lead to more playoff appearances thereby maximizing the chance they'll break through for that WS win. The complete opposite of the quick fix.

 

 

THEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTH

 

No [expletive] Sherlock, Epstein did mention the importance of veteran leadership that could mean a FA signing or a trade.

 

 

I'm not talking about veteran leadership. I'm talking about signing superstar players to open positions with no long term option anywhere near being in sight.

 

He also mentioned that every year is an opportunity to win and no opportunity to win should be thrown away. He also said that the big league team was on a parallel plane to the farm and that the farm can and will be built while the major league team is addressed.

 

Why do people keep thinking that a team with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

[Guest]

When is the last time that a major market team with a high payroll intentionally put a [expletive] product on the field so they could rebuild from within and wait for a farm system to be built from the ground up?

[gflore34]

I'd stay away from Fielder and Pujols they're both financial albatrosses in the waiting. Epstein stressing the development of the Cub Way to me that suggests an emphasis on the draft and the farm system. A good well instructed, fundamentally strong farm system is going to give the Cubs the best chance to win year after year. Winning year after year will lead to more playoff appearances thereby maximizing the chance they'll break through for that WS win. The complete opposite of the quick fix.

 

 

THEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTH

 

No [expletive] Sherlock, Epstein did mention the importance of veteran leadership that could mean a FA signing or a trade.

 

 

I'm not talking about veteran leadership. I'm talking about signing superstar players to open positions with no long term option anywhere near being in sight.

 

He also mentioned that every year is an opportunity to win and no opportunity to win should be thrown away. He also said that the big league team was on a parallel plane to the farm and that the farm can and will be built while the major league team is addressed.

 

Why do people keep thinking that a eam with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

 

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic? At least there's going to be a smart approach instead of Hendry' seemingly flavor of whoever won the last WS approach.

[SchruteFarms]

When is the last time that a major market team with a high payroll intentionally put a [expletive] product on the field so they could rebuild from within and wait for a farm system to be built from the ground up?

 

When has a major market team made a front office move like this? There is a difference between putting a bad product on the field and not making a significant free agent addition. I think they will not be a significant player in free agency and will spend the Ramirez and Fuk money on improvements to the organization and maybe to pay a big chunk of Zambrano's contract. If they are in the hunt in a crap division next year then they get into the trade market. That's how I see it going down.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd stay away from Fielder and Pujols they're both financial albatrosses in the waiting. Epstein stressing the development of the Cub Way to me that suggests an emphasis on the draft and the farm system. A good well instructed, fundamentally strong farm system is going to give the Cubs the best chance to win year after year. Winning year after year will lead to more playoff appearances thereby maximizing the chance they'll break through for that WS win. The complete opposite of the quick fix.

 

 

THEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTHTHEY CAN DO BOTH

 

No [expletive] Sherlock, Epstein did mention the importance of veteran leadership that could mean a FA signing or a trade.

 

 

I'm not talking about veteran leadership. I'm talking about signing superstar players to open positions with no long term option anywhere near being in sight.

 

He also mentioned that every year is an opportunity to win and no opportunity to win should be thrown away. He also said that the big league team was on a parallel plane to the farm and that the farm can and will be built while the major league team is addressed.

 

Why do people keep thinking that a eam with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

 

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic? At least there's going to be a smart approach instead of Hendry' seemingly flavor of whoever won the last WS approach.

 

IT'S ALBERT PUJOLS AND PRINCE FIELDER

 

Including over the top high estimates for arbitration awards, the Cubs payroll sits at 90M. So your plan is to do what exactly with the rest of the 40M?

[gflore34]

IT'S ALBERT PUJOLS AND PRINCE FIELDER

 

Including over the top high estimates for arbitration awards, the Cubs payroll sits at 90M. So your plan is to do what exactly with the rest of the 40M?

 

GIVE IT TO YOU AFTER PUJOLS AND FIELDER ARE SIGNED DUE TO YOUR INFLUENCE

Edited October 26, 2011 by gflore34

[Magnetic Curses]

derp the cubs should, nay, MUST lose next season! derp

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic?

 

I would not agree there is a lot to fix. They need one or two rotation pitchers and a huge middle-of-the-order bat.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic?

 

I would not agree there is a lot to fix. They need one or two rotation pitchers and a huge middle-of-the-order bat.

 

Yeah, but if we don't sign those two starters, why bother getting a huge middle of the order bat for the next 5 years??

[Guest]

When is the last time that a major market team with a high payroll intentionally put a [expletive] product on the field so they could rebuild from within and wait for a farm system to be built from the ground up?

 

When has a major market team made a front office move like this? There is a difference between putting a bad product on the field and not making a significant free agent addition. I think they will not be a significant player in free agency and will spend the Ramirez and Fuk money on improvements to the organization and maybe to pay a big chunk of Zambrano's contract. If they are in the hunt in a crap division next year then they get into the trade market. That's how I see it going down.

 

 

So you think trading prospects to push a bad team that happens to be contending in a bad division over the top is a better plan with regard to both improving the major league team and the building the farm system than it would be to just sign a free agent now that improves the major league team significantly and doesn't cost them prospects?

 

And what the hell is the bold? Zambrano's contract is already part of the 2012 payroll. It's already taken into account when talking about the freed up money.

 

 

You think they're going to spend something like $30-40+M of freed up Major League payroll on "improvements to the organization?" Explain.

Edited October 26, 2011 by David

[toonsterwu]

Wouldn't you agree there's a lot to fix and expecting much in 2012 is unrealistic?

 

I would not agree there is a lot to fix. They need one or two rotation pitchers and a huge middle-of-the-order bat.

 

I'm not in the same camp as gflore, as I'm okay making a push and FA signings (as noted ealier in this thread). I guess a lot depends on what exactly one is expecting when saying "expecting much", but for me, that suggests a push for a World Series caliber season (doesn't mean we get there, but to try and construct a World Series caliber club). Perhaps your definition is different, but to legitimately win in 2012, to have a championship caliber club, I tend to think we need more than simply 1 or 2 rotation pitchers and a huge middle of the order bat (and I tend to think that is a lot to begin with).

 

I think we need (to have a championship caliber club)

 

Starting Pitching - 2 top 3 starters, 1 end of the rotation arm that can eat innings, and 4th arm that either serves as a long man or goes to AAA (as the "6th" starter). The 4th part is overlooked, but while it wouldn't cost as much, it might be harder to find. The top guys, the guys that are needed to fill the 2 key rotation starters roles, are easy to identify because there is a limited market. We need two top 3 starters, as Dempster isn't a lock to pick up the player option. Finding pitching depth is easier said than done since most teams gobble up pitching. I don't want to turn only have Casey Coleman to turn to if we are trying to have a championship caliber club (hard to depend on Nick Struck, Chris Rusin, or Jay Jackson as rotation options if the goals are that high)

 

Bullpen - This might have an easy answer, and that could be Marmol finds his form, but what's the backup plan if Marmol doesn't? I think there is another easy answer but it's a disappointing answer in some respects, and that's Cashner.

 

Lineup - 2 middle of the order bats, another guy with power, and a more consistent top of the order. I mean, we have holes at 1st, 3rd, and RF right now, as I don't think you can go into the year penciling in Tyler Colvin as a starter if your goal is to be a championship caliber club. More importantly, as we enter the offseason, there's no impact bats in the middle of the lineup. I'd love to think Geovany Soto will be closer to his 2010 form, but I don't think you can take that to the bank. Aramis is a FA.

 

One thing that gets a bit overlooked is the top of the order, for, I think, two reasons - 1, the overall numbers weren't bad (Cubs number 1 hitters had the best OBP in the league, I think, and the number 2 hitters had a respectable .334 OBP) and 2, a lot of the assumption is that Brett Jackson will be fine to step into a top 2 slot early in his career. The problem becomes, what happens if Brett struggles? Then your plan B becomes ... Darwin Barney? If it's a "developmental, let's try for a winning season and see if we can sneak into the playoffs" year, okay. If it's a championship caliber year? That seems a bit sketchy.

 

________________

 

There is one simple answer as it relates to the rotation, which is to motivate Carlos Zambrano somehow. Whatever savings we could net in a Zambrano deal probably wouldn't achieve much talent wise (I mean, even the most postive outlook on savings that I've seen some fans post is roughly 5 mil ... that's roughly an end of the rotation starter at best). Since I'm drinking some coffee and not wanting to get to work, I'll play with some hypotheticals. I think the best way to construct a championship caliber club in 2012 is to motivate Z to at least be a solid 4th starter that logs innings. Of course, perhaps Z is bad enough that his removal better for the team, but if not, then you give yourself a lot more flexibility.

 

So, a hypothetical to build a club that I think could be championship caliber, on paper -

 

Starting Pitching

 

1. Sign CJ Wilson. Seems like rumors are suggesting that some teams aren't going to push hard here. See if an aggressive early offer gets him signed. I'd caution on expectations here. The numbers are great, but I wonder if people are expecting an elite starter, which I'm still not completely sold he is. That said, he's the best on the market. Give him that 5 year deal, see if he'll bite at 80 mil, but I wouldn't go past 90 mil. I'd get creative in how the money is structure, but that leads to the whole separate discussion from above that I don't want to rehash. Short of it is, though, in 2012, you'd try and have as low a number as you can to fit everything in.

 

2. Bring back Dempster on a 2-year deal. Perhaps give him a 3rd year option based on innings in 2013 or some other standard. If you want to win, you need some clubhouse leadership, and Dempster was one of the few guys who seemed to offer that, while still being productive.

 

3. Motivate Z and mend fences, with Z, and b/w Z and teammates.

 

4. Sign a swing starter type that might be amenable to a long man, minor league role. Perhaps that is someone like Mitch Talbot.

 

Thus, Garza/Wilson/Dempster/Zambrano/Wells, with Talbot/Coleman/Struck/Rusin/J. Jackson as potential depth options.

 

Bullpen

 

1. Uh ... get Marmol ... right ... somehow, which leads to

 

2. Have a Plan B. Is that Wood? Is that Marshall? Or is it ...

 

3. I hate the general idea of it, because I think it essentially drastically reduces the chances of him being a starter, but I don't think there's any chance they spend the year building up Cashner's arm strength in the minors as a starter (if he's in the pen in 2012, it's going to be hard for him to work on consistency on the changeup for him to make an effective transition to starting, leaving aside the workload issues). That said, with Marmol's issues this past year, grooming Cashner as the future closer isn't a bad fallback, just not a desired one.

 

4. Do not waste unnecessary assets in FA on the bullpen. Now, if you can get a gamble on someone on the cheap, okay (Hong-Chih Kuo comes to mind if he wants to continue his career and is non-tendered, as expected). There are enough guys to rotate into the middle relief roles, and you have your core guys at the back end.

 

Positional

 

1. Make a hard push for David Wright. You need at least 2 impact bats, and well, there aren't many 3rd base options in FA or the trade market, that really feel like solid impact bat potential (and even Wright is debatable in that respect). I think a extension would have to be worked out. I left out Trey McNutt in the rotation discussion above because of this. I'm not sure it would be enough to get it done, but offer them any 3 or 4 guys besides Brett Jackson.*

 

2. Sign Prince Fielder. I'd try to see if he's amenable to a high AAV 6 year deal, or a slightly lower AAV 7 year deal with an opt out. The number is likely going to have to surpass Teixeira's AAV.

 

3. Go after someone like Josh Willingham. This isn't ideal in any way, shape or form. But I'm not depending on Tyler Colvin in 2012 if my expectations are sky high. There simply aren't that many great options for RF, and adding Beltran takes this to unrealistic levels, because it's quite unlikely that Ricketts would somehow agree to increase spending that much. His defense would be very troublesome, but I can't shake the feeling that there needs to be another power bat if the intent is to push hard in 2012.

 

4. Install Brett Jackson in CF. You need a cheap starter somewhere. Deal Marlon Byrd somehow - freeing up cash is more important than the return.

 

5. Sign Kelly Johnson as a 2nd base "time-share partner" with Darwin Barney and a lefty bench bat. As noted above, I think you need a Plan B to Brett as a top of the order option. That said, Johnson might attract more interest than expected because of how he finished, and Anthoupoulos seems to be high on him. If the bidding gets too high, you step away.

 

Barney would double as the backup shortstop, Tyler Colvin would rotate in at RF on occasion (which could let Josh Willingham spell at 1st occasionally). There would still need to be another key backup or two, particularly in CF and at 3rd, ad a big righty bench bat would be nice. I'd ask Kelly Johnson to pick up an OF glove (not that unrealistic - he did play some OF early in his career).

 

6. Oh ... no Koyie Hill. Clevenger, Castillo ... heck, if they want to sign a FA, fine, provided it's better than Koyie.

 

Lineup: Castro/B.Jackson or Kelly Johnson/Wright/Fielder/Willingham and you could rotate Johnson/Barney or Jackson/Soriano/Soto or backup catcher in the 6-8 spots depending on who is hot.

 

* - This assumes, of course, that there are enough key prospects left after Theo compensation. If McNutt is involved in Theo compenstion, I see very little way the Cubs could get a Wright deal done without Brett Jackson (again, I'm assuming that the Cubs would want a Wright extension, and the Mets would be amenable to letting them discuss it with Wright since they would likely get a better return as a result - all this presumes the Mets are that legitimately open to dealing him. While the situations are different, Kevin Towers kicked the tires on a Justin Upton deal, only to decide against it).

 

Okay, that was way too much time at 5 am devoted to thinking about baseball, but that looks ... decent. I don't know if I'd go into the year penciling in this group as a NLCS club, but it looks ... solid. That said, do we have the money to do that? Obviously, creative structuring of the money could make it alright. Also ... a trade for Wright would likely thin out the farm system, if a trade for Wright is even possible without Brett Jackson. I'd have to think one of our high upside, low level guys would also have to be shipped out (Mets could use a shortstop for the future, so Marco Hernandez makes some sense), and McNutt would likely have to be there.