2012 - Throw away/Go for it?

[Guest]

I think Szczur could be ready by 2013, but ready to be key help? 2014 seems more likely to me as when he could take a full-time job, but it probably won't be 2015 until he's a solid, key contributor. That is assuming he adjusts and develops. I like Brett, have defended him a ton and argued that he's a bit under-appreciated, but even I don't think he's going to be key help as soon as next year. You know I like Flaherty a lot more than LeMahieu, despite seeing positive signs when I saw DJ earlier this year, but both of them likely have to move to a corner role, and neither of them are locks to be regular players (still think Flaherty, if he settles in at 3rd, might be a .260-.270/.350/.450 type perhaps). Utility players are useful, but utility players can also be found with relative ease.

 

Watkins might be somewhat under-appreciated, but that's because he had such an uneven season. If he shows that his surge was legit, then he becomes arguably our top 2nd base prospect in the upper levels.

Vitters hater. :)

 

I can't wait to see the organization work with Josh on his approach at the plate. "The Cubs Way" stands to benefit him as much or more than anyone else in the system. If a better approach can be taught, Vitters and Lake could be in for huge jumps over the next couple years. I guess we'll have to see if it is possible.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Forgot about Vitters. Vitters is going to be the man soon enough, unless he isn't then disregard.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

As for the other points above -

 

I think Szczur could be ready by 2013, but ready to be key help? 2014 seems more likely to me as when he could take a full-time job, but it probably won't be 2015 until he's a solid, key contributor. That is assuming he adjusts and develops. I like Brett, have defended him a ton and argued that he's a bit under-appreciated, but even I don't think he's going to be key help as soon as next year. You know I like Flaherty a lot more than LeMahieu, despite seeing positive signs when I saw DJ earlier this year, but both of them likely have to move to a corner role, and neither of them are locks to be regular players (still think Flaherty, if he settles in at 3rd, might be a .260-.270/.350/.450 type perhaps). Utility players are useful, but utility players can also be found with relative ease.

 

Watkins might be somewhat under-appreciated, but that's because he had such an uneven season. If he shows that his surge was legit, then he becomes arguably our top 2nd base prospect in the upper levels.

 

I'm not a huge Flaherty fan. He's been older than his leagues and slow to pick them up the whole time...Vanderbilt's a cool school to find pitching, but I'm still a little iffy looking for offense there. Also, I'm still firmly in the camp that LeMahieu could handle 2B full time defensively and it's more about his bat.

 

I also consider what you're saying here as even more reason to pursue elite FA talent. It'll make it alot easier for someone like Szcur to make an impact earlier or someone like LeMahieu to find his niche (IMO). To me it'd be cementing the foundation that is Castro, Geo, and the bullpen from the farm, and forces the issue on improving ASAP.

[Guest]

I also consider what you're saying here as even more reason to pursue elite FA talent. It'll make it alot easier for someone like Szcur to make an impact earlier or someone like LeMahieu to find his niche (IMO).

Szczur's going to be ready to make an impact when he's ready to make an impact. I've got a lot more confidence in this management to let a young player break into the lineup whether he struggles at first or not. After that, how quickly that player matures into an impact guy is pretty independent of who else is in the lineup.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Szczur's going to be ready to make an impact when he's ready to make an impact. I've got a lot more confidence in this management to let a young player break into the lineup whether he struggles at first or not. After that, how quickly that player matures into an impact guy is pretty independent of who else is in the lineup.

 

While for the most part it's true. It's alot easier to make an impact when you're a fast guy who gets on base if there's someone to drive you in...I realize that baseball is an individual sport and all that, but a lineup has to have some kind of synergy in it. I find it hard to believe that having a Pujols or even a Fielder won't have a positive effect on the players in the lineup a hole...especially the young and impressionable ones who'll watch them work.

[toonsterwu]

KKG - the question isn't whether or not Fielder or Pujols fits the Cubs, the question I bring up is whether or not the Cubs fit them, which none of us can answer but is something that is left out of the discussion in the excitement on adding them. If we're honest about how we assess the Cubs (and keep in mind, I tend to think one of them will probably end up with the Cubs, but I expect Theo and Co. to be very active early on to make the team more attractive), the team has 1 good offensive player right now, 1 above average offensive player, 1 minor league positional asset that is viewed as likely to provide key help in the next 3 years, a bunch of positional question marks, 1 good SP, 1 4/5 starter, and a solid pen. The system, a system I like, is a weak, bottom-third system relative to the fact that most of the prime talent is far away. I think it's a fair question to ask, prior to the off-season, if this is the type of club that a big time FA wants to go to. I think they need to be very active early on, to shore up some positions, to try and convince one of them (likely Fielder because I still think Pujols stays in St. Louis) to come.

I think you're understating the talent on the roster. I know you're trying to take an unbiased, outsider perspective, but I'm not sure that's really how the team is perceived. I also think Aramis gets extended at least through his option year before the FA period starts.

 

That gives:

 

SS: Castro is a rising star

3B: One of the best hitting 3B in the game

C: Even in his down years he's above average for a C

CF: Almost the definition of an average hitter

LF: For all his flaws, he was still an above average hitter at the plate

 

There's a reason we were around average in run production despite pathetic production from RF and below average production from 2B and 1B. Upgrade 1B with one of the studs and the offense will be well above average. All you have to sell is that the rotation will get a significant upgrade and I think you can sell these guys on a plan.

 

Plus, they know they're signing for more than just 2012. Ricketts, Theo & Hoyer can obviously sell them on a long-term plan where the Cubs will likely have the highest NL payroll over the FA's tenure with the team, combined with the talent and vision on the front office to build around the star.

 

This is not like trying to convince someone to play in Baltimore.

 

Tim, keep in mind my phrasing in that. I said, when the offseason starts. If they resign Aramis, that's a different equation from where we are entering the offseason. But ... the way I'm looking at the team right now isn't all that different from you - 1 good offensive player (Castro), one above average offensive player (Soto). You know I like Brett Jackson and I think Brett Jackson will be fine (still think his absolute ceiling, something few guys reach, is under-sold, but he hasn't done enough to challenge that notion), but I think it's hard to be certain that he'll definitely be average or better in his rookie year. I think a case can be made that Soriano was an average hitter in 2011 (but weren't his wOBA below average?), but it's going to be another year, and it's hard to imagine him stopping the decline. At best, he stalls it.

 

The positive aspect is, as someone noted, that the market for Fielder/Pujols may not be as large as it seems. Now, as noted, if the resign Aramis, it's a different equation. I wonder how heavily Theo will push to resign Aramis, though, and I wonder how much of a discount Aramis is willing to take. Aramis just doesn't seem like the type of guy that Theo would give a long term deal to at a high rate, but then again, this is a different situation than he ever had in Boston, and a ugly looking 3rd base market, so maybe he changes his approach. That said, if he doesn't, would Aramis give a significant discount? Perhaps, don't know. If they resign Aramis, then things look a bit different, giving us two good offensive players, and the picture looks a bit better.

 

My secondary point, as much as anything, was this - there's a lot of focus on signing these first basemen (and probably most of the big ticket items), but in all likelihood, the first basemen signings will come relatively late, and we'll likely have enough movement beforehand. Those moves might play a factor in influencing the decisions of the top guys.

 

* I guess it should be added that, skimming over Aramis' contract on Cots right now, it's possible that they exercise the option and he simply sticks around. I doubt it, as I imagine he would want a long term deal.

[toonsterwu]

I think Szczur could be ready by 2013, but ready to be key help? 2014 seems more likely to me as when he could take a full-time job, but it probably won't be 2015 until he's a solid, key contributor. That is assuming he adjusts and develops. I like Brett, have defended him a ton and argued that he's a bit under-appreciated, but even I don't think he's going to be key help as soon as next year. You know I like Flaherty a lot more than LeMahieu, despite seeing positive signs when I saw DJ earlier this year, but both of them likely have to move to a corner role, and neither of them are locks to be regular players (still think Flaherty, if he settles in at 3rd, might be a .260-.270/.350/.450 type perhaps). Utility players are useful, but utility players can also be found with relative ease.

 

Watkins might be somewhat under-appreciated, but that's because he had such an uneven season. If he shows that his surge was legit, then he becomes arguably our top 2nd base prospect in the upper levels.

Vitters hater. :)

 

I can't wait to see the organization work with Josh on his approach at the plate. "The Cubs Way" stands to benefit him as much or more than anyone else in the system. If a better approach can be taught, Vitters and Lake could be in for huge jumps over the next couple years. I guess we'll have to see if it is possible.

 

I don't hate Vitters, but where does he fit right now? He's not going to first? LF? RF? If he does, his bat is going to have to really step forward. It's possible, but it's hard to write in Vitters as a key productive player for the near future, for me.

 

I'm not so sure that Vitters isn't going to be sent packing this offseason, tbh. It really wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs are pushing Vitters as Theo's compensation, but that's just a guess.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why do people keep thinking that a team with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

 

These threads are so fun to re-read.

[Sammy Sofa]

Three [expletive] years ago.

 

I was so young and excited.

[Guest]

Why do people keep thinking that a team with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

 

These threads are so fun to re-read.

 

That's totally me.

 

I found it and am totally going to cop out by bringing up that the new CBA wasn't announced for like a month. That and I didn't know that Tom Ricketts is poor.

Edited December 2, 2014 by David

[sneakypower]

The thing to keep in mind with the situation the Cubs are in is that we have a lot of decent to good young players coming up from the minors over the next couple of years. Jackson, McNutt, Vitters, Castillo, Whitenack, Struck, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Cabrera, etc., are all guys who project to be major leaguers of some value

well, this stood out...boy did we ever have some serious stockholm syndrome with our shitty farm system

[Sammy Sofa]

Did?

 

http://38.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m9qwoaqGgV1qaldqoo1_250.gif

[treebird]

Did?

 

http://38.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m9qwoaqGgV1qaldqoo1_250.gif

 

9.6

[UMFan83]

The thing to keep in mind with the situation the Cubs are in is that we have a lot of decent to good young players coming up from the minors over the next couple of years. Jackson, McNutt, Vitters, Castillo, Whitenack, Struck, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Cabrera, etc., are all guys who project to be major leaguers of some value

well, this stood out...boy did we ever have some serious stockholm syndrome with our [expletive] farm system

 

Geez only Castillo, LeMaheieu, and Flaherty became major leaguers with any value at all and 2 of them with other teams.

[bukie]

I actually don't feel too bad about my thoughts on the matter 3 years ago, just wrong with the assumptions that the Dodger FO would continue to be a mess longer than it was and that the Pirates wouldn't be able to afford McCutchen long term. Said the only special long term player they had at the time was Castro, and that Fielder for 4-5 years was a better bet than Pujols over the same time (before each got 8-9 year contracts and the Cubs traded for Rizzo, which was a move I liked better than either anyway).

[KingCubsFan]

When is the last time that a major market team with a high payroll intentionally put a [expletive] product on the field so they could rebuild from within and wait for a farm system to be built from the ground up?

David, you dropped this gem too.

[Guest]

When is the last time that a major market team with a high payroll intentionally put a [expletive] product on the field so they could rebuild from within and wait for a farm system to be built from the ground up?

David, you dropped this gem too.

 

See PTR + CBA (mainly PTR) cop out a couple posts up, re-use here.

 

Seriously, though, at the time we were getting reports of a $200M payroll and [expletive] like that. What a disappointment.

[Tyrant]

Why do people keep thinking that a team with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

 

These threads are so fun to re-read.

 

for you

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why do people keep thinking that a team with the wherewithal to spend close to $150M on payroll is going to intentionally throw a garbage Major League product on the field so that they can build their farm system (as though one would preclude you from doing the other)?

 

These threads are so fun to re-read.

 

for you

 

The best kind of fun.

[Tracer Bullet]

half the first page consists of posts from david and nuts. half the last page consists of posts from david and nuts.