Zambrano says he is retiring

[NCCubFan]

Also, it's been implied that there have been several other incidents that were covered up by the team that we didn't hear about. This was probably just the last straw after many, many warnings.

Hendry himself pretty much said this.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I can't believe anyone is defending Zambrano after all the crap he's done over the years; send him packing to the AL and be done with it

 

I can't believe anybody would rather have Casey Coleman pitching for us next season than Carlos Zambrano... especially when we wont be getting anything in return for Zambrano.

 

If I had to bet on who would have a better season next year, it'd be Zambrano, but not by a landslide or anything. Zambrano's got a 4.5ish FIP, is on the wrong side of 30 and has almost 2,000 innings on his arm. The peripherals this season point to long-term problems.

 

Okay, maybe Coleman is a bad example, but it shouldn't be that hard to find pitchers capable of doing what Zambrano's been doing.

 

I've been saying this for a while now, but Z is one of those guys who kinda falls into a bunch of cracks in modern statistical evaluations. FIP undersells him in large part because it assumes all pitchers have equal skill when it comes to controlling the running game. Normally that's an assumption that wont make a huge difference, but Z definitely belongs at the extreme end of the spectrum, as many pickoffs as he gets and as few stolen bases as he allows. FIP also by its very definition assumes all fielders are the same... so a pitchers own defensive value isn't reflected in FIP. I'd peg Z as above average in that regard as well.

 

So there's a couple factors artificially inflating his FIP... is it going to make a huge difference? No, probably not. But can it add up to a quarter or a third of a run? Sure it can. And then there's his bat to reconcile. His batting prowess doesn't show up in FIP or WAR or anywhere people would typically look. But I don't think anybody is going to question that he's an extremely good hitter for a pitcher... contributing probably somewhere in the realm of an extra 5 runs per year with the bat. That's roughly equal to slicing another quarter or third of a point off of his FIP.

 

Even after all of that, is he an ace? No. He's not anymore. But he's a pretty equivalent package to a pitcher who is average at hitting, fielding, and controlling the running game while posting an ERA or FIP in the mid to high 3's. Would anybody be this eager to trash and unload a guy if Ryan Dempster had a bad attitude?

 

 

This to me smacks of the sabermetric equivalent of "defense and intangibles make up the difference between what I want to believe the guy is worth and what the stats say he is worth."

 

He's got 20 PO+A this year and two pickoffs. I don't know how many we are supposed to be giving him credit for beyond an average pitcher, but that can't be that many.

 

Obviously his offense should be taken into account. He'd be on pace to be a 2 WAR player instead of a 1.3ish. But still, a 2 WAR player is nothing to be excited or worked up about.

[javy knows my name]

Please stop talking he's actually going to retire. He's not, and it has nothing to do with the team "letting" him do so. His agent and the union have likely (and rightly) pointed out to him that walking away from approx. $23 million is beyond moronic.

 

I agree that it's really unlikely, but I also think if anyone were to decide to leave that kind of money on the table it would be Z. It's possible that he's run out of people to blame for his dwindling success and may just not enjoy going out there anymore because he's not up to his own standard of play. He very likely has too much pride to phone it in and count his money next year, and the trade that he'd be likely to force could potentially offend him as well. He's also just stubborn enough to tell his agent and the mlbpa to go [expletive] themselves.

 

Allowing for ALL that, I think there's a 10% chance he retires. Jesus, I just did this up PTI-style.

[Backtobanks]

Please stop talking he's actually going to retire. He's not, and it has nothing to do with the team "letting" him do so. His agent and the union have likely (and rightly) pointed out to him that walking away from approx. $23 million is beyond moronic.

 

I agree that it's really unlikely, but I also think if anyone were to decide to leave that kind of money on the table it would be Z. It's possible that he's run out of people to blame for his dwindling success and may just not enjoy going out there anymore because he's not up to his own standard of play. He very likely has too much pride to phone it in and count his money next year, and the trade that he'd be likely to force could potentially offend him as well. He's also just stubborn enough to tell his agent and the mlbpa to go [expletive] themselves.

 

Allowing for ALL that, I think there's a 10% chance he retires. Jesus, I just did this up PTI-style.

 

There's no way Zambrano leaves that much money on the table. Also, his agent and the player's union would certainly push him to return.

[javy knows my name]

Please stop talking he's actually going to retire. He's not, and it has nothing to do with the team "letting" him do so. His agent and the union have likely (and rightly) pointed out to him that walking away from approx. $23 million is beyond moronic.

 

I agree that it's really unlikely, but I also think if anyone were to decide to leave that kind of money on the table it would be Z. It's possible that he's run out of people to blame for his dwindling success and may just not enjoy going out there anymore because he's not up to his own standard of play. He very likely has too much pride to phone it in and count his money next year, and the trade that he'd be likely to force could potentially offend him as well. He's also just stubborn enough to tell his agent and the mlbpa to go [expletive] themselves.

 

Allowing for ALL that, I think there's a 10% chance he retires. Jesus, I just did this up PTI-style.

 

There's no way Zambrano leaves that much money on the table. Also, his agent and the player's union would certainly push him to return.

 

Hmm, never really thought of it that way before

[Sammy Sofa]

Please stop talking he's actually going to retire. He's not, and it has nothing to do with the team "letting" him do so. His agent and the union have likely (and rightly) pointed out to him that walking away from approx. $23 million is beyond moronic.

 

I agree that it's really unlikely, but I also think if anyone were to decide to leave that kind of money on the table it would be Z. It's possible that he's run out of people to blame for his dwindling success and may just not enjoy going out there anymore because he's not up to his own standard of play. He very likely has too much pride to phone it in and count his money next year, and the trade that he'd be likely to force could potentially offend him as well. He's also just stubborn enough to tell his agent and the mlbpa to go [expletive] themselves.

 

Allowing for ALL that, I think there's a 10% chance he retires. Jesus, I just did this up PTI-style.

 

There's no way Zambrano leaves that much money on the table. Also, his agent and the player's union would certainly push him to return.

 

Hmm, never really thought of it that way before

 

Yeah, that's why I mentioned the union; they're going to be VERY interested if he's trying to walk away from that kind of money. They're the same reason I don't see Pujols taking the severe hometown discount many seem to assume he'll end up taking. The union simply will not let players leave that much on the table, especially when it establishes a precedent detrimental to other players down the line. In Zambrano's case it's arguably a further hindrance to any talented player with any kind of "emotional" history trying to max out a new contract.

[javy knows my name]

Please stop talking he's actually going to retire. He's not, and it has nothing to do with the team "letting" him do so. His agent and the union have likely (and rightly) pointed out to him that walking away from approx. $23 million is beyond moronic.

 

I agree that it's really unlikely, but I also think if anyone were to decide to leave that kind of money on the table it would be Z. It's possible that he's run out of people to blame for his dwindling success and may just not enjoy going out there anymore because he's not up to his own standard of play. He very likely has too much pride to phone it in and count his money next year, and the trade that he'd be likely to force could potentially offend him as well. He's also just stubborn enough to tell his agent and the mlbpa to go [expletive] themselves.

 

Allowing for ALL that, I think there's a 10% chance he retires. Jesus, I just did this up PTI-style.

 

There's no way Zambrano leaves that much money on the table. Also, his agent and the player's union would certainly push him to return.

 

Hmm, never really thought of it that way before

 

Yeah, that's why I mentioned the union; they're going to be VERY interested if he's trying to walk away from that kind of money. They're the same reason I don't see Pujols taking the severe hometown discount many seem to assume he'll end up taking. The union simply will not let players leave that much on the table, especially when it establishes a precedent detrimental to other players down the line. In Zambrano's case it's arguably a further hindrance to any talented player with any kind of "emotional" history trying to max out a new contract.

 

I was being sarcastic. I addressed your union argument, but was uninspired by the response I got from B2B. What could the union realistically do to keep someone who wants to walk away from that kind of money? What incentive is left if it really does get that far?

 

Pujols is a completely different story, and you know it.

[Sammy Sofa]

I was being sarcastic. I addressed your union argument, but was uninspired by the response I got from B2B. What could the union realistically do to keep someone who wants to walk away from that kind of money? What incentive is left if it really does get that far?

 

I doubt they even have to do much, or that they'll even get involved; Zambrano isn't walking away. It sounds like his agent already slapped some sense into him.

 

Pujols is a completely different story, and you know it.

 

There's absolutely no way the union isn't all over him if he accepts less than $25 million a year and/or at least 8 years. That completely plays into Pujols' "good guy image," because there's no way he wants to be painted the villain like that. If he takes a discount to stay in St. Louis it's not going to be less than those figures.

[javy knows my name]

I was being sarcastic. I addressed your union argument, but was uninspired by the response I got from B2B. What could the union realistically do to keep someone who wants to walk away from that kind of money? What incentive is left if it really does get that far?

 

I doubt they even have to do much, or that they'll even get involved; Zambrano isn't walking away. It sounds like his agent already slapped some sense into him.

 

Pujols is a completely different story, and you know it.

 

There's absolutely no way the union isn't all over him if he accepts less than $25 million a year and/or at least 8 years. That completely plays into Pujols' "good guy image," because there's no way he wants to be painted the villain like that. If he takes a discount to stay in St. Louis it's not going to be less than those figures.

 

I'm agreeing with you that they'll apply serious pressure to Pujols, which he'll have to account for because he wants to continue playing. If Zambrano truly didn't want to play, the MLBPA could piss and moan all they wanted, but ultimately wouldn't be able to incentivize him to stick around. But I've heard his agent's comments, and arguing this hypothetical is a waste of time because it's such a long shot.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm agreeing with you that they'll apply serious pressure to Pujols, which he'll have to account for because he wants to continue playing. If Zambrano truly didn't want to play, the MLBPA could piss and moan all they wanted, but ultimately wouldn't be able to incentivize him to stick around. But I've heard his agent's comments, and arguing this hypothetical is a waste of time because it's such a long shot.

 

My thinking with Zambrano is that it wouldn't be pressure so much as more people basically yelling, "HEY, IDIOT. IT'S $23 MILLION DOLLARS."

[J.R.]

Sorry if this was posted already. Nothing shocking.

 

But Hendry claimed there were some problems with Zambrano that have been kept under wraps and did not elaborate.

 

"We've had other instances of him not being the teammate I would (want him to) aspire to be," he said. "And certainly not all of that is public. You can tell by the sanction we're trying to enforce that it's not tolerated, and it's not right for the other 24. It's just totally uncalled for."

 

Yes, nothing shocking about Demp and Jimbo crucifying a "bad teammate" by being terrible teammates themselves, jumping in front of the reporters to blast one of the most passionate Cubs in recent memory.

 

Soriano did what was right. Wells refused to comment. They are good teammates.

[Elrhino]

Please, there is probably a laundry list of issues behind the scenes a mile long that are well known in baseball circles, which was why no GM was touching Zambrano with a 50 foot pole at the trade deadline no matter how much Hendry indicated his willingness to eat remaining money. Hendry isn't destroying his value, and no one is going to rob him of Zambrano because they know he's desperate to sell. No.One.Wants.Him. He's long passed the point of critical mass where the nutjobbery and contract outweighs his effectiveness as a pitcher. He's gone off into Carl Everett/Albert Haynesworth territory. He's a lost cause and a sunken cost, at this point. Finding some way to get his money back is the best case scenario for the Cubs.

[Backtobanks]

 

I was being sarcastic. I addressed your union argument, but was uninspired by the response I got from B2B. What could the union realistically do to keep someone who wants to walk away from that kind of money? What incentive is left if it really does get that far?

 

 

Nobody can do anything to keep someone from walking away from that kind of money. That includes his agent, his wife, his friends, the union, etc. The point is that everybody realizes that Zambrano is immature (or emotionally unstable) enough to say things without thinking about the consequences. After saying something that jeopardizes his career, I'm sure his agent, wife, friends, union, etc. made him realize the error of his ways.

[dew1679666265]

Please, there is probably a laundry list of issues behind the scenes a mile long that are well known in baseball circles, which was why no GM was touching Zambrano with a 50 foot pole at the trade deadline no matter how much Hendry indicated his willingness to eat remaining money. Hendry isn't destroying his value, and no one is going to rob him of Zambrano because they know he's desperate to sell. No.One.Wants.Him. He's long passed the point of critical mass where the nutjobbery and contract outweighs his effectiveness as a pitcher. He's gone off into Carl Everett/Albert Haynesworth territory. He's a lost cause and a sunken cost, at this point. Finding some way to get his money back is the best case scenario for the Cubs.

 

Albert was just traded for a 5th round pick, so I'm not sure he's a good comparison.

[Splendid Splinter]

I know it's not 23 mil, but Gil Meche retired before this season (although it was cuz of injury or didn't want to risk more injuries I believe) and left like what??? 11 mil??? Don't remember if MLBPA had a fit about him leaving all that money on the table though...

 

If Z really wants OUT, there's no one on the planet that can make him return.

[Sammy Sofa]

A career-ending injury is a much different issue.

 

It's moot anyway. He doesn't want to retire.

[mul21]

A career-ending injury is a much different issue.

 

It's moot anyway. He doesn't want to retire.

 

Well, it wasn't technically a career ending injury. He retired instead of having surgery. It's still a completely different situation than Z though.

 

Unless of course he's hurt and hasn't bothered to tell anybody. Which, really, given his history, would that really surprise anybody?

[davearm2]

Why the heck would the MLBPA give a crap about Zambrano retiring?

 

It doesn't set any sort of precedent that would impact anyone else in the future.

 

Pujols is going to set the bar, so obviously MLBPA wants that bar as high as possible.

 

There's no bar with Zambrano. If he doesn't want the money he negotiated for, BFD.

[TruffleShuffle]

And are GMs really so stupid that they base the amount they are willing to give up for a player on the team's public comments?

 

No, but Hendry typically talks himself into a corner by enraging the meatheads to the point that no solution is acceptable other than the banishment of said player. GMs will lowball him because they know he HAS to make a move.

 

Had all parties just shut up and kept the clubhouse business in the clubhouse, no one would be wise to any of this today.

 

this is just silly. zambrano has had public spats and meltdowns just about every year. how are the cubs going to hide it when he comes out and says they suck and play like a AAA team? and even if they managed to keep it behind closed doors, players and clubhouse attendants talk, and everyone would know that zambrano's act had worn thin with his teammates.

 

i like Z, but he's quite obviously got some serious self-control issues and he no longer is a very good pitcher, so nobody was going to have much interest in him. i don't think there's anything the cubs have done to diminish his trade value; he's done that on his own.

[Tarver]

Hendry is such a [expletive] joke... We are quite literally the only team in baseball that disciplines guys for being dicks.

 

Hendry is a joke, but your position on this is laughably naive. Awful as they are, Hendry and Quade are still in management. You can't let your employees run roughshod over you like this, or you run the risk of everyone doing it. I'm sure both of them still aspire to work in baseball after we sack them; letting Z have his way again would only undermine whatever respect they've earned in MLB over the years. Not that I care, but Z instigated this, not the FO.

 

And Z isn't worth the trouble anyway. You and JR act like it's still 08. His #'s suck.

 

So what you're saying is that the other 29 teams in baseball not only constantly discipline players who aren't actually breaking any major rules, but that they do it so often that Hendry and Quade would be laughed out of baseball for not doing so? That's interesting, because I can't think of a single instance by a team other than the Cubs... at least not at the major league level.

 

Oh, and Z's numbers don't suck as badly as you think they do... especially when compared to his likely replacements for the rotation next year.

 

That's not what I said, it's what you typed. And again, this incident isn't bad in a vacuum. But Z's history warrants discipline. He had to know he's on a short leash after last year.

 

And we don't know who's replacing him yet. That argument can wait until we do.

 

I'm failing to see the part where I was wrong in my interpretation of what you wrote.

 

I said we're the only team in baseball that does this.

 

You said I was being "laughably naive" and implied Hendry/Quade would have trouble getting jobs if they didn't do this.

 

I asked for examples of other teams doing this.

 

What am I missing?

 

The Marlins, Orioles, and Mariners recently. Our management sucks, but I don't have many complaints about how they handled this. Z's been given more than enough rope.

[Tarver]

Sure, they should've just allowed him to have his way as always. It's worked so well to date.

 

it kind of has. 125-81 record, 123 era+, etc.

 

Trending down.

 

ok, so by switching topics, you implicitly admit you're wrong that it hasn't worked out before now?

 

I wasn't clear enough. Z's #s are certainly trending down, but I meant the failure of previous efforts to reform/discipline him. How many more chances can they give him?

[BeerHere]

Prediction: Z gets traded to the WSox this winter for scraps and minor salary relief. You read it here first.

[Butterscup1679666578]

wrong

[J.R.]

this is just silly. zambrano has had public spats and meltdowns just about every year. how are the cubs going to hide it when he comes out and says they suck and play like a AAA team? and even if they managed to keep it behind closed doors, players and clubhouse attendants talk, and everyone would know that zambrano's act had worn thin with his teammates.

 

i like Z, but he's quite obviously got some serious self-control issues and he no longer is a very good pitcher, so nobody was going to have much interest in him. i don't think there's anything the cubs have done to diminish his trade value; he's done that on his own.

 

Well, they did suck, they did play like an AAA team.

 

Rumors from unnamed sources are one thing, a string of statements from the Cubs GM is something else entirely. The organization's interests were not served by Jim Hendry calling Z a bad teammate, nor by him accepting blame for ruining Bobby Cox Night, an assertion made by no one until Hendry mentioned it. There was no reason for the organization to deny that Z had returned his stuff to Turner Field. Let it die!

 

Forget the trade possibilities - it's just bad form. Hendry, Demp and everyone else who commented unnecessarily kept the quote machine running all weekend. Seems to me that some people are getting their revenge because Z spoke for the fans and called them out for their piss-poor performance.

[UMFan83]

Prediction: Z gets traded to the WSox this winter for scraps and minor salary relief. You read it here first.

 

I thought for sure this post was going to end with "and wins the Cy Young next year".