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Posted

But its critical to the point. If Zambrano gives you 25 above average starts 4 ridiculous amazing and 4 ridiculous bad start, but randy wells gives you 10 above average, 5 average, 10 below average, 3 great, 1 amazing, and 4 ridiculous bad, who is your more valuable pitcher even if their ERAs and other overall numbers are comparable.

In 29 games Z has you with a chance to win and with wells its only 18.

 

I know you know this, but the mean and the median are not the same.

ETA: All of this is theoretical, and not based on any observance of the stats other than a cursory glance at Wells game log. Insert names James Wilson and Gregory House if anyone has a problem with the above.

 

If that's the case, we should be able to compare the number of really bad starts Zambrano has compared to other pitchers in some way, and see if it's really out of line. That's a lot more involved than just saying "He had some really bad starts, so let's not count those."

 

40.5% of Dempster's earned runs allowed came in 6 of his 26 starts

62.7% of Garza's earned runs allowed came in 7 of his 24 starts

50% of Zambrano's earned runs allowed came in 6 of his 24 starts

 

I'm sure if we looked at all the more or less reliable pitchers in the league, you'd see most of them fall into the same "boom or bust" pattern.

 

10% more in the same number of starts is a huge difference between Demp and Z. and Garza has an ERA a full point lower than Z. I think you reinforced my point. and again, I'm not saying the original statement was true...I'm saying IF its true, its relevant.

 

Also those percentages mean very little (to this particular discussion) as Demp may have surrendered 7 runs in 6 innings and Z 7 runs in 3 innings. Again I'm not arguing the numbers, just the logic. IF it is true, its relevant.

Bring on the histogram!

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Posted
Carlos Zambrano’s Season Ends

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [september 2 at 9:25am CST]

Carlos Zambrano will get another paycheck this year, but he won’t pitch another inning. The Cubs announced that the 30-year-old right-hander will remain at home for the remainder of the 2011 season. Once his 30-day suspension ends on September 11th, the Cubs will continue paying him.

 

Zambrano would not have enough time to prepare for games once his suspension ends, according to the Cubs. MLB, the Cubs and the MLB Players Association will process the grievance that the union filed on Zambrano’s behalf during the offseason.

 

The MLBPA filed a grievance for Zambrano after the Cubs placed him on the disqualified list following an August outburst. Zambrano could lose as much as one sixth of his $17.875MM salary this year if the Cubs' decision stands, since players don't get paid on the disqualified list. He is under contract for $18MM next year and his contract includes a $19.25MM vesting player option for 2013.

 

Zambrano finishes the season with a 4.82 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 42.4% ground ball rate in 145 2/3 innings - pedestrian enough numbers that the Cubs will be absorbing most of Zambrano's salary in any offseason trade.

 

 

He may not be retiring, but his season, and likely tenure with the Cubs is at an end.

 

Just out of curiosity, how often is it that a big name, big money player is publicly railroaded off his team? Not often, Manny Ramirez is the only other non Cubs example I can think of in recent years, and The Cubs have done it 3 times in the past 6 with Sosa, Bradley, and now Z.

Posted

Official Cubs Press Release:

 

CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs today provided the following update to the Carlos Zambrano grievance process, which is not yet resolved.

 

Carlos Zambrano will remain at home for the remainder of the 2011 baseball season and the Cubs will resume paying Zambrano his salary at the end of the 30-day suspension. The suspension is scheduled to run through Sunday, September 11, leaving insufficient preparation time for Zambrano to pitch again this season.

 

Major League Baseball, the Major League Baseball Players Association and the Cubs will process the Union’s grievance during the offseason.

 

Since the grievance remains unresolved, the Cubs will not comment further at this time.

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