Tim Wilken

[dfnowak]

If he's had monetary restrictions and has produced decent to good drafts, then it would logically follow that with more money to spend he could produce some very good to great drafts.

 

Except they weren't producing good drafts.

 

You don't think Wilken's produced good drafts? Really? Where did these good prospects we have in our system come from?

 

What good prospects?

 

Yes, it's been 5 years and the Cubs have a mediocre system. 5 years of good drafts would have produced a much better system by now.

 

Agreed. Outside of BJax, McNutt, Szczur, and Cashner, where are all of these good prospects the Cubs have drafted that you speak of?

[SouthSideRyan]

If he's had monetary restrictions and has produced decent to good drafts, then it would logically follow that with more money to spend he could produce some very good to great drafts.

 

Except they weren't producing good drafts.

 

You don't think Wilken's produced good drafts? Really? Where did these good prospects we have in our system come from?

 

What good prospects?

 

Yes, it's been 5 years and the Cubs have a mediocre system. 5 years of good drafts would have produced a much better system by now.

 

Agreed. Outside of BJax, McNutt, Szczur, and Cashner, where are all of these good prospects the Cubs have drafted that you speak of?

 

Looking back, '06 is the only draft I really hate. There's a lot of intrigue from the 3 drafts prior to this year. And yeah, lots of franchises have these guys, just saying they were mediocre at worst.

2010

 

Szczur

Reggie Golden

Ben Wells

Aaron Kurcz

Dallas Beeler

 

2009

 

Jackson

DJL

Austin Kirk

Robert Whitenack

Justin Bour

Nick Struck

 

2008

 

Cashner

Ryan Flaherty

Chris Carpenter

Jeff Beliveau

Logan Watkins

[SouthSideRyan]

On the sad flipside, Wilken's drafts for the Cubs have produced -0.2 WAR.

 

On the how bad was John Stockstill side, his last 2 drafts with the Cubs produced -1.8 WAR.

 

Tyler Colvin ('06) was the first first rounder to make the majors since Mark Prior ('01)

[Guest]

Except they weren't producing good drafts.

 

You don't think Wilken's produced good drafts? Really? Where did these good prospects we have in our system come from?

 

What good prospects?

 

Yes, it's been 5 years and the Cubs have a mediocre system. 5 years of good drafts would have produced a much better system by now.

 

Agreed. Outside of BJax, McNutt, Szczur, and Cashner, where are all of these good prospects the Cubs have drafted that you speak of?

 

Looking back, '06 is the only draft I really hate. There's a lot of intrigue from the 3 drafts prior to this year. And yeah, lots of franchises have these guys, just saying they were mediocre at worst.

2010

 

Szczur

Reggie Golden

Ben Wells

Aaron Kurcz

Dallas Beeler

 

2009

 

Jackson

DJL

Austin Kirk

Robert Whitenack

Justin Bour

Nick Struck

 

2008

 

Cashner

Ryan Flaherty

Chris Carpenter

Jeff Beliveau

Logan Watkins

 

I'd add Geiger in '10, McNutt in '09 and Cerda in '08.

[toonsterwu]

2 cents on Wilken's drafts:

 

06 - I've always been inclined to give him a mulligan on this one, due to the missing picks as a result of the pen signings, but if you want to chalk this up as a below average draft, I've got no significant issues. The over-slot misses (Andersen, Rundle, Huseby) were very disappointing. The draft and follows (that I remember) were disappointing - Jovan Rosa flashed a healthy amount of potential but never developed, and Jordan Latham is only in A+ now and has had off-field issues. Jake Renshaw did help net us Trachsel a few years back, for whatever it's worth. It wouldn't surprise me if Steve Clevenger was the most useful piece from this draft, as a backup backstop. Marcus Hatley, Nate Samson, Blake Parker, and Matt Camp are the only other guys left in the system (I think), besides Shark/Colvin/Latham/Clevenger. The most intriguing of the group may be the hard throwing Hatley, who has taken the long road but is showing some ability that had some folks compare him to Michael Wuertz. Outside of Colvin going a half-round early, I don't recall anyone being an over-draft of that level (IIRC, maybe Muldowney, but it's been awhile).

 

07 - I view this as an average draft, not great, not below-average, though. Vitters is ... Vitters. No need to beat that bush again, as we do it enough in other places. Donaldson will likely get some more opportunities in the big and was a key part in that Harden deal. Thomas never developed, but did get to the upper levels. Darwin Barney should be able to fill a utility role in the bigs. Casey Lambert was hurt and is still working his way back. He had good LOOGY potential at one point, though. Guyer has really blossomed in the last year and seems quite likely to see some decent time in the bigs, and Marquez Smith is a capable upper level minor leaguer who might be able to fill a bench role in the bigs at some point if the right situation occurs. James Russell is a very solid pen lefty if utilized as a LOOGY (just gets shelled against righties). Things weren't especially pretty after the Russell pick - Craig Muschko had a few decent years in our system, Sasser and Sommer filled system roles. No star power (yet), but enough guys that will likely see the bigs that I think this can qualify as an average draft.

 

08 - This was the draft that was really exciting early on. It's since weakened a bit, as all drafts do as they work up the ladder. The pitching heavy draft really pushed our system rankings up the ladder. Cashner's rehab will be something to watch, as he offers the Cubs a legitimate TOR arm. Flaherty looks like a good bet to see time in the bigs, and has pop that makes it so that filling a corner role is fine, and pop that the system lacks. If Carpenter can figure out his control a bit, he's got a shot to stick in the pen. Jay Jackson was the early riser from this draft, and has since settled down, but still holds enough intrigue to think of him potentially making the bigs at some point. Matt Cerda's failure to succeed as a catcher was disappointing, but he's filling a solid enough role in the system. Casey Coleman, Luis Flores, Tony Campana, Jeff Beliveau, Logan Watkins, David Cales, Rebel Ridling have all filled useful roles in the system. The potential of Cashner's star power, plus a bevy of solid guys makes me think of this as an above average to good draft.

 

09 - It's probably even a touch early to really grade the 08 draft. BJax was a solid late first pick who should see the bigs at some point in 2012. LeMahieu has to keep developing pop, but he'll see time in the bigs. The three lefties are solid enough picks, and all three probably have decent shots to see some time in the bigs. Darvill still holds intrigue, but is a long way away. Whitenack was the big breakout guy until his injury. Here's hoping he bounces back. Charles Thomas/Justin Bour hold some intrigue. The late round finds of McNutt/Struck have been two of the bright spots of the draft for me. Far too early to make any big judgments on this draft, but I'm apt to lean to this draft as being above average to good for now. It is a draft that probably needs all the key guys named to develop (for it to be viewed as a solid to good draft), since the 11-30 rounds of the draft won't really have much of a return.

 

10 - I think most speak of this as the Hayden Simpson draft, but the exciting thing for me were the young prep arms taken.

[TruffleShuffle]

the 2006 draft was God-awful and the cubs actually spent money on later picks to get them for well above slot money. if you're going to drop big coin on guys like huseby, cliff andersen, rundle and samardzija then you have to hold the scouting guy accountable when those players don't pan out. they weren't even close on the first three either; none of them even made it to AA.

[Guest]

Cliff Andersen got a $155,000 bonus as a 9th rounder. That's like 6th round money, about $50,000 more than slot. So while he was overslotted, he certainly wasn't the significant overslot Samardzija, Huseby ($1.3 million as an 11th rounder) and Rundle ($500,000 as a 14th rounder) were.

[TruffleShuffle]

i think his was reported much higher at first, and i always end up lumping him in with huseby and rundle.

 

anyway, the point remains that they were all complete busts and if you're going to provide the money to make big later-round picks then your scouting director has to be on the hook for them.

[Guest]

Completely agreed but I'd rather go high-risk, high-ceiling and bust spectaculary instead of low-ceiling, cheap guys like Casey Lambert (6th rounder - $53,000 bonus), Ty Wright (7th rounder - $42,000 bonus) and Marquez Smith (8th rounder - $30,000 bonus).

[SouthSideRyan]

I obviously meant to include McNutt. Not a big Cerda fan.

[TruffleShuffle]

Completely agreed but I'd rather go high-risk, high-ceiling and bust spectaculary instead of low-ceiling, cheap guys like Casey Lambert (6th rounder - $53,000 bonus), Ty Wright (7th rounder - $42,000 bonus) and Marquez Smith (8th rounder - $30,000 bonus).

 

but sometimes those low-bonus college guys turn into sean marshall or jay jackson. granted the cases above were below-slot signings, but you get the point.

 

and i agree with the high-risk high-ceiling approach, though you obviously can't do that with every pick and you do need to mix in some of the lambert/wright/smith-type picks as well. but the thing is about those high-risk picks, you have to hit on some of those, and the cubs haven't been doing that. if you keep ending up with huseby/rundle-style washouts then you've wasted significant resources without any positive results.

[Rob]

i think his was reported much higher at first, and i always end up lumping him in with huseby and rundle.

 

anyway, the point remains that they were all complete busts and if you're going to provide the money to make big later-round picks then your scouting director has to be on the hook for them.

 

I absolutely refuse to label Samardzija as a bust until he's out of our system entirely... the way his peripherals absolutely refuse to stabilize from year to year, I wouldn't be any more shocked to see a K/9 of 13 next year with a BB/9 of 4, or the complete opposite. WILD CARD!

[dew1679666265]

What good prospects?

 

Yes, it's been 5 years and the Cubs have a mediocre system. 5 years of good drafts would have produced a much better system by now.

 

toonsterwu put it better than I ever could, but just to give you a quick list of the decent to good prospects in the Cubs' system who have been drafted by Wilken: BJax, McNutt, Szczur, Cashner, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Jay Jackson, Vitters, Ben Wells, Austin Kirk, Nick Struck, Whitenack, Barney, Golden, Alberto Cabrera, Kurcz, and others.

 

He's not had a great draft to date and I'd agree with toonster that he's had a couple good drafts, a couple average drafts (with the possibility of downgrading one from each of those) and a terrible draft (06). Open up the checkbook a bit more and you might see 1-2 great drafts in upcoming years. Really, depending on who we're able to sign and how guys develop, the 11 draft has real potential to be a great draft.

 

As for the Cubs having a mediocre system, they were well on their way according to some to having a top 10 system soon, but then they graduated Castro and Cashner and traded Hak Ju Lee, Chris Archer and Brandon Guyer - all top 10 prospects in the system. Any system that loses five of its top 10 prospects all at once is going to plummet the following season.

[dew1679666265]

I absolutely refuse to label Samardzija as a bust until he's out of our system entirely... the way his peripherals absolutely refuse to stabilize from year to year, I wouldn't be any more shocked to see a K/9 of 13 next year with a BB/9 of 4, or the complete opposite. WILD CARD!

 

At this point he's most definitely a disappointment - for the hype and money he came in with, anything short of a mid rotation starter would have been a disappointment. But if he can turn into a good middle reliever or a decent to good setup guy, I wouldn't label him a bust either.

[Guest]

What good prospects?

 

Yes, it's been 5 years and the Cubs have a mediocre system. 5 years of good drafts would have produced a much better system by now.

 

toonsterwu put it better than I ever could, but just to give you a quick list of the decent to good prospects in the Cubs' system who have been drafted by Wilken: BJax, McNutt, Szczur, Cashner, LeMaheieu, Flaherty, Jay Jackson, Vitters, Ben Wells, Austin Kirk, Nick Struck, Whitenack, Barney, Golden, Alberto Cabrera, Kurcz, and others.

 

He's not had a great draft to date and I'd agree with toonster that he's had a couple good drafts, a couple average drafts (with the possibility of downgrading one from each of those) and a terrible draft (06). Open up the checkbook a bit more and you might see 1-2 great drafts in upcoming years. Really, depending on who we're able to sign and how guys develop, the 11 draft has real potential to be a great draft.

 

As for the Cubs having a mediocre system, they were well on their way according to some to having a top 10 system soon, but then they graduated Castro and Cashner and traded Hak Ju Lee, Chris Archer and Brandon Guyer - all top 10 prospects in the system. Any system that loses five of its top 10 prospects all at once is going to plummet the following season.

 

Even with the graduation of Cashner and Castro, BA had the Cubs' system rated #7 before the Garza trade.

[toonsterwu]

Nitpicking, but wasn't it 8th? I don't recall. That said, I think most of us were surprised at that high ranking.

[UK1679666180]

Do as a I say, not as I do. A hitting coach's OBP has little to nothing to do with his teaching style.

 

Where are you coming up with that? I'm showing you statistical evidence to argue my point, you're giving me a mantra.

 

Organization wide, the Cubs are one of the least patient teams in MLB. The Red Sox are among the most patient. Part of this has to do with the kind of players the Red Sox target in the draft and internationally, and part of it has to do with player development, which, um, includes the kind of coaches that are hired to teach the kids how to play. Am I really saying something controversial here?

 

Are you a hitting coach? You're from the south side. Ever heard of Charlie Lau? Read up on him, then tell me your "Do as I say, not as I do" mantra again.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charley_Lau

I wouldn't want Lau teaching hitting, not based on approach but rather his view on mechanics where he teaches front side hitting based on momentum rather than hip rotation. Being an effective coach is based more on his ability to communicate rather than his own OBP.

 

I'm a Wilken fan, I don't mind them drafting noted aggressive players, I do wish they'd draft more hitters with plus raw power. I am encouraged with the 11' draft.

[sneakypower]

the 06-08 drafts are just utterly woeful; i can't find a guy in there who's a good bet to be a league average player, besides perhaps Guyer and Barney

[CubColtPacer]

the 06-08 drafts are just utterly woeful; i can't find a guy in there who's a good bet to be a league average player, besides possibly Guyer and Barney

 

I would call Cashner, Flaherty, and Russell solid bets to be league average for their positions. There's a couple others who still have reasonable chances to be that good.

[sneakypower]

the 06-08 drafts are just utterly woeful; i can't find a guy in there who's a good bet to be a league average player, besides possibly Guyer and Barney

 

I would call Cashner, Flaherty, and Russell solid bets to be league average for their positions. There's a couple others who still have reasonable chances to be that good.

i meant more "league average" as a 2-win guy

 

Cashner's bound for the pen, it seems like we're priming Flaherty for utility duty, with how he's been slotted (2B, 3B, LF, SS, RF, 1B), and Russell is replacement level

[SouthSideRyan]

the 06-08 drafts are just utterly woeful; i can't find a guy in there who's a good bet to be a league average player, besides possibly Guyer and Barney

 

I would call Cashner, Flaherty, and Russell solid bets to be league average for their positions. There's a couple others who still have reasonable chances to be that good.

i meant more "league average" as a 2-win guy

 

Cashner's bound for the pen, it seems like we're priming Flaherty for utility duty, with how he's been slotted (2B, 3B, LF, SS, RF, 1B), and Russell is replacement level

 

Cashner's bound for a career in the pen already?? And even if this were true (it isn't), relievers can be 2 win players. This will be the 3rd year out of 4 that we've had one on the Cubs.

 

Flaherty can't be league average because he's played different positions in the minors? What's separating him from Brandon Guyer's? Other than Guyer not being in our system? And the fact that Flaherty can play passable defense at something other than LF?

 

Russell as a reliever has been good.

Edited July 20, 2011 by SouthSideRyan

[jersey cubs fan]

Cashner's bound for the pen already?

 

The odds are very heavily in favor of that being the case. He's 24 years old and has one 100 inning season under his belt. He's never shown any inclination that he can handle a 30/200 type season.

[SouthSideRyan]

Cashner's bound for the pen already?

 

The odds are very heavily in favor of that being the case. He's 24 years old and has one 100 inning season under his belt. He's never shown any inclination that he can handle a 30/200 type season.

 

What inclination has he shown that he can't?

[sneakypower]

(re: Cashner)

No decision has been made on what type of a role he will have long term with us. I will leave all of that up to Dr. Gryzlo and Dr. Yocum who are treating him for his shoulder injury. I will tell you that I think that if he is out for a while it is probably unrealistic to think that he will just go right back into the rotation when he returns. When you miss a few months with an arm injury you cannot just go right back to pitching six innings or more when you return so I would think that he would be in the pen when he does come back this season."

 

Flaherty playing all over the diamond suggests that he's not in the team's plans to be an everyday player; the difference between him and Guyer is uncertainty in roles, so Guyer's a better bet to get the AB to compile average WAR seasons

Edited July 20, 2011 by sneakypower

[jersey cubs fan]

Cashner's bound for the pen already?

 

The odds are very heavily in favor of that being the case. He's 24 years old and has one 100 inning season under his belt. He's never shown any inclination that he can handle a 30/200 type season.

 

What inclination has he shown that he can't?

 

When it comes to being a starting pitcher at the major league level, the onus is on the player to prove he can do it, not the skeptic who is pointing out his flaws.

 

But to answer your question, he's got less than 250 innings pitched in 3+ seasons of professional baseball. He's already been hurt without much of a workload. When working as a starter he's basically been a 4-5 inning guy. The Cubs themselves have already strongly hinted that when he returns it will be out of the bullpen. He's already going to be 25 before this season ends and he'll be lucky to work back up to a 100 inning workload by next season. By the time 2013 comes around, he'll have very little track record as a reliable starter.