Levine: Hendry secure but firesale could begin

[Sammy Sofa]

The issue with Soriano is that there is more downside risk than upside. The most likely option is that he is worth 10-12 million over the next year or two. But all the other probable options are bad. He could easily get hurt and provide less value than that. His peripherals suggest a possible decline (his home run/FB rate is one of the highest of his career, his BB's are down, his K's are up). If he could be traded with eating 27 million, I think I would take that deal. I wouldn't take much more than that, but I'd rather trust a different 10 million dollar OF right now than trusting Soriano to keep up his production.

 

So why not just wait and cut him when he sucks?

 

Because first, you have to waste a year finding out he's terrible. Either he's hurt and you have a bench player all year or he's just terrible in your lineup. Between that and the dead money after cutting him you could very well lose more than 27 million.

 

Eh, so be it. I'd rather do that than dump him now for the sake of mediocre LF production that is slightly more cost-effective.

[jersey cubs fan]

The issue with Soriano is that there is more downside risk than upside. The most likely option is that he is worth 10-12 million over the next year or two. But all the other probable options are bad. He could easily get hurt and provide less value than that. His peripherals suggest a possible decline (his home run/FB rate is one of the highest of his career, his BB's are down, his K's are up). If he could be traded with eating 27 million, I think I would take that deal. I wouldn't take much more than that, but I'd rather trust a different 10 million dollar OF right now than trusting Soriano to keep up his production.

 

So why not just wait and cut him when he sucks?

 

Because first, you have to waste a year finding out he's terrible. Either he's hurt and you have a bench player all year or he's just terrible in your lineup. Between that and the dead money after cutting him you could very well lose more than 27 million.

 

But you said yourself the most likely scenario is that he's going to be worth around $10m next year. Sure, he could get hurt (and probably will at some point). The guy you acquire could get hurt too. The likely scenario is he's worth $10m next year. If you only have to pay a small fraction and/or you can get something more valuable than pitching project, sure, go right ahead. But there's no point in paying half his money and getting filler in return right now. They have several other actual need positions to fill at the same time. Get production out of RF, 1B and 2B, improve your pitching, and let Colvin be Soriano's insurance for next year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Depends on the fraction. Dumping half of Soriano's contract is probably worth it, and I like Soriano.

 

But how much savings are really that realistic? It's difficult to see a scenario where moving Soriano isn't essentially just paying him to play somewhere else. Seems like it would be a PR move for the meatballs and the Kaplans of the world more than anything.

 

Trust me, I'd love to watch Soriano have the game-winning hit to win a title just so Kaplan would hopefully kill himself, but I don't think it's impossible to find a taker for him at 3/27. I know he's a glaring exception, but Vernon Wells had his entire horrific contract absorbed.

 

If we could find a sucker as the Blue Jays always seem to, Id be thrilled. Even if Soriano can sustain the numbers his putting up now, I cant imagine anyone taking him without us having to eat at least half of his salary, which I wouldnt be opposed to if we could get some quality prospects out of the deal. However, I dont know what team is going to pay that kind of money AND give up good prospects. If we do give away Soriano, even if we do sign Fielder or Pujols, I dont know how good of a team wed have.

[wvcbxl]

I say American because apparently theres some Soccer or Rugby team somehwhere in Great Britain with something like a 130 year drought.

 

Soccer - Preston North End last won a championship in 1890.

[Exile on Waveland]

I say American because apparently theres some Soccer or Rugby team somehwhere in Great Britain with something like a 130 year drought.

 

Soccer - Preston North End last won a championship in 1890.

 

Going way out on a limb here . . . the Cubs will break their streak of futility before Preston North End.

[wvcbxl]

I say American because apparently theres some Soccer or Rugby team somehwhere in Great Britain with something like a 130 year drought.

 

Soccer - Preston North End last won a championship in 1890.

 

Going way out on a limb here . . . the Cubs will break their streak of futility before Preston North End.

 

I agree

[Brett]

Even if we do sign a free agent for say 8-10 mil to put up decent numbers, considering wed still be paying Sori 9 mil, were still paying 17-19 mil for left field.

 

So you're getting the same output for the same amount next year, and you're more and more likely to have better output for the the same money the following years.

 

And it's realistic to think that the Cubs *could* find someone at $8 to $10 million whose total value - offensively and defensively - in LF exceeds Soriano's.

[Post Count Padder]

@BruceMiles2112 Bruce Miles

#Cubs Hendry says no fire sale

[Rob]

@BruceMiles2112 Bruce Miles

#Cubs Hendry says no fire sale

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMSzdgz2ZLs

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, people honestly expect Jim Hendry to confirm or announce a fire sale? Really?

[SouthSideRyan]

I do get the suspicion we're holding on to Pena, with the thought that he's our fallback if Pujols or Fielder don't materialize.

[Sammy Sofa]

I do get the suspicion we're holding on to Pena, with the thought that he's our fallback if Pujols or Fielder don't materialize.

 

Yeah, I'll (sadly) be very surprised if he's traded. As bad as this team is they still don't seem to be at the point that they'll trade away the best player they have. Hopefully that'll change as they get closer to the decade, but I just don't see them leaving a gaping hole at 1B for the rest of the season even if it's the smart thing to do. They'll still cling to the idea that a hot player will bring them money in the short run instead of looking at the bigger picture.

[Backtobanks]

I think Hendry really wants to wait for everyone to get off the DL to see how the team performs before making any deals. Also, I agree with N&G that he's not going to announce a fire sale. When the time comes he will listen to offers, but not make a public spectacle of it. Edited June 29, 2011 by Backtobanks

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Hendry really wants to wait for everyone to get off the DL to see how the team performs before making any deals.

 

Yeah, he's got to hope Ricketts is stupid enough to think the injuries were the problem and that the team can play over .500 the rest of the way, so he can keep his job the same way Quade got his job.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I think Hendry really wants to wait for everyone to get off the DL to see how the team performs before making any deals.

Who is "everyone"? Marlon Byrd and Kerry Wood? If Hendry is waiting for them to turn the team around, he is even dumber than I thought.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Hendry really wants to wait for everyone to get off the DL to see how the team performs before making any deals.

Who is "everyone"? Marlon Byrd and Kerry Wood? If Hendry is waiting for them to turn the team around, he is even dumber than I thought.

 

That's the beauty of it, there's always somebody to wait on.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think Hendry really wants to wait for everyone to get off the DL to see how the team performs before making any deals.

Who is "everyone"? Marlon Byrd and Kerry Wood? If Hendry is waiting for them to turn the team around, he is even dumber than I thought.

 

Hendry and co. are definitely trying to sell the idea of Barney being a good player so they're no doubt counting him, too.

[Guest]

Bruce Miles[/url]"]"I read some things that people assume," Jim said. "They use the word 'fire sale.' That's not going to happen. We're not interested in trading people at all that will be valuable to us moving forward. People like to float names of your better players, which makes no sense to trade. If we make moves, it will be designed to make us better for the future, and we still want see how we play the next month or so. Everybody thinks there's this big, automatic, 'You have to be a buyer or a seller or it's fire-sale time.' Well, we've got a lot of young people out there pitching and playing or some people who will be very productive for us a year from now that when you get ready to put together a team in the off-season, you certainly don't want to start out without them anyhow...We're certainly going to hold on to the people, no matter what, we feel will be major contributors down the road."

[Little Slide Rooter]

Bruce Miles[/url]"]"I read some things that people assume," Jim said. "They use the word 'fire sale.' That's not going to happen. We're not interested in trading people at all that will be valuable to us moving forward. People like to float names of your better players, which makes no sense to trade. If we make moves, it will be designed to make us better for the future, and we still want see how we play the next month or so. Everybody thinks there's this big, automatic, 'You have to be a buyer or a seller or it's fire-sale time.' Well, we've got a lot of young people out there pitching and playing or some people who will be very productive for us a year from now that when you get ready to put together a team in the off-season, you certainly don't want to start out without them anyhow...We're certainly going to hold on to the people, no matter what, we feel will be major contributors down the road."

 

Sounds about right. Once August 1st rolls around, Pena and Fukudome, and probably Reed Johnson will more than likely be on other teams. Theres really no rush to get rid of anyone else, unless Aramis decides to waive his NTC or Wood agrees to be traded to a contender.

[davearm2]

"Major contributors" is a sufficiently ambiguous phrase.

[Illini Iceman]

I would rather they keep Pena than trade him for some mediocre prospects. What team is going to give up anything of real value for a 2 month rental of him?

[questionmarkgrace]

I would rather they keep Pena than trade him for some mediocre prospects. What team is going to give up anything of real value for a 2 month rental of him?

 

well he is a type b free agent if the season ended now so who ever takes him is guaranteed a second round pick since he will most likely sign a multi year contract in the offseason.

[Guest]

I would rather they keep Pena than trade him for some mediocre prospects. What team is going to give up anything of real value for a 2 month rental of him?

 

A team that wants to go to the playoffs. Why would we keep Pena, even if we only got mediocre prospects? We have bigger fish to fry at 1B for next year, and Pena hasn't been consistent enough to worry about losing the chance that he'd consider us if we needed a fallback 1B option.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I would rather they keep Pena than trade him for some mediocre prospects. What team is going to give up anything of real value for a 2 month rental of him?

 

The way I see it, hes like a gift certificate to K Mart. Granted, you probably wont get anything you really want, but you may as well cash it in anyway or else its a waste.

 

Pretty much any contender in the AL Central and West where it probably wont take more than 85 games to take either can use all the help they can get.

[PrimeTime]

Typical Hendry again going on like there's no problem,stress, urgency or anything

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0630-cubs-giants-chicago--20110629,0,7314531.story