Levine: Hendry secure but firesale could begin

[NOLA]

More on Hahn:

 

Amazin' Avenue[/url]"]

• Hahn grew up a Cubs fan and graduated from New Trier High School in Winnetka, Illinois.
   
  As a 12-year-old he would send letters to Cubs GM Dallas Green with trade proposals. Green would occasionally write back.
   
  He holds degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard Law School, and Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
   
  At Kellogg he studied things like "finance, statistical analysis, regression analysis, [and] accounting methods", which he thought would be useful tools to have when he eventually joined a big league front office.
   
  While still at Kellogg, Hahn took a position with the sports agency Steinberg, Moorad & Dunn, the firm of superagent Jeff Moorad (who now owns parts of the Padres and Diamondbacks). Hahn's time there would provide him valuable experience he would later use while negotiating player contracts from the other side of the table.
   
  He left Moorad's agency in 2000 and was hired shortly thereafter as an assistant to newly-appointed White Sox GM Kenny Williams (who was previously the team's farm director).
   
  He was a candidate for the Cardinals GM job after the 2007 season but withdrew his name before John Mozeliak got the job.
   
  He declined to meet with the Pirates regarding their GM vacancy in September 2007. That job went to Neal Huntington.
   
  Hahn was not given permission to interview with the Mariners following the 2008 season for the GM position that eventually went to Jack Z.
   
  He has negotiated a half-billion dollars worth of contracts for the White Sox, including those of Paul Konerko and Mark Buehrle.
  In discussing Gavin Floyd's slow start in 2009 (and most years), Hahn cited Floyd's FIP and how it was lower than his ERA as a rationale for not worrying needlessly (ed. note: this was relayed to me anecdotally by The Cheat at South Side Sox).

 

He was also BA's #1 GM candidate last March.

 

Count me as in.

[Post Count Padder]

Chicago Now blogger says "unnamed sources" think Hendry is gone. A pretty bad example of "journalism", but let's hope it's true.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/cubs-insider/2011/06/sources-say-expect-change-at-gm-for-cubs.html

 

Tom Ricketts will indeed be willing to eat some of the money necessary to make Alfonso Soriano disappear.

 

 

Read more: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/cubs-insider/2011/06/sources-say-expect-change-at-gm-for-cubs.html#ixzz1QZpTL2Sn

 

Sure, lets pay a guy to hit in the .260s, OPS in the .800s and hit 20-25 HRs to play in Baltimore while we platoon Tony Campana and Lou Montanez.

There's always the chance we get a Brett Jackson callup. And, honestly, we're not going anywhere this season. Would be better to shed payroll and nab a few prospects. Soriano can still hit a bit, but that would give us a lot of relief in the next few years. And it would be better to trade him while he still has some value.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Chicago Now blogger says "unnamed sources" think Hendry is gone. A pretty bad example of "journalism", but let's hope it's true.

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/cubs-insider/2011/06/sources-say-expect-change-at-gm-for-cubs.html

 

Tom Ricketts will indeed be willing to eat some of the money necessary to make Alfonso Soriano disappear.

 

 

Read more: http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/cubs-insider/2011/06/sources-say-expect-change-at-gm-for-cubs.html#ixzz1QZpTL2Sn

 

Sure, lets pay a guy to hit in the .260s, OPS in the .800s and hit 20-25 HRs to play in Baltimore while we platoon Tony Campana and Lou Montanez.

There's always the chance we get a Brett Jackson callup. And, honestly, we're not going anywhere this season. Would be better to shed payroll and nab a few prospects. Soriano can still hit a bit, but that would give us a lot of relief in the next few years. And it would be better to trade him while he still has some value.

 

Again, if we could get good prospects and/or decent salary relief, but if your going to get a handful of fringers and a fraction of his salary, Id rather he just stay where he is. If we want to compete next year, hes a great piece to have. Id prefer juice him for his good years as long as were competing and let him go in the end if he falls off a cliff.

Edited June 28, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[SouthSideRyan]

Depends on the fraction. Dumping half of Soriano's contract is probably worth it, and I like Soriano.

[Sammy Sofa]

More on Hahn:

 

Amazin' Avenue[/url]"]

• Hahn grew up a Cubs fan and graduated from New Trier High School in Winnetka, Illinois.
   
  As a 12-year-old he would send letters to Cubs GM Dallas Green with trade proposals. Green would occasionally write back.
   
  He holds degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard Law School, and Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
   
  At Kellogg he studied things like "finance, statistical analysis, regression analysis, [and] accounting methods", which he thought would be useful tools to have when he eventually joined a big league front office.
   
  While still at Kellogg, Hahn took a position with the sports agency Steinberg, Moorad & Dunn, the firm of superagent Jeff Moorad (who now owns parts of the Padres and Diamondbacks). Hahn's time there would provide him valuable experience he would later use while negotiating player contracts from the other side of the table.
   
  He left Moorad's agency in 2000 and was hired shortly thereafter as an assistant to newly-appointed White Sox GM Kenny Williams (who was previously the team's farm director).
   
  He was a candidate for the Cardinals GM job after the 2007 season but withdrew his name before John Mozeliak got the job.
   
  He declined to meet with the Pirates regarding their GM vacancy in September 2007. That job went to Neal Huntington.
   
  Hahn was not given permission to interview with the Mariners following the 2008 season for the GM position that eventually went to Jack Z.
   
  He has negotiated a half-billion dollars worth of contracts for the White Sox, including those of Paul Konerko and Mark Buehrle.
  In discussing Gavin Floyd's slow start in 2009 (and most years), Hahn cited Floyd's FIP and how it was lower than his ERA as a rationale for not worrying needlessly (ed. note: this was relayed to me anecdotally by The Cheat at South Side Sox).

 

He was also BA's #1 GM candidate last March.

 

Count me as in.

 

Yeah, Hahn's been pretty well regarded around baseball for a while now. I'd be a big fan of getting him.

[Sammy Sofa]

Depends on the fraction. Dumping half of Soriano's contract is probably worth it, and I like Soriano.

 

But how much savings are really that realistic? It's difficult to see a scenario where moving Soriano isn't essentially just paying him to play somewhere else. Seems like it would be a PR move for the meatballs and the Kaplans of the world more than anything.

[Little Slide Rooter]

More on Hahn:

 

Amazin' Avenue[/url]"]

• Hahn grew up a Cubs fan and graduated from New Trier High School in Winnetka, Illinois.
   
  As a 12-year-old he would send letters to Cubs GM Dallas Green with trade proposals. Green would occasionally write back.
   
  He holds degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard Law School, and Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
   
  At Kellogg he studied things like "finance, statistical analysis, regression analysis, [and] accounting methods", which he thought would be useful tools to have when he eventually joined a big league front office.
   
  While still at Kellogg, Hahn took a position with the sports agency Steinberg, Moorad & Dunn, the firm of superagent Jeff Moorad (who now owns parts of the Padres and Diamondbacks). Hahn's time there would provide him valuable experience he would later use while negotiating player contracts from the other side of the table.
   
  He left Moorad's agency in 2000 and was hired shortly thereafter as an assistant to newly-appointed White Sox GM Kenny Williams (who was previously the team's farm director).
   
  He was a candidate for the Cardinals GM job after the 2007 season but withdrew his name before John Mozeliak got the job.
   
  He declined to meet with the Pirates regarding their GM vacancy in September 2007. That job went to Neal Huntington.
   
  Hahn was not given permission to interview with the Mariners following the 2008 season for the GM position that eventually went to Jack Z.
   
  He has negotiated a half-billion dollars worth of contracts for the White Sox, including those of Paul Konerko and Mark Buehrle.
  In discussing Gavin Floyd's slow start in 2009 (and most years), Hahn cited Floyd's FIP and how it was lower than his ERA as a rationale for not worrying needlessly (ed. note: this was relayed to me anecdotally by The Cheat at South Side Sox).

 

He was also BA's #1 GM candidate last March.

 

Count me as in.

 

Yeah, Hahn's been pretty well regarded around baseball for a while now. I'd be a big fan of getting him.

 

I definitely like the fact that he grew up a Cubs fan, assuming he hasnt been corrupted by 11 years in the White Sox organization. What Cubs fan wouldnt want to be the guy to end the biggest drought in American sports history. I say American because apparently theres some Soccer or Rugby team somehwhere in Great Britain with something like a 130 year drought.

[jersey cubs fan]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

[Sammy Sofa]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

 

Exactly. People irrationally hate Soriano because of how much money he makes, so much so to the point that they can't (or refuse to) see that dealing him just to deal him creates yet another hole in the lineup that they would have to fill. Just cut him when he stops being useful.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

 

Thats what Im saying. As long as he can keep doing what hes done the past 2 years, even if he never gets back to his '07-'08 numbers, which I wouldnt expect him to, Id rather he do it for us, and if he turns to crap when hes 37-38, cut him a check and waive good bye. Even if we do sign Pujols or Fielder, were going to need more bats in the lineup, and we really dont have anyone in the minors capable of Sorianos numbers, at least immediately. Even if we do sign a free agent for say 8-10 mil to put up decent numbers, considering wed still be paying Sori 9 mil, were still paying 17-19 mil for left field.

[jersey cubs fan]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

 

Exactly. People irrationally hate Soriano because of how much money he makes, so much so to the point that they can't (or refuse to) see that dealing him just to deal him creates yet another hole in the lineup that they would have to fill. Just cut him when he stops being useful.

 

I think a good deal of the hatred of Soriano is completely rational. It's the need to have him gone at all costs that is irrational.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

 

Exactly. People irrationally hate Soriano because of how much money he makes, so much so to the point that they can't (or refuse to) see that dealing him just to deal him creates yet another hole in the lineup that they would have to fill. Just cut him when he stops being useful.

 

I think a good deal of the hatred of Soriano is completely rational. It's the need to have him gone at all costs that is irrational.

 

A lot of Cubs fans seem to believe that theres no middle ground between superstar and bust.

[SouthSideRyan]

Depends on the fraction. Dumping half of Soriano's contract is probably worth it, and I like Soriano.

 

But how much savings are really that realistic? It's difficult to see a scenario where moving Soriano isn't essentially just paying him to play somewhere else. Seems like it would be a PR move for the meatballs and the Kaplans of the world more than anything.

 

Trust me, I'd love to watch Soriano have the game-winning hit to win a title just so Kaplan would hopefully kill himself, but I don't think it's impossible to find a taker for him at 3/27. I know he's a glaring exception, but Vernon Wells had his entire horrific contract absorbed.

[Sammy Sofa]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

 

Exactly. People irrationally hate Soriano because of how much money he makes, so much so to the point that they can't (or refuse to) see that dealing him just to deal him creates yet another hole in the lineup that they would have to fill. Just cut him when he stops being useful.

 

I think a good deal of the hatred of Soriano is completely rational. It's the need to have him gone at all costs that is irrational.

 

A lot of Cubs fans seem to believe that theres no middle ground between superstar and bust.

 

Yup. There's plenty of reasons to dislike Soriano as a player or not be a fan of him...and then there's the people who boo him every single time he strikes out.

[Sammy Sofa]

Soriano is owed 3/54, right? Instead of paying half his salary to play elsewhere for the next three years, I'd rather cut him in a couple years if it gets to the point where he sucks. This team doesn't have any corner bats anywhere close to ready to contribute. They are already likely looking to replace Kosuke and potentially first base and second base. He may not be worth any more than $8-10m this year and the next, but if you do pay him to go away, you are just going to have to go out and pay again to replace him. You need to get quality in return and/or pay very little of his salary.

 

Exactly. People irrationally hate Soriano because of how much money he makes, so much so to the point that they can't (or refuse to) see that dealing him just to deal him creates yet another hole in the lineup that they would have to fill. Just cut him when he stops being useful.

 

I think a good deal of the hatred of Soriano is completely rational. It's the need to have him gone at all costs that is irrational.

 

Yes, that's irrationally hating someone, gooney.

[SouthSideRyan]

Even if we do sign a free agent for say 8-10 mil to put up decent numbers, considering wed still be paying Sori 9 mil, were still paying 17-19 mil for left field.

 

So you're getting the same output for the same amount next year, and you're more and more likely to have better output for the the same money the following years.

[Guest]

If you could pay Soriano 3/18 to go away, and get something in return like a risky pitching project or something, I'd be tempted to see what you could do with that additional flexibility.

[Sammy Sofa]

Depends on the fraction. Dumping half of Soriano's contract is probably worth it, and I like Soriano.

 

But how much savings are really that realistic? It's difficult to see a scenario where moving Soriano isn't essentially just paying him to play somewhere else. Seems like it would be a PR move for the meatballs and the Kaplans of the world more than anything.

 

Trust me, I'd love to watch Soriano have the game-winning hit to win a title just so Kaplan would hopefully kill himself, but I don't think it's impossible to find a taker for him at 3/27. I know he's a glaring exception, but Vernon Wells had his entire horrific contract absorbed.

 

I'm not saying don't do it if the opportunity is there...I just don't think it's very likely and am more concerned that a "drive" on the part of the organization to move him ASAP is just an appeasement PR move more than anything that they'll take a bath on. It's not like they NEED to move Soriano. There's a ton of money coming off of the books after this year and the next and he's not blocking anyone in their system and there are no obviously better FA OF candidates out there available soon (or would be blocked by him).

[jersey cubs fan]

Even if we do sign a free agent for say 8-10 mil to put up decent numbers, considering wed still be paying Sori 9 mil, were still paying 17-19 mil for left field.

 

So you're getting the same output for the same amount next year, and you're more and more likely to have better output for the the same money the following years.

 

That's assuming the 8-10m free agent you acquire is worth it and not just as close to a decline.

Edited June 28, 2011 by jersey cubs fan

[CubColtPacer]

The issue with Soriano is that there is more downside risk than upside. The most likely option is that he is worth 10-12 million over the next year or two. But all the other probable options are bad. He could easily get hurt and provide less value than that. His peripherals suggest a possible decline (his home run/FB rate is one of the highest of his career, his BB's are down, his K's are up). If he could be traded with eating 27 million, I think I would take that deal. I wouldn't take much more than that, but I'd rather trust a different 10 million dollar OF right now than trusting Soriano to keep up his production.

[Cubswin11]

Soriano has a .831 OPS in 4 1/2 years and has hit 20 or more HR every year and 30 HR once in his time with the Cubs. He should come close to 30 HR this year and have a OPS over .800 again. While his contract is an albatross, those aren't horrible numbers and it's not easy to replace an .800+ OPS and 20+ HR a year. Last year there were only 16 OF in all of baseball with a OPS higher than .831 Edited June 28, 2011 by Cubswin11

[Sammy Sofa]

The issue with Soriano is that there is more downside risk than upside. The most likely option is that he is worth 10-12 million over the next year or two. But all the other probable options are bad. He could easily get hurt and provide less value than that. His peripherals suggest a possible decline (his home run/FB rate is one of the highest of his career, his BB's are down, his K's are up). If he could be traded with eating 27 million, I think I would take that deal. I wouldn't take much more than that, but I'd rather trust a different 10 million dollar OF right now than trusting Soriano to keep up his production.

 

So why not just wait and cut him when he sucks?

[SouthSideRyan]

The issue with Soriano is that there is more downside risk than upside. The most likely option is that he is worth 10-12 million over the next year or two. But all the other probable options are bad. He could easily get hurt and provide less value than that. His peripherals suggest a possible decline (his home run/FB rate is one of the highest of his career, his BB's are down, his K's are up). If he could be traded with eating 27 million, I think I would take that deal. I wouldn't take much more than that, but I'd rather trust a different 10 million dollar OF right now than trusting Soriano to keep up his production.

 

So why not just wait and cut him when he sucks?

 

Because then you're paying twice as much for no output.

[Guest]

Because it's a lot easier to approximate Soriano's production for far less than 10-12 million than it is to approximate, say, Dempster or Zambrano, or Ramirez's production.

[CubColtPacer]

The issue with Soriano is that there is more downside risk than upside. The most likely option is that he is worth 10-12 million over the next year or two. But all the other probable options are bad. He could easily get hurt and provide less value than that. His peripherals suggest a possible decline (his home run/FB rate is one of the highest of his career, his BB's are down, his K's are up). If he could be traded with eating 27 million, I think I would take that deal. I wouldn't take much more than that, but I'd rather trust a different 10 million dollar OF right now than trusting Soriano to keep up his production.

 

So why not just wait and cut him when he sucks?

 

Because first, you have to waste a year finding out he's terrible. Either he's hurt and you have a bench player all year or he's just terrible in your lineup. Between that and the dead money after cutting him you could very well lose more than 27 million.