Bears game 14: Monday Dec 20, at MIN (TCF)

[Soul]

I'd actually be quite surprised if the game is still played in the Metrodome. I'm not an expert on architecture or construction, but it just seems like a lot of crap to clean up and fix in a week's time.

 

Like you, I'm not expert on the subject, but I'm guessing the cleanup is much less of a concern than the fixing of the holes in the roof. If those holes are fixed, I think they'd play.

 

I thought I heard yesterday that fixing the holes really isn't that big a deal. This report said they called in the original manufacturer to look it over and come up with the best way to move forward.

 

Not sure how long all of this will take though.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm pretty sure Brad Biggs said the Jets game wasn't going to be changed

 

The current Sunday night game, Cincy/San Diego is a complete dog that has to be switched out. The NFL announces 12 days in advance and will take it's time on this one since it's nearing the end of the season (they can announce week 17 6 days in advance). Chicago/NY is huge. Two big city teams with major followings both in need of wins for playoff hopes. They might want to hold back the Bears for a weeky 17 sunday night game. NYG/GB is currently slated as a 4:15 game, but that could be a night game. I think Fox has the doubleheader. But I think it's still a possibility.

 

Minnesota-Philly has been flexed to the 8:20 game that week. Apparently the Colts-Raiders game was strongly considered but they ultimately went away from it after the Raiders lost yesterday.

 

And now the new 4:00 games are SD/CIN and SEA/TB.

[UMFan83]

Yeah 2 wins and we win the division.

 

Win 1 and it depends on which game we win.

 

If we win the Minnesota game, any GB loss gives us the division

If our only win is the Jets game, GB must lose to Patriots and Giants to win division. According to the ESPN playoff scenario, any tie where we don't beat Minnesota or GB, GB wins the tiebreaker.

If our only win is the Packers game, we win the division with no other help.

 

As far as wild card, we have the following teams/entities fighting for 1 spot.

 

1. CHI/GB loser (9-4/8-5)

2. PHI/NYG loser (9-4/8-4)

3. TB (8-5)

 

I am assuming NO pretty much has a playoff spot locked up but techincally they could lose out and be in big trouble.

 

I'll go over every tiebreaking scenario just to make you tear your hair out.

 

CHI and TB tie: TAMPA BAY (wins all tiebreakers)

CHI and NYG tie: NEW YORK GIANTS

CHI and Phi tie: CHICAGO

CHI and TB and NYG tie: NYG (83% of scenarios), TB (17% of scenarios), CHI (0%)

CHI and TB and PHI tie: TB (100% of scenarios)

 

The only tiebreaker that Chicago wins is straight up over Philly. All other WC tiebreaking scenarios are losers for Chicago (*there is a small chance Chicago can win the Vikings game and still not win the division, and because of the small chance I didn't actually see if it changed anything to have Chicago win over Minnesota instead of the Jets...it might have in the 3 team scenarios but if Chicago beats minnesota and GB wins out, whatever)

 

I don't care about the ties for GB or whoever else.

Edited December 13, 2010 by UMFan83

[bukie]

If our only win is the Jets game, can't win the division. According to the ESPN playoff scenario, any tie where we don't beat Minnesota or GB, GB wins the tiebreaker.

If GB loses to NE and the Giants, the Bears still win the division with just the Jets game.

[UMFan83]

If our only win is the Jets game, can't win the division. According to the ESPN playoff scenario, any tie where we don't beat Minnesota or GB, GB wins the tiebreaker.

If GB loses to NE and the Giants, the Bears still win the division with just the Jets game.

 

I just corrected that. I was thinking in terms of tiebreakers at the time, when I started talking about something else.

[bukie]

Also, if the GIants lose to Minnesota tonight, the chances of a 10-6 team missing the playoffs becomes almost zero.

[UMFan83]

Also, if the GIants lose to Minnesota tonight, the chances of a 10-6 team missing the playoffs becomes almost zero.

 

I don't know what you mean by that...I just pretty easily came up with a scenario where 2 10-6 teams miss the playoffs.

 

Week 15:

DET over TB

NYG over PHI

MIN over CHI

GB over NE

ATL over SEA

NO over BAL

 

Week 16:

TB over SEA

NYG over GB

PHI over MIN

CHI over NYJ

ATL over NO

 

Week 17:

TB over NO

WAS over NYG

PHI over DAL

GB over CHI

ATL over CAR

 

This would put the Giants, Bears and Bucaneers all at 10-6 with only the giants getting in. If I switch the result of the week 15 Eagles/Giants game, I get the 10-6 Bucs over the 10-6 Bears. Some of the results are not completely likely but I wouldn't say its close to 0 percent chance.

[bukie]

The chances of all 3 games of NE-GB, NYG-PHI and TB-NO going the way they need to for a 10-6 team to miss the playoffs is under 10%. Couple that with all the other, even likely, occurrences in other games (MIN over CHI, NYG over GB, TB over SEA, GB over CHI), and the number gets really low.

[Flames24Rulz]

Also, if the GIants lose to Minnesota tonight, the chances of a 10-6 team missing the playoffs becomes almost zero.

 

I think the Bucs are all but a lock to finish at 10-6 and they would miss the playoffs if the Packers finish 10-6.

[JonJayCutler]

Just beat the damn Vikings and the other crap probably doesn't matter. I don't see anyway the Packers win in Foxboro with Matt Flynn, and it's doubtful they win with a concussed Rodgers.

 

Then again, I didn't see anyway the Lions could beat the Packers yesterday. Gotta love the NFL.

[UMFan83]

The chances of all 3 games of NE-GB, NYG-PHI and TB-NO going the way they need to for a 10-6 team to miss the playoffs is under 10%. Couple that with all the other, even likely, occurrences in other games (MIN over CHI, NYG over GB, TB over SEA, GB over CHI), and the number gets really low.

 

There is 1 spot for 3 teams (technically 3 spots for 5) basically.

 

Here are the games where 1 of those 5 teams interact with the other

TB: None

NYG: Phi, @ GB

Phi: @NYG

GB: NYG, CHI

Chi: @ GB

 

The Eagles and Bears have 4 losses, the Giants (if losing tonight), Packers and Bucs 5. None of the 3 teams fighting for the last wild card spot need to win out to get to 10 wins, so they all have a cushion of losing 1 or 2 games and still getting to 10 wins.

 

I'm probably not explaining it right, but I feel like you must have calculated something incorrectly. I will leave open the possibility that I am just not comprehending you correctly though. I have respected your probability work enough in the past to know that I could be wrong here, but it doesn't seem like it.

[bukie]

Two things I misread:

- Tampa doesn't have to beat the Saints to go 10-6 (for some reason I thought they were 8-6, not 8-5).

- Assuming the Saints grab a WC spot, only one of Tampa-GB/Chi loser-PHI/NYG loser makes it, not two (I forgot to count the Saints..or the NFC west).

 

So it's still a decent possibility. Still helpful for all non-Giant fans for the Giants to lose.

[hawkeyecub]

They can't hold their 50th anniversary over the league's head as a reason this must be in Minnesota.

 

They should have thought about that when they decided to let their stadium become a decrepit dump.

 

If you just wanted to say the Metrodome sucks you should have just said that and left out the first sentence. No one would disagree. It doesn't even make sense the way you put them together. And in case you hadn't noticed, they've kind of been trying to get a stadium for a long time.

 

The game should be in Minnesota because a home game was scheduled, there's a viable alternative in town and ticket holders should be able to see the last two games of the year that they paid for. The 50th anniversary stuff is what seals the deal for wanting it at TCF instead of Detroit.

[UMFan83]

They can't hold their 50th anniversary over the league's head as a reason this must be in Minnesota.

 

They should have thought about that when they decided to let their stadium become a decrepit dump.

 

If you just wanted to say the Metrodome sucks you should have just said that and left out the first sentence. No one would disagree. It doesn't even make sense the way you put them together. And in case you hadn't noticed, they've kind of been trying to get a stadium for a long time.

 

The game should be in Minnesota because a home game was scheduled, there's a viable alternative in town and ticket holders should be able to see the last two games of the year that they paid for. The 50th anniversary stuff is what seals the deal for wanting it at TCF instead of Detroit.

 

Why not move it to Milwaukee? My teams certainly seem to do well when their games get randomly relocated there.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It should be at TCF. This whole Ford Stadium deal sucks. I realize TCF wouldn't be ready, but still.

 

And would there really be any difference between TCF and the RollerDome? Both teams will need to adjust to it. As long as we don't get a blizzard where AP and Co run all over us, it really shouldn't be a deciding factor or something to fear. And the last time MN got 12"+ of snow, two weeks later is was above freezing and everything was melting. December is weird up there, but not as cold ans January.

 

eta: weather.com says 20-15 degrees for next Monday. meh.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USMN0503

[JonJayCutler]

They can't hold their 50th anniversary over the league's head as a reason this must be in Minnesota.

 

They should have thought about that when they decided to let their stadium become a decrepit dump.

 

If you just wanted to say the Metrodome sucks you should have just said that and left out the first sentence. No one would disagree. It doesn't even make sense the way you put them together. And in case you hadn't noticed, they've kind of been trying to get a stadium for a long time.

 

The game should be in Minnesota because a home game was scheduled, there's a viable alternative in town and ticket holders should be able to see the last two games of the year that they paid for. The 50th anniversary stuff is what seals the deal for wanting it at TCF instead of Detroit.

 

Why not move it to Milwaukee? My teams certainly seem to do well when their games get randomly relocated there.

 

Do you really want a stadium full of Packers fans rooting for the Bears to lose?

[UMFan83]

They can't hold their 50th anniversary over the league's head as a reason this must be in Minnesota.

 

They should have thought about that when they decided to let their stadium become a decrepit dump.

 

If you just wanted to say the Metrodome sucks you should have just said that and left out the first sentence. No one would disagree. It doesn't even make sense the way you put them together. And in case you hadn't noticed, they've kind of been trying to get a stadium for a long time.

 

The game should be in Minnesota because a home game was scheduled, there's a viable alternative in town and ticket holders should be able to see the last two games of the year that they paid for. The 50th anniversary stuff is what seals the deal for wanting it at TCF instead of Detroit.

 

Why not move it to Milwaukee? My teams certainly seem to do well when their games get randomly relocated there.

 

Do you really want a stadium full of Packers fans rooting for the Bears to lose?

 

Well I was originally joking, but I'm guessing if they moved the game to Milwaukee and gave out free tickets, there would be a ton of Bears fans willing to drive up and get those tickets. I would probably be like 40% Bears fans, 35% Packers fans, 25% Vikings fans. It would actually be a really nice nearly even mix of 3 fan bases that loathe each other lol.

[mul21]

Not that it's really a possibility, but exactly where in the hell in Milwaukee would they play?

[jersey cubs fan]

It should be at TCF. This whole Ford Stadium deal sucks. I realize TCF wouldn't be ready, but still.

 

And would there really be any difference between TCF and the RollerDome? Both teams will need to adjust to it. As long as we don't get a blizzard where AP and Co run all over us, it really shouldn't be a deciding factor or something to fear. And the last time MN got 12"+ of snow, two weeks later is was above freezing and everything was melting. December is weird up there, but not as cold ans January.

 

eta: weather.com says 20-15 degrees for next Monday. meh.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USMN0503

 

Blame your own city/team for the Ford Field issue.

 

And yes there would be a huge difference between TCF and the dome. The Vikings are likely to know before anybody else if the dome will be playable, and they could easily gain an unfair advantage by preparing for a dome game while the Bears figure out if it's an outdoor game or dome. Also, being a night game it's even more of an issue.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It should be at TCF. This whole Ford Stadium deal sucks. I realize TCF wouldn't be ready, but still.

 

And would there really be any difference between TCF and the RollerDome? Both teams will need to adjust to it. As long as we don't get a blizzard where AP and Co run all over us, it really shouldn't be a deciding factor or something to fear. And the last time MN got 12"+ of snow, two weeks later is was above freezing and everything was melting. December is weird up there, but not as cold ans January.

 

eta: weather.com says 20-15 degrees for next Monday. meh.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USMN0503

 

Blame your own city/team for the Ford Field issue.

 

And yes there would be a huge difference between TCF and the dome. The Vikings are likely to know before anybody else if the dome will be playable, and they could easily gain an unfair advantage by preparing for a dome game while the Bears figure out if it's an outdoor game or dome. Also, being a night game it's even more of an issue.

 

I should blame the Bears? what?

 

timing of the information release aside, not an issue.

[jersey cubs fan]

I should blame the Bears? what?

 

timing of the information release aside, not an issue.

 

I was thinking you were a Minny person. It's their own damn fault for playing in a decrepit stadium that is prone to roof collapses. You can't blame the NFL for putting the game in Ford Field. It's like Houston people whining about the Miller Park games. If their owner did a better job in advance of that hurricane, it could have been resolved differently.

 

The timing of the issue can't really be pushed aside. Coaches are already making game plans for next week.

[UMFan83]

It should be at TCF. This whole Ford Stadium deal sucks. I realize TCF wouldn't be ready, but still.

 

And would there really be any difference between TCF and the RollerDome? Both teams will need to adjust to it. As long as we don't get a blizzard where AP and Co run all over us, it really shouldn't be a deciding factor or something to fear. And the last time MN got 12"+ of snow, two weeks later is was above freezing and everything was melting. December is weird up there, but not as cold ans January.

 

eta: weather.com says 20-15 degrees for next Monday. meh.

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USMN0503

 

Blame your own city/team for the Ford Field issue.

 

And yes there would be a huge difference between TCF and the dome. The Vikings are likely to know before anybody else if the dome will be playable, and they could easily gain an unfair advantage by preparing for a dome game while the Bears figure out if it's an outdoor game or dome. Also, being a night game it's even more of an issue.

 

This is true, but just getting out of the dome makes me feel a lot better about our chances for the game. For one, it won't nearly be as loud as it would be at TCF. Also, while the Bears obviously suck in bad conditions, the vikings would probably equally suck as their team was built for dome conditions, as every year at least 9 of their games are in a dome. Also, there is little familiarity with the stadium, how the winds play out, etc. The comfort of home field is partially gone, although having your own fans at the game will help a bit. I honestly thought our chancs of winning in the Metrodome BEFORE the Pats game was 25%. Now I'd say maybe 45%

[minnesotacubsfan]

I should blame the Bears? what?

 

timing of the information release aside, not an issue.

 

I was thinking you were a Minny person. It's their own damn fault for playing in a decrepit stadium that is prone to roof collapses. You can't blame the NFL for putting the game in Ford Field. It's like Houston people whining about the Miller Park games. If their owner did a better job in advance of that hurricane, it could have been resolved differently.

 

The timing of the issue can't really be pushed aside. Coaches are already making game plans for next week.

 

I didn't think I blamed anyone for it, I simply said it sucked.

 

and, how, other then clothing or shoes, does the change of fields change coaching? Its our Offense vs their Defense, and vice versa. Its not like we are Miami and we never play in cold weather.

[Guest]

They should play the game in LA since that's where the Vikings will be moving to shortly, anyway. :D

[jersey cubs fan]

I should blame the Bears? what?

 

timing of the information release aside, not an issue.

 

I was thinking you were a Minny person. It's their own damn fault for playing in a decrepit stadium that is prone to roof collapses. You can't blame the NFL for putting the game in Ford Field. It's like Houston people whining about the Miller Park games. If their owner did a better job in advance of that hurricane, it could have been resolved differently.

 

The timing of the issue can't really be pushed aside. Coaches are already making game plans for next week.

 

I didn't think I blamed anyone for it, I simply said it sucked.

 

and, how, other then clothing or shoes, does the change of fields change coaching? Its our Offense vs their Defense, and vice versa. Its not like we are Miami and we never play in cold weather.

 

How can you honestly ask that question. Field conditions matter. Domes and 15 degree nights matter.

 

 

 

I don't see why it sucks. The roller dome sucks, but having another midwestern dome to play in a day later is a blessing more than something that sucks.