Cubs Acquire Garza for Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos & Fuld

[javy knows my name]

I think that Colvin will have to "earn" a spot for 2012. If he does, there's a chance we could trade Byrd, I suppose.

 

 

I like to think that, but they're basically giving the starting RF spot to Colvin this year over Fukudome. What make you think that they won't do that next year over Byrd? I just hope Colvin just bombs as a starter, but does well as a "spot starter/4th OF" role that it'll make Hendry think "Ok, he's not starter material anymore." But I don't think that'll happened cuz Hendry LOVE those types of guys... (Colvin/Jacque Jones/Burnitz) It always seem like they're starting for the Cubs when they should be the 4th OF.

 

WTF ?? You hope Colvin bombs as a starter so you can be right ?? What a ridiculous thing to post.

What a ridiculous thing to take from that post.

 

Read the [expletive] again

[davell]

If Soto continues doing what he's capable of, Castro progresses as we think he can, and Brett Jackson can turn himself into a 15-20ish homer, solid OBP guy(personally I don't see this as a stretch) it gives us a TON of flexibility to make impact moves for other needs. If Colvin can be a league average RFer and do it for the minimum, it's a solid value to us. Because it'll help give us the flexibility to make big upgrades at 1B and one of 3B, LF, or 2B through FA or trade, with little thought on whether or not we can afford it.

 

So while I think Fukudome is the better option for 2011, giving Colvin a full year to start isn't something I'm going to get worked up over either. One, because I don't think it's a move that puts us over the hump and two, because Colvin may actually have a future with the Cubs, while Fukudome doesn't. I just want him to be league average. If he can do that, he's just fine as far as I'm concerned. If not, we've probably not lost anything anyway, as the difference between him and Fukudome probably isn't what our playoff chances hinge on as it is.

[jersey cubs fan]

If Soto continues doing what he's capable of, Castro progresses as we think he can, and Brett Jackson can turn himself into a 15-20ish homer, solid OBP guy(personally I don't see this as a stretch) it gives us a TON of flexibility to make impact moves for other needs. If Colvin can be a league average RFer and do it for the minimum, it's a solid value to us. Because it'll help give us the flexibility to make big upgrades at 1B and one of 3B, LF, or 2B through FA or trade, with little thought on whether or not we can afford it.

 

So while I think Fukudome is the better option for 2011, giving Colvin a full year to start isn't something I'm going to get worked up over either. One, because I don't think it's a move that puts us over the hump and two, because Colvin may actually have a future with the Cubs, while Fukudome doesn't. I just want him to be league average. If he can do that, he's just fine as far as I'm concerned. If not, we've probably not lost anything anyway, as the difference between him and Fukudome probably isn't what our playoff chances hinge on as it is.

 

The problem with a lot of this is these guys don't have long to give cheap production. For Soto, this is it. He's going into arbitration and will be expensive very soon. If you spend these guys cheap years playing mediocre ball then all you are doing is wasting that cheap production. Jackson is really the only one who is going to be a part of providing cheap performance so the Cubs can have the flexibility to do more elsewhere, if he makes it. Because for 2011 we already know there's no flexibility. They needed that cheap production just to get to mediocrity.

[BCVM22]

For those of you chomping at the bit to order your Garza jerseys (all none of you), Cubs.com and the MLB Shop engine suddenly have him listed as wearing no. 17.

[flyseye]

I think that Colvin will have to "earn" a spot for 2012. If he does, there's a chance we could trade Byrd, I suppose.

 

 

I like to think that, but they're basically giving the starting RF spot to Colvin this year over Fukudome. What make you think that they won't do that next year over Byrd? I just hope Colvin just bombs as a starter, but does well as a "spot starter/4th OF" role that it'll make Hendry think "Ok, he's not starter material anymore." But I don't think that'll happened cuz Hendry LOVE those types of guys... (Colvin/Jacque Jones/Burnitz) It always seem like they're starting for the Cubs when they should be the 4th OF.

 

WTF ?? You hope Colvin bombs as a starter so you can be right ?? What a ridiculous thing to post.

What a ridiculous thing to take from that post.

 

Read the [expletive] again

 

I read it again, and it is still a stupid post. Anything else?

[CUBZ99]

I think that Colvin will have to "earn" a spot for 2012. If he does, there's a chance we could trade Byrd, I suppose.

 

 

I like to think that, but they're basically giving the starting RF spot to Colvin this year over Fukudome. What make you think that they won't do that next year over Byrd? I just hope Colvin just bombs as a starter, but does well as a "spot starter/4th OF" role that it'll make Hendry think "Ok, he's not starter material anymore." But I don't think that'll happened cuz Hendry LOVE those types of guys... (Colvin/Jacque Jones/Burnitz) It always seem like they're starting for the Cubs when they should be the 4th OF.

 

WTF ?? You hope Colvin bombs as a starter so you can be right ?? What a ridiculous thing to post.

What a ridiculous thing to take from that post.

 

Read the [expletive] again

 

I hope Colvin continues to post .800+ OPS and provides cheap production during his cheap years. And if Jackson hits in AAA like he hit in AA, I wouldn't mind at all if the Cubs traded Byrd while his trade value is still high.

[javy knows my name]

I think that Colvin will have to "earn" a spot for 2012. If he does, there's a chance we could trade Byrd, I suppose.

 

 

I like to think that, but they're basically giving the starting RF spot to Colvin this year over Fukudome. What make you think that they won't do that next year over Byrd? I just hope Colvin just bombs as a starter, but does well as a "spot starter/4th OF" role that it'll make Hendry think "Ok, he's not starter material anymore." But I don't think that'll happened cuz Hendry LOVE those types of guys... (Colvin/Jacque Jones/Burnitz) It always seem like they're starting for the Cubs when they should be the 4th OF.

 

WTF ?? You hope Colvin bombs as a starter so you can be right ?? What a ridiculous thing to post.

What a ridiculous thing to take from that post.

 

Read the [expletive] again

 

I read it again, and it is still a stupid post. Anything else?

I think you only read nine words of the post.

 

A guy who doesn't believe Colvin is a legit starter makes this statement and you find it ridiculous?

[Splendid Splinter]

I hope Colvin continues to post .800+ OPS and provides cheap production during his cheap years. And if Jackson hits in AAA like he hit in AA, I wouldn't mind at all if the Cubs traded Byrd while his trade value is still high.

 

 

Just so you know... Colvin had an OPS of .787 in the second half of the season after an OPS of .844 in the first half. I think this year pitchers will know what to do with this guy. Plus his OPS is super SLG heavy, which is fine if you don't have that on your team, but the problem is we got that already with A Ram, Soriano, and possibly Pena (although he walks enough) so we don't need Colvin in the lineup as well. Fukudome is a way better fit with this team with his OBP-driven OPS. Don't forget that Fukudome has improved every year so far in his career. Right now it looks like we got 2 guys in the lineup (if Colvin starts) who get more than 50 walks in a season in Soto/Pena and possibly a 3rd in A Ram with the best guy at drawing walks will be on the bench.

 

If I had it my way... my lineup would be like this

 

Fukudome

Castro

Ramirez

Pena

Soto

Soriano

Byrd

DeWitt/Baker

 

If you had Colvin starting, where would you put him and how would the lineup be set up???

Edited January 12, 2011 by Splendid Splinter

[EhDubya]

For those of you chomping at the bit to order your Garza jerseys (all none of you), Cubs.com and the MLB Shop engine suddenly have him listed as wearing no. 17.

 

Who? You mean Colvin? Doesn't he already have a number?

[chopsx9]

I like to think that, but they're basically giving the starting RF spot to Colvin this year over Fukudome. What make you think that they won't do that next year over Byrd? I just hope Colvin just bombs as a starter, but does well as a "spot starter/4th OF" role that it'll make Hendry think "Ok, he's not starter material anymore." But I don't think that'll happened cuz Hendry LOVE those types of guys... (Colvin/Jacque Jones/Burnitz) It always seem like they're starting for the Cubs when they should be the 4th OF.

 

WTF ?? You hope Colvin bombs as a starter so you can be right ?? What a ridiculous thing to post.

What a ridiculous thing to take from that post.

 

Read the [expletive] again

 

I read it again, and it is still a stupid post. Anything else?

I think you only read nine words of the post.

 

A guy who doesn't believe Colvin is a legit starter makes this statement and you find it ridiculous?

 

Of course it's a ridiculous statement. I didn't think Randy Wells had what it took to be a ML Starter - I am THRILLED that I was wrong - and I certainly never HOPED he'd suck at it. I hope every player that puts on Cubs jersey performs at a HOF level - I could care less if it validates my assessment of their playing skills. I would be first in line jumping for joy if Fukudome was NL MVP next year. Won't happen - but I'd celebrate harder than anyone.

[chopsx9]

Fukudome's career high is .810 and his career average is .778.

 

True, and I wouldn't advocate for Kosuke to be the starting right fielder if he didn't provide very good defense in right. I'd like to see his overall offensive production rise, but he still brings more to the table than Colvin does.

 

Also keep in mind, Colvin's home run rate was very likely completely unsustainable this year. If that lowers, his SLG lowers and that OPS drops below .800 with only decent defense.

 

AND -pure speculation on my part -

I'd bet if he'd gotten the same number of at bats as he had the previous 2 years, last years number would have been a whole lot closer to his career average.

 

His OPS and wOBA have both gotten better each of the three years he's been in America. His PAs went up from year one to year two and then down from year two to year three. The biggest positive increase in his numbers came when his PAs increased from year one to year two. And the decreased PAs from 2009 to 2010 were mostly against righties, as he had 67 PAs against lefties in 2009 and 50 in 2010. So most of the decreased PAs were against the side he traditionally hits better.

 

There's really nothing to support your speculation that I can see.

 

 

Fukudome played virtually every game through the end of May. Somewhere in the middlish of May he began sucking hard which continued through July. The Cubs were quicker to pull the string this year and he missed probably 80 - 90 at bats during that time.

 

I believe if he had played through that time his season numbers would have been worse.

 

Is it possible that if the Cubs stuck with him his August hot streak would have come earlier and that it would have spurned him on to better final numbers? ABSOLUTELY.

 

I don't think it would have, but it is certainly a possibility.

[Tyrant]

Based on the past few pages of this thread, I think it'd be best for everyone if MLB just contracted the Cubs.

[soonercub]

Sounds weird to hear this guy needs more playing time because he is a good walker.

 

One thing I like about Quade is so far he seems to play match ups well. I imagine if they are going against a righty that is tough on right handed hitters then we will see Colvin in for Soriano so he can get 2 lefties in the lineup. I get the impression that the pitching match-ups will determine the outfield with Quade. Unless someone is on fire and you got to ride those hot streaks.

[Guest]

Sounds weird to hear this guy needs more playing time because he is a good walker.

 

One thing I like about Quade is so far he seems to play match ups well. I imagine if they are going against a righty that is tough on right handed hitters then we will see Colvin in for Soriano so he can get 2 lefties in the lineup. I get the impression that the pitching match-ups will determine the outfield with Quade. Unless someone is on fire and you got to ride those hot streaks.

 

Only 2 lefties? Fukudome, Pena, DeWitt and having Colvin play in place of Soriano would make 4.

[Guest]

Sounds weird to hear this guy needs more playing time because he is a good walker.

 

One thing I like about Quade is so far he seems to play match ups well. I imagine if they are going against a righty that is tough on right handed hitters then we will see Colvin in for Soriano so he can get 2 lefties in the lineup. I get the impression that the pitching match-ups will determine the outfield with Quade. Unless someone is on fire and you got to ride those hot streaks.

 

Only 2 lefties? Fukudome, Pena, DeWitt and having Colvin play in place of Soriano would make 4.

 

I think he meant in the OF.

[dew1679666265]

Fukudome played virtually every game through the end of May. Somewhere in the middlish of May he began sucking hard which continued through July. The Cubs were quicker to pull the string this year and he missed probably 80 - 90 at bats during that time.

 

I believe if he had played through that time his season numbers would have been worse.

 

Is it possible that if the Cubs stuck with him his August hot streak would have come earlier and that it would have spurned him on to better final numbers? ABSOLUTELY.

 

I don't think it would have, but it is certainly a possibility.

 

Why do you assume his struggles in very limited PAs would have continued? He's a much better hitter than he showed in those PAs and his "August hot streak" actually began in July in last year when he OPS'd nearly 1.000.

 

You could just as easily argue that Kosuke struggled in June and July because he didn't get enough PAs to work through his slump. He's proven to be a very streaky player so far, nearly to the degree of Soriano. I could take 40-50 some odd PA stretch from Soriano's career and show pretty terrible numbers, but then more times than not he follows that up with a torrid hot streak that recovers his numbers. Kosuke is very similar in that way.

 

By saying his overall numbers would have been worse than they were is to assume those hot streaks would not have come, which is arguing against his (admittedly limited) history.

[chopsx9]

Why do you assume his struggles in very limited PAs would have continued? He's a much better hitter than he showed in those PAs and his "August hot streak" actually began in July in last year when he OPS'd nearly 1.000. .

Dude I said that was a possibilty - not a likely one in my opinion. Following your exact same logic Fukudome is a much worse hitter than he is in those hot streaks...yadda yadda. His history has been to go into prolonged slumps which don't conform to any month in particular other than seeminly skipping April his first 3 years.

 

You could just as easily argue that Kosuke struggled in June and July because he didn't get enough PAs to work through his slump..

 

Isn't, virtually, this exact point in my post - I just said I didn't think it was the likely outcome - it hasn't been the last two years.

 

He's proven to be a very streaky player so far, nearly to the degree of Soriano. I could take 40-50 some odd PA stretch from Soriano's career and show pretty terrible numbers, but then more times than not he follows that up with a torrid hot streak that recovers his numbers. Kosuke is very similar in that way.

Yes but I would argue that in Soriano's good years his hot streaks outweighed his slumps by more than Fukudome's have to this point.

 

By saying his overall numbers would have been worse than they were is to assume those hot streaks would not have come, which is arguing against his (admittedly limited) history.

 

Actually, the exact opposite. To assume his numbers would have gotten better goes entirerly against his history since he had those hot streaks in previous years, where he had those extra at bats, and his numbers ended up worse anyway. He was above his career numbers and I'm saying that is a result of him sitting more during his slumps.

 

If you want to assume otherwise it's a free country...I just don't see any compelling evidence to do so.

[dew1679666265]

Albert Lyu doesn't think Garza's repertoire will translate well to Wrigley.

 

What I am concerned about is what I feel some optimistic Cubs fans (yes, they exist) are ignoring: Garza’s fly-ball tendencies are ill-suited for Wrigley Field, and his Tropicana-depressed HR/FB ratio will be exposed in 2011.

 

What this spells out is that Garza must diminish his fly-ball tendencies that worked at Tropicana Field in order to prevent a spike in home runs allowed at Wrigley. Garza has the secondary pitches to complement his four-seam fastball, but may have to develop a strong out-pitch in order to get more batters to whiff.

[Soul]

What is this whole "what optimistic Cub fans are ignoring" bit, anyway?

 

He's writing this article to make sure Cub fans don't get too optimistic? Who cares?

[Northside Blues]

Albert Lyu doesn't think Garza's repertoire will translate well to Wrigley.

 

What I am concerned about is what I feel some optimistic Cubs fans (yes, they exist) are ignoring: Garza’s fly-ball tendencies are ill-suited for Wrigley Field, and his Tropicana-depressed HR/FB ratio will be exposed in 2011.

 

What this spells out is that Garza must diminish his fly-ball tendencies that worked at Tropicana Field in order to prevent a spike in home runs allowed at Wrigley. Garza has the secondary pitches to complement his four-seam fastball, but may have to develop a strong out-pitch in order to get more batters to whiff.

 

Terrible way to think about it. Wrigley's an outdoor park. Despite the cozy dimensions, it only allows about 1 more home run per 100 flyballs hit. So that's like one or two more home runs over the course of the year for Garza, an inconsequental difference once you consider that he also has a relatively high consistent IFFB rate. Moving to Wrigley didn't spell doom for a pitcher with even higher flyball tendencies (Lilly).

[Guest]

It's really not much different than Lilly, and his HR stayed similar or even dropped. Toronto has a little more of a hitters park than Tampa, but Lilly had a significantly higher HR rate than Garza did.

[MWV]

Albert Lyu doesn't think Garza's repertoire will translate well to Wrigley.

 

What I am concerned about is what I feel some optimistic Cubs fans (yes, they exist) are ignoring: Garza’s fly-ball tendencies are ill-suited for Wrigley Field, and his Tropicana-depressed HR/FB ratio will be exposed in 2011.

 

What this spells out is that Garza must diminish his fly-ball tendencies that worked at Tropicana Field in order to prevent a spike in home runs allowed at Wrigley. Garza has the secondary pitches to complement his four-seam fastball, but may have to develop a strong out-pitch in order to get more batters to whiff.

 

He may give up fewer HRs simply by not facing AL east opponents so often.

 

          HR/FB AB/HR  HR/9	
2010 AL:  7.30%  35.1  0.97
2010 ALE*:9.10%  27.8  1.23
2010 NL:  7.20%  36.6  0.93
2010 NLC: 7.20%  36.6  0.93

 

The HR/9 above are HR hit per 9 innings by a given league/division, rather than the traditional HR allowed per 9 IP. Garza's HR allowed per 9 IP in 2010 were:

 

vs. ALE: 1.74

vs. non-ALE opponents: 0.85

2010 season total: 1.23

 

44 % of Garzas innings came against the ALE last year, and in them he gave up 61% of his homers. That he underperformed compared to the rest of baseball vs. the ALE is concerning, but in the majority of his IP he gave up fewer HR/9 than the AL average.

 

*Calculated to exclude TB hitters.

[SweetZombieJesus]

I hope Colvin and jackson both bomb out also castro too. That way I can get my dream of 8 Adam Dunn's playing at the same time.

[Sammy Sofa]

I hope Colvin and jackson both bomb out also castro too. That way I can get my dream of 8 Adam Dunn's playing at the same time.

 

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/images/stories/large/2008/09/26/Standing-Ovation_Night3.jpg

 

Damn, it was so [expletive] worth the wait.

[javy knows my name]

I hope Colvin and jackson both bomb out also castro too. That way I can get my dream of 8 Adam Dunn's playing at the same time.

Proof that life is not fair and God is apathetic to our plight: He took Chocolate Milk and spared this jamoke