College Football - Week 10 (Nov. 6th)

[fiver]

Top 10 according to Sagarin's predictor, which takes margin of victory into account (and thus on average is a better predictor of future results):

1. Oregon

2. TCU

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Boise State

6. Missouri

7. Ohio State

8. Oklahoma

9. Nebraska

10. Iowa

 

Before any Auburn fans chime in, they're 15th. Their schedule strength is improving, but they still have had the fortune of all their tough games at home, and haven't really looked impressive in a win aside from a 20 point win over Arkansas where they pulled away late.

 

Boise State is likely to keep sliding down this list as well as their schedule strength continues to take a dive. Aside from admitting Auburn is probably better than their predictor rating, this is a pretty accurate list in terms of my consideration, personally.

 

Yeah, I already looked at those rankings this morning. I'm pretty confident that Auburn's offense wasn't the same animal at the beginning of the season that it is today. Newton has gained a lot of confidence, the offensive line has started playing to their potential, and Malzahn has seemingly been able to successfully modify game plans as he has seen what different defenses show him.

 

I'm the first one in line to criticize Auburn's horrible secondary....their punter is a liability, and their field goal kicker's range (not accuracy) is questionable at times, although he did kick a 48 yard fg against ole miss. QB, RB, OL, TE, WR, DL, and LB are all strengths, imo.

 

Regarding SoS, Auburn has already beaten 4 top 20 teams (per BCS rankings), and they will play for the NC if they win the remainder of their games. They are in control of whether they get to play in Glendale.

 

Any team that has an above average throwing QB and whose defense can hold Auburn to 35 points has a very good shot at beating AU....Does that mean they are around the 15th best team in the nation moving forward? I'd rank them higher...Sagarin knows more about college football than I do though.

[bukie]

Auburn is a team that is likely better than their results show, which is going to skew them in a ratings system.

 

Aside...what bowl would Illinois get if they win out and finish 9-3 (6-2)? There's a distinct possibility that still lands them 5th in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa/Ohio State winner can all finish 7-1, and the Iowa-OSU loser would be 6-2). Even if they pass one of the top 4 in the standings, I'd wager those four teams still get bowl priority (and possibly Michigan and PSU in addition if they become eligible).

[dew1679666265]

A win would be really nice for Tennessee. I expect Tyler Bray to play quite a bit, but I still think Simms will start. If we play like we did against South Carolina and LSU, we should win easily. Memphis is bad.

 

Need to go 4-0 for a bowl game.

[hawkeyecub]

Aside...what bowl would Illinois get if they win out and finish 9-3 (6-2)? There's a distinct possibility that still lands them 5th in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa/Ohio State winner can all finish 7-1, and the Iowa-OSU loser would be 6-2). Even if they pass one of the top 4 in the standings, I'd wager those four teams still get bowl priority (and possibly Michigan and PSU in addition if they become eligible).

 

Either the Gator or Insight. Almost no chance they jump any of the top 4 teams. If the Big Ten gets two in the BCS that would move them up to the Gator. If PSU loses only one and finishes 8-4, 5-3 they could jump them also. If Illinois loses again the Texas Bowl would seem most likely.

[hawkeyecub]

Just saw that Rich Rod is 4-16 in the Big Ten and three of thsoe wins came against IU and Minnesota. He's 1-16 against everyone else.

[Guest]

Lots of potentially great top-25 games this week. Particularly looking forward to TCU-Utah. Love that TCU D

 

I'm trying to figure what result I should be wanting out of that game as a Boise St fan.

 

It's got to be Utah because they're most likely to lose one of their games after this one.

 

TCU hosts San Diego State (6-2) and plays at New Mexico (0-8).

Utah plays at Notre Dame (4-5), at San Diego State and hosts BYU (3-5).

 

So they both play San Diego State, but TCU gets the game at home. And while Notre Dame and BYU aren't great teams, they're still significantly better than New Mexico.

[Jon]

Aside...what bowl would Illinois get if they win out and finish 9-3 (6-2)? There's a distinct possibility that still lands them 5th in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa/Ohio State winner can all finish 7-1, and the Iowa-OSU loser would be 6-2). Even if they pass one of the top 4 in the standings, I'd wager those four teams still get bowl priority (and possibly Michigan and PSU in addition if they become eligible).

 

Either the Gator or Insight. Almost no chance they jump any of the top 4 teams. If the Big Ten gets two in the BCS that would move them up to the Gator. If PSU loses only one and finishes 8-4, 5-3 they could jump them also. If Illinois loses again the Texas Bowl would seem most likely.

I don't see how Iowa finishes worse than 8-4, so even a perfect finish for Illinois would likely result in Iowa getting selected ahead of them.

 

Right now, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State are fighting for:

 

2 Big Ten BCS bids - Gator, Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic

1 Big Ten BCS bid - Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic, Little Caesars

 

There's not a huge difference between the Capital One Bowl (ESPN), Outback Bowl (ABC), and Gator Bowl (ESPN2). They're all on roughly at the same time and all feature matchups against SEC teams. Insight gets a late time slot on ESPN during the week and the Texas Bowl gets ESPN early evening during the week, as well. The one to avoid is the Dallas Football Classic, as that is stuck on ESPNU the same time as the Capital One, Outback, and Gator bowls.

[Guest]

Most important thing for Boise is that Nevada keeps winning. Well, that and that they still have to win out themselves.

 

Auburn, Alabama and Oregon all losing wouldn't hurt, either.

 

Ah, they're screwed.

 

Nevada winning is mostly irrelevant for Boise now. It makes very little impact in the computers. And the way the teams have shook out a win over a 9-1 Nevada team isn't really going to move them in the polls any differently than a 7-3 Nevada team. The team that would really help them to keep winning is Va Tech. If they win out and win the ACC Championship game that would definitely be a boost in the computers and a possible boost in the polls.

 

The game that would really, really help both Boise and TCU is Oregon and Oregon State. If Oregon State pulled off the upset, it would knock Oregon out of the picture and it would provide a decent boost in the computers to both TCU and Boise.

 

So a perfect storm for Boise St would be Utah beats TCU, Oregon State beats Oregon. Should set up Boise St and the winner of Auburn/Bama for the Championship?

Unless the SEC East winner (Florida or South Carolina, most likely) wins the SEC championship. Then it may just set up Boise State-Utah.

 

It seems like the SEC East winner would almost have to win the Championship game to prevent one of Auburn/Bama/LSU from making the title game, barring a big upset of course.

 

Auburn only has Georgia and Alabama left among real teams so they're likely to finish with one loss. LSU plays Bama so one of them will have two losses and if the other one drops a game along the way (say LSU to Arkansas or Bama to Miss St), Auburn would still make the SEC title game. Even if they lost to Alabama, I'd think a big win in that game would jump them into the top-two.

 

Iowa beating Ohio State would help a lot as would Baylor winning out and beating Nebraska in the Big 12 title game (unless Nebraska loses earlier) since that would take out Oklahoma and Oklahoma State also.

[SouthSideRyan]

Aside...what bowl would Illinois get if they win out and finish 9-3 (6-2)? There's a distinct possibility that still lands them 5th in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa/Ohio State winner can all finish 7-1, and the Iowa-OSU loser would be 6-2). Even if they pass one of the top 4 in the standings, I'd wager those four teams still get bowl priority (and possibly Michigan and PSU in addition if they become eligible).

 

Either the Gator or Insight. Almost no chance they jump any of the top 4 teams. If the Big Ten gets two in the BCS that would move them up to the Gator. If PSU loses only one and finishes 8-4, 5-3 they could jump them also. If Illinois loses again the Texas Bowl would seem most likely.

I don't see how Iowa finishes worse than 8-4, so even a perfect finish for Illinois would likely result in Iowa getting selected ahead of them.

 

Right now, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State are fighting for:

 

2 Big Ten BCS bids - Gator, Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic

1 Big Ten BCS bid - Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic, Little Caesars

 

There's not a huge difference between the Capital One Bowl (ESPN), Outback Bowl (ABC), and Gator Bowl (ESPN2). They're all on roughly at the same time and all feature matchups against SEC teams. Insight gets a late time slot on ESPN during the week and the Texas Bowl gets ESPN early evening during the week, as well. The one to avoid is the Dallas Football Classic, as that is stuck on ESPNU the same time as the Capital One, Outback, and Gator bowls.

 

I'd like to play on January 1st, so I'd prefer Dallas to Texas or Insight

[hawkeyecub]

There's not a huge difference between the Capital One Bowl (ESPN), Outback Bowl (ABC), and Gator Bowl (ESPN2). They're all on roughly at the same time and all feature matchups against SEC teams. Insight gets a late time slot on ESPN during the week and the Texas Bowl gets ESPN early evening during the week, as well. The one to avoid is the Dallas Football Classic, as that is stuck on ESPNU the same time as the Capital One, Outback, and Gator bowls.

 

I had absolutely no idea the Cap One and Outback switched networks and both changed times. Why? Now you have the two best non-BCS bowls on at the same time and the one that gets lesser teams is on ABC. I hate the new Big Ten bowl schedule. I know they want to dominate New Year's Day but having everyone play at the same team is bad.

 

The whole bowl schedule this year seems odd now that I'm looking at it. Can anyone explain why the championship isn't until 1/10? Thursday the 6th seems like it would be perfect. For the first time in weeks there's no NFL on that night and it's within the season. Instead you wait until the 10th when you're even further from NYD and the NFL playoffs have already started. The Cotton Bowl on Friday night the 7th is weird too.

[Jon]

Aside...what bowl would Illinois get if they win out and finish 9-3 (6-2)? There's a distinct possibility that still lands them 5th in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa/Ohio State winner can all finish 7-1, and the Iowa-OSU loser would be 6-2). Even if they pass one of the top 4 in the standings, I'd wager those four teams still get bowl priority (and possibly Michigan and PSU in addition if they become eligible).

 

Either the Gator or Insight. Almost no chance they jump any of the top 4 teams. If the Big Ten gets two in the BCS that would move them up to the Gator. If PSU loses only one and finishes 8-4, 5-3 they could jump them also. If Illinois loses again the Texas Bowl would seem most likely.

I don't see how Iowa finishes worse than 8-4, so even a perfect finish for Illinois would likely result in Iowa getting selected ahead of them.

 

Right now, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State are fighting for:

 

2 Big Ten BCS bids - Gator, Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic

1 Big Ten BCS bid - Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic, Little Caesars

 

There's not a huge difference between the Capital One Bowl (ESPN), Outback Bowl (ABC), and Gator Bowl (ESPN2). They're all on roughly at the same time and all feature matchups against SEC teams. Insight gets a late time slot on ESPN during the week and the Texas Bowl gets ESPN early evening during the week, as well. The one to avoid is the Dallas Football Classic, as that is stuck on ESPNU the same time as the Capital One, Outback, and Gator bowls.

 

I'd like to play on January 1st, so I'd prefer Dallas to Texas or Insight

Can't swing mid-week travel? It's not like you'd miss a basketball game.

[Jon]

There's not a huge difference between the Capital One Bowl (ESPN), Outback Bowl (ABC), and Gator Bowl (ESPN2). They're all on roughly at the same time and all feature matchups against SEC teams. Insight gets a late time slot on ESPN during the week and the Texas Bowl gets ESPN early evening during the week, as well. The one to avoid is the Dallas Football Classic, as that is stuck on ESPNU the same time as the Capital One, Outback, and Gator bowls.

 

I had absolutely no idea the Cap One and Outback switched networks and both changed times. Why? Now you have the two best non-BCS bowls on at the same time and the one that gets lesser teams is on ABC. I hate the new Big Ten bowl schedule. I know they want to dominate New Year's Day but having everyone play at the same team is bad.

 

The whole bowl schedule this year seems odd now that I'm looking at it. Can anyone explain why the championship isn't until 1/10? Thursday the 6th seems like it would be perfect. For the first time in weeks there's no NFL on that night and it's within the season. Instead you wait until the 10th when you're even further from NYD and the NFL playoffs have already started. The Cotton Bowl on Friday night the 7th is weird too.

Not sure what happened in the negotiation process. Not only did the Outback and Capital One bowls switch networks, but now they're on at the exact same time with the Gator starting 30 minutes later. The Gator and Insight bowls will alternate which picks first, but the equivalent to the Gator last year was the Champs Sports Bowl, which was played mid-week. Much better spacing last year.

 

Of course, having the Insight go from the NFL Network to ESPN is a huge improvement. The Dallas Football Classic (ESPNU) is the only non-ESPN/2/ABC bowl game for the Big Ten.

[jersey cubs fan]

Can anyone explain why the championship isn't until 1/10? Thursday the 6th seems like it would be perfect. For the first time in weeks there's no NFL on that night and it's within the season. Instead you wait until the 10th when you're even further from NYD and the NFL playoffs have already started. The Cotton Bowl on Friday night the 7th is weird too.

 

Testing waters for potential play-in championship game?

[NewUserName]

Hasn't the Outback, Gator and Capital One Bowls been at the same time in the past? The only difference was the Big Ten was not in the Gator Bowl.

[jersey cubs fan]

I for one love having several games on at once, especially with slightly staggered starting times to avoid pregame shows, halftimes and other nonsense.

[Jon]

Hasn't the Outback, Gator and Capital One Bowls been at the same time in the past? The only difference was the Big Ten was not in the Gator Bowl.

No, they were spaced out pretty fairly considering the Gator was ACC vs. Big East.

 

Here were the NYD bowls last year:

 

Outback - 11 AM ET - ESPN

Capital One - 1 PM ET - ABC

Gator - 1 PM ET - CBS

Rose Bowl - 4:30 PM ET - ABC

Sugar Bowl - 8:30 PM ET - FOX

 

This year:

 

Dallas Football Classic - 12 PM ET - ESPNU

Outback - 1 PM ET - ABC

Capital One - 1 PM ET - ESPN

Gator - 1:30 PM ET - ESPN2

Rose Bowl - 5 PM ET - ESPN

Fiesta - 8:30 PM ET - ESPN

 

Last year, there were 3 games before the later BCS games with only an hour of overlap within the same conference.

 

This year, there are 4 games before the later BCS games with very significant overlap.

[SouthSideRyan]

Aside...what bowl would Illinois get if they win out and finish 9-3 (6-2)? There's a distinct possibility that still lands them 5th in the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Michigan State and the Iowa/Ohio State winner can all finish 7-1, and the Iowa-OSU loser would be 6-2). Even if they pass one of the top 4 in the standings, I'd wager those four teams still get bowl priority (and possibly Michigan and PSU in addition if they become eligible).

 

Either the Gator or Insight. Almost no chance they jump any of the top 4 teams. If the Big Ten gets two in the BCS that would move them up to the Gator. If PSU loses only one and finishes 8-4, 5-3 they could jump them also. If Illinois loses again the Texas Bowl would seem most likely.

I don't see how Iowa finishes worse than 8-4, so even a perfect finish for Illinois would likely result in Iowa getting selected ahead of them.

 

Right now, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State are fighting for:

 

2 Big Ten BCS bids - Gator, Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic

1 Big Ten BCS bid - Insight, Texas, Dallas Football Classic, Little Caesars

 

There's not a huge difference between the Capital One Bowl (ESPN), Outback Bowl (ABC), and Gator Bowl (ESPN2). They're all on roughly at the same time and all feature matchups against SEC teams. Insight gets a late time slot on ESPN during the week and the Texas Bowl gets ESPN early evening during the week, as well. The one to avoid is the Dallas Football Classic, as that is stuck on ESPNU the same time as the Capital One, Outback, and Gator bowls.

 

I'd like to play on January 1st, so I'd prefer Dallas to Texas or Insight

Can't swing mid-week travel? It's not like you'd miss a basketball game.

 

It's more of an event to go out a couple days in advance, do New Years in the town, then come back the 3rd. Flying out to Tempe or Houston on the 27th and farting around the next 3 days doesn't quite have the same appeal to me.

[Jon]

Jake Locker isn't having the season he wanted. He'll miss the game against Oregon with cracked ribs.

[UMFan83]

Just saw that Rich Rod is 4-16 in the Big Ten and three of thsoe wins came against IU and Minnesota. He's 1-16 against everyone else.

 

Yup, and that win over Wisconsin 2 years ago was the flukiest fluke ever. Interestingly, Minnesota was actually halfway decent when we beat them.

 

I'm starting to actually think that the Michigan team that went 3-9 and lost to Toledo, but beat #9 Wisconsin and a 7-2 Minnesota team on the road was actually the best of the RRod teams.

[UMFan83]

It'd be great if Michigan could somehow beat Illinois this weekend. Our fans are starting to sound like ND fans with all the bitching and whining.

 

Sorry bout that. The good news is, that we are well on our way to being the next Notre Dame :).

 

Despite my entire NSBB monkier being about being a UM Fan, I am a very fickle football fan that can't handle that the one team he is supposed to count on being good every year is a huge mess. I've always been a bigger UM Hoops fan anyways. Will always watch and follow football, but I became a Michigan fan more from guys like Traylor, Bullock, Ward, Taylor, Conlan, etc

[Flames24Rulz]

Uh yeah. If Illinois were to make the Gator Bowl, I'd love that. It certainly seems like that its been one of the bigger bowl games to lose its luster lately, but it's still a New Year's Day game with a pretty rich history.

 

@ Michigan is going to be tough. One thing that Illinois has had trouble with on defense this year is mobile QB's. In the NIU game, Harnish ran all over them and kept them in it all the way until the very end of the game. Of course Pryor's two big runs ultimately ended up being the deciding factor as to why Ohio State beat Illinois. I think NIU's a better team than Michigan, but it's something to look out for from Denard on Saturday.

 

I think Illinois wins but it's going to be a much tougher game than the last two games have been.

[SpongeWorthy]

It'd be great if Michigan could somehow beat Illinois this weekend. Our fans are starting to sound like ND fans with all the bitching and whining.

 

Sorry bout that. The good news is, that we are well on our way to being the next Notre Dame :).

 

Despite my entire NSBB monkier being about being a UM Fan, I am a very fickle football fan that can't handle that the one team he is supposed to count on being good every year is a huge mess. I've always been a bigger UM Hoops fan anyways. Will always watch and follow football, but I became a Michigan fan more from guys like Traylor, Bullock, Ward, Taylor, Conlan, etc

 

So you've got Charles Woodson making amazing plays, winning titles, and generally being dominant but what really drew you to Michigan were the middling basketball teams led by Tractor Traylor's fat ass?

[SouthSideRyan]

UMFan is old school. He considers the NIT to be the more important tourney.

[UMFan83]

It'd be great if Michigan could somehow beat Illinois this weekend. Our fans are starting to sound like ND fans with all the bitching and whining.

 

Sorry bout that. The good news is, that we are well on our way to being the next Notre Dame :).

 

Despite my entire NSBB monkier being about being a UM Fan, I am a very fickle football fan that can't handle that the one team he is supposed to count on being good every year is a huge mess. I've always been a bigger UM Hoops fan anyways. Will always watch and follow football, but I became a Michigan fan more from guys like Traylor, Bullock, Ward, Taylor, Conlan, etc

 

So you've got Charles Woodson making amazing plays, winning titles, and generally being dominant but what really drew you to Michigan were the middling basketball teams led by Tractor Traylor's fat ass?

 

I can't explain it. Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the 1997 National Title run.

 

OK, this is what happened. This is how I became a Michigan sports fan. It doesn't exactly paint me in a good light as a Michigan fan. Until 1995, I never followed college sports at all. Then, being a 13 year old kid who loved his local sports teams, became enamoured with the 95 Northwestern Rose Bowl team. I mean how could you not like that story. The next year in 96, I followed Northwestern again to start the year. Midyear, my dad took a friend and I to the Michigan Northwestern game in 96. A year prior, my mom took my shopping at Woodfield and took me into champs sports and for some reason I picked out a Michigan jersey, because I thought the maize and blue colors were cool. I knew it was a Michigan jersey but I definitely didn't buy it because of that. The jersey was of #12 Mr. Scott Dreisbach. I didn't think much of it until the opportunity to goto the NW/UM game came up. At that point I thought "awesome I have a jersey for one of these teams, I'm gonna wear it to the game". So I wore it and celebrated proudly when Michigan stormed out to a 19-0 lead going into the 4th. Of course NW scored 20 in the 4th and won with a last second FG, but I didn't care.

 

So my seeds for Michigan were planted. That year I decided to follow Michigan basketball too. And they started out great that year. They were even #4 in the nation at one point. But they started sucking, as the next fab 5 tended to do, and ended up blowing all chances of making the NCAA Tourney, unless they won their last game against inferior OSU. I was devistated when OSU went on a run late to take a 4-5 point lead with under a minute left. Upset, I gave up and went outside to my driveway hoop to pretend like I was leading a comeback. And while that was going on, they did comeback and win. They actually didn't make the Tourney that year, but I watched them all next year after the 97 Michigan football team did their thing. The 97 bball team won the inagural Big 10 tourney, had a 3 seed in the tourney, and I was officially hooked...completely unaware that their 2nd round flameout to UCLA that year would be their last appearance in the tourney for like 11 years.

 

I don't know why I typed all that out but there it is.

 

Edit: And screw you SSR, actually winning the NIT in 1996 was a huge part of why I became a Michigan fan. I was so upset they got snubbed to the big dance, I thought winning the NIT would show those assholes they made a mistake, as every single NIT winner has felt.

[SpongeWorthy]

No one actually called that group of players the next Fab 5 did they?