Starting a Fire Sale

[lumafia]

In all seriousness though, I wonder if a lot of the players with NTC's would just outright waive their NTC if the Cubs declare a fire sale

 

The players that need to be moved the most are immovable based on their contract, not the NTC. The only player that we could trade that any other team would want right now is Ted Lilly. All the other guys with ridiculous contracts are performing horribly.

 

If you were to try to come up with a worst-case scenario for a major league team, the 2010 Cubs would be it.

 

Not that I would expect them to make him available, but you don't think other teams would be interested in Dempster?

 

Nope. The team that picks Dempster up are on the hook through 2012 for $14 mil each year. The only reason other teams would want Lilly is because he is a FA and they don't have to pay him beyond this year.

[dew1679666265]

The Cubs are in a real pickle.

 

I don't see how they get out of the mess Hendry created without some sort of a miracle.

 

Long term? Almost all the big contracts are set to expire by 2012 at the latest. Soriano and Z are the only contracts longer than that. There should be plenty of cap room after next season and certainly after 2012.

 

Short term, you're right. We probably won't be very good this year or next at this point.

2013 is a long time from now. A long time.

 

I fully expect us to be able to compete by 2012 and maybe next season.

 

We've had this discussion before, but we only have $62 million currently invested in the 2012 season. With good FA moves and some minor league contributions, this team can be competitive no later than 2012.

[dew1679666265]

Nope. The team that picks Dempster up are on the hook through 2012 for $14 mil each year. The only reason other teams would want Lilly is because he is a FA and they don't have to pay him beyond this year.

 

Unless it's just purely financial, I can't imagine a team not wanting a top-20 pitcher (by xFIP) in the majors at $14 mil a year. Much worse pitchers have gotten $10-12 mil the past couple of years.

[fromthestretch]

In all seriousness though, I wonder if a lot of the players with NTC's would just outright waive their NTC if the Cubs declare a fire sale

 

The players that need to be moved the most are immovable based on their contract, not the NTC. The only player that we could trade that any other team would want right now is Ted Lilly. All the other guys with ridiculous contracts are performing horribly.

 

If you were to try to come up with a worst-case scenario for a major league team, the 2010 Cubs would be it.

 

Not that I would expect them to make him available, but you don't think other teams would be interested in Dempster?

 

Nope. The team that picks Dempster up are on the hook through 2012 for $14 mil each year. The only reason other teams would want Lilly is because he is a FA and they don't have to pay him beyond this year.

 

The Cubs could pitch in some cash, but I doubt they'd need to throw in much. We're talking about a guy who's been good for 200 innings the past two seasons (and is on pace to easily reach that this season), has shown solid control without giving up a crapton of hits, and has kept the ERA in the mid 3's or lower since converting back to a starter. I don't think it's a reach to think that some teams might be interested...especially if they were in a position to hunt for a free agent starter in the offseason anyway.

[Guest]

The Cubs are in a real pickle.

 

I don't see how they get out of the mess Hendry created without some sort of a miracle.

 

Long term? Almost all the big contracts are set to expire by 2012 at the latest. Soriano and Z are the only contracts longer than that. There should be plenty of cap room after next season and certainly after 2012.

 

Short term, you're right. We probably won't be very good this year or next at this point.

2013 is a long time from now. A long time.

 

I fully expect us to be able to compete by 2012 and maybe next season.

 

We've had this discussion before, but we only have $62 million currently invested in the 2012 season. With good FA moves and some minor league contributions, this team can be competitive no later than 2012.

Competitive by next season?

[dew1679666265]

The Cubs are in a real pickle.

 

I don't see how they get out of the mess Hendry created without some sort of a miracle.

 

Long term? Almost all the big contracts are set to expire by 2012 at the latest. Soriano and Z are the only contracts longer than that. There should be plenty of cap room after next season and certainly after 2012.

 

Short term, you're right. We probably won't be very good this year or next at this point.

2013 is a long time from now. A long time.

 

He meant by 2012. That's only a year and a half of baseball away. After 2012 the Z contract also is off the books. Although he did miss that the Cubs will also have Byrd and likely Dempster in 2012 but the Cubs will almost certainly want both of them.

 

Last year at this time it was much worse than it is now. At that time, it was 18 months until some big contracts went away (Lee, Aramis, and Lilly) and those were 3 of the cornerstones of the team. Now the Cubs have gone a year without adding any big contracts and will have a whole lot of money coming off both this year and next year.

 

They have a whole lot of flexibility. They could win big by next year if they wanted to but it wouldn't be the smartest move. With smart moves they'll be ok next year and strong by 2012.

 

I actually just didn't word my post well. You did a much better job.

 

That said, five of the big contracts we have through 2012 (Soriano, Z, Dempster and Byrd) have averaged a combined 10.4 WAR over the past three seasons. Their collective WAR this year is 7.6. They've been valuable and could still be in 2011 and 2012.

 

Shark is due $6.5 in 2012, however.

[CubColtPacer]

The Cubs are in a real pickle.

 

I don't see how they get out of the mess Hendry created without some sort of a miracle.

 

Long term? Almost all the big contracts are set to expire by 2012 at the latest. Soriano and Z are the only contracts longer than that. There should be plenty of cap room after next season and certainly after 2012.

 

Short term, you're right. We probably won't be very good this year or next at this point.

2013 is a long time from now. A long time.

 

He meant by 2012. That's only a year and a half of baseball away. After 2012 the Z contract also is off the books. Although he did miss that the Cubs will also have Byrd and likely Dempster in 2012 but the Cubs will almost certainly want both of them.

 

Last year at this time it was much worse than it is now. At that time, it was 18 months until some big contracts went away (Lee, Aramis, and Lilly) and those were 3 of the cornerstones of the team. Now the Cubs have gone a year without adding any big contracts and will have a whole lot of money coming off both this year and next year.

 

They have a whole lot of flexibility. They could win big by next year if they wanted to but it wouldn't be the smartest move. With smart moves they'll be ok next year and strong by 2012.

 

I actually just didn't word my post well. You did a much better job.

 

That said, five of the big contracts we have through 2012 (Soriano, Z, Dempster and Byrd) have averaged a combined 10.4 WAR over the past three seasons. Their collective WAR this year is 7.6. They've been valuable and could still be in 2011 and 2012.

 

Shark is due $6.5 in 2012, however.

 

Samardzija's contract is a club option for that year. So unless he comes up and blows everybody away as a starter next year it won't be picked up.

[dew1679666265]

Competitive by next season?

 

Sure. As CCP said, it wouldn't be the smartest of moves, but they could piecemeal together a competitive team. Especially if they get good contributions from farm guys like Cashner, J Jackson, Gaub, etc.

 

This is assuming they don't drop payroll significantly and leave it at least in the $130-140 range. If so, they'll have $30-40 mil to spend between raises and additions. That's enough to potentially be competitive for a playoff spot by next season. I would prefer to use next year to rebuild a bit and clear some salaries, but it's certainly doable.

[Keener98]

A lot of people didn't pick the reds to finish below us, and if they did it's pretty clear they underestimated the reds. So... What's your point?

 

I think he was just saying that Soriano is setting the sights a bit low to be content with a split.

 

The problem is that he doesn't seem to even know the Reds are the team in first place right now.

 

I'm well aware of the fact the Reds are in 1st place, but it's not exactly like they're the 1927 Yankees. Everyone makes a big deal about how mediocre the NL Central is. For a player to hope for a split at home against the Reds just goes to show how lost this team is. The discussion about "firing Piniella" should be centered on the fact that this team that this team has no fire and doesn't seem to care.

 

Thats actually about the last thing that thread should be centered on as it has no merit or proof. Z tried fighting a teammate showing the "fire" and boy has it done wonders. Lee slammed his helmet down after hitting into another DP, there is that fire and care, but yet Cubs still lose.

[dew1679666265]

Samardzija's contract is a club option for that year. So unless he comes up and blows everybody away as a starter next year it won't be picked up.

 

You're right. I was looking only at the 2010-2014 payroll obligations on Cot's and it listed the $6.5 to Shark as an obligation (while showing the buyouts for Aramis and Silva).

 

That probably means just $56 million invested for the 2012 season, then.

[dew1679666265]

A potential team the Cubs could compete with in 2011:

 

1B: Dunn (3/36)                   BE: Font/Baker
2B: Font/Baker                    BE: Wellington Castillo
3B: Aramis (14.6)                 BE: Colvin
SS: Castro                        BE: Wigginton (1/5)
RF: Kosuke (14.5)                 BE: Kearns (1/1)
CF: Byrd (5.5)
LF: Soriano (19)
C: Soto

SP: Dempster (14.5)               RP: Grabow (4.5)
SP: Gorzelanny                    RP: Caridad
SP: Wells                         RP: Gaub
SP: Zambrano (18.875)             RP: Stevens
SP: Silva (12.75)                 RP: Marshall
                                 RP: Cashner
                                 CL: Marmol

 

That gives you this lineup:

 

Kosuke

Soto

Dunn

Soriano

Aramis

Byrd

Font/Baker

Castro

 

That team can contend and the payroll doesn't exceed $140. If you can pawn off Silva or Grabow, even better, but I don't know that we'll find the right deals for either. There's a lot in there I don't like, but that team could contend with a rebound from Aramis and Z and decent to good production from Soriano. If you can trade Silva or if Wells doesn't rebound, you have Jackson ready in AAA and you have Colvin to try to keep the old outfield healthy.

[Backtobanks]

A lot of people didn't pick the reds to finish below us, and if they did it's pretty clear they underestimated the reds. So... What's your point?

 

I think he was just saying that Soriano is setting the sights a bit low to be content with a split.

 

The problem is that he doesn't seem to even know the Reds are the team in first place right now.

 

I'm well aware of the fact the Reds are in 1st place, but it's not exactly like they're the 1927 Yankees. Everyone makes a big deal about how mediocre the NL Central is. For a player to hope for a split at home against the Reds just goes to show how lost this team is. The discussion about "firing Piniella" should be centered on the fact that this team that this team has no fire and doesn't seem to care.

 

Thats actually about the last thing that thread should be centered on as it has no merit or proof. Z tried fighting a teammate showing the "fire" and boy has it done wonders. Lee slammed his helmet down after hitting into another DP, there is that fire and care, but yet Cubs still lose.

 

Actually what I should have said was the manager and coaches seem to be totally disinterested and have accepted failure. Two perfect examples today with the breakup of the double play at 2B where the runner was obviously out of the base path and the game ending double play where Colvin should have been called safe. Nobody argued either call and DeJesus kind of shrugged his shoulders as he walked off the field. Combine the comatose demeanor of Lou with the terrible record and you have a reason to fire him.

[Clem Fandango]

Not for nothing, but I'm pretty sure Marlon Byrd might be worth a decent package at the moment. He's putting up stellar offensive numbers for a center fielder right now, and he's very affordable. A team might bite on that and give up a decent prospect for him at the least I would think.

[CincyCubsFan]

A potential team the Cubs could compete with in 2011:

 

1B: Dunn (3/36)                   BE: Font/Baker
2B: Font/Baker                    BE: Wellington Castillo
3B: Aramis (14.6)                 BE: Colvin
SS: Castro                        BE: Wigginton (1/5)
RF: Kosuke (14.5)                 BE: Kearns (1/1)
CF: Byrd (5.5)
LF: Soriano (19)
C: Soto

SP: Dempster (14.5)               RP: Grabow (4.5)
SP: Gorzelanny                    RP: Caridad
SP: Wells                         RP: Gaub
SP: Zambrano (18.875)             RP: Stevens
SP: Silva (12.75)                 RP: Marshall
                                 RP: Cashner
                                 CL: Marmol

 

That gives you this lineup:

 

Kosuke

Soto

Dunn

Soriano

Aramis

Byrd

Font/Baker

Castro

 

That team can contend and the payroll doesn't exceed $140. If you can pawn off Silva or Grabow, even better, but I don't know that we'll find the right deals for either. There's a lot in there I don't like, but that team could contend with a rebound from Aramis and Z and decent to good production from Soriano. If you can trade Silva or if Wells doesn't rebound, you have Jackson ready in AAA and you have Colvin to try to keep the old outfield healthy.

 

So basically you're taking this year's team and adding Dunn and subtracting Lilly?

 

Yea, sounds like a winner.

 

I feel like should be able to improve at second base in the offseason, but I don't care enough to look up who's going to be available.

[sweetpeteman]

A potential team the Cubs could compete with in 2011:

 

1B: Dunn (3/36)                   BE: Font/Baker
2B: Font/Baker                    BE: Wellington Castillo
3B: Aramis (14.6)                 BE: Colvin
SS: Castro                        BE: Wigginton (1/5)
RF: Kosuke (14.5)                 BE: Kearns (1/1)
CF: Byrd (5.5)
LF: Soriano (19)
C: Soto

SP: Dempster (14.5)               RP: Grabow (4.5)
SP: Gorzelanny                    RP: Caridad
SP: Wells                         RP: Gaub
SP: Zambrano (18.875)             RP: Stevens
SP: Silva (12.75)                 RP: Marshall
                                 RP: Cashner
                                 CL: Marmol

 

That gives you this lineup:

 

Kosuke

Soto

Dunn

Soriano

Aramis

Byrd

Font/Baker

Castro

 

That team can contend and the payroll doesn't exceed $140. If you can pawn off Silva or Grabow, even better, but I don't know that we'll find the right deals for either. There's a lot in there I don't like, but that team could contend with a rebound from Aramis and Z and decent to good production from Soriano. If you can trade Silva or if Wells doesn't rebound, you have Jackson ready in AAA and you have Colvin to try to keep the old outfield healthy.

 

So basically you're taking this year's team and adding Dunn and subtracting Lilly?

 

Yea, sounds like a winner.

 

I feel like should be able to improve at second base in the offseason, but I don't care enough to look up who's going to be available.

 

Unless they trade for Uggla, no.

[YearofDaCubs]

I have no idea why the moron GM hasn't already begun to trade the veteran players.

[SouthSideRyan]

You improve 2B by not running Ryan Theriot's worthless ass out there every day

[davell]

The guys I figure will at least be bandied about, if not dealt, by the Cubs before the deadline would be as follows:

 

Ted Lilly

Derek Lee(assuming he'd waive the NTC to go to a contender)

Ryan Theriot

Kosuke Fukudome

Mike Fontenot

Xavier Nady

Carlos Silva

Jeff Baker

 

I think Lilly could net us a VERY nice return personally, maybe even a top 100ish type talent included in the package. The hope with Lee is he is still thought of highly by someone and his off(age?) year hasn't decreased his value TOO much. If it has, I doubt the Cubs trade him, even if we don't keep him next year. Trading Theriot is looking like it could STILL net us something decent, with teams losing middle infielders at this point. By decent, I mean someone who may at least be in that team's top 20 prospects or something like that. Trading Fukudome won't be easy, as we'll have to eat alot of money and probably not get all that much in return. At least not what he's probably worth anyway. My guess is he stays. Fontenot could be dealt if Theriot isn't. My guess is it's Theriot that gets moved and my guess is Fontenot could actually bring more of a return. Nady will probably get dealt to a team looking for a veteran bat off the bench, but he won't bring much of a return either. Same with Baker and he'd bring even less. Silva is interesting, but I still doubt teams will be willing to take on his contract personally, as I doubt they trust him as of yet. And I don't really see the reason to get rid of him unless a team is willing to take the money owed with it.

[dew1679666265]

A potential team the Cubs could compete with in 2011:

 

1B: Dunn (3/36)                   BE: Font/Baker
2B: Font/Baker                    BE: Wellington Castillo
3B: Aramis (14.6)                 BE: Colvin
SS: Castro                        BE: Wigginton (1/5)
RF: Kosuke (14.5)                 BE: Kearns (1/1)
CF: Byrd (5.5)
LF: Soriano (19)
C: Soto

SP: Dempster (14.5)               RP: Grabow (4.5)
SP: Gorzelanny                    RP: Caridad
SP: Wells                         RP: Gaub
SP: Zambrano (18.875)             RP: Stevens
SP: Silva (12.75)                 RP: Marshall
                                 RP: Cashner
                                 CL: Marmol

 

That gives you this lineup:

 

Kosuke

Soto

Dunn

Soriano

Aramis

Byrd

Font/Baker

Castro

 

That team can contend and the payroll doesn't exceed $140. If you can pawn off Silva or Grabow, even better, but I don't know that we'll find the right deals for either. There's a lot in there I don't like, but that team could contend with a rebound from Aramis and Z and decent to good production from Soriano. If you can trade Silva or if Wells doesn't rebound, you have Jackson ready in AAA and you have Colvin to try to keep the old outfield healthy.

 

So basically you're taking this year's team and adding Dunn and subtracting Lilly?

 

Yea, sounds like a winner.

 

I feel like should be able to improve at second base in the offseason, but I don't care enough to look up who's going to be available.

 

This team is contending if we had normal years from Lee, Ramirez and Z. Dunn will take care of improving first base back to Lee's standards (or close) and I can't imagine both Aramis and Z being utterly awful again next year. And if they are atrocious again, we probably can't improve enough to contend. Also, there's really no upgrade out there at second on the FA market. Christian Guzman is one of the best middle infielders available this offseason.

 

The biggest thing I don't like about the team I put together is defense. Dunn is a huge dropoff from Lee and Kearns being the platoon guy with Kosuke would give us awful OF defense against lefties. I think a really good top 6 spots in the order (and maybe 7) would overcome that, though.

[dew1679666265]

You improve 2B by not running Ryan Theriot's worthless ass out there every day

 

Honestly, a strict left/righty platoon between Baker and Fontenot could be pretty productive. We're just not doing that.

[dew1679666265]

I have no idea why the moron GM hasn't already begun to trade the veteran players.

 

Hendry's always been slow to trade away players. Even guys like Sosa and Bradley who it was obvious were going to be traded took the better part of the offseason each time.

 

Between his patience and some of the big contracts he'll be trying to move, I wouldn't expect that much movement before the deadline.

[risico]

Two guys the Cubs should entertain trading are Carlos Marmol and Geovany Soto.

 

Marmol is having a record-shattering season no doubt, but closers are generally overvalued in trade deadline deals and Marmol is still young and cheap enough to command a good return.

 

Soto is also having a nice season and might be especially valuable to a team like the Red Sox who need a good catcher. He will probably return a few good prospects. He is a valuable player and still young, but I worry that the he won't age well.

 

Also, I keep hearing that the Cubs can just offer Lilly/Lee arbitration and get comp. picks for them, but I'm not sure they refuse arbitration if the Cubs offer it.

 

I also don't see Byrd/Silva going anywhere. Those are Hendry's prized acquisitions.

[Outshined_One]

Soto is also having a nice season and might be especially valuable to a team like the Red Sox who need a good catcher. He will probably return a few good prospects. He is a valuable player and still young, but I worry that the he won't age well.

 

Marmol I can kind of buy since this system has a glut of pitching prospects who could potentially fill his shoes, but catchers of Soto's quality are a rarity...despite what our bonehead manager thinks. There's no one available in the system who can provide the overall value at catcher that Soto can provide. The free agent market doesn't look particularly good for catchers, which would make that even worse. Moreover, this team needs all the offense it can get.

 

To me, there's no harm in keeping Soto at least through the deadline, unless a team makes some insane offer that blows away the Cubs. However, I don't see that happening.

[NCCubFan]

The Cubs should keep Soto. He'll be here next year and Lou won't, so if he just has the patience to ride it out this year he'll regain his starting job.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I really dont see the Cubs parting with young guys like Marmol and Soto. While I do see a lot of key players moving on, such as Lee, Lilly, hopefully Theriot, and maybe Zambrano and Ramirez and start rebuilding, I dont see them rebuilding from the ground. We'll still will have vets Soriano and Byrd and younger players like Castro and Colvin. I think that it will be a relatively quick rebuild, and done through trades and free agents rather than bringing guys from the farm. Id love to see Adrian Gonzalez come over, as Ive stated before, or Prince Fielder as a backup plan. This is still a big market team with money, and I highly, highly doubt that they turn into the Pirates or the Royals. While we will be seeing more home growns than in the past years, theres also money for free agents, and no reason to trade Soto unless someone on the farm emerges as a clear cut replacement, and Castillo strikes me as a backup catcher, and I dont know what to think of Chirinos or Clevenger, and thats about it as far as catching prospects go. As for Marmol, while we do have several great pitching prospects, Marmols shoes will not be easy to fill by any means.