Starting a Fire Sale

[A-Cal]

I think Theriot may find his way to the Mets or Twins, but more likely the Mets. I have no idea where Lilly goes, but he is definitely gone. Other than that, I don't think there will be much activity. I do hope I am wrong though.

 

I also love how Fukudome can block a trade to half the freaking league. I am trying to think of a contract swap for him, but I am coming up empty thus far.

 

Why would have to be a contract swap for Fukudome? Given the escalated contracts, his production, and ability to play CF, I don't see why the Cubs would have to trade contracts as it would likely defeat the purpose of trading him which would be to clear payroll and obtain younger players.

 

If not a contract swap, then they will have to eat a significant portion of the contract to get anything of value in return. Kosuke is an interesting case. Even eating some of his contract, I don't see teams giving up much of anything for him. In all honesty, why the hell would they? In two seasons he has established his hot start and then fade into the summer sun track record. It seems to be happening yet again this year.

[Keener98]

I think Theriot may find his way to the Mets or Twins, but more likely the Mets. I have no idea where Lilly goes, but he is definitely gone. Other than that, I don't think there will be much activity. I do hope I am wrong though.

 

I also love how Fukudome can block a trade to half the freaking league. I am trying to think of a contract swap for him, but I am coming up empty thus far.

 

Why would have to be a contract swap for Fukudome? Given the escalated contracts, his production, and ability to play CF, I don't see why the Cubs would have to trade contracts as it would likely defeat the purpose of trading him which would be to clear payroll and obtain younger players.

 

If not a contract swap, then they will have to eat a significant portion of the contract to get anything of value in return. Kosuke is an interesting case. Even eating some of his contract, I don't see teams giving up much of anything for him. In all honesty, why the hell would they? In two seasons he has established his hot start and then fade into the summer sun track record. It seems to be happening yet again this year.

 

July 2009 OPS .926

August 2009 OPS .904

[dew1679666265]

I wouldn't be all that aggressive in trading Kosuke. If we get a good deal for him (relief from most of his salary and/or a decent return) then I'd trade him. But I don't think it's necessary to dump him for nothing or pay most of his contract just to get rid of him.

[UK1679666180]

I wouldn't be all that aggressive in trading Kosuke. If we get a good deal for him (relief from most of his salary and/or a decent return) then I'd trade him. But I don't think it's necessary to dump him for nothing or pay most of his contract just to get rid of him.

 

Then what are you going to do with Colvin?

 

They need to see what they got in him. This team isn't going to be competing in the near future with Soriano not going anywhere, it comes down to Byrd and Fukudome and while Byrd would have a higher net return, he's likely a better player at a cheaper cost.

[jersey cubs fan]

I wouldn't be all that aggressive in trading Kosuke. If we get a good deal for him (relief from most of his salary and/or a decent return) then I'd trade him. But I don't think it's necessary to dump him for nothing or pay most of his contract just to get rid of him.

 

Then what are you going to do with Colvin?

 

They need to see what they got in him. This team isn't going to be competing in the near future with Soriano not going anywhere, it comes down to Byrd and Fukudome and while Byrd would have a higher net return, he's likely a better player at a cheaper cost.

 

Send Colvin to the minors, hope he flashes some brilliant numbers and trade him. He's going to be exposed big time if he becomes a starting RF. As flawed as his game is, at least Fukudome is a tremendous OBP guy, and a top notch defender.

[UK1679666180]

Unless the Cubs are buyers, they're not going to trade Colvin regardless of the run at Iowa.

 

If he gets exposed the rest of the year, they likely go from 77 win team to a 75 team with Colvin out there instead of Fukudome and the know whether they have someone who could project as a starter or a 4th OF'er. Sendhim to Iowa isn't likely going to answer that unless he bombs at Iowa.

 

Next year, they have that freed up salary and whatever they receive for Fukudome and plan accordingly likely with a new GM and new philosophy.

[dew1679666265]

Then what are you going to do with Colvin?

 

They need to see what they got in him. This team isn't going to be competing in the near future with Soriano not going anywhere, it comes down to Byrd and Fukudome and while Byrd would have a higher net return, he's likely a better player at a cheaper cost.

 

What to do with Colvin is a tough decision. I can't believe Fukudome will have no trade value whatsoever at any point from now until the deadline next year. At some point, we'll be able to trade Fuku for something of value and I'd hate to force a trade now and get nothing in return.

 

I'm not at all opposed to trading Fukudome and I think his value should be at a decent level right now, my main point earlier was to say we shouldn't dump him for nothing. If there's no market right now, there likely will be at some point – even if it's in the offseason or during next year. In the meantime, Colvin can either get experience at the ML level in a bench/platoon role or get ABs in AAA.

[jersey cubs fan]

Then what are you going to do with Colvin?

 

They need to see what they got in him. This team isn't going to be competing in the near future with Soriano not going anywhere, it comes down to Byrd and Fukudome and while Byrd would have a higher net return, he's likely a better player at a cheaper cost.

 

What to do with Colvin is a tough decision. I can't believe Fukudome will have no trade value whatsoever at any point from now until the deadline next year. At some point, we'll be able to trade Fuku for something of value and I'd hate to force a trade now and get nothing in return.

 

I'm not at all opposed to trading Fukudome and I think his value should be at a decent level right now, my main point earlier was to say we shouldn't dump him for nothing. If there's no market right now, there likely will be at some point – even if it's in the offseason or during next year. In the meantime, Colvin can either get experience at the ML level in a bench/platoon role or get ABs in AAA.

 

Yeah, what to do with Colvin should not be the priority of this team. They have plenty of time to make a decision on him.

[davearm2]

Fukudome's contract would be a pretty big hindrance IMO. Guys like him don't get $13M a year anymore.

 

The Cubs would probably have to include a bunch of cash just to get a mildly interesting prospect or two.

[dew1679666265]

Fukudome's contract would be a pretty big hindrance IMO. Guys like him don't get $13M a year anymore.

 

The Cubs would probably have to include a bunch of cash just to get a mildly interesting prospect or two.

 

He has a career .775 OPS, but his OPS has improved each of the last 3 years and is sitting at .823 right now. He's not an offensive force by any means, but his .367 career OBP plus very good right field defense ought to garner a pretty decent level of interest.

[dew1679666265]

Yeah, what to do with Colvin should not be the priority of this team. They have plenty of time to make a decision on him.

 

It's not so much that I don't think we should focus on Colvin, it's just that I don't see a pressing need to get him in the lineup. I think he can eventually be a quality starter, but he still has options and is still young. There's no real need to force a trade that won't really help the team at this point.

[davearm2]

Fukudome's contract would be a pretty big hindrance IMO. Guys like him don't get $13M a year anymore.

 

The Cubs would probably have to include a bunch of cash just to get a mildly interesting prospect or two.

 

He has a career .775 OPS, but his OPS has improved each of the last 3 years and is sitting at .823 right now. He's not an offensive force by any means, but his .367 career OBP plus very good right field defense ought to garner a pretty decent level of interest.

Oh teams will be interested in his production. They just wouldn't be lining up to pay him $13M for it.

 

It would be interesting to see if Fukudome would pass through waivers unclaimed.

[lumafia]

Fukudome's contract would be a pretty big hindrance IMO. Guys like him don't get $13M a year anymore.

 

The Cubs would probably have to include a bunch of cash just to get a mildly interesting prospect or two.

 

I agree that teams aren't paying as much for a guy like him anymore, but there will be takers. 2 teams that immediately come to mind that would embrace Kosuke's are the Red Sox and the A's. The A's have been known to make a move or two that cost money when they know they have a legitimate shot. Their .641 OPS and .297 OBP out of the lead off spot could be a temptation given the fact that they are only 4 games out of 1st right now. It might be a month or so, but they could be looking for someone just like FUKU.

 

Another team is the Red Sox. They have the financial flexibility to take on additional payroll and they have a need to fill out their lineup. They have been decent out of the leadoff spot, but they want someone to get on more frequently than their leadoff hitters are now. Also, they are thin on production (combined .690 OPS out of CF & LF in 2010) and health in the corner outfield spots. The Sox would embrace his approach, protect him mightily in the lineup, and he would be a marketing tool for them in the northeast.

 

The Cubs have worked well with both teams in the past, and if the Cubs continue their slide, I would expect both of those teams to be legitimate candidates for Fuku's services.

[davearm2]

Fukudome's contract would be a pretty big hindrance IMO. Guys like him don't get $13M a year anymore.

 

The Cubs would probably have to include a bunch of cash just to get a mildly interesting prospect or two.

 

I agree that teams aren't paying as much for a guy like him anymore, but there will be takers. 2 teams that immediately come to mind that would embrace Kosuke's are the Red Sox and the A's. The A's have been known to make a move or two that cost money when they know they have a legitimate shot. Their .641 OPS and .297 OBP out of the lead off spot could be a temptation given the fact that they are only 4 games out of 1st right now. It might be a month or so, but they could be looking for someone just like FUKU.

 

Another team is the Red Sox. They have the financial flexibility to take on additional payroll and they have a need to fill out their lineup. They have been decent out of the leadoff spot, but they want someone to get on more frequently than their leadoff hitters are now. Also, they are thin on production (combined .690 OPS out of CF & LF in 2010) and health in the corner outfield spots. The Sox would embrace his approach, protect him mightily in the lineup, and he would be a marketing tool for them in the northeast.

 

The Cubs have worked well with both teams in the past, and if the Cubs continue their slide, I would expect both of those teams to be legitimate candidates for Fuku's services.

Do you think either of those teams would take on all of Fukudome's remaining contract and also give up a decent prospect or two?

[dew1679666265]

Do you think either of those teams would take on all of Fukudome's remaining contract and also give up a decent prospect or two?

 

Maybe not all, but they could pick up $8-10 of it and give us a decent prospect or two. I don't know that I'd pay more than half his contract, but if we can get a couple of decent to solid prospects, I'd be willing to pay up to $10 million or so of the roughly $20 mil left on his contract by the deadline.

[Guest]

The only way I'd eat a dollar of Kosuke's contract is if it allowed me to get a very good return. He's not overpaid.

[davearm2]

The only way I'd eat a dollar of Kosuke's contract is if it allowed me to get a very good return. He's not overpaid.

I'd say he is relative to what free agents have been getting the last few offseasons.

 

Would he get a $13M/yr deal if he was a FA right now?

[Elwood]

The A's have been known to make a move or two that cost money when they know they have a legitimate shot. Their .641 OPS and .297 OBP out of the lead off spot could be a temptation given the fact that they are only 4 games out of 1st right now. It might be a month or so, but they could be looking for someone just like FUKU.

 

 

Don't forget, they have Coco Crisp returning from the DL soon.

[jersey cubs fan]

The only way I'd eat a dollar of Kosuke's contract is if it allowed me to get a very good return. He's not overpaid.

I'd say he is relative to what free agents have been getting the last few offseasons.

 

Would he get a $13M/yr deal if he was a FA right now?

 

If anything, he's slightly overpaid. As a longtime anti-OBP team that struggled to take walks and score runs for years until changing things up in 2008, it would be a real shame to deal their best OBP guy (with no replacement). And it just makes it worse that they have benched their other top OBP guy for a catcher that probably should be out of the game.

[Rob]

The only way I'd eat a dollar of Kosuke's contract is if it allowed me to get a very good return. He's not overpaid.

I'd say he is relative to what free agents have been getting the last few offseasons.

 

Would he get a $13M/yr deal if he was a FA right now?

 

Don't forget, the teams that would be acquiring him are the ones who are looking to make it into (or further into) the postseason, making a marginal upgrade more valuable to them than it would be to other teams.

 

That said, if we're going to move him, I don't have a problem with us picking up the whole sum and getting back some real nice prospects. It's not like the window will be open next season, so the payroll wont be handicapping us from making the move that might put us over.

[Backtobanks]

MLBTR pooints out there's a market for DeJesus, so I would think that there would be a market for Fukudome if the Cubs eat some salary.

[Outshined_One]

As memory serves me, I don't think Fukudome would be arbitration-eligible after next season, despite having only four years of ML service time. I know that players signed out of Japan don't net draft pick compensation in their first contracts and I think it's because of the lack of arbitration eligibility. I could be wrong, though.

 

Regardless, what this means is that Fukudome's contract is more burdensome than other players simply because any team that trades for him won't even get draft picks if he bolts for free agency after 2011.

[jersey cubs fan]

As memory serves me, I don't think Fukudome would be arbitration-eligible after next season, despite having only four years of ML service time. I know that players signed out of Japan don't net draft pick compensation in their first contracts and I think it's because of the lack of arbitration eligibility. I could be wrong, though.

 

Regardless, what this means is that Fukudome's contract is more burdensome than other players simply because any team that trades for him won't even get draft picks if he bolts for free agency after 2011.

 

I thought the deal was part of the contract said they would not offer him arbitration after 4 years, effectively making him a free agent.

[KingCubsFan]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

[apete6]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

I agree. Forget even trading Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano. Just put them on waivers and hope someone picks up their contract ala the Alex Rios pickup by the White Sox.

 

Try and trade Lee and Lilly because they may have value as potential Type A free agents. If you can't get anything decent, hold on and offer them arbitration if they are Type A. Offer Lilly if he's type A or B.

 

If by the miracle of God, someone picks up Fukudome, Ramirez, and Z, you just saved yourself a hell of a lot of money. I would include Soriano, but as we all know, there is no one dumb enough to take that contract on.