Starting a Fire Sale

[dew1679666265]

Carl Crawford is a FA, Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson, maybe take a flier on a Brandon Webb. None of those guys are a must have and passing on all of them and starting the rebuilding process would be fine with me.

 

Crawford would be a nice move (and is a younger version of Kosuke), but Lee is old, Hudson has big injury questions and Webb may not be healthy/good next year. I don't want to give 3-4 year, big money deals to guys (like Lee and Hudson) who aren't likely to be productive for more than a year or two of those deals.

 

There are some nice additions we could make, but I don't see a way to make us contenders next season. Thus, I'd prefer to keep some of our underperformers and see if they can start performing up to par again and be worth something more than just salary relief.

 

More importantly, this $ could be used to invest heavily in the international market or next year's draft when we're sure to have a high pick as well as spending a ton of money to shore up the front office and maybe bring in someone who knows what the hell they are doing in building an organization. For example, do you think Andrew Friedmann from TB wouldn't leave for $3-5 million/year?

 

I could be wrong on this, but I don't think player payroll is tied to organizational hiring or draft picks/international signings. I think they come from different pots, but I could be wrong on that.

[dew1679666265]

Yes, I am saying that there is no chance of the Cubs ever trading Aramis, Z, Soriano, or Fukudome for any package of salary relief and/or prospects that will be better than just trying to get someone to take their salary for nothing right now.

 

I may be wrong, but that's what I believe.

 

I strongly disagree with you on Aramis, Z and Fukudome.

[apete6]

Yes, I am saying that there is no chance of the Cubs ever trading Aramis, Z, Soriano, or Fukudome for any package of salary relief and/or prospects that will be better than just trying to get someone to take their salary for nothing right now.

 

I may be wrong, but that's what I believe.

 

I strongly disagree with you on Aramis, Z and Fukudome.

 

I hope you are right or it will be a LONG next 2 years. Good discussion!

[apete6]

I could be wrong on this, but I don't think player payroll is tied to organizational hiring or draft picks/international signings. I think they come from different pots, but I could be wrong on that.

 

I'm sure they have a separate budget for both, but at the end of the day, it's all Ricketts' money and he can rob Peter to pay Paul as much as he wants.

[dew1679666265]

Yes, I am saying that there is no chance of the Cubs ever trading Aramis, Z, Soriano, or Fukudome for any package of salary relief and/or prospects that will be better than just trying to get someone to take their salary for nothing right now.

 

I may be wrong, but that's what I believe.

 

I strongly disagree with you on Aramis, Z and Fukudome.

 

I hope you are right or it will be a LONG next 2 years. Good discussion!

 

Very good discussion!

 

I expect the team to struggle this year and next, but I still think we can compete as soon as 2012 once a number of these contracts/dead money will be off the books and we have time to make some trades and get youngsters developed.

[dew1679666265]

I could be wrong on this, but I don't think player payroll is tied to organizational hiring or draft picks/international signings. I think they come from different pots, but I could be wrong on that.

 

I'm sure they have a separate budget for both, but at the end of the day, it's all Ricketts' money and he can rob Peter to pay Paul as much as he wants.

 

True, but I doubt he'd lessen the payroll to hire front office guys or bring in more international signees. The more casual fans than us (the vast majority of fans) would not take kindly to that.

[jersey cubs fan]

I could be wrong on this, but I don't think player payroll is tied to organizational hiring or draft picks/international signings. I think they come from different pots, but I could be wrong on that.

 

I'm sure they have a separate budget for both, but at the end of the day, it's all Ricketts' money and he can rob Peter to pay Paul as much as he wants.

 

True, but I doubt he'd lessen the payroll to hire front office guys or bring in more international signees. The more casual fans than us (the vast majority of fans) would not take kindly to that.

 

No, but he could choose to allocate less of the increase to payroll than would otherwise happen.

[dew1679666265]

No, but he could choose to allocate less of the increase to payroll than would otherwise happen.

 

Possible, but that has little to nothing to do with dumping Aramis, Z and Fukudome. If he dumps those three and saves all the money, but then doesn't put all of that back into payroll, casual fans will complain.

[KingCubsFan]

Kosuke is a right fielder who hits 10 HR's a year. He'd probably get something closer to 2/10.

 

And posts a near .400 OBP with excellent defense in right field. His slugging has also improved each year he's been in the majors and currently sits at .456. Teams value that.

His career slugging is .408, and his .456 slugging currently sits 14th among right fielders. While his .375 OBP is good, it's not good enough to overcome his lack of power at a position where teams typically look for it. And teams don't typically pay much of a premium for defense in right field. I'm not saying Fukudome isn't a useful player, but his worth on the current market is nowhere near his salary.

[davearm2]

Not really. Selling as low as they possibly could would be DFAing them and paying all of their salary for them to play for another team. Allowing another team to pick them (and all of their salary) up on waivers for nothing would essentially be a win for the Cubs.

 

If you believe that there is no point in time between now and the end of their contracts that you believe you could get prospects/players of value for them, then you're right. But if you believe that they could raise their value in a way that will make them attractive enough to other teams that the other teams are willing to give prospects/players for them, then you're selling low.

 

Basically, do you think this past offseason that the Cubs could have gotten a good deal for Aramis or Z? If so and now you're advocating waiving them for nothing, then you're advocating selling very low for them.

The only relevant consideration in the sell high/low discussion is what a player's value will be going forward. What it was in the past is irrelevant.

 

If a guy's value is half of what it was a year ago, it's still a "sell high" opportunity if next year it will be even lower.

[dew1679666265]

Kosuke is a right fielder who hits 10 HR's a year. He'd probably get something closer to 2/10.

 

And posts a near .400 OBP with excellent defense in right field. His slugging has also improved each year he's been in the majors and currently sits at .456. Teams value that.

His career slugging is .408, and his .456 slugging currently sits 14th among right fielders. While his .375 OBP is good, it's not good enough to overcome his lack of power at a position where teams typically look for it. And teams don't typically pay much of a premium for defense in right field. I'm not saying Fukudome isn't a useful player, but his worth on the current market is nowhere near his salary.

 

It depends on what a team values and needs. A team that has some power from second base or shortstop or catcher might be more willing to pay for on-base ability in right field. Likewise, a team that feels it needs to add some on-base skills at the top of the lineup and has an opening in right field will have more interest in Kosuke than most.

 

Remember, if we look to deal him between now and the deadline, we're not dealing with teams shaping their rosters. We're dealing with teams looking to plug holes and can tend to be more desperate. I can't say right now who in particular would be willing to pay the most, but Kosuke has abilities that teams value around the deadline.

[dew1679666265]

If a guy's value is half of what it was a year ago, it's still a "sell high" opportunity if next year it will be even lower.

 

Correct, but that's assuming Aramis won't hit better than he is now and that Z being consistently in the rotation won't pitch better than a 5-something ERA. I'm not taking that bet. If you think those two players especially will improve upon their performance to this point in the season, then trading them now is selling low – and very low.

 

As for Kosuke: he's productive and provides value to teams. The only question with him is money owed to him and whether teams will be willing to pay it. If that's the biggest concern, then keeping him until his there is less time/money left on his contract is a good thing. The only question is whether he'll fall off a cliff next season, and I don't see any reason to expect it.

[Backtobanks]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. Take a page of of Kenny Williams' book? The WS have one of the worst farm systems and he has traded all of his prospects for "young" players like Andruw Jones, Peavy, Pierre, Teahen, and Kotsay. :lol:

 

Did you even read what he said? Williams isn't all that great at his job, but he is smart about what KCF was talking about. Carlos Quentin being the most obvious example, although injuries seem to have kept him from being useful since 2008.

 

Well yeah, that's what he said, and even listed four guys that fit that mold.

 

Well the guys I listed average almost 32 years old and have a 2010 line of .228/.321/.371/.693. That certainly doesn't sound like "some underachieving/underutilized young players" to me and neither does it sound like guys I want to build a team around. BTW, I agree that Quentin was worth taking a chance on, but he's been terrible this year too.

[Guest]

The Cubs can't have a fire sale. 1) they have too many NTC, 2) Most the guys to be rid of aren't as valuable as the money they are owed and 3) the guys that will fetch good returns are the guys they should keep.

 

They (and we) are in for the perfect storm of crap created by their GM to keep his job after 2005 and 2006. It will take a Silva miracle to turn this franchise around.

[KingCubsFan]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. Take a page of of Kenny Williams' book? The WS have one of the worst farm systems and he has traded all of his prospects for "young" players like Andruw Jones, Peavy, Pierre, Teahen, and Kotsay. :lol:

 

Did you even read what he said? Williams isn't all that great at his job, but he is smart about what KCF was talking about. Carlos Quentin being the most obvious example, although injuries seem to have kept him from being useful since 2008.

 

Well yeah, that's what he said, and even listed four guys that fit that mold.

 

Well the guys I listed average almost 32 years old and have a 2010 line of .228/.321/.371/.693. That certainly doesn't sound like "some underachieving/underutilized young players" to me and neither does it sound like guys I want to build a team around. BTW, I agree that Quentin was worth taking a chance on, but he's been terrible this year too.

What about Quentin, Matt Thornton, Bobby Jenks, Sergio Santos, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Paul Konerko (maybe before Kenny's time)?

[A-Cal]

2016 Chicago Cubs - World Series Champions

[apete6]

2016 Chicago Cubs - World Series Champions

 

If you can guarantee that, sign me up!

[Backtobanks]

Pretty much every veteran on this team is overpaid (other than Byrd and Lilly), which makes sense considering when they were all signed. A "fire sale" would basically mean paying off half or more of their contracts and getting a few Hendry specials: high A/AA bullpen arms with the ability to throw in the mid-90's. In today's game, young players are a much more valuable asset than underachieving veterans. The best use of a fire sale would be to simply remove these players from the team so that players with more upside could get a chance, and save some money in the mean time. Hendry should take a page from Kenny Williams' book and go get some underachieving/underutilized young players and build from there. Guys like Alex Gordon, Stephen Drew, Cameron Maybin, Delmon Young, etc. are the type of players we should be targeting until most of these contracts are off the books in 2011. If you get lucky with a few, you've got some cost-effective players under control for a few years. If not, it's not a huge loss and you retool when Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez become free agents.

 

That has to be the funniest post I've read in a long time. Take a page of of Kenny Williams' book? The WS have one of the worst farm systems and he has traded all of his prospects for "young" players like Andruw Jones, Peavy, Pierre, Teahen, and Kotsay. :lol:

 

Did you even read what he said? Williams isn't all that great at his job, but he is smart about what KCF was talking about. Carlos Quentin being the most obvious example, although injuries seem to have kept him from being useful since 2008.

 

Well yeah, that's what he said, and even listed four guys that fit that mold.

 

Well the guys I listed average almost 32 years old and have a 2010 line of .228/.321/.371/.693. That certainly doesn't sound like "some underachieving/underutilized young players" to me and neither does it sound like guys I want to build a team around. BTW, I agree that Quentin was worth taking a chance on, but he's been terrible this year too.

What about Quentin, Matt Thornton, Bobby Jenks, Sergio Santos, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Paul Konerko (maybe before Kenny's time)?

 

Konerko was before Williams took over, Jenks and Santos were brought up from the minors. Danks and Floyd were acquired in a trade, but neither was underachieving or under utililized. Thornton and Quentin would fit the "underachieving/underutilized young player" description.

[dew1679666265]

Konerko was before Williams took over, Jenks and Santos were brought up from the minors. Danks and Floyd were acquired in a trade, but neither was underachieving or under utililized. Thornton and Quentin would fit the "underachieving/underutilized young player" description.

 

Bobby Jenks was originally in the Angels' organization and was waived because of underperformance and the Sox claimed him. He would qualify.

 

Santos was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks and bounced around the minors until the Sox picked him up, traded him to the Giants and then 11 days later re-acquired by Chicago (weird). He would also qualify, though he hasn't exactly had a long resume of success to this point.

[jersey cubs fan]

Konerko was before Williams took over, Jenks and Santos were brought up from the minors. Danks and Floyd were acquired in a trade, but neither was underachieving or under utililized. Thornton and Quentin would fit the "underachieving/underutilized young player" description.

 

Bobby Jenks was originally in the Angels' organization and was waived because of underperformance and the Sox claimed him. He would qualify.

 

Santos was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks and bounced around the minors until the Sox picked him up, traded him to the Giants and then 11 days later re-acquired by Chicago (weird). He would also qualify, though he hasn't exactly had a long resume of success to this point.

 

I don't see how they qualify. Jenks wasn't some underutilized stud who wasn't given a chance and the White Sox stole him.

 

Regardless, nobody needs to follow the White Sox model. The Quentin thing worked out nicely for a bit, but the team has been incredibly mediocre for a while now (although they have outperformed the Jim Hendry Cubs).

[dew1679666265]

I don't see how they qualify. Jenks wasn't some underutilized stud who wasn't given a chance and the White Sox stole him.

 

Less underutilized and more failed prospect. The Angels waived him and the White Sox saw something in him and took a chance. That's what I took KingCubsFan to mean.

 

Regardless, nobody needs to follow the White Sox model. The Quentin thing worked out nicely for a bit, but the team has been incredibly mediocre for a while now (although they have outperformed the Jim Hendry Cubs).

 

Simply because you take one good thing from a GM doesn't mean you're following his model. Kenny Williams, like Jim Hendry, has some strengths as a GM. Emulating the good things they do is a positive and doesn't mean that you're going to follow the entire model they lay out.

[Outshined_One]

I don't see how they qualify. Jenks wasn't some underutilized stud who wasn't given a chance and the White Sox stole him.

 

Less underutilized and more failed prospect. The Angels waived him and the White Sox saw something in him and took a chance. That's what I took KingCubsFan to mean.

 

I'd like to point out that Jenks was waived in part because he was nuttier than a bag of Snickers. The guy lit his pitching arm on fire for cripes' sake.

[dew1679666265]

I don't see how they qualify. Jenks wasn't some underutilized stud who wasn't given a chance and the White Sox stole him.

 

Less underutilized and more failed prospect. The Angels waived him and the White Sox saw something in him and took a chance. That's what I took KingCubsFan to mean.

 

I'd like to point out that Jenks was waived in part because he was nuttier than a bag of Snickers. The guy lit his pitching arm on fire for cripes' sake.

 

This is true. And I'm not really saying the Angels were wrong in letting him go, but Williams deserves credit for picking him up off the scrap heap and allowing him the opportunity to turn into something.

[NCCubFan]

2016 2015 Chicago Cubs - World Series Champions

Don't forget Back to the Future II told us that.

[Fro]

They (and we) are in for the perfect storm of crap created by their GM to keep his job after 2005 and 2006. It will take a Silva miracle to turn this franchise around.

 

Huh? Most of the contracts are all off the books after 2012. You just have to sign the right FA to go along with whoever the farm system produces.